Deadpool & Wolverine remains comfortably at the top of the box office chart this weekend, with a very good hold projected by Disney this morning. The studio reckons the film will come in with $97 million, down just 54% from its massive opening. Trap and Harold and the Purple Crayon are meanwhile posting soft results in the face of some stiff competition.
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It was a massive opening weekend at the worldwide box office for newcomer Deadpool & Wolverine. The dynamic duo turned up a jaw-dropping $211 million in domestic receipts while collecting just over $233 million from overseas viewings. After six days, the sequel is creeping up on $600 million, currently enjoying $590 million in global sales. Although three new wide releases hit movie screens this weekend, Deadpool & Wolverine are poised to stay in the driver’s seat atop of the box office chart.
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Last weekend was another sluggish one at the domestic box office, with two films in their sophomore weekend vying for bragging rights. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and The Garfield Movie went head to head, with the latter taking the top prize. Fortunately, we should see a substantial uptick this weekend with the debut of Bad Boys: Ride or Die, as well as the horror feature, The Watchers.
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After a mighty seven weekends at the top of the chart, Avatar: The Way of Water has lost its crown as box office champ to Knock at the Cabin. With a projected $14.2 million, M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller isn’t doing stellar numbers by the director’s high standards, but it is doing enough to hold off 80 for Brady, which is headed for $12.5 million in second place. Avatar will be third with around $10.8 million.
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The first weekend in February brings three new wide releases to movie theaters across North America. Starting its theatrical run in 3,912 cinemas, the sports comedy 80 for Brady stars Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, and Rita Moreno as three lifelong friends who travel to Houston to watch their idol Tom Brady play in Super Bowl LI. The second-widest release this week is newcomer, Knock at the Cabin. Playing in 3,643 locations, the M. Night Shyamalan psychological horror film follows a family who, when taken hostage, are forced to make a choice to avoid the apocalypse.
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Nope is an all-too-rare example of a big-budget, completely original, ultra-wide release, and it looks as though Universal will be rewarded with a strong opening weekend for Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror movie. With strong numbers from Thursday previews, it looks like the film could hit $50 million on debut.
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Get ready for Big Thunder Mountain Railroad: The Movie everyone. Disney’s strategy of converting its theme park rides into adventure movies is hitting pay dirt again this weekend with Jungle Cruise on its way to a $34.2-million debut, according to the studio’s Sunday morning projection. That’s substantially above our model’s prediction, and it’s not the only movie to be earning more than expected: The Green Knight will earn about $6.8 million this weekend to land in second place. Those two films more than make up for the softness of the returning titles, and we are looking at a welcome “up” weekend for the market as a whole.
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M. Night Shyamalan returns to the top of the box office charts this weekend, but he might be the only person celebrating as every opening and returning film in the top 10 looks set to underperform this weekend. Shyamalan’s new film, Old is coming closest to our model’s prediction with an opening of $16.5 million, which is 12% below what the model expected. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins will come second with $13.35 million, which is 15% behind expectations. Those results are both well within the model’s margin of error, but the collective performance of the market is troubling.
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Our model has four films within five million dollars of one another this weekend as Space Jam: A New Legacy and Black Widow return to theaters, and Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins and Old appear for the first time. Black Widow and Old are in a statistical dead heat at the top, but any of the four films has a shot at winning the weekend.
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Black Widow once again leads our theater count list this week despite taking a backseat at the box office to Space Jam: A New Legacy last weekend. The former enters its third week with a domestic total of over $140M and a worldwide total of $272M. The latest Marvel film drops from 4,275 to 4,250 locations beginning Friday. While we don’t have an official theater count for Space Jam: A New Legacy, we are estimating the sophomore feature to be in 4,000 theaters. The live action/animated hybrid sequel starring LeBron James and Bugs Bunny scored a better-than-expected $31M during its opening weekend, positioning itself as the number one movie of the week.
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A family on a tropical holiday discover that the secluded beach where they are relaxing for a few hours is somehow causing them to age rapidly … reducing their entire lives into a single day.
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After snagging over $100 million in domestic theatrical earnings in its first six days, Black Widow returns this week with an additional 115 theaters (totaling 4,275), securing its place once again as the widest release of the week. One of three new wide releases this week is the live action/animated hybrid comedy, Space Jam: A New Legacy, starring current NBA legend LeBron James. The film debuts this week in 3,950 locations. The original Space Jam, which starred another NBA icon in Michael Jordan, scored $250 million worldwide when it was released back in November of 1996.
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Glass opened in first place on the international chart with $48.5 million in 55 markets. Its biggest market was Russia, where it opened with $5.19 million on 1,381 screens. On the other hand, arguably its best market was Mexico, where it earned $4.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $4.39 million. This is more than double the $2.02 million Split opened with and the record for M. Night Shyamalan in that market. On the down side, the film has practically done its international run and only has China ahead.
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Glass became M. Night Shyamalan’s fastest starting film with $3.7 million during its previews, topping his previous record of $3 million set by The Last Airbender. More importantly, this is more than the $2 million Split opened with a couple of years ago. This film won’t have as long legs for two reasons. When Split came out, people thought it was an original story and didn’t know it was a stealth sequel to Unbreakable, while Glass is an open sequel and sequels tend to have shorter legs. Also, its reviews are bad with a Tomatometer Score of just 35%. As for its weekend haul, the film needed $4 million during previews in order to have a 50/50 chance at $60 million. $3.7 million means $55 million is more likely. That’s not quite as much as we predicted, but still a good start.
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December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases.
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Split dominated the weekend box office earning $40.01 million, which is nearly double predictions and nearly double its nearest competition, xXx: Return of Xander Cage. The overall box office still shrunk from last weekend, but it was down just 3.2%, which is excellent for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 was 27% stronger. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016, but that gap has closed to 9.4% at $736 million to $812 million.
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2017 has its first surprise hit. Split is set for a weekend just north of $40 million, according to Sunday morning’s projection from Universal. That’s not just the biggest weekend of the year so far, but it almost doubles the $22.8 million earned by Hidden Figures a couple of weeks ago, and moves the studio ahead of Fox as the leading distributor for the year so far. It also marks, of course, a return to form for M. Night Shyamalan. It basically ties the debut of The Last Airbender back in 2010, and his last movie to do significantly better on opening weekend was The Village, which started out with $50.7 million in the Summer of 2004.
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Split easily won on Friday, doubling its nearest competition, and earning $14.6 million. This is the best opening day for M. Night Shyamalan since The Last Airbender opened in 2010. Its reviews are 76% positive, and it earned a B+ from CinemaScore, which is good for a horror film. This puts it on pace for an opening weekend of $34 million, which is more than it cost to make and advertise. If the film can match this during the rest of its run, then it will break even on its domestic numbers alone.
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It is a deceptively busy week with five films opening or expanding wide. At least that’s what the dsitributors are saying. In reality, there are only two truly wide releases, xXx: Return of Xander Cage and Split. There is also one semi-wide release, The Resurrection of Gavin Stone, as well as two semi-wide expansions, The Founder and 20th Century Women. Return of Xander Cage and Split are the only two of the films that have a shot at the top ten and they could be in a close race for first place. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases, but none of them made significantly more than $10 million at the box office. The biggest film of the weekend, The Revenant, earned just $16.01 million. 2017 could finally win in the year-over-year comparison.
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December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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We are getting back to normal for the home market releases. There are no major first run releases, but one of the biggest limited releases of 2015 hits the home market. Sicario earned nearly $50 million after starting in limited release and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. It wasn't the only contender for that honor, as Deathgasm (DVD or Blu-ray) and Infinitely Polar Bear (DVD or Blu-ray) were also in contention.
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Both of the two true wide releases had amazing openings this past week. Or to be more specific, amazing openings for a September release. The Perfect Guy did earn first place, but by less than half a million dollars over The Visit. Both films opened substantially above expectations. Thanks to this, the overall box office rose significantly, both compared to last week and compared to last year. The total box office was $102 million, which is 13% higher than last week. It is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year. September is already looking really good. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.65 million putting it 5.3% ahead of last year's pace of $7.26 million. 2015 is nearly $400 million head of 2014's pace and there's not a lot of time for 2015 to blow that lead. It wouldn't be impossible, but it is getting more and more unlikely.
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The movie business will make its best ever start to the Fall Season in dollar terms this weekend, thanks to a couple of openers that are handily out-performing expectations. The second weekend in September is traditionally the weakest of the year for the industry, with the combined box office for all movies in release only reaching $100 million on two previous occasions (2008 and 2013). This year will be the third time it’s happened, and final numbers will take 2015 comfortably past 2013’s record of $103.2 million (see complete rankings here). In terms of ticket sales, we’ll still fall short of 1999’s high mark of 15.1 million, but we should see a weekend in the top 5 by that measure too.
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What is traditionally the weakest weekend of the year isn’t looking too bad this morning, with The Perfect Guy and The Visit both posting solid opening day numbers on Friday. The Perfect Guy came out marginally ahead on the day, picking up an estimated $9.95 million compared to $9.22 million or so for The Visit. Both films will land over $20 million for the weekend, which is a victory at this time of year, but The Perfect Guy is expected to stretch its lead over the next couple of days.
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There are two and a half wide releases coming out this week, led by The Perfect Guy. I think it will earn first place at the box office, but it isn't a sure thing. Up next is The Visit, which is the latest from M. Night Shyamalan. It has been a while since he had real drawing power at the box office. Finally there's 90 Minutes in Heaven, which is not expected to open truly wide, but wide enough to get into the top ten. This weekend last year was led by No Good Deed, which opened with $24.25 million. I don't think any new release will match that this year. There's a chance none of them will match Dolphin Tale 2. I'm cautiously optimistic that 2015 won't lose by a substantial amount, but if either of the two truly wide releases bomb, then the box office will be in real trouble.
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As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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