This graph shows Dwayne Johnson’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Black Adam should hit $67 million over its opening weekend, and Ticket to Paradise will post around $16.3 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Both films are over-performing compared to our model’s prediction going into the weekend. Even though neither is breaking records, their relative strength is some much-needed good news for the industry, particularly considering the weakness of some other top 10 films.
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We are slowly pulling out of the doldrums at the box office, but (to mix metaphors) there’s still a long climb ahead. Black Adam is poised to post the biggest opening weekend since Thor: Love and Thunder debuted with $144 million over the weekend of July 8, but it won’t come anywhere near that figure. In fact, based on what we’re seeing so far, it won’t manage half of Thor’s opening number, with $60 million looking like the benchmark for the movie based on the current market conditions and its $7.6 million in previews on Thursday. Ticket to Paradise will likewise have the biggest opening for a romantic comedy in a long while, without entirely setting the world on fire.
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As has been the case with many films during the pandemic era, this week’s widest release was originally scheduled to hit theaters last year. Debuting in 4,402 locations, Black Adam positions itself comfortably between Minions: The Rise of Gru (4,391 theaters), and The Dark Knight Rises (4,406 theaters) as the 21st-widest release in history and the fifth widest film to debut this year. Meanwhile, finally making its arrival to North American cinemas, is the George Clooney and Julia Roberts romantic comedy, Ticket to Paradise. The Ol Parker-directed film will show in a respectable 3,543 locations.
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Nearly 5,000 years after he was bestowed with the almighty powers of the Egyptian gods—and imprisoned just as quickly—Black Adam is freed from his earthly tomb, ready to unleash his unique form of justice on the modern world.
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An animated feature is back as the widest release as this week sees the arrival of DC League of Super Pets. Debuting in 4,314 locations, the latest from Warner Bros. features an all-star voice cast, headlined by the renowned comedic duo of Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart. The film follows Krypto (voiced by Johnson), who after his owner, Superman, is kidnapped must convince a rag-tag shelter pack—Ace the hound, PB the potbellied pig, Merton the turtle and Chip the squirrel—to master their own newfound powers and help him rescue the superheroes. DC League of Super-Pets will also be available to stream on HBO Max 45 days after its theatrical release.
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Krypto the Super-Dog and Superman are inseparable best friends, sharing the same superpowers and fighting crime in Metropolis side by side. When Superman and the rest of the Justice League are kidnapped, Krypto must convince a rag-tag shelter pack—Ace the hound, PB the potbellied pig, Merton the turtle and Chip the squirrel—to master their own newfound powers and help him rescue the superheroes.
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Walt Disney’s release of Jungle Cruise breaks a pandemic-era record for widest release, arriving in 4,310 theaters this weekend. The number matches that of another Disney feature, Onward, which debuted just before theaters began shutting down back in March, 2020. The new film, which is based on the popular theme park attraction, follows Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt as Amazon riverboat captain Frank Wolff and Dr. Lily Houghton as they encounter innumerable dangers while they travel through the Amazon rain forest. Jungle Cruise will be available to stream simultaneously on the Disney+ platform.
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Black Widow once again leads our theater count list this week despite taking a backseat at the box office to Space Jam: A New Legacy last weekend. The former enters its third week with a domestic total of over $140M and a worldwide total of $272M. The latest Marvel film drops from 4,275 to 4,250 locations beginning Friday. While we don’t have an official theater count for Space Jam: A New Legacy, we are estimating the sophomore feature to be in 4,000 theaters. The live action/animated hybrid sequel starring LeBron James and Bugs Bunny scored a better-than-expected $31M during its opening weekend, positioning itself as the number one movie of the week.
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The optional columns are the Release Date, Distributor, Genre, Source, Creative Type, Production Method, Rating, Production Budget, Opening Weekend, Opening Theaters, Maximum Theaters, Theatrical Engagements, Domestic Box Office, Inflation Adjusted Domestic Box Office, International Box Office, Worldwide Box Office, and link to the trailer for all the films in the list. Registered users also can enjoy the site with fewer ads!
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Frozen II wasn’t the only box office hit to debut in November, but it was by far the largest. It helped save November and kept 2019 from turning completely sour at the last minute. As for December, we have several potential $100 million hits, plus a couple of monster hits. There are some who think Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be the biggest domestic hit released in 2019, but most think it will have to settle for second place. Jumanji: The Next Level should also be a monster hit, even if it doesn’t come really close to its predecessor. As for last December, Aquaman was the undisputed champion, earning almost as much as the next twofilms combined. Jumanji could top Aquaman at the box office, while we could also have more $100 million films than we had last year. Add in Star Wars and the year should end on a really positive note, making up for the extended slumps we had to deal with through a lot of the year. 2019 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but it will do enough that we will be able to celebrate.
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Fast and the Furious is one of the largest franchises around with the nine installments so far earning nearly $6 billion worldwide. However, it appears to be off its peak as far as ticket sales are concerned with Hobbs & Shaw having the lowest box office haul since Fast Five exploded the franchise into the top-tier. Is the franchise off its peak in terms of quality as well? If so, is Hobbs & Shaw still worth checking out? Or is it time for fans to move on?
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It’s the first weekend of August and we have the last potential monster hit of the summer debuting. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is the first spin-off in the Fast and the Furious franchise. A lot of people think it will perform weaker at the box office than the other recent films in the franchise, but I think they are underestimating the box office appeal of Dwayne Johnson. Holdovers will be led by The Lion King and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, both of which should still be major factors at the box office. This weekend last year, Mission: Impossible—Fallout and Christopher Robin combined for just under $60 million. Even throwing in The Spy Who Dumped Me and the top three barely pass $70 million. Hobbs and Shaw should earn more than that by itself, giving 2018 a very strong win in the year-over-year competition.
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Skyscraper didn’t live up to expectations at the box office. It didn’t really bomb and might still break even eventually, but it wasn’t a $100 million hit like a lot of people thought it would become. Were audiences smart to stay away? Is it worth checking out? Are there enough extras to lift it to the purchase level?
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It’s a shallow week in terms of the total number of releases, but a lot of films on this list are worth picking up. Rampage is the biggest and it is worth buying, if you are into popcorn action flicks. There are a lot of other releases that are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week contenders, like Disobedience, The Good Place: Season Two, etc. As for true Pick of the Week contenders, we have a limited selection and I’m going with Isle of Dogs on Blu-ray Combo Pack for that title.
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The weekend wasn’t nearly as close as expected. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ran away at the box office, while fellow new release, Skyscraper, only managed third place. This did allow Ant-Man and the Wasp to earn second place during its second weekend of release. Overall, the box office fell 12% compared to last weekend, but it was 1.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is not a high enough margin of victory to compensate for ticket price inflation, but 2018 has such a large lead that even a small victory like this is more than enough to feel good about the overall box office. Speaking of large leads, 2018’s lead over 2017 remains impressive at $550 million or 8.9% at $6.72 billion to $6.17 billion.
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It was not a close race at the box office this weekend, as Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation topped expectations and Skyscraper did not. Transylvania 3 will open with a projected $44.1 million over the weekend for a total opening of $45.4 million, including June 30th’s special showings. This is average for the franchise, as is its reviews and A minus CinemaScore. The film will have no trouble earning enough to cover its $65 million production budget domestically. Meanwhile, the film opened with $46.4 million on 12,600 screens in 442 markets internationally, representing just under half of the total international marketplace. Its biggest market was Mexico, where it earned $8.6 million, while it was also impressive in Russia with $5.8 million. Its only holdover is Australia, where it added $2.4 million to its running tally, which sits at $10.2 million after three weeks of release.
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There should be a close race at the top of the box office this weekend, as both Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Skyscraper have a real shot at $40 million over the weekend. In fact, there’s a good chance both films will earn first place at least one day over the weekend. Meanwhile, Ant-Man and the Wasp will be pushed into third place, but will still be a solid box office performer. It’s this depth that is key, because the top two films from this weekend last year, War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming, both earned more than either of the two new releases this year are expected to earn. 2018 is weak at the top, but the depth gives the weekend a great shot at coming out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is arguably the biggest surprise hit of 2017 earning over $400 million domestically and nearly $1 billion worldwide. Most people were expecting the film to be a box office hit, but almost no one thought this would happen. Did it deserve this success? Or was it a success, because it was the last big hit of 2017 and 2018 got off to such a slow start?
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Well, March has ended and it was a very disappointing month. Black Panther made more than any of the new releases did. The only potential big hit that didn’t miss expectations was Ready Player One. Because of this, 2018 lost its lead over 2017 and is now over $100 million behind last year’s pace. April is usually a terrible month, because it is a dumping ground, especially late in the month. No studio wants to compete with the first monster hit of the Summer. This year, the first monster hit of the summer, Avengers: Infinity War, opens in April. It will make more during its opening weekend than any other April release will make in total. It might make more opening day than any other April release will make in total. The only film that has a real chance to earn more than $100 million is Rampage, a video game adaptation. Last April, The Fate of the Furious earned more than $1.2 billion worldwide, but “only” earned $225.76 million of that domestically. Infinity War should earn more than that opening weekend. The second biggest hit of last April was Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style, both of which earned $45.02 million. If 2018 doesn’t retake the lead by the end of the month, then 2018 is in trouble at the box office.
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In our continued quest to provide the most in-depth analysis of the movie industry, we’re pleased to announce some updates to our people pages today. We have new analysis of career histories, breakdowns for acting and technical credits, and summaries of the acting or technical records people can lay claim to. Let’s look at these new features one at a time, using the cast and crew of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle as example.
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The box office was mostly as expected during November. Granted, Thor: Ragnarok over-performed and Justice League underperformed, but overall there were no real surprises. This means the month started slow, but we got a couple of wins in the end and that bodes well going into the final month of the year. That said, December is a weird month. There are five weekends, but only seven films that I’m sure are opening truly wide. Additionally, five of those seven films are opening Christmas weekend. I’ve never seen a month this lop-sided. There are no real wide releases the first two weeks of the month, so we will likely start slow again, but when The Last Jedi debuts, we should see explosive growth at the box office. It will open with more than any film last December made and that should help 2017 cut into 2016’s lead. 2017 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but the month could do well enough to cut 2016’s lead to under $250 million. That’s my goal. If that happens, I will be happy.
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War for the Planet of the Apes is going to be the biggest of the three wide releases coming out this week. This much is a near certainty. However, there is some doubt if it will open in first place, or if Spider-Man: Homecoming will remain the top draw over the weekend. The only other wide release of the week is Wish Upon, a low-budget horror film, if it can just reach the top five, then the studio will be very happy. Finally, The Big Sick is expanding wide. Given its limited release run so far, it should become a sleeper hit over the summer. This weekend last year, The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters had a one-two punch of nearly $100 million. I think War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming will top that figure, while the overall depth should help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition, but it will likely be close.
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It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the best long weekends at the box office all year. However, this year the two new releases are far from the best. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales has the worst reviews in the franchise and its domestic box office will likely be the same. Sadly, Baywatch’s reviews are even worse. That said, they should still finish one-two over the weekend, while Alien: Covenant and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will be in a race for third place. It likely won’t be close. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass opened one-two during the weekend with results that are similar to what Dead Men Tell No Tales / Baywatch are expected to make. I don’t know if 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
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Moana was the third animated film distributed by Disney this year. All three earned excellent reviews, but Moana was by far the weakest at the box office. Is it also the weakest in terms of quality?
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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In our prediction column, I said I wanted the top two films to earn a combined total of $150 million to $170 million. Finding Dory's and Central Intelligence's combined opening weekend was $170.60 million. The overall box office was 53% higher than last weekend at $233 million. However, this was still 6.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Finding Dory did do better than either Jurassic World or Inside Out individually, but couldn't compete with their combined totals. 2016 is still ahead of 2015, but its lead was cut by a third at $150 million or 3.1%. That said, 2016 hit $5 billion a week faster than 2015 did and its lead of $5.06 billion to $4.91 billion is still substantial.
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Finding Dory is rewriting the record books this weekend, posting the biggest weekend ever for an animated film. Disney is projecting a total of $136.18 million in its first three days, which will easily break the record of $121.6 million set by Shrek the Third back in 2007. The previous top mark for a Pixar movie was Toy Story 3’s $110.3 million. With an A CinemaScore (for the 17th time straight for Pixar, per Disney), and 95% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, the film should enjoy Pixar’s traditional good legs. In the Summer, that has meant a ratio between opening and final box office of somewhere between 3 and 4, which points towards a final box office somewhere between $400 million and $520 million for the fish pic. By way of comparison Finding Nemo earned $518 million, adjusted for inflation.
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This weekend should be the best weekend in June, led by Finding Dory. Finding Dory should easily be the biggest hit of the month, one of the biggest hits of the year, and the fastest opening film in Pixar's history. On the other hand, Central Intelligence is just hoping for a solid second place opening in its role as counter-programming. If it hits $30 million, then the studio will be very happy. This weekend last year, Jurassic World led the way with $106.59 million, while Inside Out opened in second place with $90.44 million. 2016 is going to lose more ground to 2015. I just hope they keep it close. I will be happy if Finding Dory and Central Intelligence earned a combined $150 million to $170 million.
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It is a much slower week than it was last time. In fact, the only two reviews this week were for releases that came out last week. That doesn't mean we don't have any good releases and there are a few contenders for Pick of the Week. Of these, Hello, My Name is Doris is the one I'm most interested in buying and the Blu-ray, while not loaded with extras, is the Pick of the Week. I'm also giving an honorary Puck of the Week to Dark Matter: Season 1, which is a Canadian Sci-fi series.
(On a side note, Amazon's list of new releases is a mess with a bunch of Game of Thrones and Star Trek titles, most of which don't even have images. This made sorting through the new releases a lot harder.)
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May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand.
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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Furious 7 is the latest in the Fast and the Furious franchise. The films started out okay, but critical reception fell quickly. It wasn't until Fast Five when the filmmakers realized they were making, in essence, live-action cartoons that they truly found their voices. This focus helped the box office, so much so that Furious 7 became just the third film to earn more than $1 billion internationally and just the fourth film to earn $1.5 billion worldwide. Is the quality up to the same level as its box office? The odds of that are nearly zero. However, is it at least as entertaining as its box office numbers would indicate?
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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There are three wide releases this week, including one that is already in theaters. The biggest of these three releases is Spy, which is the latest film from Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. Both of their previous films crossed $100 million with ease. Insidious Chapter 3 is the third film in the Insidious franchise, but most think it won't be the best. Entourage started out ahead of expectations, but its reviews could cause a quick decline. This weekend last year, The Fault in Our Stars opened with nearly $50 million, while Maleficent landed in second place with more than $30 million. I don't think 2015 will be strong on top, but I think it will have better depth.
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The post-holiday weekend was softer than the holiday weekend, which is to be expected. However, thanks to a stronger than predicted opening by San Andreas, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. On the other hand, Aloha was on the low end of expectations. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend to $139 million, which is acceptable. By comparison, the overall box office fell 17% from this weekend last year, as San Andreas couldn't keep up with Maleficent's opening. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $4.20 billion, putting it 1.2% ahead of 2014's pace of $4.15 million. 2015 is coming dangerously close to losing its lead over last year.
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In a Summer already littered with franchise films, it’s good to see something original top the charts, even if it is something as rote as a disaster movie based on an earthquake in California. The $53.2 million projected opening for San Andreas is something of a triumph for Dwayne Johnson, who carries the film as its sole lead, unlike his contributions to the Furious 7 ensemble. With only the domestic opening numbers in, Johnson has already moved up to third on our top current stars list, and will most likely pass Vin Diesel for second place before San Andreas’ run is over.
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The weekend after a holiday is usually a bad weekend at the box office. This time around, San Andreas is the clear front-runner while Aloha might struggle, even as counter-programming. San Andreas will earn more than $30 million over the weekend, no other film is on track to hitting $20 million. On the other hand, there could be six other films that earn $10 million or more over the weekend. By comparison, this weekend last year, Maleficent opened with nearly $70 million, while X-Men: Days of Future Past earned more than $30 million. There's no way the top of the chart will match that. Even with better depth, it is very unlikely 2015 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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April is over and there was good news and bad news. Good news: Furious 7 crushed the competition, and broke records along the way. Bad news: Furious 7 crushed the competition and no other April release will earn as much in total as Furious 7 earned during its opening day. Fortunately, Furious 7 was so strong that it carried April of 2015 to a draw when compared to April of 2014. May has a lot of similarities to April. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is expected to break records during its opening weekend and even the low end has it earning more than $1 billion worldwide. Unfortunately, no other film is going to come close to that figure. There are five other films with a potential to reach $100 million at the box office. The keyword there is "potential". There's a chance less than half of those five films will get to that milestone. And like last April, last May had much better depth with five films that reached $100 million, including four that surpassed $200 million. Age of Ultron will earn more than the combined totals of Maleficent, last month's winner, and X-Men: Days of Future Past, which placed second for the month. I am a little concerned about the lack of depth this month and this could cause May to lose in the month-over-month comparison in the end.
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Christmas shopping season is definitely here. This week there is a flood of Christmas releases, as well as full-series TV on DVD Megasets. On the other hand, there isn't a flood of contenders for Pick of the Week. The biggest release of the week is Maleficent and I really liked the movie more than the average critic, but I don't think the DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack is Pick of the Week material. A Most Wanted Man is a better movie, but the DVD or Blu-ray release is weak. The same is true of Land Ho! on Blu-ray Combo Pack and The One I Love on DVD or Blu-ray. I haven't seen White Collar: Season 5 yet, but given the previous seasons, the DVD is Pick of the Week contender. I'm going with that selection and hopefully when the DVD arrives I won't regret that decision.
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There are a trio of wide releases coming out this week, sort of. The first of these, if we go alphabetically is And So It Goes, but it is only opening in 1,762 theaters, which is not quite enough to be wide and likely not enough to reach the top five. Hercules and Lucy are both opening truly wide and both are earning reviews that are currently in the overall positive level. (Although it is close enough that it might change.) Lucy will very likely come out on top, while Hercules should earn second place. There's one more film of note, The Fluffy Movie, which is opening in 400 theaters and has a slim chance at making the top ten. This weekend last year saw the release of The Wolverine, which opened with $53.11 million. There's a chance the top two films won't make that much this year. In other words, 2014 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again.
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Overall, June was not good. Most films matched expectations, or came close enough that there weren't major disappointments. However, it looks like How to Train Your Dragon 2 will miss expectations by more than $100 million. This was such a massive amount that 2014 lost its lead over 2013 and not even Transformers: Age of Extinction's $100 million opening was able to turn things around. Looking forward to July, there's not a lot of good news. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes might be the only film coming out during July that will reach the $100 million milestone, but on the high end, it might reach the $200 million mark. There are a few others that have a shot, but are not favored to reach the century mark. On the other hand, there are more films that may or may not open / expand wide and even if they do, they will likely have no real impact at the box office. By comparison, last July, Despicable Me 2 was the top draw and finished with more than $350 million. There were also four other films that surpassed $100 million at the box office. It seems practically impossible for 2014 to match those numbers and will likely finish the month behind last year's pace. Overall, 2014 isn't doing poorly, but the summer has been much weaker than the spring was, so we've gone from potential record breaking year to merely average.
PANIC! If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, it is officially time to panic. Personally, I got the last of my shopping done on Wednesday, although I don't think the gift will arrive in time for Christmas. For those still looking for a last minute gift, Part IV of our Holiday Gift Guide focuses on books, CDs, and of course anything else I missed the first time around, beginning with...
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As a franchise, Fast and the Furious appeared burnt out in 2009. Tokyo Drift bombed failing to match its production budget domestically and likely losing a ton worldwide. Fast and Furious saw the return of the original cast, which helped it return to previous heights in terms of box office dollars, but critics eviscerated it. Then, defying logic, Fast Five became the biggest hit in the franchise and earned the most criticalpraise. Can Fast and Furious 6 maintain this momentum? Or was Fast Five just a fluke?
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Another typical summer week on the home market. There are a few first-run releases, but nothing that is a blockbuster. There are more TV on DVD releases, including a couple that were contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes Burn Notice: Season Six, but the screener is late, so I'm holding off. Enter the Dragon gets an Anniversary Edition Blu-ray and it is a contender. However, in the end I went with The Newsroom: The Complete First Season on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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Snitch opened in late February, which is not a great time of year to release a major hit. It is not a complete dumping ground like January or September, but most films released during this month will be lucky just to become a midlevel hit. Snitch topped admittedly low expectations becoming a middling hit. A final box office of $43 million isn't bad for that time of year. Does this also describe its quality. Is it not bad, for a February release? Or is it better than its box office numbers would indicate?
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As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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There are just two wide releases coming out this week, Snitch and Dark Skies. Most analysts think Snitch is the stronger of the two films, but most also think Identity Thief will return to top spot. Looking at all of the evidence, it certainly seems that way. Unless one of the new releases is a truly big surprise, it looks like we won't keep pace with last year again this weekend. 2013 needed to get off to a really fast start, because there's no film that's going to match The Hunger Games, and once we are dealing with that film in the year-over-year comparison, 2013 might be sunk for good.
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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