The Numbers Business Report looks at the Oscars, theatrical ticket prices, and Premium Large Format

March 2, 2026

Last month’s edition of The Numbers Business Report looked back at 2025. This month, we look forward with our annual analysis of the Oscars, and a look at how IMAX and other Premium Large Formats are shaping the industry. In our 2026 prediction update, we discuss how middle-tier releases are increasingly influencing the industry. Our theatrical windows article looks at the final 2025 home market numbers. We also add a critical data point that feeds into our analysis for 2026—the average ticket price in 2025, and a look at the underlying inflation in theatrical ticket prices.

Another awards season is in full swing, and all eyes are once again on the Academy Awards. While everyone has personal favorites, we ground our predictions in data. For the second year in a row, we set out to determine whether historical performance across major industry awards can help predict the Best Picture winner for the 98th Academy Awards on March 15. More...

Weekend projections: Scream scores best opening for franchise and 2026

March 1, 2026

Scream 7 is continuing its great momentum through the weekend, beating our Friday-morning prediction by more than 10% to land with $64.1 million, according to Paramount’s Sunday projection. That’s easily a record for the franchise, beating Scream VI’s $44.4 million. More...

Weekend predictions: Scream 7 headed for franchise-record opening

February 27, 2026

Scream 7 looks set to eclipse Scream VI and set a new record opening weekend for the franchise. Our model points to an opening well over $50 million this weekend, based on our tracking and strong Thursday preview numbers. More...

Ticket prices increased 6% in 2025

February 27, 2026

With all the requisite numbers in, we can announce our estimate of the average ticket price in Q4 2025, as well as for the calendar year as a whole. Our model relies on average ticket price data reported in SEC filings from three major theater chains: AMC, Cinemark, and Cineplex. This data is modeled against historical averages previously reported by the Cinema United organization (through 2021) and The Cinema Foundation’s 2022 Theatrical Market Report. Beginning in 2025, we updated our model using additional data from our partners, resulting in revised estimates starting from 2022.

For Q4 2025, the three theater chains reported a decrease of around 2% in admissions revenue compared to Q4 2024. However, the average ticket price increased by approximately 7% relative to 2024 to hit an all-time high of $12.49 in the quarter. This rise in average ticket price can be partially attributed to growing interest in premium formats. In Q4, Avatar: Fire and Ash contributed significantly to the overall bump in prices. More...

Theater counts: GOAT fends off Scream 7 to secure third straight widest release

February 26, 2026

For the second consecutive weekend, it was “Wuthering Heights”, and GOAT who topped the domestic box office, only this time around, the latter took the top prize, edging out the former by just under $3 million over the three-day stretch, leaving newcomer, I Can Only Imagine 2 holding the third-place trophy, that film opening with $7.75 million. Looking ahead, a familiar face returns to theaters, quite literally. Ghostface is back as Scream 7 slices its way onto the big screen this weekend. More...

Weekend projections: GOAT sneaks a weekend win

February 22, 2026

Last weekend’s two major new releases are both holding well this time around, but GOAT will move from second to first place on the box office chart with a very good hold. Its 38% decline, coming off a holiday weekend, moves it ahead of “Wuthering Heights”, which itself is down “only” 57%. That would be considered OK for most movies, but it’s excellent for a romance title on the weekend after Valentine’s Day. I Can Only Imagine 2 will land third with a soft $8-million debut. More...

Weekend predictions: GOAT slight favorite on post-Valentine’s weekend

February 20, 2026

Any one of three movies could top the box office chart this weekend. GOAT starts out the slight favorite, since it won’t take quite the hit ”Wuthering Heights” will on this post-Valentine’s Day weekend. I Can Only Imagine 2 could pull off a surprise victory, though. More...

Theater counts: GOAT claims widest release in second frame, fends off a bevy of new arrivals

February 19, 2026

Three newcomers claimed the top three spots at the domestic box office last weekend, led by “Wuthering Heights”, which opened to $32.8 million over the three-day frame and $37.5 million across the extended Presidents Day holiday. GOAT followed with $27.2 million for the weekend and $35.12 million over four days, while Chris Hemsworth’s Crime 101 debuted in third with $14.25 million for the three-day stretch and $16.02 million through Monday. This weekend brings four additional wide releases into the marketplace, each aiming to shake up the current leaderboard. More...

Weekend projections: “Wuthering Heights” wins weekend, while all movies benefit from double-holiday weekend

February 15, 2026

As expected, “Wuthering Heights” is the big winner at the box office this weekend, with Warner Bros. pegging its 3-day opening at $34.8 million, and expecting $40 million over the four-day President’s Day weekend. That’s a bit behind our model’s Friday-morning prediction, largely because the love was spread around on Valentine’s Day. Rather than one must-see romantic movie, we have a lot of like-to-see couple-friendly movies, with Solo Mio doing particularly well on Saturday, along with Send Help, and even Crime 101. Family fare, led by GOAT’s excellent $26 million over three days, is also benefiting from the long weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: “Wuthering Heights” set to dominate Valentine’s Day weekend

February 13, 2026

“Wuthering Heights” should have little trouble topping the box office chart this weekend, but how high it will go depends heavily on how it does on Valentine”s Day, which, happily for the movie, falls on Saturday this year. GOAT will be second, and looking to do outsized business on Monday, President’s Day. More...

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