June 4th, 2018
This is a busier week than usual on the home market, but that’s only because there are a higher than usual number of box office flops coming out the same week. The biggest box office hit of the week is A Wrinkle in Time, which did okay here, but bombed internationally. I’m still waiting for a screener to see if it is at least worth a rental. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there’s My Hero Academia: Season Two, Part Two and Thoroughbreds on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with Thoroughbreds, but both are worth owning.
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May 29th, 2018
This is one of the shortest lists I can remember. Not only are there only 8 releases in the main section, many of them would be secondary releases, at best, during a normal week. That’s not to say there are no releases worth checking out. This list is led by Annihilation on Blu-ray Combo Pack, while the second best new release is ... probably a secondary VOD title?
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April 1st, 2018
The gulf between blockbusters and also-rans could hardly be starker these days. Since the release of Black Panther to a whopping $202 million on February 16, three movies that could have caught the general public’s imagination have arrived on the scene, and earned somewhere between a fifth and a seventh of that on opening weekend. Ready Player One is the most successful among them, with an opening of $41.2 million predicted by Warner Bros. as of this morning. That compares favorably to the openings of A Wrinkle in Time (which started out with $33.1 million), and Pacific Rim: Uprising ($28.1 million), and is, in fact, the best weekend in 2018 for a movie not called Black Panther, but it barely starts to chip away at considerable marketing costs, let alone a reported $150 million production budget.
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March 20th, 2018
As predicted, Black Panther remained in first place on the weekend chart. Tomb Raider had an okay opening in second place, while I Can Only Imagine was the biggest positive surprise of the weekend. Love, Simon had a solid opening, especially compared to its production budget. The less said about 7 Days in Entebbe, the better. Overall, the weekend box office was down 4.8% from last weekend to just $132 million. This is 49% lower than this weekend last year. A 49% decline usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but in this case it’s due to Beauty and the Beast’s debut. 2018 is still ahead of 2017, albeit by a fraction of last week’s lead at just $66 million or 2.8%. In fact, with a margin of just $2.46 billion to $2.39 billion, it is very likely 2018 will lose its lead before the next weekend begins.
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March 17th, 2018
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As expected, Tomb Raider opened in first place with $9.06 million on Friday. However, this won’t be enough to stay ahead of Black Panther for long. Its reviews are nearly 50% positive, while it earned just a B from CinemaScore. A $23 million to $24 million opening isn’t a bad start for this time of year, but it is far from impressive for a film that reportedly cost between $90 million and $106 million.
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March 15th, 2018
Another week and another film trying to dethrone Black Panther. This week, it’s Tomb Raider’s chance to finally remove Black Panther from first place on the weekend chart. I don’t like its chances. The only other truly wide release of the week is Love, Simon, which should have a solid, but not spectacular opening. There are two other films with a shot at earning a spot in the top ten: I Can Only Imagine and 7 Days in Entebbe. This weekend last year, Beauty and the Beast opened with nearly $175 million. That’s more than the entire box office is going to earn this weekend. 2018 is going to get crushed.
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March 13th, 2018
For the first time ever, the top two films at the weekend box office were both directed by African-American directors. That’s amazing and should be the big story. Unfortunately for A Wrinkle in Time, the big story is Black Panther’s continued box office dominance, as that film earned first place over Wrinkle with $40.82 million to $33.12 million. Disney should be happy with both results. The only other new release that didn’t bomb was The Strangers: Prey at Night, which earned third place with $10.40 million, which is excellent for a low-budget horror movie. The less said about The Hurricane Heist and Gringo, the better. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend to $138 million. Compared to this weekend last year, the box office fell 16%. Year-to-date, 2018 has earned $2.27 billion, which is still 8.3% or $170 million ahead of 2017’s pace. That lead could be cut in half by this time next week.
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March 11th, 2018
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A Wrinkle in Time got out the gate a little more slowly than hoped for this weekend, and Disney is projecting an opening weekend of $33.3 million, as of Sunday morning. That’s actually in line with our prediction on Thursday of just under $35 million, but well below what pre-release interest in the film would have made seem possible. That relatively subdued debut left the door open for Black Panther, which will pick up another $41.1 million this weekend to top the chart, and continues breaking records.
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March 10th, 2018
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A Wrinkle in Time earned first place on Friday with $10.21 million, which was enough for first place over Black Panther by a small margin. Unfortunately, this lead likely won’t last long, as the film’s reviews are only 42% positive and it only managed a B from CinemaScore. This is the best scores among the new releases this weekend, but not good for a family film and will hurt its legs. Look for a $33 million opening weekend.
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March 9th, 2018
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A Wrinkle in Time opened with $1.3 million during its previews. This might seem like a low amount; however, it is a live action family film and those tend to struggle during previews, but bounce back during the weekend. For example, Paddington 2 only managed $325,000 during its previews, but it went on to make $11 million during its opening weekend. A Wrinkle in Time won’t have the same legs, because its reviews are mixed. That said, it has a shot at first place with $35 million or more, which is in line with what we predicted.
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March 8th, 2018
There are four wide releases coming out this week, but only one of them, A Wrinkle in Time, has a shot at dethroning Black Panther. Only one other, The Strangers: Prey at Night, has a shot at the top five. The other two, Gringo and The Hurricane Heist, are just hoping to not embarrass themselves. This weekend last year, the top two movies earned nearly $100 million. This year, the top five likely won’t earn that much. 2018 will lose the year-over-year comparison, but hopefully it will be close.
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March 1st, 2018
February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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July 17th, 2017
Fantasy adventure starring Storm Reid, Oprah Winfrey, Reese Witherspoon, and Mindy Kaling directed by Ava Duvernay opens March 9, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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