This graph shows David Oyelowo’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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Mild-mannered businessman Harold Soyinka finds himself in Mexico, and at the mercy of his back-stabbing business colleagues back home, local drug lords, and a morally-conflicted black-ops mercenary. Crossing the line from law-abiding citizen to wanted criminal, Harold battles to survive his increasingly dangerous situation in ways that raise the question: Is he out of his depth—or two steps ahead?
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I think it is fair to say Queen of Katwe is an Oscar-bait movie. It is an inspirational movie about someone rising up from challenging circumstances. However, it struggled in theaters and went nowhere during Awards Season. Is there a problem with the film? Or was it released too soon for Awards Season and without Oscar buzz wasn’t able to find an audience in theaters?
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Like last week, approximately 30 films open in limited release this week. That is far too many and all but ensures most will not find an audience. Furthermore, it means I have to be a little more liberal when it comes to pruning releases that don’t have enough buzz to talk about. There are lots of films that still made the cut, including a few highlights: The Age of Shadows, Audrie & Daisy, The Dressmaker, The Lovers And The Despot, My Blind Brother, and Queen of Katwe. Some of these are playing on VOD, so they will go nowhere in theaters. Several are aiming for Oscars, including Queen of Katwe, which will expand semi-wide next week.
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There are quite a few limited releases on this week’s list that are earning good reviews. Little Men is the biggest new release, but there are many that should be seen. This includes The Little Prince, which is on Netflix starting today.
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As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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Selma is the latest film about African-American history that I've reviewed in the past few years. Twelve Years a Slave and The Book of Negroes where both about slavery, while Selma is about the civil rights movement. The change of setting will be nice and I'm hoping the film will be just as good without being as difficult to watch.
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A Most Violent Year came out last Awards Season and earned some serious pre-release buzz. After all, it stars Jessica Chastain. She's only been acting four roughly five years since she made Jolene, but since then, five of her previous films have earned some measure of Awards Season Buzz. Unfortunately, nothing really came from that buzz and the film wasn't able to expand truly wide. Did it deserve better? Or is the term "Busted Oscar-bait" applicable?
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The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last week and I'm getting to them a little late, because I needed to organize the whole Awards Season stories. Firstly, I've decided to use the year the movies were released not the year the awards are handed out, unlike what we did last year. This means both will have 2014 as the year. Not ideal, but it is better to fix the mistake now than carry on making it. Secondly, the headlines are just going to be the name of the Awards and either nominations or winners. This will make it easier for readers to find later on. As for the Independent Spirit Awards nominations, Birdman led the way with 6 nods, while Boyhood, Nightcrawler, and Selma were right behind with 5 each.
During the holiday season of 2011, Tom Cruise starred in Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. I thought it was arguably the best action movie of the year and it became the stars biggest hit globally and his best domestic hit in a decade (not counting a cameo in Goldmember). A year later, Jack Reacher opened with barely a fraction of the buzz. I was one of the most Bullish analysts and I was only predicting $75 million. The film did pull in $80 million domestically, which is better than expected, but nothing compared to MI:IV. Is it really that much weaker? Or did it struggle in comparison, because it wasn't part of a popular franchise.
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Lincoln was an Oscar contender right from the very beginning. Steven Spielberg directing a movie about Abraham Lincoln starring Daniel Day-Lewis. Of course it was an Oscar contender. Lincoln earned twelve Oscar nominations and earned two wins. Did the film deserve these awards? Or did it coast on reputation alone?
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The Independent Spirit Awards has a special place in the Awards Season. The nominations are the unoffficial start of Awards Season, but the actual awards aren't given out until Oscar weekend, so they are the beginning at the end of Awards Season. They also help out a lot of limited releases that would otherwise not get enough buzz, although they are not so good at predicting Oscar wins. This year, two films tied for most nominations, Moonrise Kingdom and The Silver Linings Playbook, both of which earned five nominations. They weren't the only films to earn multiple nominations though.
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