Weekend predictions: Project Hail Mary set to stay top

March 27, 2026

Project Hail Mary will be an easy winner at the box office this weekend. The main question is how strong its hold will be. Our model has settled on a 57% decline, and a total of $34.3 million over three days. Folks I’ve talked to are expecting something better, with the movie potentially getting close to $50 million this time around. Its reviews and audience scores suggest that’s possible. Anything under a 50% drop (meaning a $40-million weekend) would be excellent.

No new films are going to challenge Hail Mary, but Warner Bros.’ They Will Kill You will almost certainly land in third place. Here’s our baseline prediction for that movie…

The model struggled a bit with this one. Warner Bros. has had an incredible run with unusual horror tales over the last year or so, and the model’s baseline doesn’t take into account the general vibe and chatter around a movie. The audience tracking adjustment does take into account vibe and chatter, and has been consistently soft on this film. That’s borne out by the preview numbers from yesterday…

Something between $7 million and $8 million looks a good bet for this one.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

There are a few wildcards arriving in theaters this weekend. The Mummy Returns and Stand by Me could both hit the top 10, although re-releases are generally very difficult to predict. IFC Entertainment Group’s Forbidden Fruits is playing in 1,525 theaters, which gives it a good shot at hitting the top 10, although we don’t have an official prediction for it.

Finally, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist debuts in 785 theaters. That’s probably not enough breadth to get it high on the chart, and documentaries haven’t done particularly well in theaters in recent years, but it is timely and might draw in the curious. I asked ChatGPT whether I should see it in theaters, and it said “maybe.” It was more enthusiastic about Project Hail Mary, by the way, but told me that it hasn’t been released yet and wait to see what the reviews are like before deciding. Put me in the Apocalpessimist camp.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Project Hail Mary surges with 70 more theaters, again leading as widest release

March 26, 2026

It was a dominating debut last weekend for newcomer “Project Hail Mary” as the Ryan Gosling feature grossed an impressive $80 million in its opening volley, and easily topped the domestic box office chart. The film crossed the $100 million mark domestically on Wednesday and should find itself at the top of the leader board once again as it adds 70 theaters from last weekend, but will have to fend off a trio of fresh films looking to push it from its perch.

The largest of the new movies making their theatrical launch this weekend is horror feature, They Will Kill You. The film follows a woman who answers a help-wanted ad to be a housekeeper in a mysterious high-rise in New York City, not realizing she is entering a community that has seen a number of disappearances over the years and may be under the grip of a Satanic cult. The film contains an ensemble cast which includes Zazie Beetz, Heather Graham and Patricia Arquette among others. They Will Kill You is set to arrive in 2,778 locations.

Starting in 1,525 movie houses this weekend is the horror-comedy, Forbidden Fruits. The film follows Apple, a retail worker who secretly runs a witchy, all-female cult in the basement of her store after hours. Her inner circle (with coworkers named Cherry and Fig) is built around this intense, almost performative “sisterhood.” Lili Reinhart stars in the Meredith Alloway-directed film.

The other wide release hitting cinemas this weekend is the AI documentary, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist. The movie follows a father-to-be on a quest to understand the world his child is about to inherit. As he grapples with the explosive risks and revolutionary potential of AI, director Daniel Roher turns to the leading voices shaping and challenging the rise of AI. The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist will be available in 785 venues.

Two films are making their return trip to theaters this weekend. These include the Rob Reiner directed, coming-of-age feature Stand by Me, returning for its 40th anniversary; as well as The Mummy Returns, re-releasing for its 25th anniversary. Those films will be available in 1,430 and 624 theaters throughout North America, respectively.

Rounding out the top five is the aforementioned Project Hail Mary, bumping up to 4,077 locations this weekend. Hoppers is still making a lot of noise, and only dropping 25 locations this weekend, landing in 3,650 theaters. Occupying the third and fourth place spots are Reminders of Him and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come, showing in 3,174 and 3,010 cinemas, respectively.

Looking ahead to next weekend, we once again see the arrival of three new wide releases. These include The Drama, starring Robert Pattinson and Zendaya; the 1700s set historical dramatization, A Great Awakening; and the long-awaited launch of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Opening on Wednesday, April 1, the latter is projected to race into approximately 4,000 theaters.

Theater Counts for March 27

Theater counts for April 3

Weekend projections: Project Hail Mary blasts off with monster $80 million for Amazon MGM Studios

March 22, 2026

Project Hail Mary is projected to earn $80.6 million this weekend, according to Amazon MGM Studio’s Sunday-morning weekend projection. Only one other non-sequel, non-franchise film has posted a number like that: Oppenheimer, which debuted with $82 million on the famous July 21 weekend in 2023. With an A CinemaScore, 95% fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 96% Popcornmeter, the movie has become a must-see for its target audience, and it looks set for a stellar run in theaters.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

The demographic breakdown for Project Hail Mary is as follows:

• 57% Male vs. 43% Female
• 6% 13-17 years old, 22% 18-24 years old, 26% 25-34 years old (largest quad), 17% 35-44 years old, 11% 45-54 years old, 18% 55+ years old
• 60% White, 20% Hispanic, 6% AA, 9% Asian, 5% NatAm/ Other

With a $60.4-million international weekend, Hail Mary will have $141 million in its box office bank by the end of today, which gives it a good start on recouping its $200-million net production budget. It’ll still need decent word-of-mouth to achieve that, once marketing costs are taken into account, but that seems more likely than not at this point. The broader story is that Amazon MGM Studios has shown it can produce a bona fide box office hit, which is vital if it’s going to recruit the kind of talent it needs to become a truly “major” studio.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Weekend predictions: Project Hail Mary could hit $80 million this weekend

March 20, 2026

After a few week’s hiatus, our weekend predictions return this weekend with a potential blockbuster debut. Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary looks set to get off the ground with an excellent opening weekend. This has been the studio’s big hope for a breakout success after a run of middling to poor results, and the stars seem aligned for a great launch. Tracking has been strong for weeks, with an opening somewhere between $50 million and $70 million generally expected. Its $12 million in previews yesterday point to something even bigger than that.

Here’s a quick rundown of our model’s predictions this week…

First up, the baseline for Project Hail Mary…

An audience tracking adjustment of 201% is already very high, but the preview numbers are exceptional…

Amazon MGM point to this being the second-best preview figure for a non-sequel, non-franchise film, behind only It. Even with poor daily legs, the film should soar past $50 million this weekend, with $80 million its new target.

Looking to play second fiddle this weekend is horror sequel Ready or Not 2: Here I Come…

Factoring in audience tracking, the model has been expecting an opening very much in line with the original movie. The previews landed exactly where they needed to…

Dhurandhar: The Revenge is a major wildcard, but should make it into the top 5. With this weekend competing with Snow White on the year-on-year comparison, this will be an easy victory for 2026.

All eyes will be on Project Hail Mary (both literally and figuratively) this weekend. Our model is optimistic for a very, very good weekend domestically. If it can do solid business internationally too, this big bet for Amazon could end up in the black soon.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Project Hail Mary launches in 4,007 theaters

March 19, 2026

Four new wide releases hit theaters this weekend. Leading the charge is the highly-anticipated sci-fi epic Project Hail Mary, which blasts into 4,007 theaters. Unless a calamity of cosmic proportions hits in the next 24 hours, it will unseat Hoppers at the top of the box office chart. The animated adventure claimed the top spot at the box office last weekend, earning $28.66m, and it will pass $100 million in total domestically today.

Project Hail Mary, based on the novel of the same name by Andy Weir, stars Ryan Gosling as Ryland Grace, a middle-school teacher turned astronaut who wakes up on a spaceship with no memory of how he got there. He soon realizes he is humanity’s last hope to save Earth from a solar catastrophe. Directed by the Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, the film also stars Sandra Hüller and Milana Vayntrub.

Also opening wide this weekend is the survival horror sequel Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. Samara Weaving returns as Grace, facing off against four rival elite families in a deadly ritual. The 2019 original earned $28.71m domestically and $27.99m internationally. The sequel opens in 3,010 locations and co-stars Kathryn Newton, Sarah Michelle Gellar, and Elijah Wood.

For families, Viva Pictures is releasing the animated adventure The Pout Pout Fish in 1,860 theaters. Based on the children’s book series by Deborah Diesen, the story follows a grumpy fish and a young sea dragon on a quest to find a mythical wish-granting fish. The voice cast includes Nick Offerman, Nina Oyama, Miranda Otto, and Jordin Sparks.

Meanwhile, the Indian action sequel Dhurandhar: The Revenge debuts today in 987 theaters. The film earned an estimated $1.99m in Wednesday previews. Dhurandhar took in $12.4m domestically and $124.12m internationally at the box office.

Rounding out the top five widest releases this weekend is current chart-topper Hoppers, which retains a strong footprint of 3,675 theaters. Reminders of Him increases to 3,441 venues, while undertone holds steady in 2,570 movie houses.

Looking ahead to next weekend, They Will Kill You opens in an estimated 2,700 locations. The Mummy Returns and The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist also debut. These films are projected to arrive in approximately 1,350 and 700 theaters, respectively.

Theater Counts for March 20

Theater counts for March 27

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be “under construction” for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!

Hoppers bounds along as Reminders of Him arrives as second-widest release

March 11, 2026

Last weekend was a breakout success for newcomer Hoppers as the Disney-Pixar film hopped to a three-day debut of $45.35 million at the domestic box office. Scream 7 followed with a solid $17 million in its second weekend, pushing its 10-day total to $93.09 million. The other film to make its theatrical launch, The Bride landed in third place, picking up $7.05 million from 3,304 locations. This weekend, two new wide releases hit theaters, ready to shake up the current box office leaderboard.

Debuting in 3,402 theaters this weekend is the romantic drama, Reminders of Him. The film follows Kenna Rowan, who returns home after serving five years in prison for a car accident that killed her boyfriend. Her sole goal is to reconnect with the daughter she left behind, but the child’s guardians refuse to let her near. As Kenna struggles to rebuild her life, she forms an unexpected bond with Ledger, one of the few willing to give her a second chance. Starring Maika Monroe and Tyriq Withers, the film is based on the 2022 novel by Colleen Hoover.

Also opening wide this weekend is the psychological horror undertone from A24. The film follows Evy, a paranormal podcast host who moves back home to care for her dying mother. While working on her podcast, she receives mysterious audio recordings from a couple who believe their house is haunted. As she listens to the files, the strange noises start to affect her own life and mind, blurring the line between the recordings and reality. undertone will arrive in 2,570 locations across North America.

Expanding from 200 theaters on February 27 to 900 theaters this weekend is the tenth anniversary re-release of the Leonardo DiCaprio western adventure, The Revenant. The film is the harrowing true story of Hugh Glass, a legendary explorer and frontiersman who endures the unimaginable in his quest to survive after a series of tragedies. The Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-directed feature has earned well over $500 million in worldwide sales since its original release on Christmas Day, 2015.

Rounding out the top five widest releases this weekend, current chart topper Hoppers, retains its 4,000-theater count. The Bride! maintains its 3,304-theater footprint, while Scream 7 holds the number four spot, showing in 3,243 locations. GOAT dips below 3,000 theaters for the first time, but is still playing in a respectable 2,946 movie houses.

Looking ahead to next weekend, we see two more wide releases make their theatrical debuts. These include the highly-anticipated Project Hail Mary, starring Ryan Gosling, and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. These films are projected to arrive in approximately 4,000 and 3,000 theaters, respectively.