Weekend Estimates: Grinch Grabs First Place, Bohemian Sings a Long Note
November 11, 2018
The Weekend box office is on par with expectations, for the most part. Dr Seuss’ The Grinch is dominating the box office chart with an estimated $66.0 million debut. This isn’t the record for biggest November weekend for an animated film, but it is reasonably close. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest reasonably long legs at the box office. In fact, with the holidays coming up, it has an outside chance at $200 million. Internationally, its start is a little more muted at $12.7 million in 23 markets, including $6.53 in 559 theaters in the U.K. That’s equivalent to a $35 million opening here, given the relative size of the two markets.
Bohemian Rhapsody is the biggest positive surprise of the weekend down just 40% to an estimated $30.85 million over the weekend, which would give it $100.01 million after two weeks of release. This is great news for Fox, which has not had a great year. In fact, if this number holds, it will become only the studio’s second film released in 2018 to get to the century mark. The film itself isn’t great, so I think this is a case of the soundtrack saving the movie.
It appears Overlord will match expectations perfectly with $10.1 million during its opening weekend. The film earned the best reviews out of the three wide releases this weekend and managed a B from CinemaScore, which is good for a horror film. That said, horror films rarely have long legs in theaters. The film reportedly cost $38 million to make, so it should break even sometime during its home market run, assuming it can find an audience internationally.
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms reportedly plummeted 53% to an estimated $9.57 million over the weekend and a two-week total of $35.26 million. The film is doing better internationally with $13.5 million in 45 markets over the weekend for a two-week total of $61.4 million. However, even if it can match its $133 million production budget internationally, which is not likely at this point, the film won’t break even unless it somehow becomes a holiday tradition.
The Girl in the Spider’s Web will miss expectations with an estimated $8.02 million during its opening weekend. In fact, it might not reach the top five, as A Star is Born is right behind according to studio estimates. Its reviews and its B from CinemaScore won’t help its legs, neither will its international run. The film added $6.2 million this weekend for an early international total of $8.3 million.
Looking in on the limited releases, The Front Runner is expected to opened with $56,000 in four theaters over the weekend for a six-day opening of $76,000.
- Dr Seuss’ The Grinch Comparisons
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- The Girl in the Spider’s Web Comparisons
- Overlord Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, A Star is Born, The Girl in the Spider’s Web, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, The Front Runner, Overlord