Weekend Estimates: Upside Surprises as Box Office Slows
January 13, 2019
It wasn’t exactly a great weekend at the box office, but The Upside was the rare exception. The film is estimated to open with $19.59 million. The audiences clearly liked the film better than critics did, as its reviews are mixed, while it got an A from CinemaScore. This makes sense, as the most common complaint from critics were the clichés. The average moviegoer only sees one movie in a theater every other month, whereas the average critic will see two or more movies a week. Clichés are a lot less tolerable when you see them ten times as often as part of your job. The film’s estimates are much better than its predictions and great for a film that cost $37.5 million to make. Furthermore, the news is even better for STX Entertainment, as they didn’t spend nearly that much on the domestic rights, so they will be in the black very soon.
Aquaman is falling faster than expected, down an estimated 44% to $17.27 million over the weekend for a total of $287.86 million after four weeks of release. Internationally, it performed better earning $27.9 million over the weekend pushing its totals to $732.4 million internationally and $1.02 billion worldwide. That is an impressive feat.
A Dog’s Way Home is missing the low end of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $11.3 million. That said, this isn’t a bad start for a film that cost $18 million to make and with good reviews and an A minus from CinemaScore, it should have better than average legs and eventually break even.
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse is earning a solid fourth place with $9.0 million over the weekend. Its domestic tally will reach $147.8 million, while it will crack $300 million worldwide. The film cost $90 million to make and Sony’s share of the advertising push is likely less than that, so they could have already broken even. If not, then the film will break even very early in its home market push.
It looks like fifth place will go to Escape Room with $8.9 million, although it might actually manage fourth place when final numbers show up. The film’s two-week running tally is $32.4 million, which is very likely more than it cost to make and advertise, meaning Sony should have a money-maker on its hands. It is still too early to tell how it will do internationally, but if it can merely match its domestic box office numbers, it will break even before it hits the home market.
On the Basis of Sex is earning $6.23 million in just under 2,000 theaters. If estimates hold, then the film will have earned $10.56 million, including its limited release run. This is fantastic, especially since the film hasn’t been an Awards Season player. Its reviews and its A from CinemaScore should help its legs and while it won’t expand significantly beyond this point, it should last long enough to be one of the biggest limited release hits from 2018.
And then there’s Replicas. Right now, the film’s opening weekend is just $2.5 million, putting it well below the Mendoza Line. Furthermore, its reviews are terrible and it only managed a C from CinemaScore, which was by far the worst result of the week. The best case scenario at this point is a quick exit from theaters and no lasting memory, so it doesn’t hurt anyone’s career.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Aquaman, Replicas, The Upside, A Dog’s Way Home, On the Basis of Sex, Escape Room