Daily Box Tracking: Catching Fire Melts Frozen, but Frozen Still on Record Pace
November 29, 2019
Frozen II slipped faster than anticipated on Thursday, pulling in $14.72 million. Family films tend to fall faster on Thanksgiving Thursday, because families spend time with each other rather than going to the theaters, but I was hoping it wouldn’t fall quite this fast. Frozen II fell fast enough that the more adult oriented The Hunger Games: Catching Fire remains the Biggest Thursday in November, albeit by a very close margin. Furthermore, the film is still well ahead of our prediction, helping it crack $200 million domestically on Thursday. Projections have the film destroying the 5-Day Thanksgiving record, with $130 million, maybe more, so there’s plenty to celebrate. As for the film’s long term chances, it doesn’t have any direct competition until Christmas Day, so it will have no trouble remaining in wide release until the New Year.
Knives Out fell 27% from its opening day with $6.2 million, for a two-day total of $14.7 million. However, its opening day had two days of previews attached to it, so this is not as extreme a decline as it first looks. Furthermore, the film’s reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest strong word-of-mouth and long legs. I’ve seen projections ranging from $35 million to $45 million for the weekend based on the results so far. Even the low end is better than most people were expecting and would put the film on pace to hit $100 million domestically, with the help of the Christmas break, and perhaps a small boost from Lionsgate.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood earned third place with $3.1 million, while Sony is projecting a five-day Thanksgiving run of $17.5 million. This won’t be enough to keep it in third place over the full weekend, as Ford v Ferrari is right on its tail. On the other hand, other studios think Sony is underestimating the film’s chances, which is common practice, and think it will top $20 million over five days, putting it in a virtual tie for third place. We will find out who is right over the coming few days.
Ford v Ferrari was close behind at $2.84 million. Various projections have the film earning about $20 million over the five-day weekend, which is more than enough to ensure $100 million domestically. This is great news, as the film cost nearly $100 million to make, so it needed to top the century mark to break even any time soon.
Queen and Slim had the best result of any of the films in the top ten on Thursday, growing 36% to $2.37 million for the day for a two-day total of $4.11 million. Part of the reason we saw such impressive growth was the lack of previews on Tuesday, meaning Wednesday’s result wasn’t inflated at all. Also, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore greatly outstripped its buzz. Don’t get me wrong, the film always had positive buzz, it just had really quiet buzz and now that people are seeing it for themselves, the word-of-mouth has been a boon to its box office numbers. It should do well enough over the full weekend to justify expanding beyond its 1,625 theater count.
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Filed under: Daily Box Office, Frozen II, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v. Ferrari, Queen & Slim, Knives Out