Weekend estimates: Honest Thief wins weekend with $3.7 million

October 18th, 2020

Honest Thief will top the domestic box office this weekend with a $3.7 million opening that is in line with expectations, and provides more evidence that the theatrical business is at least stable in the United States. Relatively good numbers for the re-release of The Nightmare Before Christmas bolster that argument, although 2 Hearts is underperforming hopes. Overall, it’s a story of two steps forward, one step back. More...

Weekend predictions: Honest Thief should pull off comfortable weekend win

October 16th, 2020

After last weekend’s surprise win for The War with Grandpa, this weekend is looking a little more predictable, with Honest Thief expected to comfortably top the chart. The overall strength of the market remains very uncertain, but our model is now assuming about 40% of moviegoers are ready to go to theaters, based on Grandpa’s relative strength last weekend. Liam Neeson is a well-known quantity at the box office, and Honest Thief joins a long line of Neeson thrillers, most of which have done very well at the box office. Our model has this new one opening at around $4.4 million. More...

Weekend estimates: The War with Grandpa pulls off surprise win

October 11th, 2020

Although the theatrical market is still in the doldrums, The War with Grandpa is providing some welcome good news this weekend with a surprise win. 101 Studios is projecting $3.608 million for the weekend, which is more than double our prediction, and wouldn’t be a particularly surprising result for a film like this from a new distributor under normal circumstances. Its performance raises some interesting questions about what films will and won’t work in theaters at the moment. More...

Weekend predictions: Grandpa unlikely to challenge Tenet

October 8th, 2020

The War with Grandpa opens in 2,250 theaters this weekend, making it the first truly-wide new release since Infidel back on September 25. Family movies have generally looked weak during the pandemic, but Hocus Pocus did surprisingly well last weekend, earning $1.925 million. Given Grandpa’s wider release and relative freshness, it might have a shot at toppling Tenet from the top of the chart, although our model thinks that’s unlikely. In fact, the re-release of Coco might have a better chance. More...

International Box Office: Infinity Tops the Charts even without China

May 3rd, 2018

Avengers: Infinity War broke the record for highest international debut and highest worldwide debut. The film was expected to do well, but breaking records like this is impressive, especially since it hasn’t opened in China yet. The film started with $380.0 million in 52 markets for a global opening of $637.7 million. It is already the second biggest worldwide hit of the year and just shy of the top 100 all-time. The film’s biggest opening was in the U.K., where it earned $40.50 million in 650 theaters, but this is only the third biggest opening of all time there. On the other hand, it had the biggest opening of all time in South Korea with $27.52 million on 2,553 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $38.79 million. The film also cracked $20 million in Mexico, with an opening of $24.80 million, while it topped $10 million in Brazil ($18.8 million); India ($18.6 million); Australia ($16.07 million on 940 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $22.65 million); and Germany ($14.7 million). The film opens in Russia this weekend and China the following weekend and by the time the film opens in China, it will likely be the biggest global hit of 2018. More...

Home Market Releases for March 20th, 2018

March 20th, 2018

It is a slow week with less than a dozen releases in the main section, and that includes two late reviews. There’s no more than that for the secondary Blu-ray releases. That said, a high percentage of these are worth picking up with many Pick of the Week contenders. For example, the biggest release of the week, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, is one of the best, as is one of the smallest releases, Miss Kiet’s Children. However, in the end, I went with Coco, which technically came out a couple of weeks ago, but the screener arrived late and it really deserves the title of Pick of the Week. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Coco

March 18th, 2018

Coco won Best Feature-Length Animated Film at this year’s Oscars, an award Pixar has won so many times that people sometimes refer to it as The Pixar Award. Did Coco deserve this award? Or have voters just become accustomed to voting for whatever Pixar movie came out that year? More...

Home Market Releases for March 6th, 2018

March 6th, 2018

Thor: Ragnarok is by far the biggest Blu-ray release of the week and one of the best blockbusters of 2017. However, it was already named Pick of the Week last week, so we will have to pick a different film this week. There are a few contenders: The Breadwinner, Faces Places, and Lady Bird. All three of them are Oscars nominated films, none of them won. It was a close call, but in the end, Lady Bird won. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars: And the Winner is... The Shape of Water for Best Picture

March 4th, 2018

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations: Final Look

March 4th, 2018

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning. More...

Home Market Releases for February 27th, 2018

February 27th, 2018

It is a great week on the home market with several Oscar contenders making their home market debuts. I put in review requests for several of them, but so far none have arrived. Coco is still a contender for Pick of the Week, but I’ve heard some backlash against the other two, so I want to wait to see for myself. In the end, I went with Thor: Ragnarok and Pick of the Week, even though the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack don’t come out till next week. The screener arrived early and it is certainly the best Blu-ray on this week’s list. More...

2017 Awards Season: BAFTA Winners

February 18th, 2018

The BAFTAs were handed out on Sunday night, with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning the most awards at five. This is not too surprising, as it was technically a British film, despite its setting, and that gave it a leg up on the competition. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Animated Film

February 15th, 2018

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. A lot of people call this Oscar the Pixar Award, and look at that, there’s a Pixar film on this list. Is Coco the overwhelming favorite? Or does another film have what it takes? More...

Home Market Releases for February 13th, 2018

February 13th, 2018

It’s not a good week in terms of box office numbers, as the biggest box office hit to come out this week is Wonder. It is also one of the best new releases of the week and a contender for Pick of the Week. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Blade of the Immortal, Night of the Living Dead, The Silence of the Lambs, and The Sinner: Season One. In the end, it was a coin toss between Blade of the Immortal and Night of the Living Dead and the former won. More...

International Box Office: The Maze Runner is on a Marathon Pace with $35.5 million

February 7th, 2018

Maze Runner: The Death Cure remained in first place with $35.5 million in 80 markets for totals of $143.2 million internationally and $183.2 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Mexico, where it earned first place with $3.20 million. Its best market overall was China, where it added $5.17 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $38.67 million. More...

Analysis: Films Like The Greatest Showman Should Be Considered Trendsetters, Not Flukes

February 1st, 2018

The Greatest Showman’s box office life has almost mirrored that of a cliché Broadway musical. Before release, no one believed in its dreams: an $84 million circus musical starring Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron that was mocked by the bullies on film Twitter. It even had its darkest moment when it debuted at #4 with just $8.8 million, a definite sign of a total bomb. But then the rallying moment, as the film defied the odds and just kind of stuck around at #4 (and, on one weekend, #5) for 5 weeks straight, each weekend making more than its opening. Now the film’s soundtrack has reached #1 on the Billboard Top 100 albums, #1 on iTunes, and has over 200 million plays on Spotify. Two of the songs (“This is Me” and “Rewrite the Stars”) have been listened to over 50 million times each on Spotify (in comparison, the Spanish version of “Remember Me” from Coco has been listened to 12 million times). The film has earned a Golden Globe for Best Song and an Academy Award nomination for the same song. And, of course, it has shockingly earned over $100 million domestically. It currently stands at $128.2 million, which makes it the 15th-highest-grossing musical of all time, and it will climb higher on that list.

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International Box Office: Death Can’t Stop The Maze Runner’s $62.6 million Weekend

February 1st, 2018

Maze Runner: The Death Cure jumped into first place on the international chart with $62.6 million in 70 markets for an early international total of $82.0 million. The film opened in first place in China with $22.80 million over the weekend for a total opening of $23.07 million. On the other hand, the film struggled in the U.K. earning third place with just $3.19 million in 507 theaters. By the end of the weekend, the studio’s share of the worldwide box office was over $40 million, which is fantastic for a film that cost $61 million to make. It should have no trouble breaking even early in its home market run, if not sooner. More...

International Box Office: Jumanji is King of the Market with $32.6 million

January 24th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle remained in first place with $32.6 million on 33,000 screens in 83 markets for totals of $450.8 million internationally and $767.3 million worldwide. Had the film earned half of that, it still would have been a financial success worthy of a sequel. China was the film’s biggest market, both of the weekend and overall, as it earned $7.71 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $66.50 million. The film will have no trouble getting to $800 million worldwide, probably by the end of this coming weekend, while $900 million isn’t completely out of the question. More...

2017 Awards Season: Oscars Nominations

January 23rd, 2018

The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Can’t Outshine Jumanji’s $19.51 million Weekend Haul

January 23rd, 2018

Nearly every film we talked about in our predictions beat expectations over the weekend. This includes Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned first place with $19.51 million. All three wide releases did better than expected, with 12 Strong leading the way with $15.82 million. The overall box office still fell 15% from last weekend to $135 million. A 15% drop-off for a post-holiday weekend isn’t bad. Compared to this weekend last year, 2018 was down by 7.0%, which isn’t good, but it could have been much worse. Year-to-date, 2018 still has a small lead of 2.9% or $20 million at $725 million to $704 million. Granted, it is still way too early for this to matter, but an early lead means you won’t need to fight back late in the year like we did last year. More...

2017 Awards Season: PGA Winners

January 20th, 2018

The Producers Guild of America awards were handed out last night. There are only three theatrical awards, plus a special award previously announced, and none of the results were truly surprising. In fact, two of them were completely predictable. More...

International Box Office: Jumanji is Welcomed to First Place with $81.75 million

January 18th, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle leaped into first place with $81.75 million on 33,000 screens in 83 markets for totals of $385.03 million internationally and $669.27 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $39.74 million on 20,000 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $40.23 million. Had the film only earned $385.03 million in total, it still would have been enough to to break even before the home market. The film will eventually hit $800 million worldwide, which is enough to cover its entire budget and the production budget of the inevitable sequel. More...

2017 Awards Season: BAFTA Nominations

January 11th, 2018

The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out. More...

2017 Awards Season: Golden Globes Winners

January 7th, 2018

The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises worth talking about, starting at the top. I was not expecting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to be the big winner of the night, but it was with four wins. Only two other movies, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, won more than one award during the night. More...

2017 Awards Season: PGA Nominations

January 5th, 2018

The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) It is a strange year for the PGAs, as there was a tie resulting in 11 films being nominated for the top prize. More...

International Box Office: The Last Jedi Dominates with $230.0 million, but Wasn’t the Only Release

December 20th, 2017

We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers since it debuted, so there’s not a lot to talk about here. The film dominated the international chart with $230.0 million in 54 markets during its first weekend of release, while its worldwide opening was $450.0 million. However, it wasn’t the only film at the international box office. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Last Jedi Tops Expectations with $220.01 million, Ferdinand is a Distant Second Place

December 19th, 2017

We already discussed Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s incredible debut yesterday, but there were other films that were in theaters over the weekend. The Last Jedi earned nearly 80% of the total weekend box office, so the rest of the box office had to settle for the leftovers. Ferdinand was a distant second with just $13.40 million, which is lower than our low expectations. Overall, the box office more than tripled from last week hitting $278 million. More importantly, it rose by 31% when compared to this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 cut 2016’s lead by nearly $100 million in just one week. Granted, 2017 is still behind by $320 million or 3.0% at $10.10 billion to $10.42 billion. However, I just wanted 2017 to cut the lead to $250 million and that looks a lot more likely now than it did even a month ago. More...

Analysis: How Will Disney’s Acquisition of Fox Studios Affect the Industry?

December 17th, 2017

It was announced last week that Disney bought Fox Studios. To be more specific, they bought TV and movie production, cable channels, and the back catalog, but not Fox News, Fox Sports, or the local Fox TV stations. A lot of people have wondered what this will do to the industry. In my opinion, a lot of people have reacted in a disproportionately negative way. I will look at some of the issues that have been brought up, starting with... More...

Weekend Estimates: Last Jedi Set for $220 Million Domestic Debut

December 17th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi will earn $220 million at the domestic box office this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. After starting out with the second-biggest day of all time on Friday (a monstrous $104.787 million, including $45 million in Thursday previews), the film looks to be holding on well through the weekend. Saturday’s estimate is $64 million, off 39% from Friday, compared to The Force Awakens’ decline of 43% on its second day. Disney is projecting a decline of 20% on Sunday, while Awakens dropped 11%, which suggests caution on their part, and the possibility of a final opening weekend a little higher than their current projection. More...

Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi Tops Tracking with $104.78 million Opening Day

December 16th, 2017

The Last Jedi topped last night’s estimate, earning $104.78 million on Friday. It is only the second film to reach the century mark during its opening day. It is still 12% lower than the $119 million The Force Awakens opened with, but if it has the same legs, it will earn $218 million during its opening weekend. The reviews are practically identical and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so having similar legs is more likely. Sequels usually have shorter legs, but The Last Jedi had better growth from Thursday previews to Friday’s numbers, so this could be a good omen. Maybe it will earn $220 million during its opening weekend. More...

Early Friday Estimates Update: The Last Jedi Tracking Ticks Higher now at North of $100 million Opening Day

December 15th, 2017

Disney is really on top of the The Last Jedi hype train sending updated tracking of its opening day. Instead of aiming for $94 million to $99 million, the studio is aiming for $99 million to $104 million, putting on pace to be only the second film to earn $100 million during its opening day. Furthermore, CinemaScore released their final rating and it was a solid A, exactly what the reviews would suggest. The studio expects the film to make $205 million to $215 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our prediction that I’m happy. More...

Weekend Predictions: Last Jedi Goes up Against Rogue and Awakens

December 14th, 2017

2017 is behind 2016’s pace by over $400 million and and this weekend is the last chance it has to cut that deficit by any real margin. This weekend, Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts and it is practically a guaranteed monster hit. Rogue One made just over $400 million in the 2016 calendar year, while The Force Awakens earned just over $650 million. The Last Jedi is widely expected to earn somewhere in-between those results. In the meantime, there is one other wide release, Ferdinand, which is the textbook definition of counter-programming. The studio is just hoping it doesn’t get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, the total box office was $211.57 million. I give The Last Jedi about a 50/50 chance of topping that by itself. More...

International Box Office: Coco Collects Another $55.3 million

December 13th, 2017

Coco earned first place for the second time with $55.3 million in 35 markets for totals of $254.0 million internationally and $389.7 million worldwide. Even if we pretended Christmas wasn’t right around the corner and that the film didn’t still have several major markets left to open in, it would still be on track to earn over $500 million worldwide, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and likely a sizable chunk of its advertising budget. With Christmas less than two weeks away and international openings in Australia, Italy, Brazil, South Korea, the U.K., and Japan still ahead, there’s a chance this film will finish with $750 million worldwide. That would be more than enough to pay for its combined production budget, meaning it will break even before it reaches the home market. As for this past weekend, the film continued to top the chart in China with $34.80 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $127.98 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Continues its Conquest with $18.45 million

December 12th, 2017

It was a good weekend at the box office, relatively speaking, as most films in the top five beat expectations. Granted, this was mostly by tiny amounts, but it added up. We still fell 20% compared to last week to $84 million. This is 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year and we were expecting a similarly close loss, so this is a surprise victory. The year-over-year numbers are almost identical to last week, with this year down by 4.1% or $420 million when compared to last year. Right now 2017 has pulled in $9.79 billion, while 2016 had a running tally of $10.21 billion. More...

2017 - Awards Season: Golden Globes - Nominations

December 11th, 2017

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece. More...

Weekend Estimates: Disaster Artist Hits, Just Getting Started Misses

December 10th, 2017

Coco remains the number one movie at the box office this weekend by a considerable margin, mainly due to a lack of serious competition from new releases. Disney’s animated adventure will gross about $18.3 million this weekend, for a domestic total of $135.5 million. The film will also pile up another $55.3 million internationally, taking its worldwide cume to $389.5 million. It still has some big openings to come, including Brazil, Korea, the UK, and Japan in January, so it has some way to go, although its progress will be eclipsed by The Last Jedi for the next few weeks. More...

Friday Estimates: Coco Clings to the Top, Disaster Artist Achieves a Spot in the Top Five

December 9th, 2017

Coco surprised no one by earning first place on Friday. It earned $4.27 million, giving it a running tally of $121.48 million after 17 days of release and putting it on pace for $19 million over the weekend. Good news: This is a little better than expected. Bad news: Next weekend could be a mess, as the film will not only have to deal with monster competition, but direct competition as well. If it can avoid being demolished at the box office next weekend, then it will stick around in the top ten for the rest of the year. Even if if does get demolished, it still has a shot at $200 million domestically, but it will be close. More...

Weekend Predictions: Coco Looks to Threepeat on Top

December 8th, 2017

There is only one wide release this weekend, Just Getting Started. However, it is barely opening wide and is widely expected to miss the top ten. This means the top five will barely change from last week and Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Office Christmas Party opened in second place, behind Moana. Office Christmas Party was hardly a monster hit, but it was strong enough to keep 2017 from winning the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully, it will still be close. More...

International Box Office: Coco Catapults into First Place with $69.0 million

December 6th, 2017

Coco climbed into first place with $69.0 million in 33 markets for totals of $171.3 million internationally and $281.4 million worldwide. The film opened in a trio of major markets in Europe, earning first place in all three. France led the way with $5.2 million, $6.4 million including previews, while Spain ($2.8 million) and Germany ($2.0 million) were also strong results. It beat Moana’s opening in all three markets. The film grew 146% during its second weekend in China earning $44.17 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $75.79 million. The film is already the biggest Pixar hit in China and is in third place for Disney animated films, behind Zootopia and Big Hero 6.

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Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Holds Strong with $27.53 million, But Moana Sails Further Away

December 5th, 2017

It was a good weekend, as every film in the top five beat expectations at the weekend box office. Granted, in most cases it was by a tiny amount, but any victory is worth celebrating at this point. It has been a really bad year at the box office. (Or to be more accurate, the summer was historically bad and the rest of the year hasn’t been able to compensate.) Coco led the way with $27.53 million and thanks to the holidays, should stick around in the top ten until early 2018 helping it get past $200 million with ease. The overall box office fell 44% from last weekend to $105 million; however, it is a post-holiday weekend, so a decline like this was expected. More importantly, the box office rose 9.7% from last year and this is reason to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016’s pace by 4.1% / $410 million, at $9.68 billion to $10.09 billion, but if we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, then we could really cut into 2016’s lead. More...

Weekend Estimates: Coco Wins, Limited Releases on Fire

December 3rd, 2017

The weekend after Thanksgiving is usually when the studios take a breather before the big Christmas season, and this year is no different, with no new wide releases, and relatively minor shuffles on screen use at the theaters. It’s therefore little surprise that Coco holds on at the top of the chart, and its strong reviews and season-friendly nature help it to extend its lead over Justice League. Coco is headed towards $26.114 million this weekend, according to Disney, for $109 million or so to date. That’s down 49% from last weekend. Justice League, meanwhile, drops a more troubling 60% to $16.58 million, for $197 million after three weekends.

More exciting action lies among the limited and expanding releases, however… More...

Friday Estimates: Coco Pulls In $6.28 million, but Disaster and Water Rule the Box Office

December 2nd, 2017

Coco beat expectations by a tiny margin on Friday, earning $6.28 million. This is 67% lower than its opening Friday, but its opening Friday was also a Holiday, so that’s to be expected. Look for $27 million over the full weekend, which is a little lower than Moana’s second weekend of release, but the gap between the two is closing. Given Coco’s reviews and its A+ from CinemaScore, it might start catching up by this time next week. More...

Weekend Predictions: Coco Will Repeat on Top, but Can it Catch Up with Moana?

November 30th, 2017

There are no wide releases this weekend, which means Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. In fact, most of the top five will remain the same as last weekend. Maybe one of the Awards Season contenders will expand enough to grab a spot in the top five, but that isn’t really likely. This weekend last year, Moana remained in first place, as there were also no new releases to compete against. 2017 should be able to win in the year-over-year comparison, but it will be awfully close. More...

International Box Office: Justice League Plummets, Still Grabs First with in $71.5 million

November 29th, 2017

Justice League plummeted more than 60% to $71.5 million on 32,800 screens in 66 markets for two week totals of $310.98 million internationally and $482.88 million worldwide. It’s only major opening came in Japan, where it earned first place with $3.85 million on 645 screens. This is ahead of Wonder Woman and Thor: Ragnarok, so the movie is keeping its dreams of $800 million worldwide alive. It really needs that much to break even any time soon. Its biggest holdover was China, where it fell 68% to $16.36 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $84.17 million. It should be able to get to the century mark there, which will be reason to celebrate. It remained in first place in Brazil with $5.4 million on 1,617 screens for a two-week total of $24.8 million. More...

Contest: Cuckoo for Coco: Winning Announcement

November 29th, 2017

The winners of our Cuckoo for Coco contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Coco’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Name Finds its Calling with $103,233

November 28th, 2017

Call Me by Your Name dominated the theater average chart with an average of $103,233 in four theaters. It is the first film of the year to reach the $100,000 mark on the per theater chart. Lady Bird was the previous yearly champion with an average of $91,109, also in four theaters. The second-best average of the week was earned by Darkest Hour at $43,752 in four theaters. Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story earned $18,742 in one theater; that’s amazing for a documentary. The overall number one film, Coco, earned an average of $12,742. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Justice League, as it pulled in $10,143. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco is Cream of the Crop with $50.80 / $72.91 million

November 28th, 2017

Coco gave Disney yet another reason to be thankful for Thanksgiving weekend. It topped the chart, to give the studio 10 of the 11 biggest Thanksgiving openings of all time. Meanwhile, Justice League fell a little bit faster than expected, and $250 million domestically might be out of reach. It depends on how well it holds onto its theater count when The Last Jedi opens. Overall, the box office fell 5.2% from last weekend to $189 million. This is 2.4% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s not enough to deal with inflation, but at this point, I’m willing to use any excuse to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 was able to close the gap with 2016, but is still behind 4.1% with $9.53 billion to $9.95 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Coco Gives Disney Another Thanksgiving Win

November 26th, 2017

Coco will easily top the box office chart this Thanksgiving weekend, with Disney projecting a $71 million 5-day opening, including $49 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s the fourth-best Thanksgiving opening of all time, behind Frozen ($94 million), Moana ($82 million), and Toy Story 2 ($80 million). In all, Disney lays claim to 10 of the top 11 opening weekend’s over this holiday period, although, to be fair, the Hunger Games and Harry Potter franchises both claim several spots in the higher reaches of the Thanksgiving weekend record chart, but were just playing in their second weekend, rather than opening.

Nit-picking aside, it’s a great weekend for Coco. More...

Friday Estimates: Coco Opens Strong, But Moana was Stronger

November 25th, 2017

It’s the Saturday after Black Friday, so things are returning to normal. Coco is leading the way, which no one should be terribly surprised by. It earned $13.24 million on Wednesday, which was about 15% lower than Moana’s opening day. It held on better on Thursday, cutting the gap to about 10% with $8.93 million. However, by Friday, it was behind Moana by 15% again. That said, if is maintains this pace throughout the rest of the weekend it will earn $48 million / $71 million during its opening weekend. This is almost exactly as I predicted and more than enough to make Disney very happy. Furthermore, thanks to 96% positive review and an amazing A plus from CinemaScore, as well as no real competition for the next two weeks, the film should have excellent legs. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Coco Come to Life at the Box Office?

November 22nd, 2017

Coco is the only wide release of the week, which is amazing for Thanksgiving weekend. This should boost its chances at the box office and it is now expected to open in first place. Justice League was expected to repeat as box office champion this weekend, but that’s likely not going to happen now. This weekend last year, Moana earned $82 million over the five-day weekend. I don’t think Coco will match that, but it will come close enough to top the chart. More...

International Box Office: Justice League pulls in $184.95 million During Opening Weekend

November 22nd, 2017

Justice League easily won the weekend race on the international chart with a total opening of $184.95 million on 47,000 screens in 65 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it opened with $50.58 million over the weekend for a total opening of $51.89 million. Its best market was Brazil, where it earned $14.2 million on 1,580 screens, which is the biggest all-time opening in that market. In most major markets, the film opened above Wonder Woman and Thor: Ragnarok. For example, the film earned $9.6 million in Mexico, compared to $8.22 million for Wonder Woman and $7.34 million for Thor: Ragnarok. It wasn’t as impressive in every market. For example, it only managed $9.67 million during its first place opening in the U.K., which is equivalent to a little more than $50 million here. The film opens in Japan this weekend, but it will need good legs to pay for its $300 million production budget. More...

Contest: Christmas at Ground Zero: Winning Announcement

November 22nd, 2017

The winners of our Christmas at Ground Zero contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Justice League’s opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Cuckoo for Coco

November 17th, 2017

Next weekend, Coco is the only film that I’m 100% sure is opening truly wide. On the other hand, because it is Thanksgiving, it is opening on the Wednesday, which complicates the contest, as we only care about the Friday through Sunday weekend. It is still the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Coco.

We are continuing our Christmas contest, which means each winner will get a Frankenprize that is either present or a lump of coal. The present will include a couple of movies, TV shows, maybe some kids DVDs, etc., while the lump of coal will be the last of my HD-DVD titles, while they last, as well as something from the prize pool.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

International Box Office: Thor Threepeats with $75.9 million and Overtakes The Dark World

November 15th, 2017

For the third weekend in a row, Thor: Ragnarok dominated the international chart, earning $75.9 million in 56 markets for totals of $438.5 internationally and $650.6 million worldwide. The film fell 59% during its second weekend in China, but this is actually much better than average for the market. It added $21.71 million this past weekend, pushing its running tally to $95.51 million after just two weeks of release in that market. The film held up even better in the U.K., where it dipped just 33% to $4.05 million in 569 theaters for a three-week total of $34.07 million. Its next biggest international market was South Korea, where it has earned $31.07 million, including $3.53 million on 856 screens this past weekend. The film already has more worldwide than either of the previous Thor films earned in total. It has entered the top ten in the MCU and it is on pace to enter the top five on that chart before its done. More...

International Box Office: With $428.7 million, Ragnarok Races to Catch up to Thor

November 9th, 2017

As expected, Thor: Ragnarok remained in first place on the international chart dominating the competition with $151.4 million in 55 markets during its second weekend of release for a two-week total of $306.0 million internationally and $428.7 million worldwide. After just two weeks of release, the film is within striking distance of the original Thor at the worldwide box office and by this time next week, it might surpass The Dark World. As for this past weekend’s highlights, the box office was led by China, where it earned first place with $53.42 million over the weekend for a total opening of $54.53 million. This is the biggest November opening in that market and the biggest total for a Thor film. It had to settle for second place in Mexico, but was still impressive with $7.34 million over the weekend for a total opening of $10.52 million. It also did well in Germany with $5.5 million over the weekend for a total opening of $8.9 million, which is 70% higher than Doctor Strange’s opening there last year. The best holdover came from South Korea, where it was down 47% to $6.39 million on 1,047 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $25.88 million. The only market left to open in is Trinidad, but even with no major markets, the film will have no trouble getting to $500 million internationally and $800 million worldwide. More...

2017 Preview: November

November 1st, 2017

October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point. More...

Coco Trailer

October 17th, 2017

Pixar’s animated adventure opens November 22 ... Full Movie Details. More...