International Round Up: Harry Potter Puts a Spell on China, Crosses $1 Billion Worldwide

August 20th, 2020

The slow march to recovery at the box office continued in international markets at the weekend as theaters opened up and moviegoers continued to return. Progress is being slowed by the lack of new films, particularly from US studios, but catalog titles are filling the void. China took advantage of an opportunity to release a movie from the Harry Potter archive for the first time in the territory, and Australian film fans got a chance to enjoy some original Star Wars. Some local films are also doing well, partly thanks to the lack of competition.

Here’s a round-up of what’s playing around the world, and how markets are recovering. More...

International Round Up: Deliver Us from Box Office Doldrums

August 13th, 2020

South Korea had an explosive weekend with Deliver Us From Evil earning the best opening in that market since January. The film pulled in $10.59 million on 1,997 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.03 million. There is still some bad news in the market though. For instance, Steel Rain 2: Summit fell 70% from last weekend to $1.49 million on 1,016 screens for a total of $10.74 million so far. Peninsula fell a further 67% to $748,000 on 639 screens for a total of $27.08 million after four weeks of release. These are sharp declines, even for South Korea, which isn’t known for long legs. That said, they are not a disaster. Additionally, while the overall box office is only about half of what it was this weekend last year, there are still restrictions in seating capacity in theaters and the lack of depth are still factors, so it appears the box office is in shape to truly bounce back once the situation has returned to normal. More...

Home Market Releases for March 24th, 2020

March 23rd, 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak had basically ended the theatrical market with most theaters closed. Only drive-ins are showing any signs of life. Unfortunately, this is having an effect on the home market as well, some of it positive, some of it very negative. There is a rush to get movies from theaters to the home market and that’s helping improve the list this week. On the other hand, uncertainty with supply chains and stores being open means we could have a very short list next weekend, and next month. There are some big releases this week, including 1917, while Birds of Prey leads the VOD list. However, for Pick of the Week, I went with a much older film, Leave Her to Heaven, which is getting a Criterion Collection release this week. More...

Home Market Releases for March 10th, 2020

March 11th, 2020

It’s another terrible week on the home market. There are a couple of Oscar-bait releases to talk about, but neither are Pick of the Week contenders, at least in my opinion. There are no movies that are anything more than midlevel hits. The best new release of the week, at least in my opinion, is Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Ultimate Collector’s Edition Blu-ray. More...

Theater Averages: A Match Made in Heaven

February 27th, 2020

Emma played matchmaker with audiences and succeeded to the tune of $234,000 in 5 theaters for an average of $46,896. It has significant expansion planned for this weekend and an opening like this is a hopeful sign. On the other hand, I don’t think Come and See will expand significantly, as re-releases rarely do. That said, it did earn $16,053 in one theater, so that theater is happy they booked it. It isn’t looking as bright for Seberg. Granted, it did earn an average of $15,727 in three theaters; however, it was very front-loaded and that’s a bad omen going forward. More...

International Box Office: Sonic Runs Another Lap in First Place

February 27th, 2020

Sonic The Hedgehog remained in first place on the international chart this past weekend earning $38.3 million in 56 markets for totals of $96.5 million internationally and $203.0 million worldwide. It’s only major market opening of the weekend came in Russia where the film earned fourth place with $3.84 million on 2,042 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.62 million. I think Paramount would have been relatively happy had the film finished with just over $200 million worldwide, so this is a fantastic run so far. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Audience Answer the Call?

February 20th, 2020

It’s a post-holiday weekend, so we are not expecting much at the box office. The Call of the Wild is earning good reviews, but not great reviews, while its buzz is far too quiet for its massive production budget. On the other hand, Brahms: The Boy II is a low-budget horror movie earning terrible reviews and frankly I’m sick of talking about these movies. Seriously. We are less than two months into the year and we’ve already at least four other low-budget horror movies to come out. I don’t want to hear anyone complain about too many super hero movies ever again. … Moving on. Neither of these two films are expected to challenge Sonic the Hedgehog for top spot on the box office chart. In fact, I’m not convinced Brahms will open in the top five. This weekend last year, the final installment of the How to Train Your Dragon opened with just over $55 million. There’s no way the box office will match that this year and 2020 is going to lose in the year-over-year competition unless the holdovers hold on a lot better than anticipated. More...

International Box Office: Sonic Speeds its Way to $100 million Globally

February 20th, 2020

Sonic The Hedgehog opened with $43 million in 40 markets for an early worldwide total of just over $101 million. This is a fantastic start for a film that cost $90 million to make and there’s already talk of not just a sequel, but a Sonic Cinematic Universe. The film’s biggest individual market was Mexico, where it opened with $6.82 million, while the U.K. was right behind with $6.17 million on 619 screens. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Audience Love Sonic and the Other New Releases?

February 13th, 2020

Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day combine into one long weekend. It’s a great early weekend of the year and there are four films hoping to take advantage of the holiday to get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, four films is too many for all of them to succeed and it looks like one or two will fall between the cracks. Sonic the Hedgehog is the biggest release of the week and will likely earn more during its opening weekend than any of the three other films will earn in total. This includes The Photograph, the only new release that is earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. It looks like Fantasy Island will have some of the worst reviews of the year. Finally, Downhill has the quietest buzz and that’s going to kill it more than its mixed reviews will. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Alita: Battle Angel opened with $28.5 million, while The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part earned $20.8 million during its sophomore stint. Sonic the Hedgehog should top that with ease. In fact, there are some who think it will top those two films’ combined weekend hauls. If so, then 2020 will return to its winning ways. More...

Theater Averages: The Lodge Takes up Residence in Top Spot

February 13th, 2020

It is very rare for a horror film to lead the way on the theater average chart, but The Lodge did just that with an average of $12,709 in six theaters. The only other member of the $10,000 club was Cane River, which earned $10,240 in its lone theater. More...

International Box Office: Prey for Birds’ International Chances

February 13th, 2020

Birds of Prey debuted in first place on the international chart with $46.5 million on 23,010 screens in 78 markets. This includes some impressive openings, like its first place debuts in Mexico, where it earned $4.18 million on 3,915 screens. It also earned first place in Russia with $3.81 million on 1,881 screens and in Brazil with $2.8 million on 1,506. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in the U.K. with $3.7 million on 1,260 screens and in South Korea with $1.30 million on 946 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.98 million. The film could still break even, if it has long legs in some of the major markets, and if it can increase the home market revenue of some of its other D.C.E.U. films. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: 2020 Suffers Its First Loss

February 11th, 2020

It was bound to happen, I was just hoping it wouldn’t happen this soon, but 2020 suffered its first loss in the year-over-year comparison. Birds of Prey failed to live up to the very low end of expectations opening with just $33 million. On the positive side, the holdovers held on really well and that helped limit losses. In fact, the overall box office was $95 million this weekend, up 18% from last weekend. That said, this is still down 16% from the same weekend last year and this number is a lot more important. Year-to-date, 2020 is still ahead of 2019 by $62 million or 6.2% at $1.07 billion to $1.01 billion, so we clearly shouldn’t be panicking this early on, but there are some troubling signs at the box office. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscars Winners and Reactions

February 10th, 2020

The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat. More...

Weekend Estimates: Harley Quinn Can’t Lead Her Film to Box Office Success

February 9th, 2020

Birds of Prey is missing even the very low end of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $33.25 million. The film is earning good reviews and a decent B plus rating from CinemaScore, and it is also the cheapest installment in the D.C.E.U., so this start isn’t disastrous. On the other hand, it is struggling more internationally with just $48 million on 22,362 screens in 78 markets. Part of this has to do with the coronavirus, which has caused major disruptions in many Asian countries. And I’m not just talking about the entertainment industry. So far close to 1,000 people have died, which is a major disaster. Although to put this into perspective, this flu season, about 10,000 people have died in the United States alone. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 8th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest closes at noon, Pacific Time, on Sunday, so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We finish our shortened schedule with Best Picture, which is basically a two-horse race at this point. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Director

February 8th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest closes at noon, Pacific Time, on Sunday, so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Director. We have yet another close race with two films that are practically a coin-toss away from being the winner. More...

Friday Estimates: Are We Witnessing 2020’s First Loss?

February 8th, 2020

Ouch. Birds of Prey only managed $13.03 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just $32 million to $33 million over the full weekend. This is miles below expectations; it’s even lower than projections based on Thursday’s previews. However, it isn’t a bad opening for a film that cost $75 million to make. Add in the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore and it should have decent legs, especially with the holiday next weekend. It will be the weakest installment in the D.C.E.U. and I think this is clear evidence that making the film R-rated was a mistake. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Quinn Capture Audience’s Attention?

February 7th, 2020

It’s the first weekend of February and the only wide release is Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), the latest installment in the D.C.E.U. There is no question that it will earn first place over the weekend. There is some question about how well it will do during its opening weekend, as ticket pre-sales have been weaker than anticipated. This weekend last year, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part opened with $34.12 million. Birds of Prey will top that; however, it needs to come close to matching the combined openings of last year’s top two films, The Lego Movie 2 and What Men Want, in order to have a real shot at leading 2020 to a victory in the year-over-year competition. That doesn’t seem as likely as it did last week. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 6th, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Original Screenplay. We have yet another close race with two films that are practically a coin-toss away from being the winner. More...

International Box Office: Bad Boys Battle in Brazil

February 6th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life remained in first place on the international box office chart, again, this time earning 31.21 million on 13,180 screens in 81 markets for totals of $143.09 million internationally and $291.15 million worldwide. The film has now made more internationally than the first film in the franchise earned worldwide. The film’s biggest new release of the weekend came in Brazil where it earned first place with $1.71 million on 810 screens. The film’s biggest holdover was France where it was down just 39% to $2.75 million on 614 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.10 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Bad Boys Still Feeling Good, New Releases are Bad and Worse

February 4th, 2020

The Super Bowl turned out to be a good game, at least according to the score sheet. This perhaps hurt the box office over the weekend, as Bad Boys for Life fell a little faster than expected. That said, it still dominated the box office with a huge lead over the second place film, 1917. Meanwhile, the two new releases, Gretel and Hansel and The Rhythm Section, both bombed to varying degrees. The overall box office fell 33% from last weekend, hitting $81 million; however, an extreme decline like this is to be expected on Super Bowl weekend. More importantly, this is 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that helped 2020 extend its lead over 2019 to 8.9% / $77 million at $945 million to $868 million. A few more weeks like this and I’ll actually become optimistic about the year’s box office chances. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys Enjoy Life at the Top

February 2nd, 2020

Bad Boys for Life is extending its run at the top of the chart the weekend with Sony projecting a total of $17.675 million as of Sunday morning. That’s down 48% from last weekend, which is another solid hold, and takes the film to the brink of $150 million at the domestic box office—it’s expected to have around $148 million by close of business. The studio is baking in a big 71% drop today thanks to competition with the Super Bowl, so it may end up doing just a little better than predicted. More...

Friday Estimates: Bad Boys Beat Up Newcomers

February 1st, 2020

If Friday’s estimates are any indication, then the weekend will be a little weaker than anticipated. Bad Boys for Life will easy lead the way after pulling in $5.19 million on Friday. Sony is projecting $17 million based on this result, which is a little lower than our $19 million to $20 million prediction, but still a great hold for a mainstream action film on Super Bowl weekend. This won’t be enough to get the movie to $150 million by the end of the weekend and it likely ends the film’s chances at $200 million domestically. That said, it is still going to be the biggest hit in the franchise by the end of Saturday, so there’s still plenty of reasons to celebrate. More...

Weekend Predictions: The Box Office Looks far from Super

January 31st, 2020

It is Super Bowl weekend, which is one of the biggest media events of the year. Even people who have no interest in the NFL tend to at least pay attention to the game. Because of that, no studio wants to release a typical film this time of year and instead focus on counter-programming, usually female-led counter-programming. Neither The Rhythm Section nor Gretel and Hansel are expected to challenge Bad Boys for Life for first place, but the pair could be in a close race with each other. This weekend last year, no movie earned $10 million or more, while Miss Bala opened with less than $10 million. 2020 should end the month on a huge winning note. More...

Theater Averages: Feeling Bad

January 30th, 2020

No film cracked $10,000 on the theater average chart this week. Bad Boys for Life came the closest with an average of $9,010. More...

International Box Office: Bad Boys can’t Be Beat

January 30th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life remained in first place on the international box office chart with $44.04 million on 12,933 screens in 76 markets for totals of 96.5 million internationally and $217.33 million worldwide. This is already more than the first film in the franchise earned in total. However, before we get too excited, it did come out 25 years ago and not only does this film have 25 years of inflation behind it, it had huge growth in the international market to help it out as well. The film’s biggest new market was Russia, where it earned $5.02 million in 1,466 theaters, but it also had an impressive debut in France with $4.53 million on 619 screens. The film earned first place in both markets. As far as holdovers are concerned, the movie has already earned $10.82 million in the U.K., including $3.59 million in 559 theaters this past weekend. It is doing even better in Germany, if you take into account the relative size of the two markets, with $3.30 million on 669 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.55 million. On the downside, the film is rapidly running out of markets to open in, so it won’t remain in the top five for too much longer, but it has already earned enough to ensure a healthy profit in the end. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Bad Boys’ Box Office Boon Balances Mixed Opening Results

January 28th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life saved the box office this weekend earning $34.01 million, which was more than The Gentlemen and The Turning earned combined. Granted, the overall box office was still down 27% from last weekend, but it is a post-holiday weekend, so this decline was expected. More importantly, it was 23% higher than the same weekend last year and this helped 2020 continue its early winning streak. 2020 is now ahead of 2019’s early pace by 8.2% / $63 million at $828 million to $765 million. It is still way to early to make any projections for the end of the year, but any lead 2020 can build up now will help it during the slower stretches of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys are Doing Well

January 26th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life will remain in first place on the weekend chart with an estimated $34.0 million, which is down just 46% from the film’s opening weekend. This amazing hold not only beat predictions by a significant margin, it helped the film blow past $100 million yesterday. Its running tally will sit at $120.0 million at the end of the weekend, assuming the estimate holds. Internationally, the film held even better, earning $42 million on 12,700 screens in 58 markets for a total of $95 million so far. This includes a $4.7 million debut in Russia, as well as a $3.5 million hold in the U.K. The film is already ahead of the franchise average, both domestically and globally, while it is rapidly approaching first place in both. At this rate, not only will there be yet another sequel, I could see a spin-off happening as well. More...

Friday Estimates: Audiences Turn Away from New Releases

January 25th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life remained in first place earning $8.93 million on Friday, down 62% from its opening Friday. This is significantly better than anticipated and it means the film could fall less than 50% during the full weekend. Regardless, the film will reach $100 million domestically tonight, becoming the first film released in 2020 to get to that milestone. Obviously it won’t be the last. More...

Weekend Predictions: The Box Office will have a Gentle Weekend

January 23rd, 2020

It is a post-holiday weekend and the weekend before the Super Bowl. Needless to say, there are no prime releases coming out in theaters. The Gentlemen is the widest release of the week a should open in the top five, even if it doesn’t compete for top spot. The Turning is a low-budget horror movie, and we’ve already had one of those struggle at the box office this year. There’s little hope this one will be better. Finally, there’s The Last Full Measure, which is only opening nationwide, not even semi-wide. It’s not even going to make the top ten, so we will talk about that film with the other limited releases. This leaves Bad Boys for Life as the only real contender for first place this weekend. The question is more about how far it falls from last weekend. As for this weekend last year, we were in a similar situation with the two new releases, The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity, failing to make any real impact, leaving Glass in first place for the second weekend in a row. The Upside was the only other film to earn more than $10 million that weekend, while this weekend we will have four, perhaps even five films above $10 million. 2020 should walk away with an easy win. More...

Theater Averages: The Weather was Bright and Shiny on the Theater Average Chart

January 23rd, 2020

Bad Boys for Life easily won the race for top spot on the theater average chart. In fact, it was the only film in the $10,000 club with an average of $16,557. The best new limited release of the week was Weathering With You, which earned $5.28 million, although that was over six days. It managed an average of $3,716 in 486 theaters over the three-day weekend, which isn’t enough to expand, but it is enough to encourage more theater owners to book Anime in the future. More...

International Box Office: Bad Boys Bounces Star Wars Out of Top Spot

January 22nd, 2020

Bad Boys for Life took over top spot with $37.50 million on 8,945 screens in 54 international markets over the three-day weekend and $38.96 million including previews and non-standard days, as Sony puts it. The film’s biggest market was arguably Germany where it earned $4.71 million on 661 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.14 million. However, the film made more money over the three-day weekend in the U.K., $4.93 million in 535 theaters, to be more precise. The film earned strong openings in Australia with $3.97 million on 259 and in Mexico with $3.88 million on 2,242 screens. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Bad Boys Gives the Box Office Life

January 22nd, 2020

The first long weekend of the year was fantastic at the box office as Bad Boys for Life set a number of box office records, including MLK Long Weekend Opening Record, which is arguably the most prestigious of the records it set. Dolittle, on the other hand, managed to avoid embarrassing itself, which is about as good as it was going to get after its troubled production. Overall, the box office had amazing growth from last weekend, improving by 25% to $166 million. More importantly, this is 28% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2020 is ahead of 2019 by 10.5% or $63 million at $666 million to $602 million; however, every little bit helps. We don’t have an Endgame this year, so getting off to a fast start will be more important than usual. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys Blow Up Record Book

January 19th, 2020

The weekend estimates are a little more estimated than usual, because it is a long weekend, so studios are predicting Monday’s results the day before they happen, and there’s a larger margin of error than usual. That said, Bad Boys for Life is going to have no trouble topping the old MLK long weekend opening record, as it is projected to earn $59.2 million / $68.1 million over the weekend. Its three-day figure is almost $10 million more than the previous record holder, Ride Along, earned over three days. And yes, it has the opening weekend record. American Sniper was a December release that expanded wide on MLK weekend. On another positive note, the film’s reviews have risen to 76% positive, which is enough to earn a Certified Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, although the site appears to be slow on awarding that. Additionally, the film earned an A-rating from CinemaScore, so audiences liked the film even more than critics did. The audience was 39% African-Americans, compared to 33% Caucasian, while it was 61% male. No real surprises there. The film is earning $38.6 million on 8,200 screens in 39 markets during its international debut, including stellar openings in Germany ($5.1 million) and the U.K. ($5.0 million). More...

Friday Estimates: Bad Boys Sets January Opening Day Record with $23.5 million

January 18th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life earned $23.5 million on Friday, which is the biggest opening day in January, breaking the previous record of $17.16 million set by Cloverfield back in 2008. It is also way more than anticipated, and puts it on pace to crush the opening weekend record for MLK weekend, and all of the associated records. In fact, Sony is projecting a $66 million four-day debut as a result of this start. There are reasons to be bullish, including the film’s solid reviews and its A-rating from CinemaScore. The film is already the biggest hit released in 2020 and if this is a sign of things to come, then we are in for a good year. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Bad Boys do a Good Job at the Box Office?

January 16th, 2020

It’s the first long weekend of the year and we have two films that are hoping to take advantage of MLK Day to get off to a fast start at the box office. Bad Boys for Life does have the advantage in terms of reviews and hype, not to mention a much more reasonable production budget. Dolittle is an early contender for worst movie of 2020. It also cost $175 million to make, so if it doesn’t make at least $100 million domestically, then it is practically guaranteed to lose a ton of money for Universal. This weekend last year, Glass earned first place with $40 million over the three-day weekend. I’ve seen some predictions that have Bad Boys for Life earning less than that over the four-day weekend, but I’ve also seen some predictions that would top the $48-million MLK long weekend opening record. 2020 does have better depth, so the year’s short winning streak shouldn’t come to an end just yet. More...

Theater Averages: 1917 Keeps Racing to the Top

January 15th, 2020

It’s rare for a film to remain in the $10,000 club for three weeks in a row, especially when they expand. However, 1917 managed this rare feat at the weekend with an average of $10,775, despite now playing in well over 3,000 theaters. More...

International Box Office: Star Wars Keeps Competition Away from Top Spot

January 15th, 2020

As previously reported, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker entered the billion dollar club on Tuesday. Over the weekend, it earned $24.2 million in 55 markets for totals, as of the end of the weekend, of $511.4 million internationally and $989.6 million worldwide. It struggled in South Korea, earning second place with $2.16 million on 948 screens over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $3.09 million. I’ll talk about the film that beat it below. Rise of Skywalker did relatively better in the Philippines with an opening of $1.0 million over the weekend, and $3.0 million including previews. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Older Release Dominates the New Year

January 14th, 2020

It was a mixed weekend with the two wide expansions bettering predictions by small margins, but most of the rest of the top five failed to do so. Granted, no film truly bombed, but the little misses did add up causing the total box office to slip by 6.6% from last weekend hitting $132 million. Dips like this are expected at this time of year, as the big holiday releases are fading and January releases just are not expected to be able to compensate. On the positive side, this weekend was 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s helped 2020 get off to an early 6.3% / $24 million lead at $410 million to $386 million. This is not only a faster start than last year, it is actually faster than 2018, which set the record at the end of the year. I’m not saying 2020 will have the biggest total domestic box office; it is far too early to make a prediction like that. However, an early lead can help, as it sets a tone of winning. If the dominant story is a weak box office, then moviegoers could assume the movies coming out are not worth going to see and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 13th, 2020

The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year. More...

Weekend Estimates: 1917 Fires First Shots in 2020 Box Office Race

January 12th, 2020

1917 is matching projections based on Friday estimates perfectly with a weekend estimate of $36.5 million, which would push its total run to $39.2 million so far. This is a little above our prediction, and much higher than studio expectations. It has some of the best reviews in the top ten and a solid A-minus rating from CinemaScore, both of which should help its legs. Its legs will get even longer if it does well in the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Interestingly, the film isn’t skewing as old as I thought it would, as 47% of its audience was in the 18-through-34 age bracket, compared to just 18% at 55 and above. The film is earning $19.92 million from 30 international markets, although it is being released by multiple studios outside the domestic market, which makes tracking more difficult, as no one studio is giving a complete picture. Hopefully we will get enough smaller details to piece things together by Wednesday. More...

Friday Estimates: 1917 has Exemplary Start to Wide Expansion

January 11th, 2020

1917 earned $13.97 million during the first Friday of its wide expansion. Universal is projecting a $36.5 million weekend after this result, which is a little better than we predicted and better than most were expecting after its Thursday previews. Add in the film’s stellar reviews and its likely performance when the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, and the film should have very long legs. (It earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is actually lower than I was anticipating.) Universal didn’t have a great 2019 domestically, so an early $100 million hit would help its 2020 run get off to a better start. More...

Thursday Night Previews: 1917 Pulls in $3.5 million in Previews - Update

January 10th, 2020

1917 started its wide release with $3.5 million on Thursday during its previews. This is more than the film made during two weeks of limited release and it had a stellar run in limited release. Some are saying this is a weaker than anticipated start, but I’m not sure that’s the case. Dunkirk earned $5.5 million and if this film just manages the same legs it will open with $32 million, which isn’t that far below our prediction. Furthermore, Dunkirk was a summer release, which would help its previews. Another comparison is American Sniper, which was also a limited release that expanded in January. That film made $5.3 million during its previews on its way to a nearly $90 million wide expansion. If this film does the same, then it will earn nearly $60 million over the weekend. That’s not going to happen, as American Sniper was an anomaly in so many ways that you can’t assume any film will ever match its start, but it does show getting to $35 million after this start isn’t a stretch. This is especially true if mainstream audiences like the film as much as critics did. We won’t have solid evidence either way until the CinemaScore comes out, but I would be surprised if it is less than an A-rating. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can 1917 Race to First Place?

January 9th, 2020

It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Averages: 1917 Helps 2020 Start on a Strong Note

January 9th, 2020

There were three films in the $10,000 club, all of them holdovers. 1917 led the way with an average of $56,154 in 11 theaters, which is 7% higher than its opening weekend. I’m very excited for its wide expansion this weekend. On the other hand, Just Mercy fell to an average of $19,154 in four theaters. That’s still good, but perhaps not good enough to thrive in wide release. We finally got numbers for Ashfall as its distributor was closed over the Christmas break. The film earned an average of $16,198 in two theaters during its third weekend of release. More...

2020 - Awards Season: Golden Globes Winners

January 6th, 2020

The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and we have some interesting developments for the rest of Awards Season. 1917 wasn’t considered a front-runner with five films earning more nominations. However, after this result, it might be the front-runner to become the big winner on Oscar night. More...

Weekend Estimates: Skywalker Slips on Saturday, Still Scores First Place

January 5th, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker isn’t going to live up to projections based on Friday estimates, but it is still expected to land a little north of weekend predictions with an estimated weekend haul of $33.74 million for a three-week total of $450.80 million. A 53% decline at this time of year isn’t a great result and it is clear the film’s reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore are not doing it any favors. That said, it is still one of the biggest hits released in 2019, both domestically and worldwide. Internationally, the film is pulling in $50.5 million in 53 markets for totals of $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it debuts in South Korea and the Philippines this coming weekend and that should help it hit $1 billion worldwide. More...

Theater Averages: 1917 Helps 2019 End on a Strong Note

January 2nd, 2020

Only four limited release announced box office numbers for the final weekend of 2019, but all four were in the $10,000 club. 1917 led the way with an average of $52,383 in 11 theaters. That was over the three-day weekend. It earned over $1 million during its five-day debut. Just Mercy was well back with an estimated average of $27,250 in four theaters over the three-day weekend. Ip Man: The Finale will probably turn out to be poorly named, because the movie earned over $1 million over the three-day weekend and earned an average of $20,850. I’m sure someone is trying to figure out how to continue the franchise, despite the Finale part of the name. Clemency was next with an average of $17,682 in two theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which earned an average of $16,430 during its second weekend of release. More...

2020 Preview: January

January 1st, 2020

It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there. More...

Christmas Releases: Little Women hopes to have a Large Opening Day

December 24th, 2019

It’s a Tuesday Christmas Eve, and that makes for a challenging situation for box office prognosticators, with Wednesday releases adding to the difficulties. Because of that, I am going to combine the weekend predictions and the limited releases into one shorter column. I will talk about all new releases / expansions for this week without going into detail over their box office chances. Look for a more comprehensive prediction column Thursday as usual. The biggest of the Christmas Day releases should be Little Women; however, that film is making big push for awards, and will likely have very long legs as a result. Conversely, Spies in Disguise is a rare family film opening on Christmas, which makes it a real wild card. More...

1917 Final Trailer

December 19th, 2019

Historical thriller starring Dean-Charles Chapman and George MacKay, directed by Sam Mendes opens December 25, and expands wide January 10 ... Full Movie Details.

At the height of the First World War, two young British soldiers, Schofield and Blake are given a seemingly impossible mission. In a race against time, they must cross enemy territory and deliver a message that will stop a deadly attack on hundreds of soldiers—Blake’s own brother among them. More...

2020 Awards Season: Golden Globes Nominations

December 11th, 2019

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods. More...

1917 Trailer

August 1st, 2019

World War I drama, written and directed by Sam Mendes opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details. More...