January 3rd, 2021
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Wonder Woman 1984 will remain top at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, but it’ll do so in spite of a sharp fall from its opening weekend. Warner Bros. projects a $5.5-million weekend for the super hero pic, down 67% from last weekend. That’s not a huge fall for a film like this by historical standards, but it is a surprisingly-sharp decline for the New Year weekend, and considerably worse than any other film reporting, many of which increased their box office from Christmas weekend.
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December 13th, 2020
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The Croods: A New Age continues to dominate at the box office (relatively speaking) this weekend, with Universal projecting a weekend box office of $3.01 million for a total of $24.26 million to date. Half Brothers is outperforming expectations in second place with a projected $490,000 sophomore weekend, down just 30% from its last outing.
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January 21st, 2018
The Screen Actors Guild announced their winners on Sunday night and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won every category it was nominated in.
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January 5th, 2018
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The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) It is a strange year for the PGAs, as there was a tie resulting in 11 films being nominated for the top prize.
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December 13th, 2017
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
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November 22nd, 2017
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Justice League easily won the weekend race on the international chart with a total opening of $184.95 million on 47,000 screens in 65 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it opened with $50.58 million over the weekend for a total opening of $51.89 million. Its best market was Brazil, where it earned $14.2 million on 1,580 screens, which is the biggest all-time opening in that market. In most major markets, the film opened above Wonder Woman and Thor: Ragnarok. For example, the film earned $9.6 million in Mexico, compared to $8.22 million for Wonder Woman and $7.34 million for Thor: Ragnarok. It wasn’t as impressive in every market. For example, it only managed $9.67 million during its first place opening in the U.K., which is equivalent to a little more than $50 million here. The film opens in Japan this weekend, but it will need good legs to pay for its $300 million production budget.
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October 23rd, 2017
It was a terrible summer at the box office, but Spider-Man: Homecoming was one of the few bright spots. It was one of three films to cross $300 million domestically and has a slim shot at finishing in the top five for the year. Does it deserve this success? Or did it thrive just because it’s part of the MCU?
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October 10th, 2017
It’s a good week for the home market with top notch releases in nearly every category. Baby Driver is the biggest first run release of the week and one of the best releases. The Lure is a foreign-language film and one of two Criterion Collection releases in competition for Pick of the Week. Maudie is a Canadian limited release that did surprisingly well in theaters. Finally there’s Othello, which first came out more than 60 years ago. The only thing we are missing is a TV on DVD title. As for the winner, I’m giving Pick of the Week to, Othello, while Maudie wins Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release.
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October 8th, 2017
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Wonder Woman is the fourth film in the DCEU and apparently it is one of the last. (Warner Bros. recently came out and said they would be focusing on individual stories and downplaying the overall continuity for a while. Smart move.) Wonder Woman broke a number of records during its box office run, including biggest box office hit for a female director, biggest super hero original movie, etc. and in the end, it was the biggest domestic hit of the summer. Did it deserve this success? Or was it only good compared to the previous installments in the DCEU?
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September 20th, 2017
I think it is a really good week on the home market. The biggest release of the week is Wonder Woman, which is also one of the best wide releases of the year. The extras are strong and the Blu-ray Combo Pack / 3D Combo Pack are Pick of the Week contenders. It isn’t the winner, as The Big Sick is one of the best movies I’ve seen all year and the DVD / Blu-ray Combo Pack is loaded with extras.
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August 29th, 2017
It’s one of those weeks that are deceptively busy. The biggest new release of the week is Wonder Woman, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand. The biggest overall release is the The Lion King franchise on separate Blu-ray releases, but it’s at least a double-dip on Blu-ray. I think a triple-dip on Blu-ray. If it weren’t for these circumstances, they would be clear Pick of the Week contenders. Without those two movies, the next best is... My Cousin Rachel on Blu-ray. Its reviews are not quite Pick of the Week level, but it is the best of what we've got.
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August 20th, 2017
We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them.
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August 15th, 2017
Annabelle: Creation’s opening saved summer for one week, but that’s the practically the only good news we have to talk about this weekend. The film pulled in $35.01 million, which is over three times its nearest competition. That’s the bad news. The depth this past weekend was terrible, as there were only two films with more than $10 million, compared to five films last weekend. The overall box office fell 4.6% to just $117 million. Worse still, this is 32% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is behind 2016 by $360 million or 4.9% at $7.07 billion to $7.43 billion. The year has lost over $500 million compared to last year’s pace during summer alone. This is a disaster.
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August 13th, 2017
After a series of lackluster weekends at the box office, Annabelle: Creation is doing its bit to clear away the end-of-Summertime blues with a $35 million opening this weekend. That’s right in line with the $37 million Annabelle opened with three years ago, which is an impressive performance for a horror franchise. It’s also the best opening for a horror movie since Split’s $40 million start back in January. The first film in the franchise fell away quite rapidly, and ended up with $84 million in total, so a final total of over $100 million is far from assured, but with a production budget of only $15 million, and probably not much more than $20 million in marketing, this should be a highly profitable movie for Warner Bros., especially since the franchise is popular globally.
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August 8th, 2017
The Dark Tower opened on the very low end of expectation with just $19.15 million over the weekend. The rest of the box office was more or less in line with predictions, leading to a $122 million haul, which is a 15% decline from last weekend. A 15% decline is pretty normal this time of year. What isn’t normal is a decline of 47% from last year; a year-over-year decline like that normally only happens when there’s a misalignment in holiday, but it wasn’t a surprise, as Suicide Squad earned more last year than the entire box office earned this year. 2017 was already behind 2016’s pace by a large amount, but that deficit more than doubled from last weekend and is now $270 million or 3.8% at $6.89 billion to $7.17 billion. Remember, 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, so the summer has been a disaster at the box office.
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July 30th, 2017
A solid second weekend will be enough to keep Dunkirk at the top of the box office chart this weekend, as The Emoji Movie falls short of a par performance for a family-friendly animated film. Christopher Nolan’s war movie will fall 44% from it opening—a decent figure these days—to earn $28.1 million this time around, according to Warner Bros.’ projection released on Sunday morning. That will take it past $100 million domestically today, puts it on course for around $200 million domestically in total.
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July 27th, 2017
The final weekend of July has two wide releases, Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie. Neither are expected to be monster hits, but both could be profitable at the box office. Atomic Blonde’s reviews are excellent and its connections to the John Wick movies could get people into theaters. The Emoji Movie still has no reviews and its buzz is incredibly negative. I haven’t seen buzz this negative since Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This does give Dunkirk a real shot at repeating on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Jason Bourne opened with nearly $60 million, which will likely be more than both new releases this year earn. Even if Dunkirk has better legs than expected, there’s little hope 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 23rd, 2017
Dunkirk will easily top the chart at the box office this weekend, with a $50.5 million opening weekend from 3,720 theaters that’s broadly in line with expectations, and also remarkably similar to the first weekend for Interstellar, which opened with $47.5 million from 3,561 theaters back in 2014. It seems that the film has reached the Christopher Nolan fan base, but not extended much beyond that. Remarkably, Pearl Harbor remains the record holder for biggest opening weekend for a World War II movie, with the $59 million it earned back in 2001 (equivalent to roughly $93 million with today’s ticket prices).
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July 18th, 2017
The weekend box office chart didn’t hold a lot of surprises. War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place with a slightly better than predicted result of $56.26 million, while most of the rest of our predictions were also close enough to be considered victories. Overall, the box office plummeted 21% from last weekend reaching $163 million. This was also a little lower than the same weekend last year. The emphasis is on “little”, as it only dropped by 0.062% or about $100,000. On its own, this would be nothing to worry about. However, 2017’s lead over 2016 has completely evaporated and the year is now 0.19% or $12 million behind last year’s pace at $6.21 billion to $6.22 billion. We’ve lost about $200 million this summer compared to last year and I don’t see that turning around any time soon.
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July 16th, 2017
A weekend estimate just ahead of our prediction for War for the Planet of the Apes, and a one just below our prediction for Spider-Man: Homecoming means there’s a clear winner at the box office. War will come in with $56.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Homecoming will finish second with $45.2 million.
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July 15th, 2017
As expected, War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on Friday. To match predictions, the film needed to make between $18 million and $19 million, but instead it earned $22.1 million during its first day of release. Furthermore, this is better than its previews were, so this suggests good word-of-mouth and longer than average legs. Its reviews are 94% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore, so long legs wouldn’t be a shock. Perhaps it can reach $60 million over the weekend. Anything less than $55 million will be a little disappointing. Splitting the difference gets us a weekend target of $57 million.
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July 13th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming earned first place in one of the closest races I’ve seen. It pulled in $140.03 million on 24,287 screens in 71 markets for a worldwide opening of $257.06 million. Its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $19.37 million on 1,965 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $25.94 million. It also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($12.11 million in 616 theaters) and Mexico ($11.72 million on 3,506 screens), while it came close to that mark in Brazil with $9.09 million on 1,302 screens. The film did amazing business in Asia, including earning $6.84 million on 1,092 screens in Indonesia and $6.46 million on 1,900 screens in India. The film has yet to open in a number of major markets, including France, Germany, China, and Japan and should top $800 million worldwide with ease before it is done, which is enough to break even before it reaches the home market. The real challenge is surpassing Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the worldwide chart for the summer. It is too soon to tell if it will get there for sure, but this is a great start.
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July 11th, 2017
The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend.
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July 9th, 2017
A $117 million opening weekend is pretty much all Sony could ask for from Spider-Man: Homecoming. It’s the second-best debut for the Spider-Man franchise, if you ignore the effects of inflation, and makes it almost certain that the franchise will break its unfortunate streak of earning less at the domestic box office with every new outing. With, reportedly, a more constrained budget—this is the least expensive Spider-Man film, adjusted for inflation—profitability looks assured, and Sony’s partnership with Disney looks as though it’s paying off.
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July 8th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming dominated the box office on Friday and in a pleasant surprise, it beat predictions with $50.5 million during its opening day. Its opening day vs. its previews is almost identical to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which would put the film on pace for $130 million over the weekend. Spider-Man: Homecoming did earn better reviews, while both movies earned a solid A from CinemaScore, and many more kids have no school on Monday compared to when Guardians debuted. All of this should help its legs. On the other hand, Homecoming could have a bigger Fanboy Effect, as Spider-Man is a much more established character. Because of that, I’m going to be a little more cautious and predict a $125 million opening weekend. This is still simply fantastic and the only downside is Sony and Disney have to work together to make this work in the long term. This is Sony’s second best domestic opening of all time. (Spider-Man 3 is the only one that beats it.) It could open with more than last year’s number one domestic hit for the studio, Ghostbusters, earned in total. Sony has a lot of reasons to work with Disney to keep Spider-Man in the MCU.
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July 7th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming needed to make more than Wonder Woman during its previews in order to match it at the box office. Wonder Woman’s audience was disproportionately female, especially more mature women. This demographic tends to help a film’s legs at the expense of its opening weekend. So if Homecoming only made a little more than the $11.0 million Wonder Woman made, it would fail to crack $100 million over the weekend. Fortunately, it crushed that figure with $15.4 million on Thursday night. This is the third-best figure for previews this year, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the better comparison, as the audiences for the two films match up nearly perfectly. If Homecoming does match Guardians’ legs, then it will earn just over $130 million over the weekend. I think the fact that this is the sixth Spider-Man movie and third incarnation of the character in 15 years will hurt its legs a little bit, but $125 million is the new goal to aim for. The only downside here is behind-the-scenes, as the character is being shared by Sony and Disney and I’m not sure how long they can work together.
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July 6th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.
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July 6th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 dominated the international box office almost as much as it dominated the domestic box office earning $98.8 million on 8,525 screens in 52 markets for totals of $121.1 million international and $171.2 worldwide. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $14.50 million in 608 theaters, while Mexico wasn’t far behind with $12.34 million. However, arguably its most impressive opening came in Brazil where it earned $7.5 million, which is the best opening for an animated film in that market. The film has already made enough to pay for its $75 million production budget, so it is a monster hit. However, its decline from Minions means Universal is more likely to make a second and third Minions movie rather than a fourth Despicable Me. As someone who prefers the Despicable Me movies, this is disappointing. On the other hand, I recognize I’m not in the target demographic for these films, so I really shouldn’t have a say in these things.
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July 5th, 2017
The weekend box office chart was as predicted, at least in terms of the order. Most of the new releases / top five had weaker openings / sharper declines. Despicable Me 3 still led the way, but with a more subdued $72.43 million. Baby Driver is hoping to earn that much in total after a $20.55 million / $29.58 million opening. This is almost as much as it cost to make. The House, on the other hand, was DOA with just $8.72 million. On the positive side, Monday and Tuesday were much stronger than usual, so rather than looking at the weekend box office and saying it is weaker than anticipated, we could instead say the weekend box office was stretched out over five days. Overall, the box office grew 20% from last week to $169 million. This is down 11% from the same weekend last year, but again, one could argue this is due to a misalignment in the Independence Day holiday. Year-to-date, 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the lead shrank to under $30 million at $5.64 billion to $5.61 billion.
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July 3rd, 2017
The combination of Canada Day and Independence Day has resulted in some studios not releasing the weekend final numbers today. Some are releasing final numbers, some have updated Sunday’s estimates, while others are just waiting until Wednesday for final results. Despicable Me 3 is in the middle category, as Universal revised its estimate downwards to $72.41 million. This is still a great opening, but it is also a troubling trajectory, as it has fallen a lot from Friday’s Estimates, when it looked like it was going to hit $83 million. Granted, this is still the sixth-biggest opening of the year, so Universal has reason to celebrate, but its internal multiplier suggests short legs for a family film. I think this is a case of franchise fatigue, as its reviews were good, even if they were not as good as the previous Despicable Me films.
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July 1st, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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June 29th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 should dominate the box office this weekend, which is good news, because the last few weeks have been underwhelming. In fact, we haven’t had a monster hit since Wonder Woman started the month off with a bang. The House is an R-rated comedy, but since the last such film to come out bombed, I’m a little worried about its chances. Baby Driver opened on Wednesday and its early numbers are promising. It won’t be a $100 million hit, but it should earn a solid profit for Sony. This weekend last year, there were no monster hits at the box office, but there was solid depth. This weekend, we should be much stronger on top, while the depth won’t be that much weaker, leading to 2017 ending its mini-losing streak.
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June 29th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight dominated the international box office chart earning $196.2 million in 40 markets, picking up first place in each of those markets. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, this is slightly ahead of Age of Extinction’s combined opening in these markets. Bad news, most of it came from China, where studios only get 25% of the box office, instead of an average 40% in other international markets. The Chinese debut was impressive, $127.24 million on 7,800 screens, including previews. It also did well in South Korea with $9.53 million on 1,727 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.87 million. It was nearly as potent in Russia with $8.45 million on 1,456 screens. On the other hand, its openings in the U.K. ($5.90 million in 577 theaters) and in Australia ($3.39 million on 539 screens) were actually worse than its opening here, given the relative size of the markets involved. The film has yet to open in several major markets, including France, where it opens this weekend, so it should remain active on the international chart for a while.
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June 27th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight had the weekend to itself, but it couldn’t take advantage earning $44.68 million / $68.48 million over the full five days. It earned less over five days than last year’s winner, Finding Dory, earned over three days. Wonder Woman remained in second place becoming just the third film released in 2017 to hit $300 million, but there was not much else to celebrate at the box office. This explains why the overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $139 million. More importantly, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but its lead was cut in half to just 1.3% or $70 million. This is a little distressing.
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June 25th, 2017
A tepid $45.3 million Friday-to-Sunday domestic weekend for Transformers: The Last Knight is pretty much unmitigated bad news for Paramount Pictures. The studio is in desperate need of a hit, and the Transformers franchise is by far their biggest property. Even including the film’s grosses from Wednesday and Thursday, its $69 million debut is barely in the top ten for the year so far, and poor reviews and a B+ CinemaScore mean that it won’t have significant legs, even with a bit of help from the upcoming July 4 weekend. So all eyes are going to be on its overseas performance.
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June 24th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels.
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June 22nd, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
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June 22nd, 2017
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The Mummy remained on top of the international box office chart, but it fell more than 60% to $53.0 million in 68 markets for totals of $239.1 million internationally and $296.2 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in France, but with just $3.0 million on 615 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it was down 77% to $11.63 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $81.62 million. Its best market is arguably South Korea, where it added $3.73 million on 933 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $23.64 million. The only major market left for the film is Japan, where it opens at the end of the month. It is on pace for about $400 million worldwide, which is not enough to pay for its $195 million production budget. Even if it is a bigger than expected hit on the home market, it will have trouble covering its combined production and advertising budget, which is at least $300 million.
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June 21st, 2017
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Hare Krishna! The Mantra, The Movement and the Swami Who Started it All earned first place on the theater chart with $22,310 in one theater. The Journey debuted in second place with an average of $16,448 in two theaters. Up next were a trio of wide releases, including the overall number one film, Cars 3, with an average of $12,615. All Eyes on Me opened with an average of $10,698. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Wonder Woman, which spent its third week in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,271.
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June 20th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place over the weekend, but it did so with just $53.69 million, which is lower than anticipated. On the other hand, Wonder Woman remains one of the most impressive wide releases of 2017 when it comes to legs. Even if it didn’t earn another dollar, it would still have above average legs. All Eyez on Me went off to a fast start, but has a troubling internal multiplier, which doesn’t bode well for its future. Overall, the box office rose 31% from last weekend to $189 million. Unfortunately, it fell 19% from the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Fortunately, 2017 still has a sizable lead over 2016 at $5.16 billion to $5.00 billion.
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June 17th, 2017
As anticipated, Cars 3 is cruising to the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Disney predicting a weekend of $53.547 million, as of Sunday morning. While that’s a very respectable figure in anyone’s book (and continues Disney’s domination at the box office this year), it’s down markedly from Cars 2’s $66.1 million opening weekend in 2011, and points towards a final domestic box office around $150 million. If that proves to be the case, it’ll be the second-worst performer ever for Pixar, beating only The Good Dinosaur. Talk of a decline at Pixar is over-blown, in my opinion, but this is still a so-so result by their high standards.
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June 17th, 2017
As expected, Cars 3 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little more subdued than expected, with just $19.5 million for the day. This is a higher opening day than The Lego Batman Movie managed, but family films have a much higher internal multiplier outside of summer, because kids won’t be able to see the movie during matinees on the Friday. If it has the same internal multiplier as Finding Dory had, it would open with $48 million. While Cars 3’s reviews are not as good, it earned an A from CinemaScore, the same as Dory did. Furthermore, Cars 3 is being seen much more by kids than Dory was, as that film had a larger share of adult animation fans, so this should also help its legs. It won’t match our prediction of $58 million, but $51 million is still a great result.
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June 15th, 2017
It’s a busy week with four truly wide releases, led by Cars 3. The latest film from Pixar is widely expected to earn first place at the box office, but it is part of the only Pixar franchise that isn’t a critical darling. Rough Night is playing in 3,000 theaters, but its early reviews are mixed and that's not going to help its box office numbers. All Eyez on Me is playing in 2,450 theaters, but its early reviews are even worse. Meanwhile, 47 Meters Down’s early reviews were 78% positive, but that has since changed for the worse. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Finding Dory and Central Intelligence, which earned a combined $170 million. There’s no way the four new releases coming out this week will match that. Even another strong hold by Wonder Woman won’t make a difference in the year-over-year competition and 2017 is going to lose.
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June 14th, 2017
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The Mummy debuted in first place on the international chart with $140.76 million on 19,078 screens in 63 markets. The film’s biggest market was China, no surprise there. It earned $52.4 million on 7,364 screens, which is better than Wonder Woman’s opening there last weekend. The film did even better in South Korea, relatively speaking, with an opening weekend of $8.61 million on 1,254 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.80 million. This includes a record for opening day in that market of $6.6 million, while the total opening was the best for Universal. On the downside, the film struggled in the U.K. earning second place with $4.2 million in 563 theaters. That’s weaker than its performance here, relative to the size of the two markets. Furthermore, the film only has two major markets left to open in, France and Japan, while its reviews will likely really hurt its legs. It will earn enough worldwide to pay for its production budget, assuming the $125 million reports are accurate.
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June 13th, 2017
Beatriz at Dinner led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $28,392 in five theaters. Last week’s winner, Wonder Woman, was pushed into second place with a still impressive average of $14,050. The final film in the $10,000 club was The Hero with an average of $11,329 in four theaters.
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June 13th, 2017
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The weekend box office had a few surprises, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, Wonder Woman had the best hold for a major super hero movie since Spider-Man and is on pace for $340 million to $375 million. On the negative side were all three new releases. The Mummy finished on the low side of already low expectations, while It Comes At Night pleased critics, but not moviegoers. Meanwhile, Megan Leavey missed the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office fell 22% from last weekend to $144 million. This is 5.7% lower than this weekend last year. Fortunately, since this time last week, 2017 expanded its lead over 2016 by about $20 million at $4.90 billion to $4.73 billion. We are almost halfway through the year, so a $175 million / 3.7% lead is solid. It isn’t impossible for that lead to evaporate, but it is enough to be cautiously optimistic about the final tally.
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June 11th, 2017
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There are precious few crumbs of comfort to be found from Universal’s launch of The Mummy this weekend. The studio is projecting a $32.2 million opening this weekend from 4,035 theaters. That will be a fairly distant second to Wonder Woman, which is expected to earn about $57.1 million. Even the bright news—that this is Tom Cruise’s biggest global opening weekend—comes with an asterisk.
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June 10th, 2017
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At the beginning of the month, I assumed this weekend would be a close race between Wonder Woman and The Mummy. I assumed The Mummy would at least win on Friday, but that’s not the case, as Wonder Woman remains the number one box office draw. The film earned $15.8 million on Friday, which is 59% lower than its opening Friday. It should bounce back on Saturday and finish the weekend with $53 million, which is just a 49% sophomore stint drop-off. A super hero movie falling less than 50% during its second weekend of release is simply stunning. Granted, its reviews are among the best of the year, so having better than average legs was expect. That said, a 49% drop-off is still an amazing performance and should lead to more than a few movie executives to look for ways to copy its success.
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June 9th, 2017
The Mummy started its domestic box office run last night earning $2.66 million in previews. This is well below expectations and it was already expected to struggle. To put this into perspective, it only earned approximately a quarter of what Wonder Woman managed last week and less than half of what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned the weekend before that. Add in reviews that are just 20% positive and there’s a chance the film’s word-of-mouth will kill the film’s legs by this evening. At this point, a $30 million opening could be asking too much. $25 million isn’t even a sure thing anymore.
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June 8th, 2017
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Last weekend was a great one at the box office with Wonder Woman earning over $100 million during its opening. This weekend isn’t expected to be nearly as potent. The biggest new release is The Mummy, which is supposed to be the start of the Dark Universe, but its reviews suggest this combined universe will be short-lived. It Comes At Night could become A24’s biggest hit, although that’s not a particularly high bar. Finally there’s Megan Leavey. It isn’t expected to open truly wide, but it only needs about $2 million to reach the top ten. This weekend last year was similar in terms of box office strength. The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the way with barely more than $40 million, while there were two other new releases to top $20 million. This year’s crop of new films is nowhere near as good as that; however, the holdovers should make up the difference leaving 2017 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 7th, 2017
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Wonder Woman opened in first place on the international chart with $122.5 million in 55 markets for a global opening weekend of $225.8 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it opened in first place with $38.96 million. This is about $10 million less than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with recently, but then again, that was a sequel, so it is not an entirely fair comparison. Should Wonder Woman have better legs there, then it could still hit $100 million in that market. Other big markets for the movie include South Korea, where it earned $6.40 million on 1,034 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.41 million. This is better than Suicide Squad managed in that market, but behind Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Brazil and Mexico were close behind with $8.3 million and $8.22 million respectively. This is better than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, but not as good as BvS or Suicide Squad. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in the U.K earning $8.00 million in 599 screens, which was still enough for first place. It only managed second place in Russia with $3.99 million on 1,194 screens. Overall, the studio should be happy with these results and I bet there’s a sequel already in early stages of development.
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June 7th, 2017
The winners of our Wonder Why contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Wonder Woman’s opening weekend were...
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June 7th, 2017
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Wonder Woman dominated the theater average chart with an average of $24,790. Second place went to The Exception, a.k.a., The Kaiser’s Last Kiss, which earned an average of $10,675 in two theaters.
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June 6th, 2017
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The overall box office bounced back after a weak Memorial Day thanks to two critically acclaimed movies. Wonder Woman led the way with $103.25 million, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was way back with $23.85 million. Overall, the weekend box office pulled in $185 million, which is 31% more than last weekend. It is also 37% more than the same weekend last year. This helped 2017’s lead over 2016 grow by nearly a full percentage point to 3.5% at $4.69 billion to $4.52 billion.
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June 3rd, 2017
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As expected, Wonder Woman led the way on Friday; however, its box office was a little lower than I would have liked with $38.85 million. (I was expecting $42 million on Friday.) This still gives the film a slim shot at $100 million, although it will likely fall a little short. Fortunately, there are some positive signs we should focus on, including the reviews, which ticked up a point to 94% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Meanwhile, the film earned a solid A from CinemaScore, which should also help its legs. It could still hit $100 million, if it does exceptionally well during matinees on Saturday. We will know this time tomorrow when the weekend estimates are released.
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June 2nd, 2017
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Wonder Woman had the third best previews for 2017 so far at $11 million. Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.4 million) have topped it, while it is double what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned just last weekend. This represents the biggest previews for a movie directed by a woman, surpassing Fifty Shades of Grey and I'm very happy this film took away a record from Fifty Shades. So what does this tell us about the film’s box office chances? Sadly, not much. It is right were most people were expecting, so I don’t feel the need to adjust our prediction, but there are a lot of unknown factors that could affect the weekend number. Firstly, the film’s reviews are 93% positive and the word-of-mouth should be just as strong. However, the Fangirl Effect could frontload the film’s box office numbers, thus hurting its legs. There have not been enough female led superhero movies to come out to make a judgment at this time. At the moment, $100 million seems safe, but that could change this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates come in and that number could drop to $90 million or rise to $120 million. Hopefully it is the latter.
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June 2nd, 2017
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There are two, maybe three wide releases coming out next week; however, if Wonder Woman lives up to expectations, it will have a great shot at repeating in top spot. The only film with a chance of earning first place is The Mummy. Because it is clearly the biggest new release, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Mummy.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 2nd, 2017
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It’s the first weekend of June and it looks like it could be a monster weekend. Wonder Woman could earn over $100 million during the weekend, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is hoping to hit $100 million in total. Both have a great chance of getting there. Add in some solid holdovers and this weekend should earn close to $200 million. By comparison, this weekend last year was nowhere near as strong with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earning first place with just $35.32 million. Wonder Woman will earn more than that opening day. There’s a chance Wonder Woman will earn more over the weekend than the top five earned this weekend last year.
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June 1st, 2017
May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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May 25th, 2017
Next weekend is the first weekend of June and Wonder Woman is hoping to get the month off to a very fast start and should become one of the biggest hits of the year so far. (Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is just hoping to thrive in a counter-programming role.) I’m not saying Wonder Woman will open with $100 million, but it could earn more during its opening weekend than the top four did the same weekend last year. Because it is going to dominate the box office so much, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Wonder Woman.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 10th, 2017
Super hero adventure starring Gal Gadot and Chris Pine opens June 2, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 4th, 2016
Super hero adventure starring Gal Gadot and Chris Pine opens June 2, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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