Home Market Releases for April 14th, 2020

April 14th, 2020

It’s another bad week on the home market. There’s not much in the way of big releases and only a couple of releases were Pick of the Week contenders. Destry Rides Again: The Criterion Collection and Police Squad: The Complete Series were the only two releases that I was considering and the latter won out in the end. More...

VOD Releases: Will these VOD Releases Rescue the Movie Industry?

March 26th, 2020

With the COVID-19 outbreak causing mass shutdowns of non-essential businesses in a lot of places, theatrical releases are, for the most part, non-existent. However, the movie industry is trying to rapidly adapt to this and so are we. They are fast-tracking lots of theatrical releases to VOD and we will be expanding our coverage of VOD releases. Like last week, there are a lot of fast-tracked theatrical releases coming out this week, but we also have the more typical VOD premieres to talk about. Of the former category, Bad Boys for Life is clearly leading the way, although Birds of Prey is coming out on Friday rather than Tuesday, so it gets a jump on the action. Of the latter category, Banana Split is the film that I’m most interested in seeing. Sadly, there are so many major VOD releases this week that I fear it will slip between the cracks. More...

Home Market Releases for March 24th, 2020

March 23rd, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak had basically ended the theatrical market with most theaters closed. Only drive-ins are showing any signs of life. Unfortunately, this is having an effect on the home market as well, some of it positive, some of it very negative. There is a rush to get movies from theaters to the home market and that’s helping improve the list this week. On the other hand, uncertainty with supply chains and stores being open means we could have a very short list next weekend, and next month. There are some big releases this week, including 1917, while Birds of Prey leads the VOD list. However, for Pick of the Week, I went with a much older film, Leave Her to Heaven, which is getting a Criterion Collection release this week. More...

Home Market Releases for March 10th, 2020

March 11th, 2020

It’s another terrible week on the home market. There are a couple of Oscar-bait releases to talk about, but neither are Pick of the Week contenders, at least in my opinion. There are no movies that are anything more than midlevel hits. The best new release of the week, at least in my opinion, is Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Ultimate Collector’s Edition Blu-ray. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Older Release Dominates the New Year

January 14th, 2020

It was a mixed weekend with the two wide expansions bettering predictions by small margins, but most of the rest of the top five failed to do so. Granted, no film truly bombed, but the little misses did add up causing the total box office to slip by 6.6% from last weekend hitting $132 million. Dips like this are expected at this time of year, as the big holiday releases are fading and January releases just are not expected to be able to compensate. On the positive side, this weekend was 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s helped 2020 get off to an early 6.3% / $24 million lead at $410 million to $386 million. This is not only a faster start than last year, it is actually faster than 2018, which set the record at the end of the year. I’m not saying 2020 will have the biggest total domestic box office; it is far too early to make a prediction like that. However, an early lead can help, as it sets a tone of winning. If the dominant story is a weak box office, then moviegoers could assume the movies coming out are not worth going to see and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. More...

Weekend Estimates: 1917 Fires First Shots in 2020 Box Office Race

January 12th, 2020

1917 is matching projections based on Friday estimates perfectly with a weekend estimate of $36.5 million, which would push its total run to $39.2 million so far. This is a little above our prediction, and much higher than studio expectations. It has some of the best reviews in the top ten and a solid A-minus rating from CinemaScore, both of which should help its legs. Its legs will get even longer if it does well in the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Interestingly, the film isn’t skewing as old as I thought it would, as 47% of its audience was in the 18-through-34 age bracket, compared to just 18% at 55 and above. The film is earning $19.92 million from 30 international markets, although it is being released by multiple studios outside the domestic market, which makes tracking more difficult, as no one studio is giving a complete picture. Hopefully we will get enough smaller details to piece things together by Wednesday. More...

Friday Estimates: 1917 has Exemplary Start to Wide Expansion

January 11th, 2020

1917 earned $13.97 million during the first Friday of its wide expansion. Universal is projecting a $36.5 million weekend after this result, which is a little better than we predicted and better than most were expecting after its Thursday previews. Add in the film’s stellar reviews and its likely performance when the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, and the film should have very long legs. (It earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is actually lower than I was anticipating.) Universal didn’t have a great 2019 domestically, so an early $100 million hit would help its 2020 run get off to a better start. More...

Thursday Night Previews: 1917 Pulls in $3.5 million in Previews - Update

January 10th, 2020

1917 started its wide release with $3.5 million on Thursday during its previews. This is more than the film made during two weeks of limited release and it had a stellar run in limited release. Some are saying this is a weaker than anticipated start, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Dunkirk earned $5.5 million and if this film just manages the same legs it will open with $32 million, which isn’t that far below our prediction. Furthermore, Dunkirk was a summer release, which would help its previews. Another comparison is American Sniper, which was also a limited release that expanded in January. That film made $5.3 million during its previews on its way to a nearly $90 million wide expansion. If this film does the same, then it will earn nearly $60 million over the weekend. That’s not going to happen, as American Sniper was an anomaly in so many ways that you can’t assume any film will ever match its start, but it does show getting to $35 million after this start isn’t a stretch. This is especially true if mainstream audiences like the film as much as critics did. We won’t have solid evidence either way until the CinemaScore comes out, but I would be surprised if it is less than an A-rating. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can 1917 Race to First Place?

January 9th, 2020

It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: 1917 Helps 2020 Start on a Strong Note

January 9th, 2020

There were three films in the $10,000 club, all of them holdovers. 1917 led the way with an average of $56,154 in 11 theaters, which is 7% higher than its opening weekend. I’m very excited for its wide expansion this weekend. On the other hand, Just Mercy fell to an average of $19,154 in four theaters. That’s still good, but perhaps not good enough to thrive in wide release. We finally got numbers for Ashfall as its distributor was closed over the Christmas break. The film earned an average of $16,198 in two theaters during its third weekend of release. More...

Weekend Estimates: Skywalker Slips on Saturday, Still Scores First Place

January 5th, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker isn’t going to live up to projections based on Friday estimates, but it is still expected to land a little north of weekend predictions with an estimated weekend haul of $33.74 million for a three-week total of $450.80 million. A 53% decline at this time of year isn’t a great result and it is clear the film’s reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore are not doing it any favors. That said, it is still one of the biggest hits released in 2019, both domestically and worldwide. Internationally, the film is pulling in $50.5 million in 53 markets for totals of $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it debuts in South Korea and the Philippines this coming weekend and that should help it hit $1 billion worldwide. More...

Theater Averages: 1917 Helps 2019 End on a Strong Note

January 2nd, 2020

Only four limited release announced box office numbers for the final weekend of 2019, but all four were in the $10,000 club. 1917 led the way with an average of $52,383 in 11 theaters. That was over the three-day weekend. It earned over $1 million during its five-day debut. Just Mercy was well back with an estimated average of $27,250 in four theaters over the three-day weekend. Ip Man: The Finale will probably turn out to be poorly named, because the movie earned over $1 million over the three-day weekend and earned an average of $20,850. I’m sure someone is trying to figure out how to continue the franchise, despite the Finale part of the name. Clemency was next with an average of $17,682 in two theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which earned an average of $16,430 during its second weekend of release. More...

2020 Preview: January

January 1st, 2020

It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there. More...

Christmas Releases: Little Women hopes to have a Large Opening Day

December 24th, 2019

It’s a Tuesday Christmas Eve, and that makes for a challenging situation for box office prognosticators, with Wednesday releases adding to the difficulties. Because of that, I am going to combine the weekend predictions and the limited releases into one shorter column. I will talk about all new releases / expansions for this week without going into detail over their box office chances. Look for a more comprehensive prediction column Thursday as usual. The biggest of the Christmas Day releases should be Little Women; however, that film is making big push for awards, and will likely have very long legs as a result. Conversely, Spies in Disguise is a rare family film opening on Christmas, which makes it a real wild card. More...

2020 - Awards Season: SAG - Nominations

December 12th, 2019

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations this week and we are starting to see some patterns with similar names appearing over and over again. This time Bombshell led the way, earning four nominations, but four other films earned two or more nominations. More...

Just Mercy Trailer

November 20th, 2019

Real-life drama starring Michael B. Jordan and Jamie Foxx opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details.

After graduating from Harvard, Bryan had his pick of lucrative jobs. Instead, he heads to Alabama to defend those wrongly condemned or who were not afforded proper representation, with the support of local advocate Eva Ansley. One of his first, and most incendiary, cases is that of Walter McMillian, who, in 1987, was sentenced to die for the notorious murder of an 18-year-old girl, despite a preponderance of evidence proving his innocence and the fact that the only testimony against him came from a criminal with a motive to lie. In the years that follow, Bryan becomes embroiled in a labyrinth of legal and political maneuverings and overt and unabashed racism as he fights for Walter, and others like him, with the odds—and the system—stacked against them. More...