Theater counts: Moana sails into theaters, but Minions remains the widest release

July 2, 2026

With the United States’ 250th birthday celebrations and the World Cup dominating the weekend, Minions & Monsters posted a muted debut, earning $37M from 4,243 theaters over three days for a five‑day domestic opening of just over $62M. The film won’t get much breathing room in its sophomore frame as a trio of newcomers arrives, led by Disney’s live‑action Moana and the latest entry in the Evil Dead franchise, Evil Dead Burn.

Opening in 3,875 theaters this weekend, Disney’s live‑action Moana stars Australian newcomer Catherine Laga’aia as the beloved titular character. Set on the lush island of Motunui, the film follows a fearless young navigator who, after being chosen by the ocean, leaves her island to find the demigod Maui and restore the stolen heart of Te Fiti. Together they journey across the Pacific, facing monsters, magic, and mythic challenges as Moana discovers her own strength and destiny. The musical is directed by Thomas Kail, who made his directorial debut with another musical, 2020’s Hamilton. Playing Maui, the legendary demigod, is Dwayne Johnson, who also voiced Maui in the 2016 animated feature, Moana as well as 2024’s Moana 2.

Also making its theatrical debut this weekend is the horror entry Evil Dead Burn. The film follows a grieving woman who travels to her late husband’s family home in a remote woodland, only for the reunion to devolve into a nightmarish fight for survival when the Necronomicon unleashes a new wave of Deadites. The sixth installment in the Evil Dead franchise arrives on the heels of 2023’s Evil Dead Rise, which conjured $147M worldwide. Directed by Sébastien Vaniček in his second feature outing, Evil Dead Burn will be available in 3,004 North American theaters.

Landing in 1,000 theaters this weekend is the comedy, Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass. The film follows Gail Daughtry as her quiet life is upended after she unexpectedly wins a tabloid “celebrity sex pass,” catapulting her into sudden fame, media chaos, and a series of absurd encounters that force her to reconsider what she truly wants. Zoey Deutch stars as the title character.

Rounding out the top five widest releases this weekend is chart‑topper Minions & Monsters, which adds one theater to its opening footprint and is now playing in 4,244 locations. Toy Story 5, a $381M domestic performer, sheds 400 cinemas but remains widely available in 3,575 locations. Finally, Jon Erwin’s American Revolution drama Young Washington expands by 46 theaters, bringing its count to 2,771.

Worth noting is the wide expansion of The Invite. The comedy, starring Seth Rogen, Olivia Wilde (who also directs), Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton, opened in seven locations on June 26 before moving into 28 theaters last weekend, earning more than $1.37M along the way. The film is set to broaden significantly this weekend with a rollout to 1,610 venues.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the long‑awaited arrival of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey looms large. The epic action feature is projected to storm into roughly 3,800 North American theaters, including IMAX screens where available.

Theater Counts for July 10

Theater counts for July 17

The Numbers Business Report: Live AI search tracking, a mid-year update

July 9, 2026

We introduced our Live AI Search tracking in the March issue of The Numbers Business Report, and have been working on refining our collection and analysis of the numbers since then. This month, we show some early results in using these new statistics to predict opening weekend box office for upcoming movies.

Large language models such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity generally consist of two components: a crawler and a live search agent. Starting last year, we began tracking and gathering all requests coming from AI agents. We can then link these data points to our OpusData database, allowing us to monitor what AI agents are requesting and translate that into a signal of audience interest.

The charts below show the first results of our modeling. They show the correlation between ChatGPT live searches in the 28 days leading up to the release of a movie and the movie’s opening weekend.

To read our full analysis, subscribe to The Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of July’s wide releases, including The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Weekend projections: Minions off to slow $61.4-million five-day opening

July 5, 2026

Minions & Monsters will post a shockingly-low $36.4 million over the three-day weekend, and only $61.4 million over its opening five days. That’s a stark contrast with Minions: The Rise of Gru, which landed with $107 million over its three-day opening weekend starting July 1, 2022.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

The United States’ 250th birthday yesterday and the ongoing World Cup are both contributing to the disappointing numbers for Minions, and, as the chart shows, every movie missed its expected number this weekend. However, four of those films were within 1% of our model’s prediction, including Angel Studios’ Young Washington, which lands in third place with one of the studio’s best opening weekends.

Toy Story 5 was notably weak on its third weekend in theaters (although Disney will be pretty happy with the $366 million it has earned so far). So this might be simply a story of families going to July 4th celebrations and waiting until later in the week, or next weekend, to go to movies again. Universal might also be regretting opening Minions so soon after Toy Story, which means walk-up moviegoers have to choose between two well-established animated franchises. Whatever the cause of the poor result, Minions still has a chance to have a good long run. It’ll just need to show stronger legs than Toy Story over the next two weeks—a tall task.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend prediction: Minions struggling going into the weekend

July 3, 2026

Minions & Monsters is off to a shaky start at the box office, with just $25 million earned over its first two days. That’s about half of what Universal would have hoped for when the film was greenlit, although animated movies can sometimes strenthen considerably through the weekend.

The most famous example of a weekend take-off is Shrek 2, which had a very similar first two days to Minions & Monsters, but still managed to have a $108-million first weekend. As the table below shows, that is very much the exception, with a first-two-days vs. Friday–Sunday weekend multiplier typically closer to 1.6 than Shrek’s 5.2:

Using Shrek 2 as a comp is putting our finger on the scale a little, although the fact that this is July 4 weekend, and scorching temperatures could draw people to air-conditioned movie theaters, will probably help the Minions a little. At this point, $50 million would count as a good weekend though.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Minions storm in with 4,243-theater bow

July 2, 2026

Last weekend, Toy Story 5 held firm in first place, pulling in just over $70 million in its sophomore frame and lifting its 10‑day total to $298.07 million. Since then, the film has cruised past the $300 million milestone, reaching $326.74 million through 13 days of release. Challenging the reigning champ this weekend is newcomer Minions & Monsters, which bowed on Wednesday with a $14 million opening day.

Minions & Monsters follows James and Henry, two newly introduced Minions, as they stumble into 1920s Hollywood, accidentally become movie stars, lose everything, and then unleash real monsters while trying to make their own film. What begins as a chaotic rise to fame turns into a scramble to save the world from the creatures they inadvertently set loose. The film is directed by Pierre Coffin, who also directed such notable features such as Despicable Me, Despicable Me 2, Minions, and Despicable Me 3. The latest feature actually debuted in 3,740 theaters on Wednesday, and will expand into 4,243 cinemas beginning tomorrow, July 3.

Also opening in wide release this weekend and just in time for Independence Day is the founding-of-the-country film, Young Washington. The drama charts the early life of the man who, long before becoming the Father of a Nation, was a young soldier fighting simply to survive. Billed as the untold story of Washington’s formative years, the film will play in 2,700 theaters across North America.

Rounding out the top five widest releases this weekend, we see current box office leader, Toy Story 5 dropping 450 locations, but still widely available in 3,975 theaters. Last weekend’s newcomers, Supergirl and Jackass: Best and Last, hold steady at their opening counts of 3,602 and 2,855 cinemas, respectively, while Disclosure Day occupies the fifth widest release, showing in 2,702 theaters this weekend.

Looking ahead to next weekend we see the arrival of three new wide releases, including the highly-anticipated Moana and Evil Dead Burn, which are projected to launch in 3,900 and 3,000 locations, respectively.

Theater Counts for July 3

Theater counts for July 10

Weekend predictions: Toy Story should stay top as Supergirl falters

June 26, 2026

Supergirl is headed towards a moderate opening this weekend, with an opening more in line with The Marvels’ $46.1 million than Superman’s $125 million. With Toy Story 5 coming off a $160-million opening weekend, the odds favor Disney winning the weekend and Warner Bros. pondering what might have been.

Here’s a run-down of our model’s predictions for the weekend…

The numbers aren’t a total disaster for Supergirl, but even $50 million isn’t guaranteed for the weekend, and its reviews aren’t good enough to portend great legs. That points towards a final domestic gross between $100 million and $150 million. It’s too soon to say much about its international performance, but Warner Bros. announced $5.2 million so far, which suggests Supergirl is going to earn about as much abroad as it does in North America. So $300 million worldwide might be optimistic for its final gross—not great for a movie that cost $170 million to make.

Given that this is objectively a decent (although not perfect) movie, the blame here falls mostly on Warner Bros.’ marketing of the movie.

At the other end of the budget scale, Jackass: Best and Last can get away with a much more modest opening…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

It’s worth keeping an eye on Leviticus this weekend. It didn’t post great numbers when it opened, and we don’t have an official theater count for its second weekend. Its day-to-day performance has been very good since it opened, and it could stay in the top ten with a very small drop on its second weekend.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Toy Story swats away Supergirl and holds onto the crown as the widest release

June 25, 2026

Toy Story 5 blasted into theaters last weekend, scoring a franchise‑best $160 million over the three‑day frame and climbing to a six‑day haul of $216 million. The box office race tightens this weekend as three new wide releases enter the fray, including the superheroine tentpole, Supergirl, and the reality-prank film, Jackass: Best and Last.

Supergirl stars Milly Alcock as Kara Zor‑El, who, unlike her cousin Superman—sent to Earth and raised by loving parents—was left behind on the remnants of Krypton. For the first fourteen years of her life, Kara survived alone on a fragment of the planet that drifted through space. On her 21st birthday, she sets off across the galaxy with Krypto the Superdog and crosses paths with Ruthye Marye Knoll, a young warrior seeking vengeance for her father’s murder. Together, they pursue the warlord Krem of the Yellow Hills. Kara’s journey forces her to confront who she is without her powers, especially on a world under a red sun where her Kryptonian abilities fade. The Craig Gillespie–directed film opens in 3,602 theaters, including IMAX locations where available.

As noted, the Jackass gang is back for one last round of cinematic lunacy. Fronted by longtime ringleader Johnny Knoxville, the film strings together a new slate of skits, stunts, and the kind of stupid pranks only this crew could conjure. Rolling out in 2,855 theaters, the mayhem is once again overseen by Jackass architect Jeff Tremaine, returning to direct what’s billed as the final chapter, Jackass: Best and Last.

Opening in 772 movie houses is the World War II action film, Lucky Strike. The film stars Scott Eastwood as a soldier trapped behind enemy lines during the last major German offensive during WW II, which will become known as The Battle of the Bulge. Armed only with his Motorola SCR-300 radio, a new technology only battle-ready near the end of the war, he must use his wits and spy craft to thwart the advancing Nazi Panzer army and find his way back home.

Rounding out the top five widest movies this weekend is current chart-topper, Toy Story 5, holding its massive 4,425‑theater footprint and once again claiming the crown as the frame’s widest release. Disclosure Day slides from 3,824 locations last weekend to 3,357, while $222 million earner Obsession ranks fourth, playing in 2,965 venues.

Looking ahead to next weekend, we see the arrival of two new films. The long-awaited release of the animated Minions & Monsters will open on Wednesday, July 1 in approximately 4,000 theaters, while Young Washington is set to hit theaters on July 3, just in time for the Independence Day Holiday. We will update the count for Young Washington as it becomes available.

Theater Counts for June 26

Theater counts for July 1

Weekend box office: Toy Story tops weekend with franchise-best $160 million

June 22, 2026

Toy Story 5 dominated the market at the weekend, posting a spectacular $159.7 million, according to Disney. That’s the best weekend ever for the franchise, topping Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million debut back in 2019. It also overtakes The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to have the best weekend of 2026 so far.

Here are the official studio numbers for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting).

Toy Story 5 opened to exceptionally strong audience reception, with Rotten Tomatoes reporting a 95% “Verified Hot” audience score from more than 2,500 verified moviegoers, alongside a 93% Certified Fresh critics’ rating. Early audience polling from ComScore’s PostTrak showed top-tier satisfaction, including 5 out of 5 stars from parents and 4.5 out of 5 stars from both general audiences and children. Overall, 91% of viewers rated the film positively, with 63% describing it as “excellent.” CinemaScore reinforced the film’s strong debut, awarding it an “A,” continuing Pixar’s consistent streak of A-range grades across its releases.

Premium viewing formats played a significant role in the film’s opening weekend performance, accounting for 40% of total box office revenue. Standard 2D screenings made up the majority at 60%, while premium large format (PLF) 2D contributed 19% and IMAX 2D added 8%. In total, 2D formats represented 89% of ticket sales, compared to 11% for 3D formats. Audience demographics reflected broad appeal, with a gender split of 57% female and 43% male. The film attracted a diverse audience, including 37% Caucasian, 32% Hispanic, 13% African American, 9% Asian, and 9% Native American or other groups. Age distribution skewed toward families and younger adults, led by viewers under 12 (25%), followed by ages 25–34 (22%) and 35–44 (20%).

Internationally, Toy Story 5 delivered strong opening results across key markets, led by Mexico with $26.6 million, followed by the United Kingdom at $20.0 million and China at $18.0 million. In Europe, France contributed $7.2 million, Spain $5.5 million, and Italy $3.5 million, while Australia added $6.9 million. Latin America proved particularly robust, with Brazil and Korea each generating $6.1 million, Argentina $5.4 million, Colombia $4.2 million, and Central America $3.7 million, underscoring the film’s broad global appeal.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Toy Story eyeing best opening of the year

June 19, 2026

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks set to lose its crown as the biggest opener of 2026, with Toy Story 5 heading to an opening well over $150 million.

Here’s a run-down of our model’s predictions for the weekend…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Toy Story 5 rockets into 4,425 theaters on debut

June 18, 2026

After a softer frame last weekend, business snaps back into high gear as three new wide releases hit theaters, led by Toy Story 5, which looks to add to the franchise’s $3.2‑billion‑plus global haul. Also bowing this weekend are the Hugh Jackman–led The Death of Robin Hood and the supernatural horror, Leviticus.

Pixar’s Toy Story 5 reunites Woody, Buzz Lightyear, Jessie, and the rest of the gang as their roles are upended by Lilypad, a brand‑new tablet device with her own ideas about what’s best for Bonnie, raising the question of whether playtime will ever be the same. Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, and Joan Cusack return as Woody, Buzz, and Jessie, respectively. Opening in 4,425 theaters, the film is directed by Andrew Stanton, who co‑wrote the original Toy Story and previously helmed the animated favorites, Finding Nemo and Finding Dory. The 4,425 count is the largest opening footprint of any film since the debut of Inside Out 2’s 4,440 start back in June of 2024.

Landing in 1,782 locations is The Death of Robin Hood, which finds the legendary outlaw gravely wounded after a battle he believed would be his last. Taken in by a mysterious woman, he’s offered a final shot at redemption. Hugh Jackman stars alongside Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, and Murray Bartlett in this 12th‑century action‑drama. Michael Sarnoski directs, marking his first feature since 2024’s A Quiet Place: Day One.

Debuting in 1,075 theaters is the supernatural horror Leviticus, following two gay teenagers forced to escape a violent entity that takes the form of the person they desire most, each other. Australian actors Joe Bird and Stacy Clausen topline the film as Naim and Ryan, with Adrian Chiarella directing his first full‑length feature.

Rounding out the top five widest releases is weekend chart-topper, Disclosure Day, holding steady at its 3,824‑theater opening count. Obsession is still humming along in 3,053 venues this weekend. Occupying the fourth widest release is Backrooms, shedding 553 locations but still playing in a wide 2,851 theaters, while Scary Movie can still be seen on the big screen, showing in 2,725 cinemas.

Looking ahead to next weekend, four new wide releases are set to hit the marketplace. Supergirl is expected to soar into approximately 3,600 locations. Also opening June 26 are Jackass: Best and Last, Lucky Strike; as well as BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War — The Calamity, which opens on Thursday. Jackass: Best and Last is projected to debut in about 2,800 theaters.

Theater Counts for June 19

Theater counts for June 26

Weekend projections: Disclosure Day dominates slower weekend

June 14, 2026

After a string of strong weekends at the box office, things are more muted this time around, although a good opening for Disclosure Day, and another good hold for Obsession means this is still a decent weekend for theaters.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

Disclosure Day’s debut is good for an original movie, and technically among Steven Spielberg’s best opening weekends—although that’s largely because of ticket price inflation over the past 30 or 40 years. It is landing right in line with our Friday prediction, suggesting average word of mouth. That’s perhaps slightly disappointing given this is a Spielberg pic, but there’s plenty of time for it to pick up steam over the next few weeks.

The real damage to the overall numbers this weekend comes from disappointing holds for Scary Movie and Masters of the Universe. Both movies will drop more than 70% from their opening weekends, which leaves the door open for Obsession to post a second-place finish on its fifth weekend in theaters. Its $19 million is higher than the $17.2 million it earned on opening weekend back on May 15.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Disclosure Day looking at opening in the 40s

June 12, 2026

Disclosure Day should top the box office chart relatively easily this weekend, and technically will log one of Steven Spielberg’s top five opening weekends, assuming it beats the $41.8 million earned by Ready Player One when it opened in 2018. Ajusted for inflation, this is a middle-of-the-pack Spielberg opening, but by any filmmakers standard it’s a great start for a wholly original movie. Our model is predicting it will register something in the mid-$40 millions this weekend. Its net production budget makes recovering its costs still a possibility, with Spielberg most likely bringing the film in at around $115 million after tax incentives.

Here’s a run-down of our model’s predictions for Disclosure Day…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Obsession looks likely to pull off the remarkable feat of finishing in second place in its fifth weekend in theaters, and will almost certainly earn more this weekend that it did when it opened. Although the model doesn’t think they will be major forces at the box office, The Furious and Stop! That! Train! both have a shot at landing towards the tail end of the top 10. We don’t have official predictions for them, however.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report asks, where have all the indie films gone?

June 11, 2026

Movies from the major studios may get most of the buzz, but by the raw numbers, most movies that get made and distributed have more humble origins. In the latest The Numbers Business Report, we look at the universe of movies produced and distributed for sale, either in theaters, on a digital transactional platform, or a subscription streaming service in the domestic market (the United States and Canada) between 2021 and 2025. In this study, we call these “commercial releases,” in contrast to “ad-supported content,” which includes content produced for platforms like YouTube, and also movies released solely on AVOD services.

What we’ve found is a tale of two markets. On the one hand, the theatrical market has shown growth over the past five years, with 101 domestically-produced and released narrative features earning over $1 million at the box office in 2021, and 160 such movies in 2025. With new distribution technologies making it easier than ever to get movies into theaters, the total number of domestically-produced narrative features getting any sort of theatrical release has also increased, from 494 in 2021 to 598 in 2025.

The increase in that number contrasts with a steep decline among direct-to-digital titles. Movies bypassing theaters, but still having a commercial release, fell from 1,427 in 2022 to 721 last year. That’s a decline of nearly 50% in just three years.

Subscribe to The Business Report for details on how we compiled the data, and what we think is happening to cause this remarkable shift in the independent film business in such a short time.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of June’s wide releases, including Disclosure Day and Toy Story 5 (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be ”under construction“ for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!