Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Bests Wrinkle in Time, in Disney vs. Disney Battle

March 11, 2018

A Wrinkle in Time got out the gate a little more slowly than hoped for this weekend, and Disney is projecting an opening weekend of $33.3 million, as of Sunday morning. That’s actually in line with our prediction on Thursday of just under $35 million, but well below what pre-release interest in the film would have made seem possible. That relatively subdued debut left the door open for Black Panther, which will pick up another $41.1 million this weekend to top the chart, and continues breaking records.

Panther will pass $550 million in just 24 days on Sunday, making it the third-fastest film to that milestone, with only the last two Star Wars movies, The Force Awakens (which performed the feat in 11 days), and The Last Jedi (22 days), ahead of it. Its $41.1 million weekend is the fourth-best for a film in its fourth weekend in release, and third-best for a film in its fourth weekend of wide release (the best ever fourth weekend was American Sniper’s $89.3 million in the weekend it went into wide release).

By the way, The Shape of Water is enjoying a spike at the box office on the back of its Oscar wins last Sunday, and will have the 50th-best 15th weekend of all time with $2.4 million. That’s up 63% from last weekend, and takes the films domestic total to $61 million.

This weekend’s other new releases had mixed fortunes. The Strangers: Prey at Night had the best start, with $10.48 million from 2,464 theaters. That’s enough for third place, and right in line with Aviron’s previous release, Kidnap, which debuted with $10.0 million back in August. Getting a toe-hold in the market is a challenge for new distributors, and those are impressive figures.

Less impressive are the debuts of The Hurricane Heist, which starts out with $3.15 million, and Gringo, with $2.63 million. Thoroughbreds is looking marginally better, with $1.225 million from 549 theaters, but will need exceptional word-of-mouth to get much of a run in theaters.

- Weekend estimates
- Marvel Cinematic Universe franchise history
- Biggest fourth weekends of all time
- Fastest films to $550 million domestic box office
- Black Panther daily tracking vs. $650 million-plus movies
- Best 15th weekends

- A Wrinkle in Time Comparisons
- The Strangers: Prey at Night Comparisons
- The Hurricane Heist Comparisons
- Gringo Comparisons
- Red Sparrow Comparisons
- Game Night Comparisons
- Peter Rabbit Comparisons
- Death Wish Comparisons
- Annihilation Comparisons
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Comparisons

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Black Panther, Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi, A Wrinkle in Time, The Shape of Water, Gringo, Thoroughbreds, The Strangers: Prey at Night, The Hurricane Heist, Marvel Cinematic Universe