February 5th, 2019
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We are finally getting to the massive fall hits on the home market, as Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch hits the home market this week. It is the biggest release, but not the best. The Pick of the Week was a coin toss between Maquia: When The Promised Flower Blooms and Widows. In the end, the latter won, but both are worth buying.
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January 24th, 2019
We’re getting close to the monster hits from fall finally coming out on the home market. Closer, but we are not quite there yet. This week’s biggest release is First Man, but it is not the best. The race for Pick of the Week came down to three contenders: Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, The Hate U Give, and JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: Set Three. It was a close race, but in the end The Hate U Give won out.
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November 19th, 2018
As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the weekend box office chart; however, it failed to meet expectations by about 10%. Additionally, neither Instant Family nor Widows matched expectations and this hurt the overall box office, which fell 2.9% from last weekend to $172 million. More importantly, this is 14% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has reached $10 billion and now has a running tally of $10.18 billion. This is 11% or $1.01 billion ahead of last year’s pace.
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November 12th, 2018
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The weekend box office had a few success stories and a couple of misses. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch was one of the success stories with $67.57 million, which matches predictions perfectly. The other two new wide releases were less successful. Overlord did okay, but it will need a lot of help to break even any time soon. On the other hand, The Girl in the Spider’s Web likely won’t break even. The overall box office rose 15% from last weekend hitting $167 million. This is 11% more from the same weekend last year. I really wasn’t expecting 2018’s losing streak to end after just one weekend. This is great news. 2018’s lead over 2017 is practically the same as it was last weekend at $1.01 billion or 11% at $9.95 billion to $8.94 billion.
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November 11th, 2018
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The Weekend box office is on par with expectations, for the most part. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch is dominating the box office chart with an estimated $66.0 million debut. This isn’t the record for biggest November weekend for an animated film, but it is reasonably close. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest reasonably long legs at the box office. In fact, with the holidays coming up, it has an outside chance at $200 million. Internationally, its start is a little more muted at $12.7 million in 23 markets, including $6.53 in 559 theaters in the U.K. That’s equivalent to a $35 million opening here, given the relative size of the two markets.
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November 10th, 2018
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Dr Seuss’ The Grinch debuted in first place on Friday with $18.67 million. This is not quite as good as we were originally expecting, but better than its previews would indicate. This is good news for the film’s long term chances. Its reviews having fallen below the overall positive level. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, which is good for a family film, but not great. Universal expects the film to earn $67 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our $68 million prediction to be a success. It is also very close to its $75 million production budget.
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November 9th, 2018
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Dr Seuss’ The Grinch started its box office run with previews in 3,200 theaters earning $2.2 million. By comparison, Smallfoot, the most recent computer animated film, earned $850,000 during its previews. If The Grinch has the same legs, then it would make $60 million during its opening weekend, which is a little lower than our prediction, but still a great start for a film that cost $75 million to make. On the other hand, this film’s reviews are not as good as Smallfoot’s reviews are, which could lead to weaker word-of-mouth. Additionally, it is based on a well-known book, so that could front-load the film’s box office numbers. Hopefully this won’t be an issue and the film will top $60 million with ease. We will know more by this time tomorrow when the Friday Estimates show up.
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November 8th, 2018
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch could be the biggest hit of the month, if it gets off to a fast start this weekend. There is some good news, as it could break The Incredibles’ record for November weekend for an animated film. This weekend, The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Overlord are both aiming to become midlevel hits. I’m not sure either will get there. Their buzz hasn’t grown as their release date has neared, which is troubling. This does mean Bohemian Rhapsody will very likely earn a solid second place, while The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has a shot at third. This weekend last year, Thor: Ragnarok earned more than $57 million during its second weekend of release, while the combined openings of Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express were even better. 2018 should be better on top, but it won’t have the same depth leading to a loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 1st, 2018
October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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September 19th, 2018
Thriller starring Claire Foy opens November 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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June 8th, 2018
Thriller starring Claire Foy opens November 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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