This graph shows Willem Dafoe’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It was another weekend of box office glory for Deadpool & Wolverine, as the film once again claimed the top spot on the domestic charts by earning $15.5 million, taking its 38-day North American total to $599.8 million, and has since crossed the $600 million threshold, currently enjoying a domestic total of $606 million. This weekend, two new wide releases make their way into North American cinemas, with one poised to knock the dynamic duo from their perch once and for all.
While Deadpool & Wolverine has been in the spotlight for the majority of its run, it is time to shine some light, and box office, on this weekend’s most anticipated release, Beetlejuice-Beetlejuice. The long-awaited sequel to Beetlejuice debuts in 4,575 theaters this weekend, tying Toy Story 4 as the seventh-widest release of all time. 36 years after the original film, the dark fantasy-comedy brings back Michael Keaton as the titular character while featuring an array of Hollywood talent, including Winona Ryder, Catherine O’Hara, and Willem Dafoe among others.
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It should be a fun-filled weekend for moviegoers as not only are there plenty of indie films hitting theaters but we also see three new wide releases arrive on North American soil, joining last week’s box office leaders Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. After amassing over $200 million in its first two weeks, the former drops two spots on the theater count chart this week, showing in 3,809 theaters, while the latter adds cinemas, coming in at 4,245 locations and becoming this week’s widest release.
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It is actually a busy week for limited and virtual releases with a handful of higher profile films hitting theaters. This includes Shirley, which has enough appeal that it could have expanded wide, and earned some level of mainstream success under normal circumstances. Tommaso has more limited appeal, but it could have been a hit on the art house circuit. As theaters open up around the country, this weekend is going to be the biggest test yet of how the theatrical market might grow in the next few months.
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The home market returns to normal after two of the worst weeks I’ve ever seen. Keep in mind, I said normal, not good. There’s only one big release of the week, Joker, and not much else that is selling well enough to make the main list. In fact, not everything in the main list is selling well enough to get there on just an average week. The contenders for Pick of the Week include Brick, The Lighthouse, and Zombie Land Saga: Season One. It was a really close call and it came down to the roll of the dice, with Zombie Land Saga winning out.
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There are not a lot of films on this week’s list that are earning both great reviews and loud buzz. The Lighthouse is one of the best, both in terms of buzz and in terms of reviews, but Jojo Rabbit is the one I want to see the most.
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This week’s limited releases are divided into two groups: films earning reviews that are not good enough for limited release and documentaries earning perfect or near perfect reviews. All is True is the biggest of the first group, while The Silence of Others is the most potent of the second group.
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like the Best Supporting Actor category, there is a favorite here, but an upset wouldn’t be that shocking.
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It’s a shallow week on the home market. That said, Bohemian Rhapsody was a monster hit, especially internationally. It isn’t a Pick of the Week contender, but we do have a trio of contenders: At Eternity’s Gate, Audition, and Shoplifters. It’s a close race, but Shoplifters came out on top.
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The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each.
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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A journey inside the world and mind of a person who, despite skepticism, ridicule and illness, created some of the world’s most beloved and stunning works of art.
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This week is filled with films that are earning reviews that are good, but likely not quite good enough to thrive in limited release. There are a few exceptions, mostly documentaries. This leaves Green Book as the only film that has a real shot at mainstream success. In fact, given its reviews, it could earn some Awards Season success.
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It is a busier week than average with quite a few limited releases that are earning great reviews, some of which are also earning loud buzz. Revenge is one such film and it is playing on Video on Demand, so you don’t have to go to a theater to see it.
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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Voting is now closed in our 21st Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition, and we’re ready to announce the predicted winners in each category.
We have overwhelming favorites in virtually all of the major categories this year, with one glaring exception: Best Picture. That race is a virtual tie between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. Three Billboards has a very slight edge, with 44% of the vote, while Shape of Water has 43%. Get Out is a long shot, at 6%, and Dunkirk and Lady Bird are the only other films to get a look in, with about 3% each.
With the top two films both getting less than 50% of the votes, it’s fair to say there isn’t a favorite in this race, and any of these five films seems like a conceivable winner. The winner of our contest will likely be someone who makes the right call in this category.
Things are much more clear cut in other categories…
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. In this category, as with every acting category, there is an overwhelming favorite.
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The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out.
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point.
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It is a very busy week for limited releases with over 30 films coming out this week. Needless to say we’ve had to be a little callous, culling the list to a more manageable number. We are still left with a number of films that have a shot at finding a receptive audience. Some of these are like Better Watch Out, which will struggle in theaters, but very likely do well on Video on Demand. Others, like The Florida Project, could see its strong reviews turn to Awards Season success and that will be a boon to its financial success.
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January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
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John Wick stars Keanu Reeves in the titular role. Keanu Reeves has earned close to $2 billion domestically, but it has been more than a decade since he starred in a film that earned more than $100 million at the box office. This film couldn't even get halfway to the century mark. Did it deserve to become a hit? Or was it destined to fall between the cracks?
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A Most Wanted Man is famous for a really negative reason. It is one of the last films starring Philip Seymour Hoffman released after his untimely death. It earned incredible reviews and did really well at the box office for a limited release, but it wasn't able to break into truly wide releases. Is the movie as good as its reviews? Or were critics quick to praise the film for its significance in Philip Seymour Hoffman's life?
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September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.
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It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
Out of the Furnace came out the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is a dead zone at the box office. Despite being in the heart of the winter holidays (Thanksgiving through New Year's Day) the weekend after Thanksgiving is often times among the worst weekend of the year for wide releases. That was certainly the case in 2013 and Out of the Furnace was part of the problem. Is it as bad as its box office numbers would indicate? Or did it fail to find an audience in part because of the release date?
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We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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eXistenZ is a Canadian movie that cost more than $30 million Canadian dollars to make, but made less than $3 million at the domestic box office. There's never been a time when the exchange rate was great enough to cover that difference. Is it a bad movie? Is that why it failed to find an audience? Or is it, like so many David Cronenberg movies, just too weird for a mainstream audience?
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Finding Nemo came out nearly a decade ago and earned nearly perfect reviews. This fall, it became the latest Pixar film to earn a 3D re-release. Is it as good as most critics said it was? And does the 3D add anything to the film?
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