Home Market Releases for December 11th, 2018

December 11th, 2018

There isn’t a huge number of releases on this week’s list home market release report. The Equalizer 2 is the biggest, but it is far from the best. As for the best, there are some Pick of the Week contenders, including Colette, My Neighbor Totoro and A Simple Favor. My Neighbor Totoro is worth owning, but it is a triple-dip at this point, maybe more. A Simple Favor is coming out on VOD this week. This leaves Colette’s DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for December 4th, 2018

December 4th, 2018

It’s not a bad week when it comes to the home market. The biggest release is Mission: Impossible—Fallout and while I didn’t like it as much as most critics, the Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD Combo Packs are still worth picking up. There were also a trio of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, all of which were TV on DVD release: The Handmaid’s Tale: Season Two, Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Take On Me, and Westworld: Season Two: The Door. In the end, it came down to a roll of the dice, with The Handmaid’s Tale coming out on top. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Grinch Grabs $2.2 million on Thursday Night

November 9th, 2018

Dr Seuss’ The Grinch started its box office run with previews in 3,200 theaters earning $2.2 million. By comparison, Smallfoot, the most recent computer animated film, earned $850,000 during its previews. If The Grinch has the same legs, then it would make $60 million during its opening weekend, which is a little lower than our prediction, but still a great start for a film that cost $75 million to make. On the other hand, this film’s reviews are not as good as Smallfoot’s reviews are, which could lead to weaker word-of-mouth. Additionally, it is based on a well-known book, so that could front-load the film’s box office numbers. Hopefully this won’t be an issue and the film will top $60 million with ease. We will know more by this time tomorrow when the Friday Estimates show up. More...

International Box Office: Halloween Rises from the Dead and into First Place

October 31st, 2018

Halloween rose from fifth to first with $26.0 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $46.0 million. The film’s biggest new market was Germany, where it earned first place with $3.41 million on 513 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fifth place in France with $2.37 million on 316 screens. Its Australian debut was in-between those two results at second place and $1.99 million on 264 screens. It’s best holdover was in Mexico, where it earned first place with $2.34 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.39 million. Like I mentioned last week, this film isn’t doing as well internationally as it is domestically, but it has done so well domestically that it will break even before taking its international numbers into consideration. More...

International Box Office: Venom Claws Closer to Half a Billion Dollars

October 25th, 2018

Venom earned its fourth first place finish on the international chart with $33.17 million on 14,966 screens in 83 markets for totals of $291.61 million internationally and $462.68 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it has yet to open in Japan and China, so it has a shot at $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide, which would be more than enough to become Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018. More...

International Box Office: Venom Secures Win, Closes in on Summer Vacation

October 17th, 2018

Venom remained the top draw internationally earning $70.89 million on 20,248 screens in 83 markets for totals of $236.49 million internationally and $378.60 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was France, where it opened in first place with $6.65 million on 703 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.04 million. It also opened in first place in Thailand with $2.14 million on 365 screens and in Vietnam with $1.05 million on 501 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.22 million. Its biggest market overall is South Korea, where it has amassed $25.41 million, including $4.38 million on 1,011 screens this past weekend. At this pace, the film will soon overtake Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, becoming Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Venom Beats Up Expectations, and New Releases

October 16th, 2018

Last weekend, Venom and A Star is Born opened better than predicted by a large margin and they even held on better than expected this weekend. Unfortunately, none of the new releases matched predictions and that hurt the overall box office. The total box office was down 25% from last weekend at $136 million. More importantly, this is 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is ahead of 2017 at $9.18 billion to $8.31 billion, which is a $880 million or 10.5% lead. A double-digit lead at this point of the year is stunning and while it very likely won’t last, it would take an complete collapse for the lead to evaporate by the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Venom Flexes it Muscles and Keeps the Competition Down

October 14th, 2018

Last weekend, the new releases topped expectations by a significant degree. It appears I got caught up in that enthusiasm, because the three wide releases this weekend all missed expectations. Fortunately, the holdovers helped compensate. Venom is projected to fall just 56% to $35.6 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $142.6 million. This is a stunningly strong hold, given its reviews, its B plus from CinemaScore, and historical averages for comic book films. Internationally, it pulled in $69.7 million and globally it already has $378.1 million. The film cost $100 million or $116 million, depending on how you look at things. It’s $116 million on the screen, but it cost Sony $100 million after tax breaks. Depending on how much the film cost to advertise and how much Sony’s share of the box office is, the film might have already broken even. It will certainly break even by this time next week. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases Won’t Finish First, Man

October 13th, 2018

All of the new releases missed expectations on Friday. This combined with better than expected holds for the holdovers meant there won’t be any new challengers for first place. That said, there will be a relatively close race for first place between Venom and A Star is Born. Venom fell 70% compared to its opening Friday earning $9.79 million. This is enough to put it on pace for $32 million during its sophomore stint, which is on the very high end of expectations. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will First Man Live Up to Its Name?

October 11th, 2018

There are three wide releases coming out this week. First Man is the biggest release and has the best reviews with 90% positive reviews. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween’s reviews are much, much worse, but it should still do relatively well at the box office. It is a horror movie for kids opening just before Halloween. The final wide release of the week is Bad Times at the El Royale, which is earning really good reviews, but the buzz is rather quiet. These films will have to compete with Venom and A Star is Born, both of which are expected to do big business during their second weekend of release. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day opened with $26.04 million; however, it was the only film that earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, we could have as many as four films earn more than $20 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Venom Invades Record Books with $80.26 million

October 9th, 2018

Venom topped the high end of expectations over the weekend with $80.26 million, breaking several October records. A Star is Born also topped expectations with $44.26 million during its opening weekend and should have very long legs. Overall, the box office pulled in $177 million, which is 68% more than last weekend and this weekend last year. That’s a strange coincidence. Year-to-date, 2018 was able to stretch its lead over 2017, which now sits at 9.9% or $810 billion at $8.98 billion to $8.16 billion. I was worried we might be down to a $500 million lead at this point, but 2018 continues to impress. More...

Weekend Estimates: Venom Punches its Way to the Top with $80 million

October 7th, 2018

If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit. More...

Friday Estimates: Venom Shines on Opening Day

October 6th, 2018

Despite earning terrible reviews, Venom was able to destroy the record for biggest October day with $32.75 million on Friday, topping the previous record holder Paranormal Activity 3 by a significant margin. Not only will the film blow past $70 million over the weekend, it could come close to $80 million. On the down side, as previously mentioned, its reviews are terrible, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so it won’t have good legs going forward. That said, the film reportedly cost $100 million to make ($116 million on the screen, $100 million after tax breaks) so even tragically short legs won’t stop the film from breaking even. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Venom Take Down October’s Record?

October 4th, 2018

The first weekend of October could see records fall, as most have Venom opening with between $60 million and $70 million. The movie with the line “Turd in the wind” in its trailer is expected to open better than Gravity did. On the other hand, A Star is Born is expected to open in second place, but have much, much longer legs and I believe it will be the bigger hit in the end. Both Night School and Smallfoot will earn more than $10 million over the weekend, which will help the overall box office performance. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million, while only one other film earned more than $10 million. Even on the low end, Venom will earn more than those two films combined. On the high end, it could match last year’s top five by itself. More...

International Box Office: Can None stop The Nun?

October 2nd, 2018

For the fourth weekend in a row, The Nun earned first place on the international chart. This past weekend, the film earned $16.4 million on 9,490 screens in 80 markets for totals of $220.2 million internationally and $329.2 million worldwide. There were no new markets this weekend, which explains the sharp decline from last week’s haul. That said, it remained in first place in France with $2.4 million on 367 screens for a two-week total of $7.6 million. The film is now the biggest hit in the franchise, both internationally and worldwide. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wishing September Good Night

October 2nd, 2018

Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Night School earns a Passing Grade with $28 million

September 30th, 2018

The weekend box office lived up to expectations, for the most part. Night School is projected to earn $28 million over the weekend, which almost matches its $29 million production budget. It would take tiny legs to fail to cover its production budget, which is unlikely. Granted, its reviews are only 31% positive, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so its target audience liked it a whole lot more than the critics did. Its international start wasn’t great at $5.5 million in 19 markets, but within expectations. It earned second place in the U.K. with $2.02 million in 452 theaters, as well as third place in Australia with $1.20 million on 198. More...

Estimates: Friday’s Numbers are a little on the Small(foot) Size

September 29th, 2018

New releases did well during previews, but returned to the levels we were predicting on Friday. Night School earned $9.5 million during its opening day, which isn’t enough to get to $30 million over the weekend, but it could be enough to match our $27 million prediction, or at least come within a rounding error of that figure. Audiences liked the movie more than critics did, as it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Meanwhile, the film reportedly cost $29 million to make, so Universal should be happy with this result. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Night School gets off to an Intelligent Start

September 28th, 2018

Night School earned $1.35 million during its previews last night. In order to match our $27 million prediction, the film needed about $1.2 million during its previews, so this start makes opening above $30 million a lot more likely. Granted, its reviews are not going to help, but the film still has an excellent shot at topping its production budget during its opening weekend. It would take a combination of tragic legs, zero international demand, and irresponsibly high advertising costs for this film to not break even after this start. More...

Weekend Prediction: Smallfoot Looking for Big Box Office

September 26th, 2018

The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2018 Preview: September

September 1st, 2018

Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month. More...

Smallfoot Trailer

November 28th, 2017

Animated adventure with the voices of Channing Tatum, James Corden, Zendaya, and Common, opens September 28, 2018 ... Full Movie Details. More...