March 2nd, 2014
The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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January 28th, 2014
There are a large number of first run releases coming out this week on the home market, five in total. This is a huge amount. This week, the latest season of Downton Abby also comes out on the home market, and it is the best selling new release of the week, at least according to Amazon.com. So at the top, it is a really busy week. On the other hand, there's very little depth. Beyond those six releases, there's not a lot to talk about. Out of all of the movies on this week's list, Rush is the best movie, but the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack are only good and not great. On the other hand, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 on Blu-ray or 3D Blu-ray is the best total package. Meanwhile, I finally got a chance to review Carrie (the screener arrived late) and it was better than I thought it would be and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is worth picking up, especially if you haven't seen the original movie.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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December 10th, 2013
As expected, the box office was really soft this weekend with Frozen rising to the top with over $30 million. It was the only film that earned more than that amount, while The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was the only other film with significantly more than $5 million. Out of the Furnace was the only new release and while it barely topped $5 million, it still managed third place. The overall box office fell from 56% to just $92 million. As bad as that result is, it is still 15% higher than the same weekend last year. 2013 remains above 2012, albeit by a tiny margin of 0.3% at $9.75 billion to $9.72 billion. It wouldn't take much for 2013 to again lose its lead, so there's a lot to be interested in in the final few weeks of the year.
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November 19th, 2013
As expected, Thor: The Dark World led the way on the weekend box office chart. However, The Best Man Holiday was surprisingly strong and helped soften the blow at the overall box office. Even so, the box office was down 26% from the last weekend at $125 million. A 26% drop-off is bad, but the year-over-year comparison was even worse. So much worse. Compared to this weekend last year when The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 debut, the box office was down almost exactly 50%. And with that, 2013 is no longer ahead of 2012's pace. It was bound to happen with the weak box office numbers recently. Granted, 2013 is only behind by 0.4% at $9.02 billion to $9.06 and one really good weekend could reverse that situation. In fact, the opening of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire this coming weekend could reverse that situation, but 2013 will be neck-and-neck with 2012 from here on out, instead of the solid leads it held for much of the year.
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November 14th, 2013
Last weekend, Thor: The Dark World made its debut. Next weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens up. With these two monster hits opening so close together, it comes as no surprise that this weekend there are not a lot of new releases. In fact, we only have The Best Man Holiday as a wide release. It won't be able to score top spot, but the lack of direct competition should help it score a solid second place. On the down side, this weekend last year The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 opened with $141.07 million, which is very likely more than the entire box office will make this season.
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November 11th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World matched expectations nearly perfectly and dominated the box office over the weekend. In fact, it earned more than the rest of the box office pulled in combined. This helped the overall box office rise 32% from last weekend reaching $167 million. Unfortunately, Thor couldn't match Skyfall's opening weekend and the total box office was 3% lower than the same weekend last year. 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by 0.9% at $8.85 million to $8.77 million. Since there is only one new release next weekend, and it isn't a prime release, we will likely see another year-over-year loss. Fortunately, 2013 should still stay ahead of 2012 and Catching Fire should end 2013's losing streak in a big way.
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November 10th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World gets the holiday season off to a start this weekend with a powerful display at the box office. Disney is pegging its opening weekend at $86.8 million, which will be a healthy 30% boost from the debut of the first film in the franchise and also one of the ten biggest weekends in November. It's the first film in the Avengers über-franchise to open outside of the May-July Summer season, but that certainly doesn't seemed to have harmed it at the box office, and it won't have much competition until Catching Fire opens in a couple of weeks' time. All said, it looks a virtual certainty to top the box office performance of the original.
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November 8th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World will easily win the race for the top of the box office this weekend. It really has no competition for top spot, and only token competition as far as new releases are concerned. About Time is the only other new wide release, and quite frankly, I should add quotes around both "new" and "wide", as it opened in limited release last weekend, will expand to 1,400 theaters this weekend and it likely won't reach the top five. It will be interesting to see if Ender's Game will hold up next to the competition from Thor, but that seems unlikely. Thor: The Dark World could do well when compared to last year's number one film, Skyfall, but 2013 just doesn't have the depth to thrive, so 2013 will lose again in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 7th, 2013
Thor: The Dark World made its international debut a week ahead of its domestic debut and it crushed the competition with $109.4 million in 36 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned first place with $13.80 million on 522 screens. By comparison, the first Thor film managed $9.11 million on 500. If the film has a similar increase in its opening weekend here, it could open with $100 million. That's probably too optimistic; it did show growth in most major markets, just not as much as it did in the U.K. France was the second best new market with an opening of $9.94 million on 609 screens, compared to $8.69 million for its predecessor. Germany and Mexico were neck-and-neck with $8.31 million on 620 screens and $8.26 million on 2,482 respectively. Russia was strong with $7.59 million on 769 screens. Australia made $6.80 million on 609 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.98 million. Brazil was close behind with $6.69 million on 1,090 screens. In South Korea it made $6.11 million on 843 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.63 million. The only major market to see a decrease was Spain, where the film made $3.34 million on 717 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.82 million. By comparison, Thor made $5.58 million on 562 screens.
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November 6th, 2013
As anticipated, Ender's Game won the weekend race with ease and no individual film truly bombed. That said, the overall effort was still lacking. Compared to last weekend, the overall box office was up 23% to $127 million, which is nice to see. However, and more importantly, this was 8% lower than the same weekend last year, thus ending 2013's winning streak at one weekend. 2013 is still ahead of 2012's pace, but by a shrinking margin. Currently, this year is ahead of last year by less than 0.5% at $8.66 billion to $8.62 billion. It wouldn't take much to 2013 to lose the lead at this point, and this might happen sometime during this month. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should end any losing streak when it is released, but perhaps not before 2013 falls behind 2012's pace.
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October 31st, 2013
November begins with three wide releases of varying quality. Ender's Game is the only one earning overall positive reviews and it is the only one with a real shot at becoming anything more than a midlevel hit. To call Free Birds a second-tier animated family film is being very generous. Its reviews might dip into the single-digit level. Finally, there's Last Vegas, which is flying under the radar for most moviegoers. It is unlikely any of them will become a breakout hit. It is nearly certain that none will match last year's number one film, Wreck-It Ralph. November is going to start off on a losing note.
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October 30th, 2013
Gravity earned first place for the fourth week with $37.7 million on 7,340 screens in 53 markets for a total of $164.4 million internationally and $364.0 million worldwide. This weekend it debuted in first place in France with a very impressive $10.76 million on 398 screens. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $5.29 million on 531 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $15.55 million. It also repeated in top spot in Mexico with $3.79 million on 1,563 screens over the weekend for a total of $12.04 million after two. The film will likely pull in close to $100 million in just these holdovers, plus it has yet to open in the U.K., Japan and China, so it could make another $100 million in those three markets as well.
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October 29th, 2013
The winner of our Born to be Bad contest was determined and it is...
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October 29th, 2013
The month long slump 2013 has been on is finally over, thanks in part to Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa. However, the overall box office still wasn't that good, as it was down slightly from last weekend to $102 million. Granted, "slightly" in this case means a fraction of 1%, so it isn't troubling. On the other hand, it was 10% higher than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, year-to-date, 2013's lead over 2012 has shrunk to just $50 million or 0.6% at $8.49 billion to $8.44 billion. In fact, 2013 has not sold less tickets than 2012 had at this point in its run. That's not good and it is unlikely things will turn around in the coming few weeks.
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October 27th, 2013
As anticipated, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa will end Gravity's run at the top of the chart this weekend, with the hidden camera comedy set to earn about $32 million according to Paramount Pictures, somewhat less than Jackass 3D, but very much in line with the other films in the Jackass franchise. The 32% decline for Gravity, meanwhile, is its steepest fall so far, but topping $20 million in its fourth weekend is an impressive performance (only 24 other films have done it), and it will end the weekend within a whisker of $200 million.
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October 25th, 2013
So far October has been a bad month at the box office. Granted, Gravity should crack $200 million over the weekend; however, week after week after week we've seen declines in the year-over-year comparison. Will that losing streak finally end this weekend? We do have some good news. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa should earn $30 million, more or less, easily topping the chart this weekend and earning much more than last year's number one film Argo. In fact, it might earn more than all four new releases from last year. Additionally, The Counselor isn't expected to be the biggest hit, but it still could earn more than Argo did this time last year and should earn more than the best new releases, Cloud Atlas, did. Are we finally going to see 2013's slump end? I really hope so, because 2013 is not that far ahead of 2012's pace and if the slump doesn't end soon, it could find itself slipping behind last year's pace.
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October 18th, 2013
Next week there are two wide releases, but let's be frank, only one of them has a real shot at first place. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa should finally end Gravity's reign on the box office charts and will likely crush The Counselor, the only other wide release of the week. It is the easy choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Pacific Rim on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 1st, 2013
October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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