Weekend Wrap-Up: Wishing September Good Night
October 2, 2018
Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion.
Night School opened with $27.26 million, which matched our prediction nearly perfectly and was within $2 million of its production budget. It did have the weakest reviews of the three wide releases, but its CinemaScore was a solid A minus, so it should have relatively good legs. Since the film cost less than $30 million to make, the film won’t need to be a hit internationally to break even early in its home market run. If it is a hit internationally, then it could break even before it even reaches the home market.
Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. It had the best reviews of the weekend and it too earned an A minus from CinemaScore. However, it cost $80 million to make, so it will need long legs domestically and find an audience internationally, if the film is to break even any time soon. Family films do tend to have long legs, so that should help in that regard. It is too soon to tell how well it will do internationally, but I’m not bullish about its chances.
The House with a Clock in its Walls fell faster than expected down 53% to $12.61 million for a two-week total of $44.61 million. A 53% decline is really high for a family film, but the movie only cost $42 million to make, so even with this decline, its financial future seems safe.
A Simple Favor added $6.54 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $43.01 million. The film is on pace to get to $60 million, or at the very least come close. This is very likely more than it cost to make and advertise, meaning it just needs to be a mediocre draw internationally to break even during its initial push into the home market.
The Nun remained in the top five one last weekend with $5.43 million for a four-week total of $109.01 million. It’s just a matter of time before a direct sequel to this film is added to the growing Conjuring franchise.
Hell Fest just missed the top five with $5.13 million. On the positive side, this is nearly as much as it cost to make. Its reviews are nearly 50% positive, but it only managed a C from CinemaScore. That’s weak, even for a horror movie, so I don’t have high hopes for its legs.
The sophomore class was busy this week, but all of the ones here bombed. Fahrenheit 11/9 held on the best, but it still fell 63% to $1.11 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $5.18 million. Life Itself fell 69% to just $659,000 for a two-week total of $3.64 million. Assassination Nation was even worse plummeting 80% to just $206,000 over the weekend for a two-week total of $1.73 million. Maybe it will become a cult hit on the home market.
- Night School Comparisons
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- Smallfoot Comparisons
- Hell Fest Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Smallfoot, The Nun, Night School, Fahrenheit 11/9, Hell Fest, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Life Itself, A Simple Favor, Assassination Nation, The Conjuring