Home Market Releases for January 1st, 2019

January 1st, 2019

New Year’s Day lands on a Tuesday and I don’t think there are many people who celebrate the new year by buying a Blu-ray. That said, while there’s not a lot of releases on this week’s list, a surprising percentage of them are first-run releases. Love, Gilda is the only real contender for Pick of the Week. Bad Times at the El Royale is the second best, but I want to be able to watch the full thing for my review before coming up with a final judgment. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Night School

December 29th, 2018

Night School struggled with critics, but did quite well with over $100 million worldwide. Were critics right? Or was there a reason audiences seemed to connect to the film? More...

Home Market Releases for December 11th, 2018

December 11th, 2018

There isn’t a huge number of releases on this week’s list home market release report. The Equalizer 2 is the biggest, but it is far from the best. As for the best, there are some Pick of the Week contenders, including Colette, My Neighbor Totoro and A Simple Favor. My Neighbor Totoro is worth owning, but it is a triple-dip at this point, maybe more. A Simple Favor is coming out on VOD this week. This leaves Colette’s DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases Won’t Finish First, Man

October 13th, 2018

All of the new releases missed expectations on Friday. This combined with better than expected holds for the holdovers meant there won’t be any new challengers for first place. That said, there will be a relatively close race for first place between Venom and A Star is Born. Venom fell 70% compared to its opening Friday earning $9.79 million. This is enough to put it on pace for $32 million during its sophomore stint, which is on the very high end of expectations. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Venom Invades Record Books with $80.26 million

October 9th, 2018

Venom topped the high end of expectations over the weekend with $80.26 million, breaking several October records. A Star is Born also topped expectations with $44.26 million during its opening weekend and should have very long legs. Overall, the box office pulled in $177 million, which is 68% more than last weekend and this weekend last year. That’s a strange coincidence. Year-to-date, 2018 was able to stretch its lead over 2017, which now sits at 9.9% or $810 billion at $8.98 billion to $8.16 billion. I was worried we might be down to a $500 million lead at this point, but 2018 continues to impress. More...

Weekend Estimates: Venom Punches its Way to the Top with $80 million

October 7th, 2018

If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit. More...

Friday Estimates: Venom Shines on Opening Day

October 6th, 2018

Despite earning terrible reviews, Venom was able to destroy the record for biggest October day with $32.75 million on Friday, topping the previous record holder Paranormal Activity 3 by a significant margin. Not only will the film blow past $70 million over the weekend, it could come close to $80 million. On the down side, as previously mentioned, its reviews are terrible, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so it won’t have good legs going forward. That said, the film reportedly cost $100 million to make ($116 million on the screen, $100 million after tax breaks) so even tragically short legs won’t stop the film from breaking even. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Venom Take Down October’s Record?

October 4th, 2018

The first weekend of October could see records fall, as most have Venom opening with between $60 million and $70 million. The movie with the line “Turd in the wind” in its trailer is expected to open better than Gravity did. On the other hand, A Star is Born is expected to open in second place, but have much, much longer legs and I believe it will be the bigger hit in the end. Both Night School and Smallfoot will earn more than $10 million over the weekend, which will help the overall box office performance. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million, while only one other film earned more than $10 million. Even on the low end, Venom will earn more than those two films combined. On the high end, it could match last year’s top five by itself. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wishing September Good Night

October 2nd, 2018

Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Night School earns a Passing Grade with $28 million

September 30th, 2018

The weekend box office lived up to expectations, for the most part. Night School is projected to earn $28 million over the weekend, which almost matches its $29 million production budget. It would take tiny legs to fail to cover its production budget, which is unlikely. Granted, its reviews are only 31% positive, but it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so its target audience liked it a whole lot more than the critics did. Its international start wasn’t great at $5.5 million in 19 markets, but within expectations. It earned second place in the U.K. with $2.02 million in 452 theaters, as well as third place in Australia with $1.20 million on 198. More...

Estimates: Friday’s Numbers are a little on the Small(foot) Size

September 29th, 2018

New releases did well during previews, but returned to the levels we were predicting on Friday. Night School earned $9.5 million during its opening day, which isn’t enough to get to $30 million over the weekend, but it could be enough to match our $27 million prediction, or at least come within a rounding error of that figure. Audiences liked the movie more than critics did, as it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Meanwhile, the film reportedly cost $29 million to make, so Universal should be happy with this result. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Night School gets off to an Intelligent Start

September 28th, 2018

Night School earned $1.35 million during its previews last night. In order to match our $27 million prediction, the film needed about $1.2 million during its previews, so this start makes opening above $30 million a lot more likely. Granted, its reviews are not going to help, but the film still has an excellent shot at topping its production budget during its opening weekend. It would take a combination of tragic legs, zero international demand, and irresponsibly high advertising costs for this film to not break even after this start. More...

Weekend Prediction: Smallfoot Looking for Big Box Office

September 26th, 2018

The final weekend of September is home to three wide releases. Two of these, Night School and Smallfoot could be solid hits. And since they are aimed at vastly different audiences, they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office. On the other hand, Hell Fest is a low-budget horror movie that should earn more during its opening weekend than its $5.5 million production budget. Meanwhile, last week’s number one film, The House with a Clock in its Walls, should still have a solid weekend haul, giving the box office reasonable depth. This weekend last year, no film earned more than $20 million, while this year we should have two above that mark. Last year did have better depth, but I think 2018 will end its mini-losing streak in the year-over-year comparison. More...

2018 Preview: September

September 1st, 2018

Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month. More...

Night School Trailer

June 2nd, 2018

Comedy starring Kevin Hart, Tiffany Haddish opens September 28 ... Full Movie Details. More...