Justin Chon stars as Jeff Chang. It's his 21st birthday and his two friends come by to take him to the bar to have a night of debauchery. However, he has a very important interview the next day to get into medical school, so he agrees to only one beer. The night doesn't stop at one beer.

It's Project X meets The Hangover. The trailer wasn't as bad at the former's, so hopefully the reviews are closer to the latter. Unfortunately, there are no reviews at the moment, so it is impossible to judge the quality, but there's enough buzz to suggest it will be a midlevel hit. At the very least, it should cover its production budget during its theatrical run, while its home market numbers will push it to profitability.

Last minute update: The reviews are in and they are bad, really bad, and I've dropped the box office potential from $40 million to $35 million.

A grittier take on Jack and the Beanstalk fairytale. ... It cost $150 million to make. I guess the filmmakers were hoping for a box office run similar to Snow White and the Huntsman, and it will need to make close to $400 million worldwide to break even. However, the buzz is not good. The early reviews are good, but have been falling, and the advertizing push isn't there. Most people expect this film to bomb, at least compared to its production budget. Its buzz is closer to Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters then it is to Snow White and the Huntsman. Unless analysts are wrong about this film, or it performs much better internationally, the studio could lose a fortune on this one.

Last minute update: The reviews have continued to fall and are now just under 50% positive, which is more in line with my original expectations. However, I remain a little under the average prediction.

The first The Last Exorcism cost less than $2 million to make, but pulled in more than $40 million domestically. The second installment, The Last Exorcism Part II, should make relatively close to the same amount. The first film's reviews were good enough that I think fans will want to come back, but this one isn't being screened for critics, so it will likely have terrible reviews and really short legs. Then again, it will likely make more on its opening day than it cost to make and break even early in its home market run, if not sooner.

Usually, by the time a movie is about to come out, I have already quite a bit of information on the film and there's not a lot of new research I need to do. However, very rarely, a film slips beneath my radar until I start the monthly preview, and I have to do more research. In the case of Phantom, I had too look up the distributor. I had never heard of RCR Media Group before last week. They've produced a few movies in the past few years, mostly direct-to-DVD sequels and a few limited releases like Jack and Diane. This film will be their first that opens wide, but I'm not at all convinced this is a good idea. The early reviews are bad, there's no buzz, no ad presence, etc. There are limited releases opening in March that have more buzz and higher box office potential than this film does. If it does open in 2,000 theaters, just avoiding the Mendoza Line will be a bit of a victory. It will be a Pyrrhic victory, but that will likely be as good as it gets.

From the director of the original The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. This makes it interesting to look at. On the other hand, he doesn't have a track record at the box office, so Dead Man Down has a lower box office potential as a result. For that matter, Colin Farrell, Noomi Rapace, and Terrence Howard, also have weak track records at the box office. For that matter, so does the distributor, FilmDistrict. Finally, it is counter-programing to what could be the biggest hit of the month. That's a lot of strikes against it. It wasn't an expensive movie to make, so it should break even, eventually.

This film was clearly made with the hopes it would be the next Alice in Wonderland. There are very few people who think Oz The Great and Powerful will make $400 million domestically and $1 billion worldwide. In fact, there are some who think it will make less in total that Alice in Wonderland made during its opening weekend. The director, Sam Raimi, does have some huge hits under his belt, and there are some big names in the cast, but the buzz just isn't there. Granted, it is growing, and at the right time, but I don't think this film will match its production budget domestically, meaning it will have to be a bigger hit internationally to break even early in its home market run. If it does miss expectations domestically and struggles just as much internationally, then it could cost the studio a lot of money. Granted, I'm a little less optimistic than most, but the overall box office is weak and there have already been some high profile films to fail to reach expectations this year.

A 9-11 operator, Halle Berry, gets a call from a woman who has an invader in her house, but a mistake by the operator gets the woman killed. Flash forward and the same operator gets a call from a teenage girl, Abigail Breslin, who has been kidnapped. The operator tries to talk her through the ordeal, but soon the kidnapper finds the phone and taunts the operator. She realizes it is the same guy and is determined to save this girl where she failed the earlier one.

That's a good setup. Also, the film is directed by Brad Anderson, who previously made The Machinist and Transsiberian, both of which are amazing movies. I am cautiously optimistic that the film will be worth watching, although there are no early reviews yet. (Nor are there normally reviews this early.) On the other hand, this will be his first wide release. Also, Halle Berry hasn't had a major box office hit since X-Men: The Last Stand, while Abigail Breslin is too young to have any real box office drawing power. It did only cost $13 million to make, so it won't need to be a big hit to break even, but I am not overly optimistic.

Steve Carell and Steve Buscemi star as two stage magicians that have fallen out of favor with the public, because a new street magician, played by Jim Carrey is all of the rage. Steve Carell meets his inspiration, Alan Arkin, who is now retired, looking for to regain the magic.

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone has a great cast, but its director is mostly known for TV work, so doesn't have a box office track record to look at. I did like the trailer and there is some good buzz. Perhaps it will be a breakout hit; it certainly has the best shot out of the three wide releases this week, but I think becoming a midlevel hit will be as good as it gets for the movie.

Four girls, Selena Gomez, Vanessa Hudgens, Rachel Korine, and Ashley Benson, rob a fast food restaurant to get the money to go on Spring Break. When they get there, they get into legal trouble and are bailed out by James Franco, a drug dealer, who gets them to kill a rival drug dealer.

The film is written and directed by Harmony Korine, who previously made Kids, which was controversial, to say the least. This movie does have quite a bit of buzz, with the Disney Girls Gone Wild angle, but I'm not sure that will be enough to allow it to expand. Even if it does expand, becoming a midlevel hit is probably too much to ask for. There is also a chance it will struggle in limited release and never truly expand. The early reviews are good, but not great, so the lower end is more likely. The above box office potential is a weighted average of those two extremes, but it could double that figure if it expands truly wide.

Tina Fey is a college application officer who reunites with a college classmate, Paul Rudd, who thinks one of his students, Nat Wolff, might be the son she gave up for adoption when she was in college.

The film is directed by Paul Weitz, which does give me some hope it will be a good movie and it does have the potential to become a sleeper hit. Tina Fey and Paul Rudd do have more than a few such hits in their combined careers. The buzz is good, but not very loud, but there's time for that to change. If the buzz does grow and the reviews match my expectations, then it could be a surprise hit earning $75 million or more. I'm not courageous enough to make that prediction.

A film about a dysfunctional family living in the stone age that has to deal with incredible changes in their world. The studio is obviously hoping to have a box office run similar to Ice Age, which opened this time of year just over a decade ago. Unfortunately, it feels a little too close to Continental Drift, and that could hurt its buzz. The film is co-written and co-directed by Chris Sanders and Kirk De Micco. The former made Lilo and Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon, both of which were excellent. The latter made Space Chimps, which was not excellent. Early reviews are mostly good and hopefully the buzz will continue to grow as its release date nears.

I don't know if this movie is opening truly wide. Given the buzz, I really doubt it. This movie is being compared to Movie 43, but its box office potential is actually worse. If it does open in limited release, it will likely crash and burn. If it opens truly wide, it will likely miss the Mendoza Line in its opening weekend before disappearing as soon as the theater owners are contractually able to drop it. In a few years, if the film is remembered at all, it will be remembered as an example that Sketch Comedy just don't work in theaters.

Gerard Butler stars as a secret service agent, who was involved in a car crash while protecting the president, Aaron Eckhart, in which the president's wife died. He hasn't been able to recover, but when terrorists take over the White House and kidnap the president, he's the only one who can rescue him.

This is not a bad setup, but there is simply not enough buzz given its production budget and how close we are to its release date. If it earns good reviews and the buzz grows, perhaps it can be a surprise hit and match its reported production budget, but that is probably asking too much.

The president of the United States declares the G.I. Joe team traitors and tries to eliminate them. The survivors realize he's under the control of Cobra and strike back.

This is actually a good setup for a sequel to G.I. Joe, but just a month before the film's original release date, it was pushed back nearly a full year. It went from a prime summer release to a much weaker March release. This is a really bad sign. That said, it is still one of the most talked about March releases, while the original did make more than $300 million worldwide, so it should be a hit, just not a monster hit.

Based on a book by Stephenie Meyer. On the one hand, Stephenie Meyer is a terrible author. On the other hand, Saoirse Ronan and Diane Kruger are really good actresses, so I'm hoping this film will be better than the Twilight films were. I don't think it will be nearly as good at the box office, as the buzz just isn't there, at least not to that level. There is enough buzz to think it will become one of Open Road's biggest hits.

Jurnee Smollett plays a married marriage counselor who falls for a very rich man. It's a Tyler Perry movie, so there's little that needs to be said about its box office potential. His films tends to bring in roughly the same time and time again. The non-Madeaones don't make as much money as those that feature his most famous creation, but this film should still make enough to show a healthy profit.