Weekend projections: Backrooms and Obsession make box office history

May 31, 2026

This a weekend for the ages, with Backrooms and Obsession both having historical runs. Backrooms will have one of the top five weekends of all time for a horror movie, and arguably the best debut ever in the genre for a movie not based on existing IP (although it’s fair to argue that YouTube counts as existing IP at this point). Even in the face of a monster $81 million or so from Backrooms, Obsession is pulling off the almost unheard of feat of growing its box office haul each weekend for its first three weekends in release.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

A24 haven’t shared detailed demographics for Backrooms, but it has clearly tapped into the core of the moviegoing audience, with 86% under 35, two-thirds under 25, and 44% under 21. Solid reviews (with an 89 from Rotten Tomatoes) have clearly helped it, as has decent word-of-mouth through the weekend. The model thought it would be fairly front-loaded, so to come in a projected 8% ahead of the model’s prediction shows how well it is doing. The only remaining question is how well it will hold on in theaters over the next few weeks. Our model currently predicts it will earn at least $140 million in total, with something closer to $200 million well within its sights (the exact prediction today is $208.5 million). Wherever it goes from here, it is smashing records for A24, which has never a movie top $100 million at the box office—Marty Supreme’s $96 million is the studio’s high water mark.

With Backrooms having such a gigantic opening, one might expect Obsession to struggle a little this weekend. While the idea of competition crowding out movies in similar genres is a bit of a myth, it’s still remarkable to see Obsession increase its box office gross for the second weekend running—especially with last weekend being a holiday. It has now overtaken Downton Abbey’s $96.9 million to become Focus Features’ highest-grossing movie of all time (noting that Coraline earned $75.3 million from its initial release, and has subsequently pulled in over $40 million from re-releases by Fathom Events).

Our model is struggling to keep up with this trajectory. As of today, it is guessing at a final total for Obsession possibly as high as $184 million, but that’s really a shot in the dark when a movie outperforms basically every other release in the past 40 years. The closest comparison in our database (hat-tip to Scott Mendelson for finding this) is probably E.T., which increased its earnings on its second, third, and fourth weekends (the last of which corresponded to the July 4 weekend). It ended up playing in theaters for a year, and grossed a then-record $359 million from its initial run. We can be fairly confident Obsession won’t have that kind of run, but it puts what’s happening so into perspective. A better comparison might be My Big Fat Greek Wedding, which earned $241 million back in 2002–03 thanks to an exceptionally long run driven by word of mouth.

My money is on Backrooms and Obsession both topping $200 million, which is practically found money for the theatrical business, given their relatively tiny budgets ($10 million and $750,000 respectively).

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Backrooms set for gigantic opening

May 29, 2026

Our model predicts a massive $75-million opening weekend for A24’s horror movie Backrooms, after it posted $10.4 million in previews on Thursday. That will be easily the studio’s best weekend. In fact, there’s a good chance Backrooms will more than triple their previous best—the $25.5 million earned by Civil War on its opening weekend back in 2024.

Our baseline prediction has been predicting a great weekend for Backrooms for a while, but we were expecting something more in the range of $40 million until the past few days when ticket sales really took off. As of yesterday, our revised figure was basically in line with how things are playing out, but that was almost entirely based on our audience tracking. Even with A24’s second-widest opening after Civil War, the model would set the benchmark for this movie at around $10 million on opening weekend.

The preview numbers confirm the audience tracking… this movie will be huge this weekend, with It and It: Chapter Two the only horror movies to post preview numbers in this range (the first It converted $13.5 million in previews into a $123-million opening).

The Breadwinner provides some counter-programming this weekend.

This is a case where the baseline prediction will probably prevail. Family comedies have very high, but quite unpredictable, multipliers from Thursday previews to the weekend total. Something over $10 million is stil in play, but $8 million or so is probably the safer bet.

The final movie for which we have a prediction this weekend is the World War II drama Pressure. It should secure a place in the top 10.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

This weekend will be all about Backrooms, but one interesting question is how its gargantuan start will affect Obsession, which is having a spectacular run of its own. Horror fans are spoilt for choice this weekend.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Mandalorian still widest as Backrooms creeps into theaters

May 28, 2026

With Obsession and The Mandalorian locked in a box‑office duel, a trio of new wide releases enters the fray this weekend, highlighted by Backrooms, the found‑footage horror feature already generating talk as a potential breakout. Still, the latest Star Wars installment maintains its position as the market’s widest release, holding firm at 4,300 theaters.

Set to begin its theatrical run in 3,442 theaters, Backrooms brings to life the viral horror concept of an endless, maze‑like expanse of stained carpet, humming fluorescent lights, and windowless rooms that defy logic. Comprised of multiple levels—each with its own rules, threats, and atmosphere—the Backrooms are far from empty; entities, distortions, and environmental hazards stalk anyone unlucky enough to slip inside. The feature hails from filmmaker and YouTuber Kane Parsons, who transformed his internet creepypasta into a fully realized narrative universe. Parsons also holds the distinction of being the youngest director ever to helm a film for A24 at just 20 years old.

Opening in 3,252 locations this weekend is the comedy feature, The Breadwinner. The film stars Nate Bargatze as a first‑time stay‑at‑home dad thrust into the role when his wife is sent overseas on an extended business trip after landing the deal of a lifetime on Shark Tank. Suddenly responsible for the day‑to‑day needs of their three young daughters, he quickly discovers that running the household is the toughest job he’s ever taken on. Bargatze is joined by a supporting cast that includes Mandy Moore, Colin Jost, and Will Forte.

The WWII drama Pressure also rolls out in wide release this weekend, charting the fraught 72 hours before D‑Day, when a single weather call threatened to alter the course of the war. Brendan Fraser leads as General Dwight D. Eisenhower, with Andrew Scott as James Stagg, the meteorologist whose storm warning clashes with the prevailing forecast. Their debate becomes a race against time as they weigh whether to launch the invasion or stand down. The film lands in 1,829 theaters across North America.

Closing out the top five, Michael maintains a broad footprint with 3,118 engagements, while The Sheep Detectives trims 397 theaters this frame but stays in circulation at 2,810 venues.

Next weekend brings a fresh wave of titles to the marketplace, among them The Last Whale Singer, The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, Masters of the Universe, and Scary Movie, the latter eyeing a 3,000-theater launch.

Theater Counts for May 29

Theater counts for June 5

Weekend projections: Mandalorian off to solid start, while Obsession becomes a surprise hit

May 24, 2026

The Mandalorian & Grogu will post a projected $82-million three-day and $102-million four-day opening this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning numbers, making it the third-best domestic opener this year so far. That’s a solid number for a Star Wars spin-off, landing somewhere in the vacinity of Solo’s $84.4-million opening back in 2018 (although quite a bit less than that number after accounting for inflation). While Grogu gets the headlines, the standout figure this weekend is Obsession $22.4-million Friday–Sunday total, which is a remarkable 30% up from its opening weekend.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

The Mandalorian & Grogu opened to a predominantly male audience (63% male vs. 37% female), with the strongest turnout among younger adults aged 25-34 (23%) and significant representation from the 35-44 (18%) and 45-54 (19%) age groups. The film appealed to a diverse range of cultural backgrounds, with Caucasian audiences comprising the majority at 53%, followed by Hispanic audiences at 23%, while African American (9%), Asian (7%), and Native American/Other (7%) audiences made up the remainder.

Premium formats drove more than half of the opening weekend box office, accounting for 53% of total revenue across IMAX, Premium Large Format, 3D, and specialty formats. Among all screenings, traditional 2D showings represented 47% of the box office, while Premium Large Format 2D captured 22% and IMAX 2D contributed 12%. Three-dimensional formats accounted for 16% of the total, split between traditional 3D (8%), PLF 3D (3%), and IMAX 3D (3%), with specialty motion and ScreenX formats rounding out the distribution.

Its international opening was led by the UK with $7.1M, followed closely by Germany ($6.5M) and China ($5.3M). Major Asian markets contributed significantly, with Japan delivering $4.9M, while Australia rounded out the top five territories at $4.6M. Mexico ($3.9M) and France ($3.8M) provided strong support from Latin America and continental Europe respectively, with Spain ($2.4M), Italy ($2.0M), and Brazil ($1.3M) completing the top ten international markets.

Obsession has clearly been helped by the long weekend, but that probably only accounts for about a 10% bump in its box office. The rest is coming from exceptional word of mouth, and our model now predicts a final total for the movie of $83 million, which would represent a multiplier of close to five from its opening weekend. Sinners ended with a multiplier of 5.8 after dropping 5% in its second weekend, and a multiplier of six or more for Obsession can’t be ruled out, which would take it to around $100 million domestically.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Mandalorian looking at $80m–$100m 3-day opening

May 22, 2026

The Mandalorian & Grogu is the big movie to watch over Memorial Day weekend, although it looks as though it will take four days to top $100 million rather than posting a century-plus three-day debut. Out model’s prediction today stands at $87.8 million, which is a perfectly respectable number these days for a movie that’s based on a TV and moving to the big screen.

Here are the model’s predictions for The Mandalorian and this weekend’s two other wide releases, Passenger and I Love Boosters…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The dark horse this weekend is Obsession, which has been posting fantastic daily numbers through the week, and has topped the chart since Monday. The model thinks it will decline just 16% in its second weekend, partly helped by the holiday weekend, but largely thanks to great word of mouth.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: The Mandalorian & Grogu invades 4,300 theaters across North America

May 21, 2026

Four new releases are set to arrive in theaters this weekend, led by the long-awaited debut of The Mandalorian & Grogu, which continues the story begun in the Disney+ series, The Mandalorian. The film follows bounty hunter Din Djarin and his adopted apprentice Grogu as they embark on a new galactic mission to rescue Rotta the Hutt in exchange for information connected to a far greater threat. Opening in 4,300 theaters, the film stars Pedro Pascal as Din Djarin/The Mandalorian, alongside Jeremy Allen White as Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver as Colonel Ward. Jon Favreau, who helmed the television series, returns to direct the feature, marking his first film since 2019’s The Lion King.

Also making its theatrical debut is the road-trip horror Passenger. The film follows a young couple who witness a brutal highway accident, only to discover they didn’t leave the crash site alone. A malevolent entity known as the Passenger begins to stalk them, turning their carefree van-life journey into a relentless nightmare that won’t end until it claims them both. Starring Jacob Scipio and Lou Llobell, the film is directed by André Øvredal and opens in 2,534 theaters nationwide.

Also opening wide this weekend is I Love Boosters. The crime comedy follows a crew of professional shoplifters who take aim at a cutthroat fashion maven. Starting in 1,750 theaters, the film stars an ensemble cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie and Poppy Liu among others.

Hitting theaters for the first time is another horror feature, this time from director Aaron Fisher. Corporate Retreat follows a group of ambitious young executives who attend a luxury team-building getaway, only to find the experience devolving into a brutal, blood-soaked fight for survival. Theater counts will be updated once they become available.

Rounding out the top five this weekend is Michael, shedding 244 locations but still remaining widely available in 3,306 theaters. The Devil Wears Prada 2 slips from 3,830 to 3,300 venues, while The Sheep Detectives and Mortal Kombat II land in 3,207 and 2,726 cinemas, respectively.

Looking ahead, three wide releases are set to arrive in North American theaters next weekend, including the Nate Bargatze comedy, The Breadwinner, expected to play in approximately 3,300 theaters. Meanwhile, D-Day drama/thriller, Pressure, starring Brendan Fraser and Andrew Scott, looks to embark in about 1,500 theaters.

Theater Counts for May 22

Theater counts for May 29

Weekend projections: Michael back on top as Obsession impresses

May 17, 2026

Michael is a chart-topper once more this weekend, as a solid decline of 31% in its fourth weekend takes it past The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mortal Kombat II, which sat at number one and two last weekend. Obsession is easily the best of the new releases, with an excellent $16.1-million debut.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

Michael has now amassed $282.8 million at the domestic box office, and our model predicts it will end its run with a formidable $333 million. With $421.1 million internationally, the biopic already stands at $703.9 million worldwide. If its international trendline matches its domestic one (which has been the case so far), it will earn somewhere around $820 million to $840 million worldwide when all is said and done. Bohemian Rhapsody’s $879-million all-time record gross for a musician biopic might actually be at risk.

Obsession is coming in slightly better than the model predicted on Friday. The film earned an A- CinemaScore from opening-night audiences, while PostTrak showed strong sentiment with 89% of moviegoers rating it in the top two boxes. The crowd skewed male, 59% to 41% female, and 61% of ticket buyers were 25 or older. The largest age group was 25-34 at 39%, followed closely by 18-24 at 36%, with 35-44 at 13%, 45-54 at 5%, 55 and older at 4%, and teens 13-17 at 3%. Ethnically, the audience was 39% Caucasian, 32% Hispanic, 12% African American, 12% Asian, and 5% Native American or other. Good word of mouth is clearly helping this one.

In the Grey and Is God Is are both missing their marks, which isn’t a big surprise. In the Grey was tracking fairly well over the past few weeks, but couldn’t break through. Is God Is is an excellent movie that was never going enjoy widespread appeal. The good news is that audiences got a chance to see them in theaters, and both will have good post-theatrical runs.

Two final items of note. Top Gun returns to the top 10 this weekend with a very decent $3.1 million, and The Sheep Detectives is expected to fall only 38% on its second weekend, pointing to excellent word-of-mouth and strong legs. Its challenge will be holding on to theaters after Memorial Day weekend, but the model thinks it could come very close to $50 million by the end of its run. It has $29.7 million to date domestically, and a virtually identical $29 million overseas.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report dives into box office tracking in the age of AI

April 8, 2026

In this month’s Business Report, we take a deep dive into how the use of LLMs is changing what we can learn about the demand for upcoming movies. The key finding is that the traffic logs on The Numbers reveal both the crawls of the site used to train AI models, and live search from their AI engines as end users ask questions needing more timely information. Over time, we began to see a potential opportunity in the traffic generated by these entities.

Our website currently receives approximately 10% of its traffic from regular users and another 10% from AI agents performing live searches. These requests present an opportunity to better understand what people care about, whether it's a particular movie, genre, franchise, actor, and so on. We’ve found that requests from AI agents correlate with box office success for future releases and can be translated into a measure of audience interest.

Below is a sample table showing the number of daily requests leading up to the theatrical release for three films released in the final months of 2025. The data reveals a clear pattern: request volume increases notably around trailer releases, reflecting growing audience awareness, and continues to rise steadily in the days leading up to the theatrical release.

Due to the nature of the data, the AI monitoring system can capture requests well before a movie is released. This allows us to measure consumer interest at different stages of a movie’s lifecycle—for example, when a movie is first added to our system (typically at the time of announcement), during teaser or trailer releases, or after cast announcements.

These early insights can translate into shifts in demand long before a movie’s release, giving industry stakeholders the opportunity to react to different scenarios, such as adjusting release strategies, improving promotional materials, or planning merchandise and event activations.

In terms of improving prediction models, this data can complement existing forecasting tools by providing an additional signal of consumer interest. It enables stakeholders to predict a movie’s performance up to a year, six months, or even days before release, as well as throughout the movie’s lifecycle after release.

Starting with our April report, we will begin incorporating Live AI search data into the Business Report, tracking the number of requests for upcoming releases. Beyond reporting, we are also exploring how this data can be integrated into the forecasting models you, our readers are currently working on, potentially adding a new and valuable signal for predicting audience interest and box office performance. Finally, if you have web sites or other endpoints exposed to AI agents, we’d be interested in seeing how your data could be incorporated into a combined model.

Our team will be demoing the latest iteration of AI search monitoring system at CinemaCon, from April 13 to 16. If you’ll be there, we’d love to meet. Please drop us an email to set up a time.

The data doesn’t end there. Read the report for our full, in-depth coverage.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of April’s wide releases, including Michael and The Devil Wears Prada: 2 (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are now publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be “under construction” for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!