Weekend Estimates: Ford and Ferrari v Top Five
November 17, 2019
If the weekend estimates hold, then Ford v Ferrari, with an estimated $31.04 million, will open with almost as much as the rest of the top five combined. A lot of time when something like this happens, it is because there’s a monster hit opening. In this case, Ford v Ferrari will need strong legs just to top its production budget and hit $100 million at the box office and it is dominating the box office due to really weak competition. Fortunately, the film should have strong legs thanks to its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore. The film is not doing as well internationally with an opening of $21.4 million in 41 markets. This includes a $3.2 million debut in Russia and $2.3 million debuts in the U.K. and France. If the film can earn some Awards Season buzz, then it could have the legs to get to $250 million worldwide, which should be enough to break even sometime during its home market run.
Midway is falling 51% to $8.75 million during its sophomore stint for a two-week total of $35.14 million. It is on pace to match its production budget domestically, which is a good sign when it comes to profitability. It is still too early to tell where it will finish internationally, but there are some positive signs. The film has been doing better than anticipated in China and that could be a good omen going forward.
Charlie’s Angels only managed third place according to estimates, with $8.6 million. This is better than the projections based off of Friday estimates, so that’s a positive sign. Perhaps its legs will be longer than its reviews are and its B plus from CinemaScore would indicate. Additionally, the movie is performing better internationally with an estimated opening weekend result of $19.3 million on 25,100 screens in 26 markets, including a $7.7 million, third place, debut in China. Other major markets include $1.3 million in Australia and $1 million in Russia. Additionally, it has yet to open in most major markets, so it should have much longer legs internationally. I’m not saying it is going to be a box office hit, but it could do well enough internationally to not lose a ton of money in the end. It’s domestic performance won’t do much to help though.
Playing with Fire is having the best hold from among the sophomore class, down 33% for an estimated $8.55 million weekend haul. That’s close enough to Charlie’s Angels that it could finish in third place when the weekend final numbers are released tomorrow.
Last Christmas is rounding out the top five with $6.7 million during its second weekend of release for a two-week total of $22.6 million. On the one hand, the holidays are right around the corner and that could help its legs. On the other hand, its theater average is already below $2,000 and that could result in theater owners dropping it before the holidays truly kick off. The film is having a better international weekend with $8.6 million in 21 markets, including a $3.4 million first place debut in the U.K.
As expected, Doctor Sleep is on the outside of the top five looking in with an estimated $6.18 million over the weekend for a total of $25.04 million after two. It is doing no better internationally with $5.2 million on 7,650 screens in 71 markets for a running tally of $28.8 million. It will lose money at this pace, even with a couple of major markets left to open in.
The Good Liar is next with $5.66 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews are merely good, its B from CinemaScore is bad, while its theater average is low enough that theater owners won’t be eager to keep the film longer than they have to.
Meanwhile, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil crossed the $100 million mark on Thursday. Had the film had a normal two-to-one international-to-domestic ratio, then this would have merely been enough to save face. However, the film has been very profitability internationally, earning $350 million so far and it has a slim chance of getting to $500 million worldwide. If it can get close, then it will break even relatively early in its home market run.
Looking in on the limited releases, we find Waves on top of the theater average chart with an average of $36,141 in four theaters. At the moment, second place goes to Jay and Silent Bob Reboot, which is having a phenomenal road show run, and will earn an average of around $16,899 this weekend, despite being in theaters for a full month. The film did cost $10 million to make, so it will need more mainstream success to break even, but this run could result in other studios and film-makers trying this strategy in the future.
-4-News.jpg)
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Charlie’s Angels, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, The Good Liar, Midway, Doctor Sleep, Ford v. Ferrari, Waves, Last Christmas, Playing with Fire, Jay and Silent Bob Reboot