Weekend predictions: Clayface has the edge, but You Can See Everything could pull off a surprise this weekend

October 23, 2026

Four films open this weekend, but the fight for first place may come down to a battle between a newcomer and a documentary playing in its second week. Clayface, Warner Bros.’ R-rated DC body-horror film, is expected to open with about $24.7 million, per our model’s Friday-morning prediction. But A24 is expanding You Can See Everything from 855 theaters to 2,655, and our model has it rising 42% to $22.2 million, close enough that a surprise is a real possibility. Laika’s Wildwood should take third with about $11.5 million, just ahead of last weekend’s winner, Street Fighter.

The case for a You Can See Everything win comes from its weekday performance. It took about $2.6 million on each of Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, and $2.2 million on Thursday, out-grossing Street Fighter on three of the four days from less than a quarter of the theaters. Its Monday was 53% of its Sunday; Street Fighter’s was 27%. That is the pattern of a film that audiences are recommending to each other. The case against is history. Borat expanded from 837 theaters to 2,566 in its second weekend in 2006, almost exactly the same jump, and rose only 7%. To overtake Clayface, You Can See Everything will need to grow by close to 60%.

Warner Bros. opens Clayface in 3,458 theaters. James Watkins directs Tom Rhys Harries as Matt Hagen, a fading actor who injects himself with an experimental compound and finds he can reshape his face and body at will.

The comparable films, mostly comic-book adaptations, give a median opening of $73.6 million, from Superman at $125.0 million down to Blue Beetle at $25.0 million, with Joker, the closest in tone, at $96.2 million. Clayface is a smaller proposition: it opens in about 700 fewer theaters than those films, and tracking is running well below them. That brings the baseline to $24.9 million, more than twice what Watkins’s Speak No Evil managed in 2024.

Thursday previews came in at $3.5 million, exactly what Iron Lung took in January before opening to $18.2 million, and a shade below Other Mommy, which turned $3.6 million into $27.8 million this month. Across ten recent horror and genre releases, the median multiplier of 7.05 points to $24.7 million. The two methods are within 2% of each other, and our prediction is $24.7 million.

Fathom Entertainment opens Wildwood in 2,906 theaters, the first Laika film since 2019. Travis Knight directs the stop-motion adaptation of Colin Meloy’s novel, about a girl who follows the crows that kidnapped her baby brother into an enchanted forest, with Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali and Angela Bassett among the voice cast.

Laika’s last three films opened between $5.9 million, for Missing Link, and $17.3 million, for The Boxtrolls, with Knight’s Kubo and the Two Strings in the middle at $12.6 million. All three predate the pandemic, so their median is discounted to present-day attendance; with fewer theaters and tracking 17% ahead, the baseline is $10.7 million.

Previews of $1.0 million matched GOAT and The Sheep Detectives, which opened to $27.2 million and $15.1 million. Family films lean on the weekend daytime shows, so their multipliers run high, and the median of 11.69 across recent animated and family releases gives $11.7 million. Our prediction is $11.5 million, leaning toward the previews.

Black Bear Pictures opens Wicker in 1,471 theaters. Eleanor Wilson and Alex Huston Fischer direct Olivia Colman as a woman who asks the village basket weaver to make her a husband out of wicker.

Thursday previews came in at $620,000, between The Social Reckoning, which took $650,000 and opened to $5.0 million, and Buddy, which turned $527,000 into $5.5 million. The median multiplier of 8.89 across recent adult-oriented releases gives about $5.5 million, which is our prediction, and fifth place.

Sony opens Klara and the Sun in 880 theaters. Taika Waititi directs Jenna Ortega as Klara, a solar-powered companion robot bought to keep a sick girl company, in an adaptation of Kazuo Ishiguro’s 2021 novel.

Recent literary science fiction and adult dramas give a median opening of $9.3 million, among them Where the Crawdads Sing at $17.3 million and Ortega’s Death of a Unicorn at $5.8 million. With about a quarter of their theaters, the baseline is $4.9 million.

The previews tell a very different story. Klara and the Sun took just $85,000 on Thursday, less than $100 a theater and well below The Apprentice and She Said, which took $150,000 and $160,000 and opened to $1.6 million and $2.2 million. The median multiplier of 10.75 gives $914,000. The gap between the two figures is the widest of the weekend, and our prediction of $1.7 million sits much closer to the previews. An older audience that skips Thursday nights could lift it, but Ortega’s fans are young, and a weak Thursday is harder to explain away. Poor reviews also suggest it won’t benefit much from word of mouth.

Here’s how the model thinks the full top ten will shape up:

Among the holdovers, Street Fighter should fall 64% to $11.0 million, a steep second weekend that reflects how much of its audience turned out on opening night. Other Mommy is expected to ease 48% to $4.2 million, and Whalefall and Sense and Sensibility should each lose about half their audience, to $3.8 million and $3.5 million. Verity should hold best of the group, down 41% to $3.6 million.

Tenth place should need about $3.0 million, which is what Resident Evil is expected to take, down 45%. That pushes Heart of the Beast out of the top ten, and leaves Klara and the Sun well short of it.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months, and our weekly subscription option puts you first in line for our detailed weekend predictions on Friday morning.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Street Fighter fends off Clayface to remain widest release in its second frame

October 22, 2026

Newcomer Street Fighter landed atop last weekend’s box office chart, punching its way to more than $30 million in its opening weekend from 3,575 locations. Through six days of release, the film has amassed just over $37 million domestically. Finishing in second place was fellow newcomer You Can See Everything, which earned a solid $15.6 million from just 855 theaters, translating to an impressive per-theater average of $18,247. A24 is capitalizing on that, expanding the documentary by 1,800 theaters to 2,655. This weekend ushers in another wave of fresh releases, including the debut of Clayface.

Clayface centers on a fading B-movie actor who, desperate to reclaim the spotlight in an industry that has long since moved on, turns to an experimental substance rumored to restore youth, charisma, and career momentum. Hoping for a second chance at stardom, he injects himself with the mysterious compound, only to discover that its effects are far more dramatic than advertised. As his body begins to change, he gains the extraordinary ability to reshape his face and form at will, molding himself like living clay. What initially seems like the perfect tool for reinvention soon spirals into a grotesque nightmare, forcing him to confront the physical and psychological consequences of becoming something no longer entirely human. The film stars Tom Rhys Harries as Matt Hagen, better known as Clayface, alongside Naomi Ackie and Max Minghella. It arrives in 3,458 movie houses.

Beginning its run in 2,906 theaters this weekend is the Travis Knight-directed Wildwood. The movie follows Prue McKeel, a headstrong teenager who ventures into a hidden enchanted forest after her baby brother is abducted by a murder of crows. Joined by her loyal classmate Curtis, she must navigate a world of talking animals, outlaws, and rival factions to rescue him and protect Wildwood’s future. It features an extensive voice cast including Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, along with a host of others.

Opening in 1,471 theaters this weekend is the fantasy comedy Wicker. Set in a medieval village, the film centers on a woman who asks a basket weaver to create a husband out of wicker. When the figure unexpectedly comes to life, the event sends shockwaves through the community and disrupts long-standing social conventions. Olivia Colman, Alexander Skarsgård, Peter Dinklage, and Elizabeth Debicki headline the cast.

Klara and the Sun, a sci-fi drama directed by Taika Waititi, opens in 880 theaters. Set in a dystopian future where technological advances in genetic engineering have divided humans into strict, isolated social classes, an obsolete companion android named Klara tries to bond with Josie, a sick girl for whom she was purchased. Jenna Ortega stars.

Rounding out the top five this weekend are Street Fighter, heading into its sophomore frame while retaining its full opening-theater count of 3,575 locations. Also holding steady is Whalefall, which remains in 3,065 theaters. Finally, Other Mommy sheds 579 locations this weekend, though it will still be playing widely in 2,791 locations.

Theater counts for October 23

Theater counts for October 30

Weekend projections: Street Fighter solid and You Can See Everything stuns

October 18, 2026

Street Fighter will take $31.0 million from 3,575 theaters this weekend, according to Paramount’s Sunday-morning projection, exactly the figure our model published on Friday morning. The story of the weekend, though, is You Can See Everything. A24 projects $15.0 million for its documentary about Elizabeth Holmes, about $17,500 per theater from just 855 screens, comfortably second and 5% ahead of our prediction.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

You Can See Everything took $5.5 million on Friday, $1.75 million of it from Thursday previews, and Saturday is estimated at $5.2 million, down only 6%. Without the previews, that is a 37% rise from Friday to Saturday, a clear sign of word-of-mouth at work. The projected weekend works out at 2.71 times Friday, higher than any of the comparable films bar “Wuthering Heights”, and well above the $13.2 million the model gave on Saturday morning. Thursday’s packed screenings, in other words, were the start of the audience, not the whole of it.

A24’s exit polls point the same way: 90% of those leaving the theater said they would definitely recommend the film, and more than 80% said it was better than they had expected. The audience is young for a documentary, with 70% under 35 and a 55/45 split between men and women. The reviews are exceptional, too—99% on Rotten Tomatoes, 98 on Metacritic, and 4.8 on Letterboxd, which A24 says is the highest score ever recorded there. Leaving aside concert films, this would be the biggest opening from fewer than 1,000 theaters since Borat in 2006, and the biggest for a documentary since Fahrenheit 9/11 in 2004.

Street Fighter fell 17% on Saturday and is expected to fall a further 33% on Sunday, an ordinary pattern for an action opening, and its projected $31.0 million would be 2.38 times its Friday gross, in line with recent comparable films. It is enjoying a solid start, though some way short of the $37.6 million its comparables pointed to before previews came in.

Abroad, the film is expected to open to $20.1 million from 65 markets, for a worldwide start of $51.1 million. It is on course for No. 1 in the UK with $3.3 million, in Mexico with $1.8 million and in Australia with $1.6 million, but only fifth in Japan, where the games began, with $875,000, and eighth in Korea. It is the first release under Legendary’s new global distribution deal with Paramount.

The domestic audience is 69% male, and older than is usual for a video game adaptation: 41% are 35 or over, which suggests that many of those who grew up on Street Fighter II in the 1990s are turning out. The film is doing best in the West and the South.

The other two openers are both below the Friday-morning figures, though ahead of where they stood on Saturday. Whalefall should take $8.0 million and fourth place, 21% below our prediction but above the $7.4 million the model gave on Saturday. It should add $9.5 million from 51 international markets, led by Mexico with $0.8 million, for a global opening of $17.5 million. The audience is young, with 64% under 35, and gave it a B CinemaScore, a middling grade that points to a short run. Focus projects $7.25 million for Sense and Sensibility, up from its own $6.7 million on Saturday morning and 23% below our prediction. The film opened in the UK four weeks ago and should have $7.7 million there by the end of the weekend, in line with Where the Crawdads Sing; with 15 new markets this weekend, led by Australia at $0.8 million, it should reach $11.3 million internationally and $18.5 million worldwide.

Other Mommy is expected to drop 70% in its second weekend to $8.35 million, which is still enough for third place. That is 27% below the model, and a steep fall even by the standards of horror, though better than the $7.85 million Universal projected on Saturday. The film should reach $44.9 million domestically by the end of Sunday. It should hold up better abroad, down 56% to $9.6 million from 64 markets, with new openings in France ($1.2 million) and Belgium, for $33.9 million internationally and $78.8 million worldwide.

Verity is projected at $6.2 million, down 48% and 11% below the model, for a domestic total of $66.1 million. It should hold better abroad, down 40% to $11.4 million from 78 markets, and stay No. 1 in Germany, where it is down just 27%. That would take it to $79.2 million internationally and $145.3 million worldwide. Resident Evil should take $5.5 million, down 36% and close to the model, for $148.5 million, and Heart of the Beast $4.8 million, down 35% and 4% ahead of the model, for $58.3 million. Abroad, Resident Evil is expected to add $17.1 million, down 36%, for $212.7 million internationally and $361.1 million worldwide; China remains its biggest market, at $56 million.

Jailer 2 should take $3.3 million for ninth place, and $5.3 million since opening on Thursday. Forgotten Island should take tenth with $2.25 million, down 52% and right on the model, for $35.1 million domestically. It is set to open second in the UK, behind Street Fighter, with $1.7 million, part of a $3.9 million international weekend that would take it to $25.2 million abroad and $60.3 million worldwide. France follows on Wednesday. The restoration of Ken Russell’s The Devils should just miss the top ten, with $1.64 million from 350 theaters, ahead of The Social Reckoning at $1.55 million, down 69%. Reckoning should reach $6.0 million from 31 international markets, with Brazil and Mexico to come on Thursday. Further down the chart, The Odyssey is expected to add $3.9 million abroad, for $1.164 billion internationally and $1.789 billion worldwide. In China it has passed the original run of Interstellar to become Christopher Nolan’s biggest first-run release there. Spider-Man: Brand New Day should reach $2.517 billion worldwide by the end of the weekend, $1.558 billion of it from international markets.

The top ten is on course for 92% of the model’s Friday-morning figures, with the shortfall from Other Mommy, Whalefall and Sense and Sensibility only partly offset by You Can See Everything. The top ten should total $91.7 million, up 19% on last weekend and 50% ahead of the same weekend in 2025. Actuals follow on Monday.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the week, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months, and our weekly subscription option puts you first in line for our detailed weekend predictions on Friday morning.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend update: Street Fighter remains on course for $31 million, while You Can See Everything lands second

October 17, 2026

Street Fighter took $13.0 million on Friday, and Paramount is projecting $31.0 million for the weekend, exactly what the model predicted yesterday morning. You Can See Everything is on course for about $13.2 million and second place, a remarkable result from 855 theaters, if a little below our prediction. The weekend’s other two openers are falling short. Whalefall looks headed for about $7.4 million, 27% below what we predicted, and Focus has Sense and Sensibility at $6.7 million, 29% below.

Paramount’s video game adaptation took $13.0 million from 3,575 theaters, $4.0 million of it from Thursday previews. That is 31% of the day, right in line with recent action and adventure openings. A median weekend of 2.47 times the Friday gross would give the movie $32.1 million over the weekend. The regression on previews share gives $31.4 million, and the two together $31.6 million.

Paramount’s $31.0 million is a touch below both, and either way the film will open close to our prediction. That is a solid start rather than a breakout: the figure is below the $37.6 million its comparables pointed to before release, and it puts the film between Masters of the Universe and Red One, rather than among the bigger openings in its genre.

A24’s documentary took $5.5 million on Friday, $1.75 million of it from previews. At 32% of the day, the previews share is almost exactly that of the comparable films, which suggests its audience is reaching beyond the people who packed Thursday’s screenings. Five adult-skewing releases, including Challengers, The Drama and Primetime, had a median multiplier of 2.34, which points to a $13-million weekend; the regression gives $13.3 million.

That would be about $15,500 per theater and second place on the chart, 8% below our prediction of $14.3 million. A24 has not issued a weekend projection, and given how unusual the film is, the range of outcomes remains wider than for any other film this weekend.

20th Century Studios opened Whalefall to $3.0 million from 3,065 theaters, including $900,000 in previews. Ten recent thrillers, among them Greenland 2: Migration, The Creator and A Haunting in Venice, had a median multiplier of 2.54, which implies $7.6 million for the weekend; the regression gives $7.3 million. The studio has not issued a projection. About $7.4 million would be 27% below our $10.1 million prediction, and less than half of the $15.4 million its comparables pointed to before release.

Sense and Sensibility took $3.3 million from 2,545 theaters, $1.15 million of it from previews. At 35% of the day, that is a heavier first-night share than most of the comparable films, which points to a fanbase that turned out early. Ten recent dramas, including Downton Abbey: A New Era, Where the Crawdads Sing and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, had a median multiplier of 2.31, which gives $7.6 million; the regression gives $7.7 million.

Focus’s $6.7 million is just 2.02 times Friday, below every one of the ten comparable films, so the studio is taking a cautious view of how the weekend will play out. Even the model’s $7.7 million would be 19% below our $9.5 million prediction, though it would be enough to edge Whalefall for fourth place.

Among the holdovers, Universal is projecting $7.85 million for Other Mommy, down 72% from its opening and 31% below the model’s prediction, a very steep fall that suggests word-of-mouth is poor. That would take it to $44.4 million through Sunday. Amazon MGM has Verity at $6.5 million, down 46%, which would put it at $66.4 million, and Sony has Resident Evil at $5.5 million, down 36% and close to the model, for a running total of $148.5 million. Heart of the Beast is the best hold among the films that have reported, down 31% to a projected $5.15 million, 11% ahead of the model, which would take it to $58.6 million.

Jailer 2, which opened on Thursday in about 800 theaters, and the restoration of Ken Russell’s The Devils should take ninth and tenth places, but neither has reported Friday figures. That leaves Forgotten Island in eleventh, with Universal projecting $2.3 million, down 51% and exactly on the model’s prediction. The Social Reckoning fell 79% on Friday to $450,000 and should take about $1.5 million, down 69%. Roadside Attractions’ Crawlers took $266,555 from 1,037 theaters, which points to a weekend of about $600,000.

The eight films that have reported should take about $83.3 million between them, 11% less than the $93.6 million we predicted for the same films. Jailer 2 and The Devils will add to that, but even without them the weekend is running 8% ahead of last weekend’s full top ten of $77.0 million, and 36% ahead of the same weekend in 2025.

Studio projections for the full weekend will follow on Sunday.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report: Q3 2027 Box Office Prediction

October 5, 2026

The last two Business Reports featured our first analysis of 2027, with predictions for all announced wide releases in the first and second quarters. In this month’s Report, we continue building out predictions for 2027, shifting our focus towards the second half of the year.

The table below highlights our model’s current prediction for the top 10 films of Q3 2027, shown alongside the top 10 grossers from the same period in 2026 and 2025. Subscribe to receive our full predictions.

July’s releases once again dominate Q3, led by a trio of franchise titles. Predicted to claim the top spot is A Minecraft Movie Squared, the sequel to A Minecraft Movie, which earned $424.1m domestically. Next is DC Studios’ Man of Tomorrow, the follow-up to Superman, which topped Q3 2025 with $354.2m. Rounding out the month is A Quiet Place Part III, the latest in a franchise that has earned $487.3m to date.

August and September are led by family titles and horror. The Bluey Movie brings the hit series to theaters while TMNT 2 continues the story of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. In September, The New Simpsons Movie arrives two decades after The Simpsons Movie and The Conjuring: First Communion follows the franchise-best $177.8m for Last Rites.

We’ll be updating our tracking as the months go on, and our full prediction for 2027 releases in November. Subscribe to The Numbers Business Report to receive monthly updates.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of October’s wide releases, including Street Fighter and Clayface (among many others), along with our full 2026, Q1-Q3 2027 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films releasing domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 500 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Ticket prices up 5% in Q2 vs. 2025 as attendance climbs 10%

September 10, 2026

The first half of 2026 has brought a lot of optimism about the future of the theatrical industry, with the second quarter delivering phenomenal results. For some theater chains, total revenue during the second quarter reached historical records. Fueled by the success of movies such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Michael, Toy Story 5, Obsession, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Backrooms, admissions revenue increased by around 13% on average among the theater chains tracked in this analysis compared with the same period last year. This growth was primarily driven by a 10% average increase in attendance compared with Q2 2025.

Based on these results, our model estimates an average ticket price of $12.27 for the second quarter, approximately 5% higher than in 2025. The relatively modest increase in average ticket price compared with the growth in admissions revenue suggests that the majority of the revenue growth was driven by increased attendance rather than pricing strategies alone.

Additionally, the average concession spend (among the three theater chains reporting concession revenue) was approximately $8 per patron during the quarter, 3% higher than in Q2 2025.

Our model relies on average ticket price data reported in SEC filings from three major theater chains: AMC, Cinemark, and Cineplex. This data is modeled against historical averages previously reported by the Cinema United organization (through 2021) and The Cinema Foundation’s 2022 Theatrical Market Report. Beginning in 2025, we updated our model using additional data from our partners, resulting in revised estimates starting from 2022, as shown in the table below.

To get quarterly updates to average ticket prices, box office predictions for the next 12 months, and more, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The Numbers Named Official Data Partner of the Independent Film & Television Alliance

September 2, 2026

We’re excited to announce our new strategic partnership with the Independent Film & Television Alliance (IFTA), organizer of the American Film Market (AFM), naming The Numbers as the organization’s official data partner.

The collaboration will give IFTA members preferred access to our Comp Analysis Reports and research services, along with educational webinars on financing, market positioning, and distribution strategy, plus data and research support for AFM programming throughout the year.

Bruce Nash, founder of The Numbers and president of Nash Information Services, said the partnership would help IFTA members “make more informed decisions in a complex and growing marketplace”.

IFTA president and CEO Jackie Brenneman said, “Our collaboration with The Numbers will give our members and the broader independent community greater insight into what is happening across the marketplace, help them put that information to work as they finance, produce, sell and distribute content around the world, and better understand the trends shaping where the business is headed.”

Read the full announcement from Screen Daily here.

The Numbers Business Report: Q2 2027 Box Office Prediction

August 31, 2026

Last month, we started our analysis of 2027 with predictions for all announced wide releases in the first quarter. In this month’s Business Report, we continue building out our early predictions for 2027, shifting our attention to the second quarter of next year. Our feature article provides our first prediction for the second quarter, with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases coming out.

The table below highlights our model’s current prediction for the top 10 films of Q2 2027, shown alongside the top 10 grossers from the same period in 2026 and 2025. Subscribe to receive our full predictions.

Turning to movies released in Q2 2027, by month, our current standouts are:

April: The Legend of Zelda ($280m)
May: The Resurrection of Christ: Part One ($310m)
June: Spider-Man: Beyond the Spiderverse ($330m) and Shrek 5 ($300m)

To discover our full official prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Similar to previous years, Q2 2027 should feature several titles earning over $100 million, primarily from established and successful franchises. Examples include Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse, part of Sony’s animated Spider-Verse franchise ($571.8 million domestic across its first two films), and Shrek 5, continuing a series that has grossed $1.61 billion domestically since 2001. Other major releases include Star Wars: Starfighter, extending a franchise that has grossed $5.31 billion domestically since 1977; The Resurrection of the Christ: Part One, following 2004’s $370.8 million domestic hit The Passion of the Christ; and The Legend of Zelda, the video game franchise’s first theatrical adaptation.

We’ll be updating our tracking as the months go on, and our full prediction for 2027 releases in November. Subscribe to The Numbers Business Report to receive monthly updates.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of September’s wide releases, including Practical Magic 2 and The End of Oak Street (among many others), along with our full 2026 and Q1 2027, and Q2 2027 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films releasing domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 500 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The Numbers Business Report: Q1 2027 Box Office Prediction

August 13, 2026

With the first half of 2026 officially wrapped, we turn our thoughts to 2027 in this month’s Business Report. Our feature article provides our first prediction for the first quarter, with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases coming out.

Major franchise continuations and sequels dominate the first quarter this year, much more than last, although the late 2026 film, Avengers: Doomsday, is predicted to earn $660m in total, and $217.8m of that falls into 2027. March’s top earner, Sonic the Hedgehog 4, follows closely behind with a $210m predicted gross. We also see the latest(/final?) installments of major franchises like Dune and Jumanji from December of this year contribute to the top earners of Q1 2027.

Turning to movies released in Q1 2027, by month, our current standouts are:

January: The Beekeeper 2 ($59m)
February: Ice Age: Boiling Point ($142m)
March: Sonic the Hedgehog 4 ($210m)

We’ll be updating our tracking as the months go on, and our full prediction for 2027 releases in November. To discover our full official prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of August’s wide releases, including The End of Oak Street and The Dog Stars (among many others), along with our full 2026 and Q1 2027 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 500 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind, the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Movie pages now have full international details, plus cast & crew

July 22, 2026

Our site build-out continues this week with two major new features on the movie pages. The International tab (which sharp-eyed readers will have noticed appear a few days ago) shows the details of all international territories for which we have reported box office for each movie. This includes our complete archive of movies, with extensive historical information.

Also new this week is the cast and crew details for movies. Again, we have extensive historical information, along with details for recent releases. The cast & crew tab highlights above-the-line and leading credits in each movie.

Look for more new features soon as we build out the site, and if you’re interested in background information on what’s been happening at The Numbers over the past few months, check out Stephen Follows’ article, published today.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report: Live AI search tracking, a mid-year update

July 9, 2026

We introduced our Live AI Search tracking in the March issue of The Numbers Business Report, and have been working on refining our collection and analysis of the numbers since then. This month, we show some early results in using these new statistics to predict opening weekend box office for upcoming movies.

Large language models such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity generally consist of two components: a crawler and a live search agent. Starting last year, we began tracking and gathering all requests coming from AI agents. We can then link these data points to our OpusData database, allowing us to monitor what AI agents are requesting and translate that into a signal of audience interest.

The charts below show the first results of our modeling. They show the correlation between ChatGPT live searches in the 28 days leading up to the release of a movie and the movie’s opening weekend.

To read our full analysis, subscribe to The Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of July’s wide releases, including The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Weekend box office: Toy Story tops weekend with franchise-best $160 million

June 22, 2026

Toy Story 5 dominated the market at the weekend, posting a spectacular $159.7 million, according to Disney. That’s the best weekend ever for the franchise, topping Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million debut back in 2019. It also overtakes The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to have the best weekend of 2026 so far.

Here are the official studio numbers for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting).

Toy Story 5 opened to exceptionally strong audience reception, with Rotten Tomatoes reporting a 95% “Verified Hot” audience score from more than 2,500 verified moviegoers, alongside a 93% Certified Fresh critics’ rating. Early audience polling from ComScore’s PostTrak showed top-tier satisfaction, including 5 out of 5 stars from parents and 4.5 out of 5 stars from both general audiences and children. Overall, 91% of viewers rated the film positively, with 63% describing it as “excellent.” CinemaScore reinforced the film’s strong debut, awarding it an “A,” continuing Pixar’s consistent streak of A-range grades across its releases.

Premium viewing formats played a significant role in the film’s opening weekend performance, accounting for 40% of total box office revenue. Standard 2D screenings made up the majority at 60%, while premium large format (PLF) 2D contributed 19% and IMAX 2D added 8%. In total, 2D formats represented 89% of ticket sales, compared to 11% for 3D formats. Audience demographics reflected broad appeal, with a gender split of 57% female and 43% male. The film attracted a diverse audience, including 37% Caucasian, 32% Hispanic, 13% African American, 9% Asian, and 9% Native American or other groups. Age distribution skewed toward families and younger adults, led by viewers under 12 (25%), followed by ages 25–34 (22%) and 35–44 (20%).

Internationally, Toy Story 5 delivered strong opening results across key markets, led by Mexico with $26.6 million, followed by the United Kingdom at $20.0 million and China at $18.0 million. In Europe, France contributed $7.2 million, Spain $5.5 million, and Italy $3.5 million, while Australia added $6.9 million. Latin America proved particularly robust, with Brazil and Korea each generating $6.1 million, Argentina $5.4 million, Colombia $4.2 million, and Central America $3.7 million, underscoring the film’s broad global appeal.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report asks, where have all the indie films gone?

June 11, 2026

Movies from the major studios may get most of the buzz, but by the raw numbers, most movies that get made and distributed have more humble origins. In the latest The Numbers Business Report, we look at the universe of movies produced and distributed for sale, either in theaters, on a digital transactional platform, or a subscription streaming service in the domestic market (the United States and Canada) between 2021 and 2025. In this study, we call these “commercial releases,” in contrast to “ad-supported content,” which includes content produced for platforms like YouTube, and also movies released solely on AVOD services.

What we’ve found is a tale of two markets. On the one hand, the theatrical market has shown growth over the past five years, with 101 domestically-produced and released narrative features earning over $1 million at the box office in 2021, and 160 such movies in 2025. With new distribution technologies making it easier than ever to get movies into theaters, the total number of domestically-produced narrative features getting any sort of theatrical release has also increased, from 494 in 2021 to 598 in 2025.

The increase in that number contrasts with a steep decline among direct-to-digital titles. Movies bypassing theaters, but still having a commercial release, fell from 1,427 in 2022 to 721 last year. That’s a decline of nearly 50% in just three years.

Subscribe to The Business Report for details on how we compiled the data, and what we think is happening to cause this remarkable shift in the independent film business in such a short time.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of June’s wide releases, including Disclosure Day and Toy Story 5 (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be ”under construction“ for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!