Home Market Releases for April 9th, 2019

April 11th, 2019

We’ve hit the summer doldrums on the home market, as there are no major winter releases that haven’t come out and none of 2019’s early releases were amazing, so there’s going to be a large gap between monster hits. One of the biggest hits is On the Basis of Sex, which is also one of the best. Another contender for Pick of the Week is Mirai while last week’s Archer: The Complete Season Nine: Danger Island would have been a contender last week, if the screener had arrived on time. In the end, it wasn’t a particularly close race and the Oscar-nominated movie won. More...

Home Market Releases for March 26th, 2019

March 27th, 2019

It is an amazing week for home releases. Not only do we have the biggest hit of last winter on this week’s list, but Aquaman is actually worth owning. That’s only the second time I can say that about the D.C.E.U. Additionally, there are a huge number of contenders for Pick of the Week, ranging from Oscar contenders (If Beale Street Could Talk on Blu-ray Combo Pack); limited releases (The Miseducation of Cameron Post: Special Edition Blu-ray); animated imports (My Hero Academia: Two Heroes on Blu-ray); TV movie aimed at teens (Kim Possible on DVD); and classics (For A Few Dollars More: Special Edition Blu-ray). It was an exceptionally close call, but in the end, I went with If Beale Street Could Talk. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Glass Wins, Dragon Ball was Super

January 22nd, 2019

It was a mixed weekend with Glass missing admittedly high expectations, but a lot of the rest of the top five thrived. This includes Dragon Ball Super: Broly, which wasn’t even expected to open in the top five. Overall, the box office rose 8.6% from last weekend to $130 million. This is 5.0% less than the same weekend last year, which means 2019’s losing streak continues. This is more disappointing, as the misalignment in holidays gave 2019 a huge advantage this weekend. Year-to-date, 2019 is below 2018 by $100 million. In fact, 2019 is off to the worst start since 2012 or 2011, depending on if you take ticket price inflation into account. That said, it is still very early in the year and there are several nearly guaranteed monster hits on the way. More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass Cracks, Still Tops Chart

January 20th, 2019

Glass’s box office potential has continued to drop and it is now estimated to earn $40.59 million over the three-day weekend and $47.06 million over four. The three-day opening is barely ahead of Split’s opening weekend and it is certainly lower in terms of tickets sold. Furthermore, Glass’s reviews and B-rating from CinemaScore are clearly already having a negative effect on the film’s legs. That said, the film only cost $20 million to make and while Universal is only handling the domestic run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers. The film’s international run is being handled by Disney, mostly, and they reported $48.5 million in 55 markets. The only market the film hasn’t opened in is China, which is the only international market Disney is not handling the distribution. According to Disney, the film is 13% ahead of Split internationally, but again, given its weaker reviews and its CinemaScore, its legs will likely be short enough that Glass will finish with less than its predecessor. Then again, it cost just $20 million to make and will likely hit $100 million worldwide on Monday, so everyone involved will be happy with this result. More...

Friday Estimates: Glass is Looking a Little More Fragile

January 19th, 2019

It looks like Glass will open on the low end of expectations with $16.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $50 million over the four-day weekend. Its reviews are clearly not helping, while the film only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is down from the B plus Split earned. That said, the film only cost $20 million to make and Universal’s share of the opening weekend will be more than that. Unless the film’s advertising budget is unreasonably large, then the movie will break even just on its domestic numbers. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Glass Shatter Franchise Records?

January 17th, 2019

It is MLK day long weekend, the first long weekend of the year. On the one hand, there’s only one new release trying to take advantage of that. On the other hand, that one film is Glass, which is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month. In fact, it could earn more over the next four days than any other January film earns in total. On a side note, Dragon Ball Super: Broly opened on Wednesday earning $7 million. It won’t earn that much over the weekend, but depending on how many screenings it has in how many theaters over the weekend, it could sneak into the top ten. That would be something amazing for Anime. This weekend last year was the weekend after MLK Day, so the misalignment in holidays should give 2019 its first win of the year. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Upside Surprises Landing on Top Earning STX its First First Place

January 15th, 2019

The first major surprise of the year happened over the weekend, as The Upside beat expectations earning first place with $20.36 million. The overall box office fell 14% from last weekend dropping to $119 million. This is 25% lower than the same weekend last year, but that was MLK Day long weekend, so this kind of difference was expected. More...

Weekend Estimates: Upside Surprises as Box Office Slows

January 13th, 2019

It wasn’t exactly a great weekend at the box office, but The Upside was the rare exception. The film is estimated to open with $19.59 million. The audiences clearly liked the film better than critics did, as its reviews are mixed, while it got an A from CinemaScore. This makes sense, as the most common complaint from critics were the clichés. The average moviegoer only sees one movie in a theater every other month, whereas the average critic will see two or more movies a week. Clichés are a lot less tolerable when you see them ten times as often as part of your job. The film’s estimates are much better than its predictions and great for a film that cost $37.5 million to make. Furthermore, the news is even better for STX Entertainment, as they didn’t spend nearly that much on the domestic rights, so they will be in the black very soon. More...

Friday Estimates: Box Office is Turned Upside Down

January 12th, 2019

The Upside surprised box office analysts with $6.95 million on Friday, knocking Aquaman out of first place on the daily chart. This is very likely enough to knock it out of first place on the weekend chart as well, becoming STX’s first number one hit. Most critics didn’t like the movie, but few hated it. Audiences, on the other hand, loved the movie, giving it an A from CinemaScore. If this translates into long legs, then it could earn first place with as much as $20 million, but $19 million is more likely at this point. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Dog-gone-it

January 11th, 2019

The Upside was the surprise winner of last night’s previews, as it earned $1.1 million. Its reviews are not going to help its legs, but perhaps its word-of-mouth will be better. We will have to wait for the CinemaScore for that, but I think it will top our $12 million prediction, which is good news for STX Entertainment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is Dog’s Home at the Top of the Box Office?

January 10th, 2019

There are three or four new releases that should reach the top ten, depending on how you look at things. A Dog’s Way Home is by far the biggest of these and has a not unreasonable shot at opening in first place. I think Aquaman will defend its crown, but it should at least be close. The Upside is the only other new release with a better than 50/50 shot of earning a spot in the top five. Replicas, on the other hand, is widely expected to bomb. The last “new” release is On the Basis of Sex, which is expanding nearly truly wide and it has an outside chance of earning a spot in the top five. This weekend last year was MLK Day long weekend. If 2019 doesn’t lose the year-over-year comparison by more than 20%, then it will be a reason to celebrate. More...

Preview: January

January 1st, 2019

December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases. More...

A Dog’s Way Home Trailer

October 15th, 2018

Canine drama starring Barry Watson and Ashley Judd opens January 11, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...