June 6th, 2017
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Summer is usually the slowest time of the year on the home market; however, this week we have the biggest theatrical hit of the year so far coming out. Unfortunately, Beauty and the Beast isn’t really Pick of the Week material. It’s not bad and the DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack hav enough extras to be worth picking up, but that’s not enough to put it over the top. Unfortunately, the film was such a massive hit at the box office that it scared away all of the competition and there’s no real Pick of the Week films on this week’s list.
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May 29th, 2017
Last week was amazing for this time of year with three top-tier releases. This week, the best first-run release is Before I Fall, which deserves to be seen by more, but there are no extras, so it is not a Pick of the Week contender. The actual contenders are limited to The Blackcoat’s Daughter and Ghost World: The Criterion Collection. It isn’t close as to which one comes out on top.
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April 26th, 2017
There were only two films in the $10,000 club on this week's theater average chart and both of them were biographical documentaries. Interesting coincidence. Citizen Jane: Battle for the City led the way with an average of $15,726 in two theaters. Meanwhile, Jeremiah Tower: The Last Magnificent just managed to hit the $10,000 mark with an average of $10,134, also in two theaters.
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March 17th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast had the best previews of the year so far, earning $16.3 million during midnight shows last night. This tops Logan’s $9.5 million, which was the previous record holder. More impressively, it is better than Cinderella’s, The Jungle Book’s, and Maleficent’s combined previews of $10.7 million. Judging where it goes from here is a little tougher, on the other hand. Its reviews are good, but not amazing, while its demographics are more balanced than I expected. The audience was mostly women, but less than 60% overall. Cinderella had a 77% female audience. Also, there was a wide range of age groups among the audience, meaning it wasn’t just families going with their kids, but adults who grew up on the original movie. We predicted $168 million for the weekend, and that could be a little too conservative after this result. I’m not going to change the prediction just yet, but if Friday is big, then we will be forced to readjust our outlook.
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February 28th, 2017
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Get Out beat expectations on the weekend box office chart earning first place with $33.38 million. Not only did it beat expectations, but it also had better than expected legs over the weekend and that bodes well for its long term success. Neither of the other two wide releases, Collide and Rock Dog, earned a spot in the top ten. Both will disappear from theaters A.S.A.P. Overall, the box office fell 17% from last weekend to $123 million. It is, however, 9.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Meanwhile, 2017 remains $100 million behind last year’s pace at $1.69 billion to $1.79 billion. 2017 made gains over the weekend, but The Lego Batman Movie was the number one movie during the midweek and having a kids movie on top hurts the weekday box office numbers.
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February 22nd, 2017
As expected, The Lego Batman Movie easily won the weekend box office race with $32.66 million over the weekend and $42.74 million including Monday. The biggest new release of the week was The Great Wall, which earned $18.47 million / $21.51 million during its opening weekend. Overall, the box office slumped by 21% from last weekend at $145 million. This is still 4.5% higher than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, due to the misalignment in holidays, 2017 still lost ground over the full week. In fact, it is now a full $100 million behind 2016’s pace at $1.53 billion to $1.63 million. It is still too early to really tell where 2017 will end up, but we could really use some big wins right about now.
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February 19th, 2017
The Lego Batman Movie will secure another weekend at the top of the box office chart thanks to a modest 35% drop from its opening, and soft openings for all the new wide releases. The animated adventure will make $34.2 million over three days, and is expected to earn about $45 million when the President’s Day holiday numbers are added in. It will pass $100 million at the domestic box office tomorrow.
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February 18th, 2017
It is a disappointing weekend for new releases, as only The Great Wall managed to match low expectations. This left The Lego Batman Movie cruising to first place on Friday with $7.6 million. It is on pace for $42 million over the four-day weekend and will crack $100 million sometime on Monday, which matches our predictions almost perfectly. If the film can make $150 million domestically and $200 million internationally, then it will break even before it reaches the home market.
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February 17th, 2017
The first numbers for the weekend are in and they are not looking good. The Great Wall earned just $970,000 during its midnight previews, which is significantly less than half of what John Wick: Chapter Two managed just last weekend. Granted, John Wick: Chapter Two was a sequel and those tend to get off to faster starts, while The Great Wall has a Holiday to help boost its legs. On the other hand, The Great Wall’s reviews are much, much worse. We were only predicting just under $19 million during the four-day weekend. We are keeping that for now, but we might have to adjust it lower tomorrow.
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February 16th, 2017
There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to challenge for top spot. Although, there could be an interesting race between the two biggest releases, Fist Fight and The Great Wall. Sadly, this is because both have seen their box office potential fall over the past week. A Cure for Wellness never really had much box office potential. This will leave The Lego Batman Movie with an easy win over the Presidents’ Day long weekend, while we should have five films earning more than $10 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. This weekend last year, there were also three wide releases that struggled at the box office leaving Deadpool with an easy win. The Lego Batman Movie won’t match Deadpool at the top, but 2017 has much better depth, so that should help keep the year-over-year race close.
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February 10th, 2017
Next week there are three wide releases: A Cure for Wellness, Fist Fight, and The Great Wall. A Cure for Wellness was never expected to compete for top spot, but The Great Wall was supposed to be a contender. That’s not going to happen. Its box office potential has tanked and it looks like Fist Fight will easily be the best of the week. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Fist Fight.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2017
January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
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January 16th, 2017
Sci-fi thriller created and directed by Gore Verbinski opens February 17 ... Full Movie Details.
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