Home Market Releases for March 3rd, 2020

March 5th, 2020

It’s a terrible week on the home market with almost no prime new releases. In fact, if there weren’t a couple of late screeners to talk about and several secondary VOD titles, the main list would be very short. The week is so weak that Jojo Rabbit is really the only choice for Pick of the Week, even though it came out about a month ago. More...

Home Market Releases for February 11th, 2020

February 12th, 2020

It’s another slow week on the home market, but that doesn’t mean there are no first run releases of note. Ford v. Ferrari is the biggest and the best of these releases, but you might have trouble getting it on Amazon. There are some impressive foreign imports on this list, including First Love, Fruits Basket, Jojo’s Bizarre Adventure, and Roma. That last one is also the Pick of the Week. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscars Winners and Reactions

February 10th, 2020

The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 8th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest closes at noon, Pacific Time, on Sunday, so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We finish our shortened schedule with Best Picture, which is basically a two-horse race at this point. More...

Home Market Releases for January 28th, 2020

January 30th, 2020

The big winter releases are starting to come out, but the overall quantity of releases is still rather soft. Terminator: Dark Fate is the biggest release of the week, but it isn’t the best. As for the best, it was a close two-way race between Fail Safe and Parasite, with the latter winning by the tiniest of margins. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 13th, 2020

The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year. More...

2020 - Awards Season: SAG - Nominations

December 12th, 2019

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations this week and we are starting to see some patterns with similar names appearing over and over again. This time Bombshell led the way, earning four nominations, but four other films earned two or more nominations. More...

2020 Awards Season: Golden Globes Nominations

December 11th, 2019

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Post-holiday Blues Gets to Frozen II

December 10th, 2019

As expected, the box office collapsed this week, as it always does in a post-holiday weekend. Despite the best efforts of Frozen II and Knives Out, the overall weekend box office fell 50% to $89 million. This is 5.4% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s the more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 closed ground with 2018, albeit by a tiny margin and this year is still behind last year by 5.9% or $630 million at $10.16 billion to $10.80 billion. It has been a long time since we’ve seen the box office decline by that high of a percentage in one year; however, 2019 is still on pace to be the second highest grossing year of all time and it still has higher ticket sales than 2017 had at this point, so I think we shouldn’t panic over this. More...

Weekend Estimates: Frozen Falls, Still Set to Top Predecessor

December 8th, 2019

Frozen II fell both faster than expected, and faster than projections based on Friday’s estimates. However, the film is still managing an estimated $34.67 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $337.59 million. This is enough to push it ahead of Joker and into seventh place on the yearly chart. If this holds up, then it will have an excellent shot at topping the first Frozen’s domestic total, even without the Christmas break coming up. Internationally, the film pulled in $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. It had no major market openings this weekend, but it is earning an estimated $800,000 in South Africa, which would make it the second biggest opening for an animated film there, behind only Minions. The film has become the biggest animated film in South Korea with $75.5 million. It as also topped its predecessor in Russia ($23.0 million) and Mexico ($21.1 million) and a lot of smaller markets. More...

Friday Estimates: Frozen Begins to Thaw, Playmobil Nowhere to be Found

December 7th, 2019

As expected, Frozen II earned first place on the Friday box office chart. However, the film fell further than anticipated, earning $7.84 million—off 77% from last Friday. That was a holiday, so obviously it will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but projections have the film earning about $36 million compared to our $38 million prediction. This is close enough that I’m satisfied with the result and it is more than enough to keep it in wide release until after the new year. More...

Weekend Predictions: December Will Start on a Chilly Note

December 5th, 2019

The weekend after Thanksgiving is one of the worst weeks of the year to release a film wide. In fact, many years there are no wide releases. This year, Playmobil gets thrown to the wolves, or to the mercy of Frozen II, to be more specific. I can’t imagine it will survive the competition. In fact, most think the wide expansion of Dark Waters will beat it at the box office and that film isn’t expected to land in the top five. This weekend last year had no wide releases and Frozen II should earn more than last year’s top two films, Ralph Breaks the Internet and The Grinch, earned combined. December should get off to a fast start on the year-over-year competition and hopefully that’s a good omen going forward. More...

International Box Office: Frozen II Freezes Out the Competition

December 5th, 2019

Frozen II dominated this past weekend’s international box office chart by almost as large a margin as it did last weekend. The Disney sequel earned $163.8 million in 45 markets for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $739.8 million worldwide. This includes a trio of first-place openings in major markets, led by Russia at $13.7 million on 1,682 screens, while it also topped the charts in Italy ($8.6 million including previews) and Australia ($6.6 million). Furthermore, according to Disney, the film is already the highest-grossing animated film of all time in both the Philippines ($12.2 million) and Indonesia ($11.1 million). It has already topped the original in a number of other markets, mostly in Asia, led by China with an impressive running tally of $91.0 million in just two weeks. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Thanksgiving Shows 2019 still has some Spark Left

December 2nd, 2019

2019 hasn’t been a great year and has consistently been behind 2018. However, 2018 was the biggest ever year at the box office and 2019 has been in a battle for second place for much of the year. Thanksgiving beat expectations and the overall performances over the Thanksgiving weekend really helped 2019’s chances to secure second place. Frozen II broke records earning first place for its three-day and five-day Thanksgiving weekends. In fact, its three-day weekend haul of $85.98 million would have landed in third place on the all-time five-day chart. Additionally, both new releases, Knives Out and Queen and Slim, topped expectations leading to a robust box office. Granted, the overall box office was a little lower, down 12%, from last weekend at $180 million. This is common for Thanksgiving, as the Wednesday and Thursday holidays are so popular with moviegoers that they reduce the box office potential of the Friday through Sunday weekend. This is 56% higher than the same weekend last year, but this is due to a misalignment in the holidays. This Thanksgiving was 16.5% lower than last year’s Thanksgiving, but the misalignment of the holidays does have an effect there as well, so it isn’t a perfect comparison either. Next weekend will be a lot better when it comes to the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a large margin, but 2019 was able to close to the gap a bit to 6.0% or $640 million at $10.03 billion to $10.67 billion. Getting that gap lower is the goal for December, as it is virtually impossible that 2019 will catch up completely. I would be really impressed if they can cut that gap in half. More...

Weekend Estimates: Thanksgiving Stuffs itself on New Releases and Leftovers

December 1st, 2019

Frozen II’s weekend haul wasn’t quite up to the level it was during the week, but it was still impressive. In fact, it is matching our prediction nearly perfectly with $85.25 million, giving it $123.75 million over five days and a running tally of $287.57 million. It will break the three-day and the five-day Thanksgiving records, topping the second place film, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, by substantial margins. Frozen II will have no trouble getting to $300 million shortly, while topping $400 million is practically assured at this point. Meanwhile, it is adding $163.8 million in 45 markets internationally for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $738.6 million worldwide. The film had a trio of first-place openings in major markets this past weekend, including Russia with $13.7 million, which Disney is reporting as the best opening for an animated film in that market. In Italy, it earned $7.7 million over the weekend and $8.6 million including previews, which is the best for a Disney animated film. It wasn’t as impressive in Australia with an opening of $6.6 million, but this was still 59% more than the first Frozen opened with in that market. At this point, the film has fully paid for its production budget, and while it likely cost between $150 million and $200 million to advertise, it should last in theaters long enough to cover that as well. That’s assuming the film had no more markets to open in, which isn’t the case. It has yet to open in Brazil and some smaller markets, so it should get a boost at the box office over the next month and a bit. More...

Friday Estimates: Frozen II in the Black on Black Friday

November 30th, 2019

Frozen II remains on pace to top expectations and set a couple of Thanksgiving weekend records. It should earn both the three-day and the five-day records. In fact, with a Friday haul of $34.03 million, it is on pace for about $85 million from Friday through Sunday, meaning its three-day Thanksgiving weekend won’t be too far behind the first Frozen’s five-day Thanksgiving weekend haul of $93.59 million. Even with weaker legs thanks to weaker reviews, a lower A minus CinemaScore, and being a sequel, it is still on pace to top its predecessor and hit $400 million domestically with ease. More...

Daily Box Tracking: Catching Fire Melts Frozen, but Frozen Still on Record Pace

November 29th, 2019

Frozen II slipped faster than anticipated on Thursday, pulling in $14.72 million. Family films tend to fall faster on Thanksgiving Thursday, because families spend time with each other rather than going to the theaters, but I was hoping it wouldn’t fall quite this fast. Frozen II fell fast enough that the more adult oriented The Hunger Games: Catching Fire remains the Biggest Thursday in November, albeit by a very close margin. Furthermore, the film is still well ahead of our prediction, helping it crack $200 million domestically on Thursday. Projections have the film destroying the 5-Day Thanksgiving record, with $130 million, maybe more, so there’s plenty to celebrate. As for the film’s long term chances, it doesn’t have any direct competition until Christmas Day, so it will have no trouble remaining in wide release until the New Year. More...

Daily Box Tracking: Frozen Fills Up on Wednesday, Knives Out Opens on the Up and Up

November 28th, 2019

After breaking the record for Biggest Monday of November and the Biggest Tuesday of November, Frozen II had to settle for second place for the Biggest Wednesday of November, as it earned $23.78 million on Wednesday. This puts it just shy of The Matrix Revolutions’s record of $24.31 million; however, that was The Matrix Revolutions’ opening day, so I think it is safe to assume Frozen II will be back on top on Thursday. Furthermore, this puts the film on pace to top our prediction by a substantial margin. In fact, it looks like it will top its three-day opening weekend over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. It’s chances of matching its predecessor have increased dramatically. More...

International Box Office: Frozen II Puts a Chill on the Competition

November 27th, 2019

Frozen II dominated the international box office the way few films manage, earning $228.2 million in 37 markets for a worldwide debut of $358.2 million. This includes a $54.38 million debut in China, which is more than the second place film earned on the worldwide chart. In fact, the movie earned more in South Korea with a total opening of $32.31 million on 2,648 screens, including $28.10 million over the weekend than the second place film on the worldwide chart earned. In the U.K., it pulled in $19.36 million in 671 theaters, while it also cracked $10 million in both Germany ($14.9 million) and France ($13.4 million). Furthermore, the film has yet to open in Italy, Russia, Australia, and Brazil, so it isn’t done yet and should remain on top of the chart for a few weeks. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences be Thankful this Thanksgiving?

November 27th, 2019

There are two wide releases this Thanksgiving, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Unfortunately, only one of those two films, Knives Out, is expected to make any real impact at the box office. Queen and Slim is just hoping to reach the top five. That said, both films will be crushed by Frozen II, which broke records last weekend and it is expected to have a strong hold during the holidays. This weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving and the biggest new release was The Possession of Hannah Grace. Queen and Slim should top that at the box office. In fact, Knives Out might top Ralph Breaks the Internet’s sophomore stint, so even without Frozen II, the weekend would be looking good. 2019 might do well enough on the year-over-year competition that it will save November and give the year a real shot at ending on a strong note. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Frozen has Fantastic Opening with $130.26 million

November 26th, 2019

Frozen II beat expectations over the weekend, and earned several records along the way. In fact, its three-day opening of $130.26 million is better than the previous 5-day Thanksgiving weekend for an animated film, a record previously held by Frozen. The other two new releases, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and 21 Bridges, missed expectations, but were close enough that the overall box office was very healthy. In fact, the box office rose 89% from last weekend to $204 million. This was 5.7% lower than the same weekend last year, but this weekend last year was Thanksgiving, so being down by 5.7% during a holiday misalignment is a fantastic result. We did lose the weekday holidays, so year-over-year, 2019 lost a lot of ground to 2018 and is now behind last year’s pace by 7.4% or $770 million at $9.71 billion to $10.48 billion. We should gain a lot next weekend, thanks to Thanksgiving, and by the first weekend of December, things will settle down. More...

Weekend Estimates: Frozen II Sets Animation Records with $127 million

November 24th, 2019

It didn’t look like Frozen II would match our $125 million prediction based on Friday’s estimate, but if weekend estimates hold, it will did so with $127.0 million. This is not only the highest opening weekend for an Animated film in November, but anytime outside of summer. This greater-than-anticipated internal multiplier stronger suggests better legs overall. It is a family film opening just before Thanksgiving, so it was expected to have long legs regardless, but its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore were merely good and not great. Add in the sequel effect and the film leg’s wouldn’t be nearly as stunning as the first Frozen’s legs were. However, after this result, I’m a lot more confident the film will still be at least a truly wide release come January, if not a saturation level release, as its predecessor was. More...

Friday Estimates: Frozen II Sets Fire to the Record Book

November 23rd, 2019

As expected, Frozen II started with a record-breaking Friday, as the film pulled in $41.8 million during its opening day, the best day in November for an animated film. Combine this start with its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore and the film should have decent legs. The audience reaction is a little disappointing, so I think our prediction of $125 million is unlikely. It will come close enough to become a huge hit domestically. In fact, it is on pace to smash the November 3-day weekend for an animated film by the middle of Saturday and the five-day Thanksgiving weekend for any film by the middle of Sunday, and it isn’t even Thanksgiving. Those records are currently held by The Incredibles ($70.5 million) and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($109.9 million). The Incredibles record will obviously be broken, but we’ll have to wait until next week to see what Thanksgiving looks like. Frozen II is the fastest-starting November animated release of all time, but I don’t think it will have the legs to catch Frozen’s domestic total, unless it is able to remain in saturation level wide release until the New Year. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Frozen Heat Up the Box Office?

November 21st, 2019

The winter holiday season unofficially began on the first weekend of November and so far performance at the box office has been less than acceptable. That needs to—and should—turn around this weekend. According to most industry trackers, Frozen II should break records. Its reviews are far from award-worthy, but they are great for a family film. On the other hand, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’s reviews are award-worthy and the film should have really long legs, especially if major nominations start rolling in. Finally, 21 Bridges has the weakest reviews and the lowest box office potential of the three wide releases this week. This weekend last year was led by the one-two punch of Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II. Frozen II should easily earn more than those two’s combined $92 million. Unfortunately, last year there were four films that topped $20 million over the weekend, while this year there will be only one. Last year’s depth will likely result in 2019 losing yet another weekend in the year-over-year competition. At least it should be close. More...

International Box Office: Ford v Ferrari has a Closer Race Internationally

November 20th, 2019

Ford v Ferrari opened in top spot on the international chart, just like it did domestically. However, it wasn’t nearly as dominant earning $21.4 million in 41 markets. The film wasn’t nearly as strong internationally as it was domestically in most markets, but it did do really well in Russia with an opening of $3.33 million on 1,044 screens, easily earning first place in that market. It’s wasn’t as successful in either the U.K. or France, earning $2.3 million each. On the other hand, the film wasn’t even able to crack $1 million in Spain. This is surprising, as the box office results of sports movies tend to be proportional to their popularity and this kind of auto racing is more popular internationally than it is domestically. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Ford v Ferrari has no Competition at the Box Office

November 18th, 2019

Ford v Ferrari had a good opening over the weekend, but unfortunately, it was only good and not great. Furthermore, it was the only film that had a good weekend. The other two new releases crashed and burned, while the holdovers couldn’t compensate for this weakness. The overall box office fell 11% from last weekend to just $108 million, which was 37% lower than the same weekend last year. The year-to-date numbers don’t look any better, as 2019 is now behind 2018’s pace by a margin of 6.5% or $660 million at $9.47 billion to $10.13 billion. Worse still, 2019 has fallen behind 2016’s pace. Things need to turn around and fast. More...

Weekend Estimates: Ford and Ferrari v Top Five

November 17th, 2019

If the weekend estimates hold, then Ford v Ferrari, with an estimated $31.04 million, will open with almost as much as the rest of the top five combined. A lot of time when something like this happens, it is because there’s a monster hit opening. In this case, Ford v Ferrari will need strong legs just to top its production budget and hit $100 million at the box office and it is dominating the box office due to really weak competition. Fortunately, the film should have strong legs thanks to its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore. The film is not doing as well internationally with an opening of $21.4 million in 41 markets. This includes a $3.2 million debut in Russia and $2.3 million debuts in the U.K. and France. If the film can earn some Awards Season buzz, then it could have the legs to get to $250 million worldwide, which should be enough to break even sometime during its home market run. More...

Friday Estimates: Ford v Ferrari Laps the Competition

November 16th, 2019

Ford v Ferrari is going to dominate the weekend chart. In fact, it earned more on Friday than the second place film is expected to earn during the full weekend. The film pulled in $10.94 million during its opening day, putting it on pace for $30 million over the full weekend, which is significantly ahead of our prediction. Its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore should result in stellar word-of-mouth. It might even do well during Awards Season, although if it does win any Oscars, I think it will be limited to technical categories. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Ferrari gets off to a Fast Start

November 15th, 2019

Ford v Ferrari opened with $2.1 million from its Thursday previews, which is on par with predictions. Its prospects for the weekend still depend on how well its overwhelmingly positive reviews translate into long legs. It’s still too early to revise my $24 million prediction. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Ford get the Pole Position on the Angels?

November 14th, 2019

There are three wide releases coming out this week and at the moment, all three of them have positive reviews. Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news. Ford v Ferrari is the best new release of the week and should have no trouble earning first place on the box office. On the other hand, the film cost nearly $100 million to make, so it will likely struggle to break even any time soon. Charlie’s Angels cost half as much to make, but it is also on track to open with about half as much. The Good Liar is the smallest of the three new films and, with a more mature target audience, it is unlikely to have a big opening. Worse still, it is likely all three new releases this week will earn less than Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opened with this weekend last year. 2019 is going to take another beating in the year-over-year competition and it might even be worse than last weekend was. More...

2019 Preview: November

November 1st, 2019

Joker single-handedly saved October. Had the film merely matched expectations, then the month would had suffered a major loss in the year-over-year competition. We sill lost a little ground, but not so much that we will look to October as the reason 2019 missed last year’s pace. As for November, we have some potential monster hits with Frozen II leading the way. If that film doesn’t earn at least $1 billion worldwide, I will be shocked. Additionally, every week has at least one movie coming out that has a somewhat realistic shot at $100 million, although not all of them will get there. Unfortunately, last November was much better, with five films that topped $100 million, including three that earned more than $200 million. I think 2019 will be better at the top, but it just won’t have the depth to keep pace with last year. More...

Ford v. Ferrari Trailer

June 3rd, 2019

Real-life drama starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale opens November 15 ... Full Movie Details.

An eccentric, determined team of American engineers and designers, led by automotive visionary Carroll Shelby and his British driver, Ken Miles, are dispatched by Henry Ford II with the mission of building from scratch an entirely new race car with the potential to finally defeat the perennially dominant Ferrari at the 1966 Le Mans World Championship. More...