Home Market Releases for April 3rd, 2018

April 3rd, 2018

It’s a short week for one reason: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which came out last week, but it is still scaring away top-notch releases. There are only a couple of first-run releases coming out this week, Father Figures and Insidious: The Last Key. However, there are also a few films in the main section that wouldn’t even be included in the secondary releases on a normal week. There are a trio of Pick of the Week contenders, including Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, but that’s a late review. The best of this week’s releases are Jane and My Hero Academia Season Two, Volume One. Both are absolutely worth picking up, but in the end, I went with My Hero Academia. More...

Home Market Releases for March 27th, 2018

March 27th, 2018

It’s a short week for one reason: Star Wars: The Last Jedi is coming out on DVD / Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD and no one really wants to deal with that competition. That’s not to say there are no other releases worth picking up. Last Men in Aleppo is an Oscar nominated documentary and worth picking up. In the end, The Last Jedi was the clear Pick of the Week winner. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

March 26th, 2018

Star Wars: The Last Jedi was the biggest box office hit of 2016, both domestically and worldwide. It also earned 91% positive reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore. It is also hated by a minority of very loud, very aggressive people. Are the majority right? Do the minority have a legitimate case to make? More...

Home Market Releases for March 13th, 2018

March 14th, 2018

It’s Oscar week on the home market with several Oscar nominees and winners. Many of these films, like Call Me by Your Name and I, Tonya, are contenders for Pick of the Week. The actual winner of this title is The Shape of Water on Blu-ray Combo Pack or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack. It’s not the biggest release on this week’s list, as that honor goes to Star Wars: The Last Jedi, but that’s only coming out on Video on Demand. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Bests Wrinkle in Time, in Disney vs. Disney Battle

March 11th, 2018

A Wrinkle in Time got out the gate a little more slowly than hoped for this weekend, and Disney is projecting an opening weekend of $33.3 million, as of Sunday morning. That’s actually in line with our prediction on Thursday of just under $35 million, but well below what pre-release interest in the film would have made seem possible. That relatively subdued debut left the door open for Black Panther, which will pick up another $41.1 million this weekend to top the chart, and continues breaking records. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars: And the Winner is... The Shape of Water for Best Picture

March 4th, 2018

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Tops $500 Million in Third Weekend

March 4th, 2018

Black Panther will add another $65.7 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. That’ll be the 3rd-best 3rd weekend in history, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. It also will make Panther the 3rd-fastest movie to $500 million at the domestic box office, behind Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. It continues to track extremely closely to Jurassic World, which finished its domestic run with $652 million. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations: Final Look

March 4th, 2018

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Panther’s $108-Million Weekend Sets Up $650-Million Domestic Run

February 25th, 2018

The party is just getting started for Black Panther. With Disney’s official weekend estimate in, it looks like the latest from the Marvel Universe is already just one day away from being the franchise’s highest-grossing movie for a film built around a single character, and it is on course to top The Avengers as the biggest Marvel movie of them all. That’s thanks to a projected $108 million weekend that sets some records of its own. More...

International Box Office: The Maze Runner is on a Marathon Pace with $35.5 million

February 7th, 2018

Maze Runner: The Death Cure remained in first place with $35.5 million in 80 markets for totals of $143.2 million internationally and $183.2 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Mexico, where it earned first place with $3.20 million. Its best market overall was China, where it added $5.17 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $38.67 million. More...

International Box Office: Death Can’t Stop The Maze Runner’s $62.6 million Weekend

February 1st, 2018

Maze Runner: The Death Cure jumped into first place on the international chart with $62.6 million in 70 markets for an early international total of $82.0 million. The film opened in first place in China with $22.80 million over the weekend for a total opening of $23.07 million. On the other hand, the film struggled in the U.K. earning third place with just $3.19 million in 507 theaters. By the end of the weekend, the studio’s share of the worldwide box office was over $40 million, which is fantastic for a film that cost $61 million to make. It should have no trouble breaking even early in its home market run, if not sooner. More...

International Box Office: Jumanji is King of the Market with $32.6 million

January 24th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle remained in first place with $32.6 million on 33,000 screens in 83 markets for totals of $450.8 million internationally and $767.3 million worldwide. Had the film earned half of that, it still would have been a financial success worthy of a sequel. China was the film’s biggest market, both of the weekend and overall, as it earned $7.71 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $66.50 million. The film will have no trouble getting to $800 million worldwide, probably by the end of this coming weekend, while $900 million isn’t completely out of the question. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations

January 23rd, 2018

The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Can’t Outshine Jumanji’s $19.51 million Weekend Haul

January 23rd, 2018

Nearly every film we talked about in our predictions beat expectations over the weekend. This includes Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned first place with $19.51 million. All three wide releases did better than expected, with 12 Strong leading the way with $15.82 million. The overall box office still fell 15% from last weekend to $135 million. A 15% drop-off for a post-holiday weekend isn’t bad. Compared to this weekend last year, 2018 was down by 7.0%, which isn’t good, but it could have been much worse. Year-to-date, 2018 still has a small lead of 2.9% or $20 million at $725 million to $704 million. Granted, it is still way too early for this to matter, but an early lead means you won’t need to fight back late in the year like we did last year. More...

2017 Box Office Totals: $11.09 billion Isn’t Enough

January 20th, 2018

NATO, the North American Theater Owners, have released their annual box office numbers, and 2017 had some mixed results. The total box office was down 2.55% to $11.09 billion, which is the third-biggest yearly box office total of all time, behind $11.12 billion earned in 2015 and $11.37 billion earned in 2016. Meanwhile, ticket prices rose 4% to $8.97. This means total attendance was 1.236 billion, the lowest since 1995. That is troubling, but not as apocalyptic as some have made it out to be, as it is only 2.7% lower than 2014’s attendance figure. Obviously, we would like to see increases in this figure every year, but we shouldn’t panic just yet. If 2018 bounces back, then we can still say the overall box office is healthy. If we see another 6-point drop in attendance in 2018, then we can panic. More...

International Box Office: Jumanji is Welcomed to First Place with $81.75 million

January 18th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle leaped into first place with $81.75 million on 33,000 screens in 83 markets for totals of $385.03 million internationally and $669.27 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $39.74 million on 20,000 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $40.23 million. Had the film only earned $385.03 million in total, it still would have been enough to to break even before the home market. The film will eventually hit $800 million worldwide, which is enough to cover its entire budget and the production budget of the inevitable sequel. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jumanji Nears $300 million after $35.18 million MLK Long Weekend

January 16th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues to surprise analysts earning $35.18 million over the MLK long weekend. At this point, I would be shocked if it didn’t finish with $350 million domestically, while I assume Sony has a planned trilogy in the works. The best “new” release of the week was The Post, which expanded into second place with $23.06 million, while the best truly new release of the week was The Commuter at $15.80 million. Overall, the box office fell 4.7% from last weekend, earning $165 million over the the three-day weekend. This was still 5.9% higher than the same weekend last year, and that’s the more important number. It is still very early in the year, extremely early, but 2018 does have a $27 million / 5.1% lead over 2017 at $553 million to $526 million. 2018 could lose that entire lead next weekend, but I chose to focus on the positive for now. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jumanji Rules MLK Weekend

January 14th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will come out an easy winner at the box office this MLK weekend. Over three days, the family adventure is headed for an estimated $27 million, for $283 million to date. With another $8 million or so on Monday, the film will finish the holiday on the threshold of $300 million domestically. Partly helped by the long weekend, it will record the 10th-best fourth weekend of all time—remarkable strength for a movie that ran the risk of being over-shadowed by The Last Jedi when it came out at Christmas. More...

Weekend Predictions: Paddington and Post take on Jumanji over MLK Long Weekend

January 11th, 2018

It is the first long weekend of 2018 and we have four films trying to take advantage of the MLK holiday. However, only Paddington 2 and The Post have a real shot at box office success. The Commuter’s buzz is so quiet that its box office chances have taken a real hit. Worse still, Sony’s treatment of Proud Mary is almost bizarre. I’ve seen limited releases with more marketing push than Proud Mary is getting. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’s legs will likely remain really long, helping it repeat as box office champion. More importantly, it should help the 2018 box office get a sizable win in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, there were seven films that earned more than $10 million over the long weekend, but only one film, Hidden Figures, earned more than $20 million. This year, not only will we match that number of $10 million films, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should top $30 million, while Paddington 2 and The Post should top $20 million. More...

2017 Awards Season: BAFTA Nominations

January 11th, 2018

The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out. More...

International Box Office: Ex Files Flies to Top Spot with $86.96 million

January 10th, 2018

Ex Files 3: Return of the Exes roared into first place with $86.96 million over the weekend for a 13-day total of $200.43 million. Its weekend total was double last weekend’s haul, while every other holdover at the top of the Chinese chart fell by more than 50%. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jumanji is Welcomed to the Top of the Chart with $37.23 million

January 9th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle held on strongly during the first weekend of 2018 earning $37.23 million. Insidious: The Last Key opened with $29.58 million, earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $165 million, which is 15% lower than last weekend; however, last weekend was a holiday weekend, so this is a better than expected hold. More importantly, this is 21% better than the same weekend last year. 2018 has a small lead over 2017 at 7.1% to $306 million to $285 million. It has been a while since we’ve seen a lead in the year-over-year comparison, but obviously it is far too early for this lead to be meaningful. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jumanji, Insidious Beat Star Wars

January 7th, 2018

The Last Jedi’s run at the top of the chart came to an abrupt end this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Disney’s big Christmas hit doesn’t seem to have much by way of legs going into January, as it falls by 55% from New Year’s weekend, the worst performance in the top 10. It will still pick up another $23.551 million or so, according to the studio, for a total of $572.5 million to date domestically. Its global total now stands at $1.2 billion, the 13th-best performance of all time. More...

Friday Estimates: Last Key Starts First with $12.74 million

January 6th, 2018

There will be a fifth installment in the Insidious franchise. That much is practically guaranteed after Friday’s debut. Insidious: The Last Key opened in first place with $12.74 million during its opening day. On the downside, its critical / popular reception has been mixed. Its reviews are only 25% positive and that won’t help it draw in new viewers. The film did earn a B minus from CinemaScore, which is better than a lot of horror films manage, so that could help. It will very likely slip to second place on Saturday, but the film will still top our prediction with between $25 million and $30 million. More...

Last Jedi ends Third Week with $4.3 million

January 5th, 2018

Star Wars: The Last Jedi finished its third week of release with $4.3 million on Thursday giving it a total of $548.9 million after three full weeks of release. Again, it fell faster than The Force Awakens (down 4% to $6.0 million) and Rogue One (down 8% to $3.9 million). However, The Last Jedi is still on pace to become one of the biggest domestic hits of all-time, so even if it really starts to collapse from now on, it will still be a massive hit. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: In Between a Rock and a Hard Place

January 4th, 2018

It’s a bad weekend to release a limited release, as the Golden Globes are given out on Sunday. There are still some good films that are trying to find an audience, including Blame, Bob le flambeur, and In Between. I doubt any will have breakout success, but all three deserve to find an audience, either in theaters or on the home market. More...

Weekend Predictions: Battle of Lasts, Key vs. Jedi, on First Weekend of 2018

January 4th, 2018

It is the first weekend of 2018 and Insidious: The Last Key is the only true wide release, although Molly’s Game is expanding semi-wide. The Last Key isn’t expected to compete with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle or Star Wars: The Last Jedi for first place, but if it can open with more than $15 million, it should at least help the year get off to a good start. This weekend last year, Underworld: Blood Wars opened in fourth place, while Hidden Figures expanded into first place. Both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Star Wars: The Last Jedi should top Hidden Figures and while 2018 won’t have the same depth, it should still earn a victory in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Last Jedi has a Wonderful Wednesday with $5.1 million

January 4th, 2018

Star Wars: The Last Jedi fell 35% from Tuesday to earn $5.1 million on Wednesday for a total of $544.5 million after 20 days of release. This is a sharper decline than The Force Awakens (down 22% to $6.2 million) and Rogue One (down 32% to $4.2 million). However, The Last Jedi remains almost exactly in the middle of those two films and it is maintaining its pace for $650 million to $700 million domestically. The film remains in sixth place on the all-time domestic chart and is closing ground on The Avengers for fifth place. More...

International Box Office: The Last Jedi Completes the Hat-Trick with $68.0 million

January 3rd, 2018

We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers on a daily basis, since it debuted, so talking about the weekend numbers would actually be behind our most recent report. Just a quick recap: The film earned $68.0 million in 54 markets for totals of $523.3 million internationally and $1.040 billion worldwide. The film is on pace for $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion worldwide, including China, where it opens on Friday. More...

Theater Averages: 2017 Ends on a Lucky Note, with Seven Members of the $10,000 Club

January 3rd, 2018

The Post remained the top film on the theater average chart for the second weekend is a row, earning an average of $62,342 in nine theaters and has earned nearly $2 million at the box office. It wasn’t the only film in the $10,000 club; in fact, there were seven such films. Second place went to Phantom Thread, with an average of $54,124 in four theaters. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was the best of the wide releases earning an average of $13,294. I, Tonya earned an average of $12,461 in 49 theaters during its fourth weekend of release. The overall number one film, The Last Jedi, was right behind with $12,410. Along With the Gods: The Two Worlds earned an average of $11,370 in 17 theaters, while the final film in the $10,000 club was Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool, which earned an average of $11,298 in four theaters. More...

Last Jedi Continues its Path to $600 million with $7.88 million on Tuesday

January 3rd, 2018

Star Wars: The Last Jedi remained in second place with $7.88 million on Tuesday for a total of $539.39 million after 19 days of release. By comparison, The Force Awakens earned $7.97 million and Rogue One earned $6.27 million during their respective 19th days of release. Using these two figures as guides, The Last Jedi remains on pace for $650 million to $700 million domestically. I think the lower figure is more likely than the higher figure, because Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has taken over first place, so theater owners will be slightly more likely to drop this film for new releases. That said, it is already the biggest domestic hit of 2017 and the sixth biggest hit on the all-time domestic chart. It should be able to grab third place by the end of its run. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Last Jedi and Jumanji Nearly Tie Over 4-day Weekend with $67 million

January 2nd, 2018

It was a really close weekend with Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both earning around $67 million during the four-day weekend. In fact, Jumanji beat The Last Jedi on New Year’s Day. Overall, the box office grew 11% from last weekend to $194 million, which was 4.3% more than the same weekend last year. It’s going to take a bit before we have the final numbers for all studios to compare how 2017 did compared to 2016, but it is safe to say 2016 will come out on top. More...

Last Jedi Starts the New Year with $14.5 million for $531.9 million

January 2nd, 2018

Star Wars: The Last Jedi started the year in second place with $14.5 million on New Year’s Day giving it a total of $531.86 million after 18 days of release. Due to misalignment in Holidays, we can’t really compare this film’s New Year’s Day results with the New Year’s Day results of The Force Awakens or Rogue One. By tomorrow we can get back to regular comparisons. The film is now the biggest 2017 domestic hit and is in eighth place on the all-time domestic chart. More...

Friday Estimates: Last Jedi Starts New Year’s Weekend with $19.06 million

December 30th, 2017

The last year to have Christmas and New Years Days on a Monday was 2006. Using that year as a guide and adjusting for changes in the market, specifically how much more front-loaded films tend to be, I was expecting a slight improvement for Star Wars: The Last Jedi from Thursday to Friday. That didn’t happen. In reality, the film lost 2.2% of its daily box office to hit $19.06 million on Friday. Granted, the film already has $483.76 million domestically and will likely hit first place for the year by the end of business today, surpassing Beauty and the Beast. Even with a slightly reduced weekend estimate of $54 million / $70 million, it is on pace for $600 million domestically with relative ease, making it a shoo-in for the sixth-highest-grossing domestic film of all time. More...

Last Jedi has $464.6 Million Two-Week Total, Including $19.4 Million Thursday

December 29th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi finished its second week at the box office with $19.4 million on Thursday giving it a total of $464.6 million after two weeks of release. By comparison, The Force Awakens earned $22.93 million for a total of $651.97 million, while Rogue One managed $16.72 million during this day in its run for a running tally of $375.38 million. If we used these two results as guides, then The Last Jedi is on pace for $650 million to $700 million. The film is still in second place on the 2017 domestic chart, but it won’t be there for long, as it is about two days away from overtaking Beauty and the Beast for top spot. More...

Weekend Predictions: The Last Jedi Looks to Top The Last Weekend of 2017

December 28th, 2017

As per usual, the weekend after Christmas has no new wide releases. This means there will be almost no changes in the top five from last weekend, meaning Star Wars: The Last Jedi will win with ease, while Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a comfortable second place. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing were neck-and-neck with just over $90 million combined. The Last Jedi and Jumanji should top that, giving 2017 one last win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Last Jedi nears $500 million, after taking $21.5 million on Wednesday

December 28th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $21.5 million on Wednesday lifting its running tally to $444.9 after just 13 days of release. By comparison, The Force Awakens earned $28.09 million and Rogue One pulled in $18.02 million, during their respective 13th day of release. At this pace, the film will will overtake Beauty and the Beast before the end of the year, becoming the biggest domestic hit of 2017. It will have no trouble hitting $600 million domestically, while $700 million isn’t out of reach. More...

International Box Office: The Last Jedi Repeats on Top with $75.1 million, China Dominates Chart

December 27th, 2017

We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers since it debuted, so there’s not a lot to talk about here. The film earned $75.1 million over the weekend for totals of $380.3 million internationally and $748.5 million worldwide. The film has yet to open in China, so this is not a complete picture of its box office strength. More...

Last Jedi Boxes the Competition into a Corner with $28.3 million

December 27th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s Boxing Day box office was impressive, as it grew 3% to $28.3 million for a 12-day total of $423.93 million. This is the second biggest domestic box office of the year, behind Beauty and the Beast and ahead of Wonder Woman. The misalignment in holidays means we still can’t really compare this result to either The Force Awakens or Rogue One, but that changes tomorrow. More...

Theater Averages: The Post Posts Top Marks with average of $58,446 / $84,673

December 27th, 2017

The Post dominated the Christmas weekend, earning an average of $58,446 in nine theaters, $84,673 if you include Christmas Day. The second best result of the four-day weekend was Phantom Thread, which earned an average of $31,818 in four theaters on Christmas Day alone. Last week’s winner, The Last Jedi, earned an average of $16,911 during its second weekend of release. The final two films in the $10,000 club were I, Tonya and Along With The Gods: The Two Worlds with averages of $11,169 and $10,914 respectively. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Abridged Edition: Star Wars Tops Estimates with $71.57 million / $99.03 million

December 26th, 2017

We still don’t have final numbers for the weekend or Christmas day, and because of the holidays, we likely won’t get them until January 2nd. This means were are stuck with weekend estimates for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and other films and no information for Monday. Star Wars: The Last Jedi outperformed estimates with $71.57 million for a four-day total of $99.03 million. Its 11-day total is $395.63 million and it will take just 12 days to get to $400 million. That’s not the record, but it is the third best result and that's still very impressive. More...

It was a Merry Christmas Day for Last Jedi with $27.5 million

December 26th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi had a big Christmas Day, earning $27.5 million for a total of $395.6 million. It is already in third place on the 2017 domestic chart. The film’s four-day weekend haul was $96.0 million, which is about 10% lower than predicted, but having Christmas Eve land on a Sunday was a complication and made predicting the movie’s box office numbers harder than usual. We can’t really compare this result to either The Force Awakens or Rogue One, because of the misalignment in holidays. In fact, it won’t be until we get Wednesday’s numbers that we will be able to judge The Last Jedi in comparison to the previous two Star Wars movies. More...

Weekend Estimates: Last Jedi Easily Holds Off Five Newcomers

December 24th, 2017

It’s a very crowded weekend, to say the least, in theaters, with five new wide releases already playing, and another joining the fray tomorrow. The Last Jedi is unperturbed by the competition, and will come out an easy winner, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $68.486 million projected 3-day gross takes it to $365 million after 10 days in release. Among its new records this weekend, it became the 3rd-fastest film to earn $350 million at the domestic box office, and will have the 3rd-best Christmas weekend. All this is in spite of the fact that takings are expected to be down significantly today as everyone prepares for, or starts celebrating, the holiday. More...

Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi Adds $24.68 Million to Top $300 Million

December 23rd, 2017

This weekend complicated, as Christmas Eve lands on a Sunday and Christmas Day technically makes it a four-day weekend. Although with so many schools closed for the holidays, you could almost call it a eleven-day weekend. This makes interpreting Friday’s box office numbers more difficult than usual. Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $24.68 million on Friday, putting its running tally to $321.28 million. It tied Jurassic World for second-fastest to $300 million at just 8 days. On the other hand, this is a little bit lower than our predictions. It still has a real shot at over $100 million during the four-day weekend, but it could have to wait until Tuesday to get to $400 million. More...

Last Jedi Finishes Week in First Place with $17.8 million on Thursday

December 22nd, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi bounced back 5% from Wednesday, earning $17.8 million on Thursday for a week-long total of $296.5 million. It is impossible to compare the film to The Force Awakens, as the seventh day in that film’s run was Christmas Eve and it fell 28% as a result. Rogue One grew a lot more, up 12% to $16.7 million. I was expecting the film to bounce back more than this. That said, it is already in seventh place on the 2017 domestic chart and will be in fourth place by the end of the weekend. Add in Christmas and it will be at over $500 million by the end of the year. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Far From Perfect

December 21st, 2017

This is technically Christmas Weekend, so it should come as no surprised that there are a lot of movies vying for that lucrative Christmas family audience. Two of them, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, opened yesterday, and we’ve already talked about how well they did on their opening day. On Friday, they will be joined by Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, none of which are earning good reviews and only one of which is expected to be a box office hit. This should leave Star Wars: The Last Jedi on top of the chart with room to spare. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the box office, while Sing was the only release that was a major hit. More...

Jedi Defeats Jumanji $16.9 million to $7.2 million on Wednesday

December 21st, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi had to deal with competition for the first time in its run, as both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman debuted in theaters on Wednesday. It didn’t have much of an effect. The Last Jedi earned $16.9 million yesterday for a six-day total of $278.8 million domestically. This was only the 32nd-biggest Wednesday ever, although 12th-biggest for a film not opening on that day. The film fell 17% from Tuesday, compared to a 2% gain by The Force Awakens and a 15% drop by Rogue One. It overtook Despicable Me 3 for seventh place on the 2017 domestic chart and it is eyeing Thor: Ragnarok for sixth place. It won’t get there tomorrow. It will certainly get there sometime on Friday. More...

Contest: Last Chance to Win: Winning Announcement

December 21st, 2017

The winners of our Last Chance to Win contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Predictions: Jumanji Takes on Jedi

December 20th, 2017

Five films are opening wide this week, two of which, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, debut on Wednesday. We will have full predictions at the usual time, but we should at least discuss these two films before everyone has a chance to see them. More...

International Box Office: The Last Jedi Dominates with $230.0 million, but Wasn’t the Only Release

December 20th, 2017

We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers since it debuted, so there’s not a lot to talk about here. The film dominated the international chart with $230.0 million in 54 markets during its first weekend of release, while its worldwide opening was $450.0 million. However, it wasn’t the only film at the international box office. More...

Last Jedi Earns $20.3 million on Tuesday

December 20th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $20.3 million on Tuesday to push its running tally to $261.9 million after just five days of release. It remains in eighth place on the 2017 chart, but it will top Despicable Me 3 for seventh place sometime today (possibly by the time you read this, in fact). Compared to Monday, the film was down 6%, which is a slightly better than the 7% drop The Force Awakens had during this point in its run. On a side note, Rogue One also fell at this point in its run, but by a mere 0.07%. More...

Theater Averages: Last Jedi Dethrones Beauty and the Beast $51,987 to $41,508

December 19th, 2017

The Last Jedi became the biggest wide release of the year on the theater average chart with $51,987, overtaking the previous leader, Beauty and the Beast, which had an opening weekend average of $41,508. Last week’s number one film, I, Tonya was pushed into second place with an average of $34,256 in five theaters. The film clearly has more room to grow. Call Me by Your Name was well behind with an average of $16,398 in 30 theaters. There were two more holdovers in the $10,000 club: The Shape of Water at $10,828 in 158 threatres and Darkest Hour at $10,090 in 84. More...

Last Jedi Pulls in $21.6 million on Monday, for $241.6 million Four-Day Total

December 19th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $21.6 million on Monday for a four-day total of $241.6 million. This represents a 58% decline from Sunday, which is steeper decline than both Rogue One (53%) and The Force Awakens (34%). However, this is not reason to panic, as The Last Jedi doesn’t have nearly as many schools closed for holidays as the other films had. Yesterday, only 31% of schools were closed, compared to 48% during the same point in Rogue One’s run and a whopping 77% for The Force Awakens. We will continue to track numbers throughout the week and I suspect The Last Jedi will have better holds from now on. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Last Jedi Tops Expectations with $220.01 million, Ferdinand is a Distant Second Place

December 19th, 2017

We already discussed Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s incredible debut yesterday, but there were other films that were in theaters over the weekend. The Last Jedi earned nearly 80% of the total weekend box office, so the rest of the box office had to settle for the leftovers. Ferdinand was a distant second with just $13.40 million, which is lower than our low expectations. Overall, the box office more than tripled from last week hitting $278 million. More importantly, it rose by 31% when compared to this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 cut 2016’s lead by nearly $100 million in just one week. Granted, 2017 is still behind by $320 million or 3.0% at $10.10 billion to $10.42 billion. However, I just wanted 2017 to cut the lead to $250 million and that looks a lot more likely now than it did even a month ago. More...

Early Weekend Wrap-Up: Last Jedi Defeats Competition / Last Year with $220.01 million

December 18th, 2017

The Last Jedi was expected to dominate the weekend box office. In fact, we predicted it had 50/50 chance to earn more than the entire box office earned this weekend last year. It managed that feat, with about $10 million to spare, earning $220.01 million. This is the second-best opening weekend of all time, behind only The Force Awakens and was only 11% below the record-setting debut. The good news continues, as the two films also earned similar reviews and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so The Last Jedi should earn similar legs. If this is true, then it will pull in over $800 million domestically. More...

Analysis: How Will Disney’s Acquisition of Fox Studios Affect the Industry?

December 17th, 2017

It was announced last week that Disney bought Fox Studios. To be more specific, they bought TV and movie production, cable channels, and the back catalog, but not Fox News, Fox Sports, or the local Fox TV stations. A lot of people have wondered what this will do to the industry. In my opinion, a lot of people have reacted in a disproportionately negative way. I will look at some of the issues that have been brought up, starting with... More...

Weekend Estimates: Last Jedi Set for $220 Million Domestic Debut

December 17th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi will earn $220 million at the domestic box office this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. After starting out with the second-biggest day of all time on Friday (a monstrous $104.787 million, including $45 million in Thursday previews), the film looks to be holding on well through the weekend. Saturday’s estimate is $64 million, off 39% from Friday, compared to The Force Awakens’ decline of 43% on its second day. Disney is projecting a decline of 20% on Sunday, while Awakens dropped 11%, which suggests caution on their part, and the possibility of a final opening weekend a little higher than their current projection. More...

Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi Tops Tracking with $104.78 million Opening Day

December 16th, 2017

The Last Jedi topped last night’s estimate, earning $104.78 million on Friday. It is only the second film to reach the century mark during its opening day. It is still 12% lower than the $119 million The Force Awakens opened with, but if it has the same legs, it will earn $218 million during its opening weekend. The reviews are practically identical and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so having similar legs is more likely. Sequels usually have shorter legs, but The Last Jedi had better growth from Thursday previews to Friday’s numbers, so this could be a good omen. Maybe it will earn $220 million during its opening weekend. More...

Early Friday Estimates Update: The Last Jedi Tracking Ticks Higher now at North of $100 million Opening Day

December 15th, 2017

Disney is really on top of the The Last Jedi hype train sending updated tracking of its opening day. Instead of aiming for $94 million to $99 million, the studio is aiming for $99 million to $104 million, putting on pace to be only the second film to earn $100 million during its opening day. Furthermore, CinemaScore released their final rating and it was a solid A, exactly what the reviews would suggest. The studio expects the film to make $205 million to $215 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our prediction that I’m happy. More...

Early Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi on Track for Nearly $100 million Opening Day

December 15th, 2017

Disney just sent out updated tracking for The Last Jedi’s opening Friday. The studio expects the film to earn in the mid- to high-$90 million range, which puts it on pace for approximately $200 million. If the film doesn’t get to $200 million over the weekend, then it will be more front-loaded than we anticipated and more front-loaded than the reviews would suggest. We will keep you posted as more numbers come in. More...

International Box Office: The Last Jedi Two-Day Total hits $60.8 million

December 15th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened in another 34 markets on Thursday, helping it reach $60.8 million internationally after just two days of release. At the same point in its run, The Force Awakens had $72.7 million, while Rogue One had $37 million. The Last Jedi is slightly closer to the high end rather than the low end, but not by enough that we need to adjust our prediction. More...

Thursday Night Previews: The Last Jedi Earns Second-Best Previews with $45 million - Updated with Ferdinand

December 15th, 2017

We expect Star Wars: The Last Jedi to have an opening weekend box office total almost exactly in the middle of The Force Awakens and Rogue One. Since those two films earned $57 million and $29 million respectively during their previews, The Last Jedi would need $43 million to be on target. According to Disney it pulled in $45 million last night, making it the second-best Thursday preview of all time. (The Force Awakens is number one, while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II was pushed into third place with $43.5 million.) That’s not a lot above where we needed it, but does make $210 million for the weekend more likely. Additionally, the reviews remain impressive at 93% positive, while the average score given by the critics so far is 8.2 out of 10. There were some grumblings that the audiences were less impressed; however, this appears to be internet buzz and not reflective of the real world. We don’t have the full ComScore grade yet, but they reported 90% positive results last night, as well as 82% in the “Definitely recommend” category. That’s simply fantastic. We will have a better picture by this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates arrive and we can compare legs with the previous two Star Wars films. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Birdboy and the Forgotten Limited Releases

December 15th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens in theaters today and that’s scaring away all of the competition. There’s barely more than a dozen films we have release dates for, and none of them are earning serious buzz. If we limited ourselves to films with 10 or more reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, then this week’s list would be embarrassingly short. The best film on this week’s list is Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, but it is an foreign animated movie, so I’m not expecting much at the box office. More...

International Box Office: First Numbers for Last Jedi: $5.30 million Australian Debut

December 14th, 2017

The first box office numbers for Star Wars: The Last Jedi were released and it earned $5.30 million in Australia. This was $7.06 million in local currency, which is almost exactly in the middle of the local currency debuts for The Force Awakens ($9.45 million) and Rogue One ($4.78 million). It was short of exactly in the middle by less than 1%, which suggests an opening here of just over $200 million and that’s close enough to our prediction that I don’t feel the need to make a change there. Of course, that could change once we see the preview numbers later today. More...

Contest: Last Chance to Win - Last Minute Reminder

December 14th, 2017

Our final box office prediction contest closes in less than 24 hours, so I just wanted to give a last-minute warning to our readers so they all have a chance to enter. There are lots of prizes, including three copies of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray. You can go here to read the full rules, or click here to send in your prediction for Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s opening three-day weekend.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Last Jedi Goes up Against Rogue and Awakens

December 14th, 2017

2017 is behind 2016’s pace by over $400 million and and this weekend is the last chance it has to cut that deficit by any real margin. This weekend, Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts and it is practically a guaranteed monster hit. Rogue One made just over $400 million in the 2016 calendar year, while The Force Awakens earned just over $650 million. The Last Jedi is widely expected to earn somewhere in-between those results. In the meantime, there is one other wide release, Ferdinand, which is the textbook definition of counter-programming. The studio is just hoping it doesn’t get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, the total box office was $211.57 million. I give The Last Jedi about a 50/50 chance of topping that by itself. More...

Weekend Preview: Jedi Will be the Last Film to Earn Top Spot in 2017

December 12th, 2017

First a quick note, this is a weekend preview, not weekend predictions, because I’m looking more at the big picture and less at the actual weekend numbers. Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens this weekend, although if you are part of our international readership, it might have already opened where you live. We will be going over its daily results as soon as they start coming in. In the meantime, I’m a little more bullish than I was last week, as the reviews finally started coming in. The film’s Tomatometer Score is an impressive 93% positive with an average score of 8.3 out of 10. This is actually on par with or better than some Awards Season players and it is stellar for a blockbuster. The film is widely expected to fit somewhere between The Force Awakens and Rogue One and with a lot of people saying this is the best Star Wars film since The Empire Strikes Back, the higher end appears to be more likely than the lower end. Previously, $200 million was the target for the film’s opening weekend, but now $210 million to $225 million is within reach. Furthermore, it is expected to top that during its opening weekend internationally leaving the film with a slim chance at $500 million worldwide. On the downside, the film likely cost that much to make and advertise, so it needs to be a $1 billion hit worldwide to break even in a timely fashion. Fortunately, no one really thinks that will be a problem. In fact, a lot of people are assuming the film will earn $1 billion internationally, while most won't be shocked if it reaches $2 billion worldwide. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Continues its Conquest with $18.45 million

December 12th, 2017

It was a good weekend at the box office, relatively speaking, as most films in the top five beat expectations. Granted, this was mostly by tiny amounts, but it added up. We still fell 20% compared to last week to $84 million. This is 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year and we were expecting a similarly close loss, so this is a surprise victory. The year-over-year numbers are almost identical to last week, with this year down by 4.1% or $420 million when compared to last year. Right now 2017 has pulled in $9.79 billion, while 2016 had a running tally of $10.21 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Disaster Artist Hits, Just Getting Started Misses

December 10th, 2017

Coco remains the number one movie at the box office this weekend by a considerable margin, mainly due to a lack of serious competition from new releases. Disney’s animated adventure will gross about $18.3 million this weekend, for a domestic total of $135.5 million. The film will also pile up another $55.3 million internationally, taking its worldwide cume to $389.5 million. It still has some big openings to come, including Brazil, Korea, the UK, and Japan in January, so it has some way to go, although its progress will be eclipsed by The Last Jedi for the next few weeks. More...

Friday Estimates: Coco Clings to the Top, Disaster Artist Achieves a Spot in the Top Five

December 9th, 2017

Coco surprised no one by earning first place on Friday. It earned $4.27 million, giving it a running tally of $121.48 million after 17 days of release and putting it on pace for $19 million over the weekend. Good news: This is a little better than expected. Bad news: Next weekend could be a mess, as the film will not only have to deal with monster competition, but direct competition as well. If it can avoid being demolished at the box office next weekend, then it will stick around in the top ten for the rest of the year. Even if if does get demolished, it still has a shot at $200 million domestically, but it will be close. More...

Contest: Last Chance to Win

December 8th, 2017

This is the last box office prediction contest we will ever hold, so it is fitting we are using what should be the biggest box office hit of the year as the target film. Star Wars: The Last Jedi is the only real choice for target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final copy of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray.

Furthermore, since this is the last contest we will be holding, I’ll be giving away a couple of other Frankenprizes to randomly selected entrants. There will be at least two additional prizes to hand out, more if I find more bubble envelopes. I plan on using all of them that I have, making this the biggest box office contest we’ve held. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

2017 Preview: December

December 1st, 2017

The box office was mostly as expected during November. Granted, Thor: Ragnarok over-performed and Justice League underperformed, but overall there were no real surprises. This means the month started slow, but we got a couple of wins in the end and that bodes well going into the final month of the year. That said, December is a weird month. There are five weekends, but only seven films that I’m sure are opening truly wide. Additionally, five of those seven films are opening Christmas weekend. I’ve never seen a month this lop-sided. There are no real wide releases the first two weeks of the month, so we will likely start slow again, but when The Last Jedi debuts, we should see explosive growth at the box office. It will open with more than any film last December made and that should help 2017 cut into 2016’s lead. 2017 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but the month could do well enough to cut 2016’s lead to under $250 million. That’s my goal. If that happens, I will be happy. More...

Contest: Cuckoo for Coco: Winning Announcement

November 29th, 2017

The winners of our Cuckoo for Coco contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Coco’s opening weekend were... More...

Star Wars: The Last Jedi Trailer

October 10th, 2017

Sci-fi adventure starring Daisy Ridley, Oscar Isaac, John Boyega, Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, and Adam Driver opens December 15 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Star Wars: The Last Jedi Trailer

April 18th, 2017

Sci-fi adventure starring Daisy Ridley, Oscar Isaac, and John Boyega, directed by Rian Johnson, opens December 15 ... Full Movie Details. More...