December 14th, 2015
It is a strange week on the home market, as there are four first-run releases coming out, all of which were sequels. That's a lot. However, only one of them wasn't a box office disappointment, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation. Additionally, there's very little depth here. On the plus side, it did give me an excuse to talk about some good releases that might otherwise have fallen between the cracks, like the Top Spin DVD. That said, the Rogue Nation Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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November 10th, 2015
As expected, Spectre remained in first pulling in $117.8 million in 73 markets for totals of $223.1 million internationally and $293.1 million worldwide. This is almost as much as it cost to make, so if it can double this figure, it should be able to break even eventually. The film's biggest market was the U.K. where it added $19.99 million on 696 screens over the weekend for a total of $98.82 million. It has already overtaken Jurassic World for the biggest hit of the year in the U.K. and should have no trouble rocketing into the top five on the all-time chart there. The film's biggest opening was in Germany, where it pulled in $18.06 million on 1,460 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $20.26 million. This is about 15% lower than Skyfall's opening in that market. Likewise, the film wasn't as strong during its debut in Russia earning $6.29 million on 2,112 screens, compared to $8.27 million on 1,254 screens for Skyfall. At this pace, Spectre will definitely fail to match Skyfall, but anything close to $800 million will be enough to break even, perhaps before it reaches the home market. It all depends on how much its global advertising campaign cost.
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October 22nd, 2015
Ant-Man made a triumphant return to the international chart with a first place, $43.5 million run in 3 markets for totals of $275.9 million internationally and $454.7 million worldwide. Nearly all of this weekend haul came from China, where the film opened in first place with $42.77 million. (Some are reporting it came in second place to Goodbye Mr. Loser, but they are comparing the film's weekly total to Ant-Man's opening weekend.) Depending on how much money the film cost to advertise worldwide, it might have broken even already. If not, it will get there very early in its home market run.
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October 14th, 2015
The Martian remained in first place with $58.1 million in 75 markets for totals of $119.0 million internationally and $227.7 million worldwide. $200 million worldwide was the minimum needed for the studio to save face. If it can get to $300 million worldwide, then we start talking about profitability. I don't see a way it won't get to $300 million, perhaps as early as this time next week, while $500 million worldwide is a reasonable goal to aim for. Its biggest new market of the weekend was South Korea where it earned first place with $11.09 million on 1,132 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.00 million. It also dominated the chart in Russia with $8.18 million on 2,246 screens. On the other hand, it only managed second place in Germany with $3.85 million on 676 screens. As far as holdovers go, the film remained in first place in the U.K. with $5.96 million in 582 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $20.44 million. This is about on par with its run here, which bodes well for its worldwide total.
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October 8th, 2015
The Martian opened in first place with $45.2 million on 9,299 screens in 50 markets. This includes a first place, 10.01 million opening on 582 theaters in the U.K. This was the biggest opening for both the director and the star. The film had a similarly strong opening in Australia earning first place with $4.28 million on 582 screens. It also earned first place in Hong Kong ($2.26 million on 70 screens) and Taiwan ($1.68 million on 137 screens). It only managed second place in Italy with $2.53 million on 464 screens and in Mexico with $2.9 million on 1,757, while it debuted in third place in Brazil with $1.82 million on 507. Overall, the film it doing about as well internationally as it did here, which is good news for Fox.
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October 6th, 2015
It was an interesting weekend as The Martian was in a tight race with Gravity for Biggest October Weekend. It didn't quite set the record, but it came close enough to be the big story all weekend. Hotel Transylvania 2 held on better than expected, which helped the overall box office grow 8.3% from last week to $149 million. More importantly, the top two films this year were well ahead of the top two films last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle. This helped the overall box office grow 1.8% from the same weekend last year. Most people were not expecting that. Year-to-date, 2015 now has a 6.0% lead over 2014 at $8.14 billion to $7.68 billion. It would take a relatively serious collapse for 2015 to not come out on top at the end of the year.
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October 2nd, 2015
The Martian is the only true wide release this week, but it might not be the only new release in the top ten. The Sci-fi adventure film is earning award-worthy reviews and is also being praised for being an inspiring portrayal of science on the big screen. Sicario is expanding its theater count to 2,500, which should push it into the top five. The Walk opened in IMAX screens on Wednesday, but it missed the top ten place and it will likely fall. This weekend last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle both opened with between $37 million and $38 million. The Martian will open with more than either of those films opened with. However, it won't open with more than both of them combined. We will need good growth from Sicario and solid legs from Hotel Transylvania 2 to match last year's result.
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October 1st, 2015
Lost in Hong Kong opened in first place in China and internationally with $106.80 million. This is better than Monster Hunt opened with, so if it has the same legs, the box office record in China will fall for the third time this year. Speaking of records, the overall Chinese box office rose to $5 billion with three months left in the year. This is amazing.
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September 28th, 2015
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Hotel Transylvania 2 was surprisingly strong this past weekend, topping expectations and entering the record book. It wasn't the only new release of the week. The Intern matched expectations nearly perfectly. On the other hand, Everest struggled and The Green Inferno barely made a peep. The overall box office pulled in $138 million, which is 22% higher than last weekend and 29% higher than the same weekend last year. 2015's lead over 2014 has grown to $470 million or 6.3%. This year we have a running tally of $7.96 billion compared to $7.49 billion from last year. There's just three months left in the year, so 2015's lead looks safer and safer every passing weekend.
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September 25th, 2015
There are two wide releases this week, a wide expansion, and a semi-wide release. That's a lot of films to talk about. Of the three new films, none of them are earning more than 50% positive reviews. This is sadly typical of this time of year. Hotel Transylvania 2 is easily the biggest new release of the week and the only film with a shot at $40 million. The second wide release, The Intern, and the wide expansion, Everest, should be in a tight race for second place with $20 million each. On the other hand, The Green Inferno, the semi-wide release, is staring down the barrel of the Mendoza Line. If you look at the top three films from last year and compare them to the top three films from this year, they look about the same. The Equalizer's opening is on low the end of Hotel Transylvania 2's range of expectations. Additionally, the depth this year looks better than last year. 2015 should end the month on a high note in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 23rd, 2015
The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials rose to first place with $43.3 million in 67 markets over the weekend for a total of $78.0 million internationally and $108.3 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening came from South Korea, but it only managed second place there with $5.66 million on 804 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.20 million. On the other hand, the film dominated the Russian box office with $4.19 million on 2,328 screens. The original movie opened stronger in Russia, but The Scorch Trials performed better in its opening in South Korea. Given these results, it is still too soon to tell how well this film will do compared to its predecessor. That said, it already has more worldwide than it cost to make. In fact, it almost has enough worldwide to pay for its entire production budget. Its advertising budget would have to be much larger than expected for it to not break even sooner rather than later.
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September 22nd, 2015
The winners of our Lovely Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials opening weekend were...
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September 22nd, 2015
While the two new releases landed in first and second as expected, their box office numbers were not as strong. The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials failed to match The Maze Runner, which is not a good sign for the franchise going forward. Black Mass did well, for a September release. Meanwhile, Everest might be considered the best new release of in the top ten, which is not surprising as it is being released by Universal. Finally there's Captive, the latest victim of the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office was still strong and rose 10.0% from last week to $112 million. It was also 9.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 saw its lead expand to 5.8% over 2014 at $7.78 billion to $7.36 billion.
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September 20th, 2015
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials will win the weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with a very solid $30.3 million. That’s down a bit from The Maze Runner’s $32.5 million this weekend last year, but the difference is small enough that a good performance on Sunday and slight increases in the actuals for Friday and Saturday could actually push the sequel slightly ahead. Either way, the franchise seems on fairly solid ground, although the increase in budget for the second film to $61 million from $34 million the first time around suggests it won’t be as profitable. As always, international box office will be key, and early signs there are good, with $78 million already in the bank.
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September 19th, 2015
The Fall Season starts in earnest this weekend with the release of a Young Adult, dystopian-future action movie and an Older Adult dramatic thriller (not to mention a couple of pieces of counter-programming) vying for box office dollars, and, in one case, Oscar attention. Both films are getting off to good starts, based on Friday’s estimates. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials is off to the best start with $11 million for the day and a projected weekend around $30 million. Black Mass will have to settle for second place with $8.8 million on Friday and around $25 million for the weekend.
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September 18th, 2015
It's a sort of busy week this week, with two wide releases, The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Black Mass, as well as two limited releases with a shot at reaching the top ten, Captive and Everest. The Scorch Trials is the latest Young Adult Adaptation franchise. The first film crossed $100 million domestically, so this one hopes to grow at the box office. Black Mass is early Oscar-bait, but the reviews suggest it won't quite get there. Captive is the latest faith-based film and it likely won't go anywhere. Everest gets an early IMAX opening before its wide release next week. This weekend last year was the weekend The Maze Runner opened. Since sequels tend to open faster than their predecessors, 2015 should come out on top in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 17th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation rocketed up the chart into first place with $91.3 million in 63 markets over the weekend... sort of. This includes $86.42 million during the film's six-day opening in China. Its three-day weekend number is a lot smaller than that, but still enough for first place. Overall, the film now has $424.8 million internationally and $612.9 million worldwide. It became only the second film in the franchise to reach the $600 million mark worldwide. This is more than enough to break even, so it should come as no surprise that there's another installment in the works.
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September 17th, 2015
The winners of our The Perfect Prize contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Perfect Guy opening weekend were...
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September 11th, 2015
There are three wide releases coming out next week, but everyone expects The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials to dominate the box office. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Love and Mercy on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second copy of Love and Mercy on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final copy of Love and Mercy on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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September 1st, 2015
As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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