Christmas Releases: Little Women hopes to have a Large Opening Day
December 24, 2019
It’s a Tuesday Christmas Eve, and that makes for a challenging situation for box office prognosticators, with Wednesday releases adding to the difficulties. Because of that, I am going to combine the weekend predictions and the limited releases into one shorter column. I will talk about all new releases / expansions for this week without going into detail over their box office chances. Look for a more comprehensive prediction column Thursday as usual. The biggest of the Christmas Day releases should be Little Women; however, that film is making big push for awards, and will likely have very long legs as a result. Conversely, Spies in Disguise is a rare family film opening on Christmas, which makes it a real wild card.
Little Women is the latest adaptation of the Louisa May Alcott novel of the same name. This version was adapted and directed by Greta Gerwig, who is rapidly becoming one of the most consistent Awards Season contenders working today. Given her track record, it should come as no surprise that the film is earning 94% positive reviews to go with its Golden Globe Nomiations. Furthermore, historically speaking, Christmas Day is a good day to release Oscar-bait and that could help the film thrive at the box office.
Spies in Disguise isn’t earning as strong reviews as the previous film, but a Tomatometer Score of 78% positive is great for a family film. Unfortunately, Christmas Day is a little late in the year to release a family film, as the school holidays began several days ago. It isn’t unprecedented, as films like Bedtime Stories were able to open with $10 million on Christmas Day and go on to earn over $100 million domestically. That seems overly optimistic for this film, but it could surprise.
Uncut Gems got off to an amazing start and already has $1 million in just two weeks of limited release. Now it is expanding wide. Its reviews and its Awards Season success so far suggests it will be a hit, and an expansion into 2,341 theaters tomorrow gives it a large platform to do well at the box office.
As for the limited releases, there are a few here that could make an impact at the box office and a couple that will be remembered as busted Oscar-bait, if they are remembered at all.
1917 - Reviews
Clemency - Reviews
Ip Man 4 - Reviews
Just Mercy - Reviews
Les Misérables - Reviews
The Song of Names - Reviews
What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael - Reviews
The White Sheik - Reviews
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A World War I film that has earned amazing reviews and has already earned some Awards Season nominations. Additionally, it arguably has the loudest pre-release buzz on this week’s list.
Another Oscar-contender that is earning strong reviews and has previous Awards Season nominations. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear this one will slip between the cracks. There’s another Oscar hopeful coming out this week that also deals with the justice system, Just Mercy, so I think the two films will cannibalize each other’s audiences too much to succeed.
There’s no way this film will be an Awards Season contender, as it is the wrong genre to win awards. That said, the franchise is popular enough that it could find an audience in theaters. The film has certainly found an audience internationally.
The second Oscar-bait film about the criminal justice system on this week’s list. This one is earning weaker reviews and it has almost no chance to win any major awards, but it could play spoiler for Clemency, but stealing some of its audience and preventing enough people from seeing it.
Another Oscar-contender that has already earned an Awards Season Awards Season nomination. It’s a foreign-language film, so its box office chances are a lot more limited, but it could do well with art house audiences.
Busted Oscar-bait.
A documentary about Pauline Kael, the famed movie critic. The film wasn’t shortlisted for an Oscar and that will hurt its box office chances, but the reviews are still good enough to draw in fans of the genre.
A re-release of the 1950s film by Federico Fellini. The reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are unanimously positive, but re-releases rarely pull in large audiences in theaters.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Limited Releases, Spies in Disguise, Just Mercy, Uncut Gems, 1917, Little Women, What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael, The Song of Names, Clemency, Les misérables, Yip Man 4, Lo sceicco bianco, Ip Man, Federico Fellini, Greta Gerwig, Louisa May Alcott, Pauline Kael