Weekend predictions: Mortal Kombat II favored in intense threeway battle

May 8, 2026

This weekend should belong to Mortal Kombat II when the dust settles, but the chart toppers from the last two weekends might have something to say about that, with both The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Michael enjoying enthusiastic support from their respective fan bases. With all three films aimed at somewhat different demographics (and new release The Sheep Detectives having a niche of its own), we should have an excellent weekend in theaters.

Here’s our model’s baseline for Mortal Kombat II. Our pre-release tracking was already confident this installment of the franchise would outperform its predecessors in general, and the 2021 reboot in particular.

The preview numbers are pointing to a weekend close to, or possibly a little better than that.

$40 million isn’t out of the question, but something in the high 30s looks most likely.

Meanwhile, we have official predictions for two other movies this weekend, starting with The Sheep Detectives…

Again, the preview numbers are looking on the high end of expectations, and we should see a solid number for this one. As a family-friendly movie that will also draw in grown-ups, the big question with this film is how good its legs are. Reviews so far point towards longevity, but whether that will be in the home or in theaters remains to be seen.

Finally, we just have a baseline prediction for concert movie Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard and Soft—The Tour…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

If Mortal Kombat II doesn’t have great legs through the weekend, Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2 are both capable of stealing the box office crown. That battle might grab some headlines, but the real news here is that we’re looking at a very strong market. The top 10 will combine to earn roughly twice what we saw this time last year, and the top three should bring in around $100 million between them.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Prada rules runway in 4,200 theaters as Mortal Kombat II arrives in 3,503

May 3, 2026

The Devil Wears Prada 2 made a commanding debut last weekend, strutting to a $75.76 million opening, and will remain the widest release in North America for a second weekend. Three new releases arrive in theaters this weekend, including another sequel, Mortal Kombat II.

Arriving in 3,503 locations, Mortal Kombat II follows the fan‑favorite champions of Earthrealm, now joined by Johnny Cage, as they enter a no‑holds‑barred, blood‑soaked fight to stop Shao Kahn’s dark rule from consuming their realm. The sequel features a sprawling ensemble led by Karl Urban as Cage and continues the storyline launched in 2021’s Mortal Kombat, which opened to $23 million from 3,073 theaters and finished with more than $42 million domestically. Both films are directed by Simon McQuoid.

Also opening wide this weekend is the animal-led crime comedy The Sheep Detectives. Based on the novel Three Bags Full, the film follows Shepherd George Hardy, who reads murder mysteries to his flock, until he’s found dead under suspicious circumstances. Convinced it’s murder, the sheep set out to crack the case themselves. The live‑action/CGI feature is directed by veteran filmmaker Kyle Balda (Minions, Minions: The Rise of Gru, and Despicable Me 3) and stars Hugh Jackman as George Hardy.

Launching in 2,613 venues this weekend is the Billie Eilish 3D concert film, Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard and Soft—The Tour. The film captures the singer’s sold-out performances from her seventh headlining concert tour of the same name. Eilish directs alongside filmmaking veteran James Cameron.

Closing out the top five, The Devil Wears Prada 2 adds 50 theaters for a total of 4,200 in its sophomore outing. Michael trims 405 locations but is still easy to find in 3,550 theaters, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie continues to draw crowds across 3,068 cinemas.

Looking ahead to next weekend, six wide releases head into theaters, including the 25th-and 40th-anniversary re-releases of Shrek and Top Gun, (Top Gun hits theaters on Wednesday), respectively. The former is expected to land in roughly 1,300 theaters, while the latter flies into approximately 2,000 locations. Meanwhile, newcomers Obsession and Is God Is are set to debut in about 2,200 and 1,500 theaters, respectively.

Theater Counts for May 8

Theater counts for May 15

Weekend projections: Devil Wears Prada struts to $77 million on debut

May 3, 2026

The Devil Wears Prada 2 will whip up a phenomenal $77 million this weekend, according to Sunday-morning estimates from 20th Century Studios/Disney. While that’s somewhat less than our model predicted on Friday, it’s a fantastic opening for a non-family comedy. In fact, only The Hangover Part II has earned more on opening weekend among live action comedies, with $85.9 million on its debut in 2011.

Prada’s great start comes right behind Michael‘s even bigger $97 million last weekend, and that movie is having a gangbusters second weekend, adding another $54 million to its domestic tally, and ending the weekend with around $183.8 million in North America.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

The performance of the top two movies compared to our model’s prediction tells an intersting story. On paper, Devil Wears Prada should have better legs, with Michael’s audience expected to be more skewed towards hardcore fans (who are more likely to come out on opening weekend). Instead, Michael is enjoying an excellent hold in its second weekend while Devil is coming in a little behind where the model expected. This is of little consequence in the grand scheme of things—both movies are doing very well—but worth keeping an eye on as Memorial Day comes up.

The audience for Devil Wears Prada 2 is reportedly 76% female, 49% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic, 12% African-American, 8% Asian, and 5% Native American or “other.” Age wise, it is playing to 3% 13–17, 11% 18–24, 28% 25–34, 21% 35–44, 15% 45–54 and 22% aged 55 or older.

International numbers for both movies are excellent, with Prada launching with $156.6 million internationally (basically double its domestic number), and Michael ending the weekend with $240 million overseas.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Devil Wears Prada could top $90 million this weekend

May 1, 2026

After a massive debut for Michael last weekend, The Devil Wears Prada 2 will have its turn at the top of the domestic box office this weekend with another giant opening. After Michael powered through to $97 million last weekend, Prada will be looking for something that comes close to that number, although, just like last weekend, anything over $80 million is basically a triumph.

Here’s our model’s baseline for The Devil Wears Prada 2, which was already showing huge interest in the film leading up to its release…

The preview numbers are broadly in line with our already high expecations.

$10 million in previews puts us in the rarified territory for a comedy or drama, and makes the final outcome for the weekend a little uncertain, but it’s clear it’ll be a big one.

Meanwhile, we have official predictions for two other movies this weekend:

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Although we don’t have an official prediction for it, Deep Water stands a very good chance of hitting the top 10, and we’re looking at a great “official start to Summer.”

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: The Devil Wears Prada 2 steps out in style across 4,150 theaters

April 30, 2026

It was all about Michael at the box office last weekend, as the biopic opened to a stellar $97 million from 3,955 theaters, securing the biggest biopic debut of all time both domestically and worldwide. Michael’s reign at the box office is likely to be short-lived though, as a fresh wave of releases arrives this weekend, led by The Devil Wears Prada 2.

Opening in 4,150 locations, The Devil Wears Prada 2 follows the 2006 hit The Devil Wears Prada, which debuted to $27.5 million from 2,847 theaters and ultimately earned $124.7 million domestically and $326 million worldwide. The sequel finds Miranda facing a career downturn, forcing a high-stakes reunion with Emily, now a powerful executive at a luxury conglomerate whose advertising dollars Miranda urgently needs. Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci reprise their roles in the stylish follow-up.

Opening in 2,600 theaters, the animated feature, Animal Farm charts how a revolution built on equality is gradually corrupted. As the pigs tighten their grip on power, truth is distorted, dissent is silenced, and the farm slips into a brutal dictatorship—echoing George Orwell’s enduring warning about authoritarianism. The film features a star-studded voice cast, including Seth Rogen, Steve Buscemi, Glenn Close, and Woody Harrelson, among others.

Also opening wide this weekend is the horror film, Hokum. The Adam Scott–led thriller follows a reclusive novelist who retreats to a remote Irish inn to scatter his parents’ ashes, only to become unsettled by the staff’s stories of an ancient witch said to haunt the honeymoon suite. As the legend begins to take hold, disturbing visions and a sudden disappearance pull him into a chilling confrontation with the darkest corners of his past. Directed by Damian McCarthy, the film opens in 1,850 theaters.

Surfacing in 1,675 venues this weekend, the survival thriller Deep Water follows a group of international passengers aboard a flight from Los Angeles to Shanghai that’s forced into an emergency landing in shark-infested waters. Trapped in a sinking fuselage and surrounded by circling predators, the survivors must set aside their differences and work together if they hope to make it out alive. Directed by Renny Harlin, the film stars Aaron Eckhart and Ben Kingsley.

Debuting in 837 locations, the anime fantasy That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea arrives as the second feature in the franchise, following 2022’s Scarlet Bond. Based on the light novel series That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime, written by the author known as Fuse, the film continues the expanding world of the popular saga with a new standalone adventure.

Rounding out the top five widest releases this weekend is current chart-topper Michael, which holds steady at 3,955 theaters following its strong debut. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie sheds 320 locations but remains widely available in 3,412 cinemas, while Project Hail Mary completes the lineup, continuing its run in 3,017 theaters.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a trio of new wide releases is set to hit theaters. Leading the charge is franchise entry Mortal Kombat II, debuting in approximately 3,500 theaters. The concert film Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard and Soft—The Tour follows with a rollout across roughly 2,500 cinemas, while The Sheep Detectives rounds out the slate with an expected presence in about 3,000 theaters.

Theater Counts for May 1

Theater counts for May 8

Weekend projections: Michael dances to thriller $97-million opening

April 26, 2026

Michael is riding a huge wave of fan enthusiasm to a $97-million opening weekend, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday-morning projection. Among other records, it will have the best opening weekend of all time for a biopic, and the biggest opening of 2026 for an original film (a record it is likely to keep). With an additional $120.4 million from international markets (handled by Universal), it will have approximately $217.4 million worldwide by the end of the day on Sunday.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

In North America, Michael delivered the biggest opening weekend ever for any biopic, the largest opening of 2026 for an original non-franchise, non-superhero film, and Lionsgate’s sixth-biggest opening of all time, trailing only the first four Hunger Games films and Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part II. Globally, it also posted the biggest opening weekend ever for a musical biopic and scored the largest IMAX debut in the musical biopic category.

According to PostTrak, the overall audience this weekend in North America was 61% Female and 66% 25+. It has a 97% Popcornmeter score (the all time best rating for any music biopic, according to Lionsgate), along with an A-minus CinemaScore. The film is playing in 1,700 IMAX and other PLF locations domestically, and IMAX screens are contributing $24.4 million to its global total.

As far as our model is concerned, the $97-million domestic opening for Michael is more than 20% ahead of our prediction on Friday morning, reflecting strong word-of-mouth and enthusiasm for the film that wasn’t restricted to super-fans showing up for screenings on Wednesday and Thursday. As of this morning, the model thinks it will earn about $265 million domestically by the end of its run, which is well beyond the $216.3 million earned by Bohemian Rhapsody. That movie earned more than three times more internationally than it did domestically, while Michael is earning about 1.2 times its domestic number abroad. Right now, that points towards a final global total somewhere between $500 million and $600 million, but it’s early days.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Michael headed to weekend between $70 million and $80 million

April 24, 2026

Michael is heading for the biggest weekend ever for a music biopic, with its $12.6 million in previews (including $3.8 million from from Wednesday IMAX/PLF screenings) far ahead of the likes of Bohemian Rhapsody ($3.9 million) and Straight Outta Compton ($4.96 million).

This result isn’t a huge surprise, as we were seeing significant demand for the movie in the weeks leading up to its release…

The preview numbers are broadly in line with our already high expecations.

The $12.6 million in previews really speaks for itself. Technically, it’s higher than Oppenheimer’s record for the best previews for a biopic, although the advance screenings for both movies muddies the water a little bit. Regardless of the details, it’s a fantastic number that sets it up for a massive opening weekend.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

It’s possible Michael will have the second-best weekend of the year, although it’s probably somewhat front-loaded. Even with a great audience reaction, something in the mid-70s looks more likely than $80 million. However the details turn out, this is a monster weekend for a movie of this kind.

A couple of final notes. First, we should be returning to our usual schedule after a couple of weeks out for CinemaCon (more on that soon). Second, the weekend prediction above excludes a few wide releases, two of which will probably end up in the top 10. Look for those popping up in the lower reaches of the chart as we report over the weekend.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Michael moonwalks into 3,955 theaters

April 23, 2026

After a series of weekends dominated by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary, theaters are gearing up for a crowded frame, led by the long-anticipated Michael Jackson biopic, Michael.

Arriving in 3,955 theaters, Michael traces the life of the legendary pop icon, following his rise from a prodigious talent fronting the Jackson Five to a boundary-pushing artist driven by an unrelenting quest to become the world’s biggest entertainer. The film spotlights both his life beyond the stage and a series of defining performances from his early solo career. Michael is portrayed by his nephew, Jaafar Jackson, the son of Jermaine Jackson, with Colman Domingo and Nia Long co-starring as his parents, Joseph and Katherine Jackson. The film is directed by Antoine Fuqua, marking his first release since 2023’s The Equalizer 3.

Also opening wide this weekend is the British crime thriller Fuze, which turns central London into a pressure cooker after an unexploded World War II bomb is discovered at a construction site. As authorities scramble to evacuate the area, a crew of criminals seizes the moment to launch a bold, high-stakes heist amid the chaos. Directed by David Mackenzie, the film stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Theo James, Gugu Mbatha-Raw and Sam Worthington. Fuze will begin its theatrical run in 1,164 North American cinemas.

Also debuting this weekend are the thriller Over Your Dead Body and the Saudi-Arabian historical action epic Desert Warrior. Theater counts for both titles will be updated as they become available.

Rounding out the top five, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie continues to lead the box office while beginning a gradual roll-off, dropping to 552 theaters but still widely available in 3,732 venues. Project Hail Mary also sees a modest contraction, slipping from 3,820 to 3,510 theaters. Meanwhile, The Mummy holds steady at its opening footprint of 3,304 locations. Completing the group, You, Me & Tuscany claims the fifth-widest release, playing 2,106 theaters this weekend.

Looking ahead to next weekend, five new wide releases are set to enter theaters. The slate includes the animated feature Animal Farm, the shark survival-thriller Deep Water, the horror entry Hokum, and the anime film, That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Tears of the Azure Sea. Rounding out the lineup is The Devil Wears Prada 2, with the latter two titles expected to open in approximately 800 and 4,000 locations, respectively.

Theater Counts for April 24

Theater counts for May 1

The Numbers Business Report dives into box office tracking in the age of AI

April 8, 2026

In this month’s Business Report, we take a deep dive into how the use of LLMs is changing what we can learn about the demand for upcoming movies. The key finding is that the traffic logs on The Numbers reveal both the crawls of the site used to train AI models, and live search from their AI engines as end users ask questions needing more timely information. Over time, we began to see a potential opportunity in the traffic generated by these entities.

Our website currently receives approximately 10% of its traffic from regular users and another 10% from AI agents performing live searches. These requests present an opportunity to better understand what people care about, whether it's a particular movie, genre, franchise, actor, and so on. We’ve found that requests from AI agents correlate with box office success for future releases and can be translated into a measure of audience interest.

Below is a sample table showing the number of daily requests leading up to the theatrical release for three films released in the final months of 2025. The data reveals a clear pattern: request volume increases notably around trailer releases, reflecting growing audience awareness, and continues to rise steadily in the days leading up to the theatrical release.

Due to the nature of the data, the AI monitoring system can capture requests well before a movie is released. This allows us to measure consumer interest at different stages of a movie’s lifecycle—for example, when a movie is first added to our system (typically at the time of announcement), during teaser or trailer releases, or after cast announcements.

These early insights can translate into shifts in demand long before a movie’s release, giving industry stakeholders the opportunity to react to different scenarios, such as adjusting release strategies, improving promotional materials, or planning merchandise and event activations.

In terms of improving prediction models, this data can complement existing forecasting tools by providing an additional signal of consumer interest. It enables stakeholders to predict a movie’s performance up to a year, six months, or even days before release, as well as throughout the movie’s lifecycle after release.

Starting with our April report, we will begin incorporating Live AI search data into the Business Report, tracking the number of requests for upcoming releases. Beyond reporting, we are also exploring how this data can be integrated into the forecasting models you, our readers are currently working on, potentially adding a new and valuable signal for predicting audience interest and box office performance. Finally, if you have web sites or other endpoints exposed to AI agents, we’d be interested in seeing how your data could be incorporated into a combined model.

Our team will be demoing the latest iteration of AI search monitoring system at CinemaCon, from April 13 to 16. If you’ll be there, we’d love to meet. Please drop us an email to set up a time.

The data doesn’t end there. Read the report for our full, in-depth coverage.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of April’s wide releases, including Michael and The Devil Wears Prada: 2 (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are now publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be “under construction” for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!