Weekend Predictions: Is Dog’s Home at the Top of the Box Office?
January 10, 2019
There are three or four new releases that should reach the top ten, depending on how you look at things. A Dog’s Way Home is by far the biggest of these and has a not unreasonable shot at opening in first place. I think Aquaman will defend its crown, but it should at least be close. The Upside is the only other new release with a better than 50/50 shot of earning a spot in the top five. Replicas, on the other hand, is widely expected to bomb. The last “new” release is On the Basis of Sex, which is expanding nearly truly wide and it has an outside chance of earning a spot in the top five. This weekend last year was MLK Day long weekend. If 2019 doesn’t lose the year-over-year comparison by more than 20%, then it will be a reason to celebrate.
Aquaman has been in first place at the box office since it debuted three weeks ago and it will remain in first place this weekend. The lack of direct competition will help the film’s chances, but at this point, everyone’s back from Holidays, so the target audience will be busy getting back in the swing of things. Look for $19 million over the weekend pushing its running tally to just shy of $290 million. It will get to $300 million domestically, likely next Friday or Saturday.
A Dog’s Way Home could open anywhere from $12 million domestically to $20 million. On the positive side, its reviews are good, for a family film. Its Tomatometer Score is 71% positive, but the average review given by critics is just 5.2 out of 10, so most critics are not enthusiastic about their praise. It’s fine is about as strong a statement as you can make. That said, there’s not much direct competition and films about dogs have been relatively reliable performers at the box office recently. I don’t think it will really compete for first place, but a $15 million opening should please Sony.
The Upside was originally made by The Weinstein Company, but its initial release was canceled when the Harvey Weinstein sex scandal erupted. The reason for this delay shouldn’t hurt the film’s chances, but the reviews likely will. Granted, it is in the opposite situation as A Dog’s Way Home is. While its Tomatometer Score is just 33% positive, its average review is 5 out of 10, so while most critics don’t like the movie, most are not aggressive in this dislike. Look for a $12 million opening.
There should be a bundle of holdovers next fighting for the remaining two spots in the top five. Mary Poppins Returns will likely earn fourth place with $9 million; however Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse should be right behind with just under $9 million. Both Escape Room and Bumblebee could surprise earning fifth place, but it is more likely they will miss out with $8 million each.
This gets us to On the Basis of Sex, which is expanding almost truly wide this weekend. The film’s reviews are not award-worthy and the film has done nothing during Awards Season so far. However, its legs in limited release have been impressive. It has a remote shot at earned $10 million over the weekend. I think that’s a bit too optimistic, but I wouldn’t be that surprised if it got there. I’m going with a prediction of $7 million, which would still be a great result for a limited release this time of year, especially one not competing for Oscars.
That leaves us with Replicas, a movie that many think will open below the Mendoza Line. As I write this, there are still not enough reviews on Rotten Tomatoes for a Tomatometer Score. However, the ones there tend to be aggressively negative. The film has no direct competition, but that’s the only thing going for it at the moment. I’m going with an opening weekend of $5 million and a quick exit from theaters.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Aquaman, Bumblebee, Replicas, The Upside, A Dog’s Way Home, On the Basis of Sex, Escape Room