Gravity

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: GravityMovie.WarnerBros.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: October 4th, 2013
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for intense perilous sequences, some disturbing images and brief strong language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Thriller
Keywords: Space Program, Marooned, Rescue, 3D, Shot in 3D, Hallucination, Suicide, and more
Directed By: Alfonso Cuaron
Written By: Alfonso Cuaron
Starring: Sandra Bullock, George Clooney, and others
Production Budget: Reported at $80 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million

This is the first full movie made by Alfonso Cuaron since Children of Men. That film cost $76 million to make, but pulled in less than $70 million worldwide. It also stars George Clooney, whose last $100 million hit was Oceans Thirteen. The other star is Sandra Bullock, who has had three $100 million hits in her last five films. At least one of them is on a hot streak. Fortunately, the reviews for Gravity are amazing and the buzz is also very strong. Unfortunately, it cost $80 million to make, so even if it does cross $100 million domestically, it will need help on the international market if it wants to break even.

Runner Runner

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: RunnerRunnerMovie.com
Distributor: Fox
Release Date: October 4th, 2013
MPAA Rating: R for language and some sexual content.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Thriller
Keywords: Internet, Gambling, Revenge, FBI, and more
Directed By: Brad Furman
Written By: Brian Koppleman and David Levien
Starring: Justin Timberlake, Ben Affleck, Gemma Arterton, and others
Production Budget: Reported at $30 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

Justin Timberlake stars as a man who uses online gambling to pay for his way through Ivy League university. When he loses everything, he blames Ben Affleck and tracks him down to the Caribbean. However, Ben offers him a job, which Justin takes. Later, after Justin realizes how ruthless his boss is, he's approached by the FBI, who want his help to take down his new boss.

Early reviews are terrible and there's almost no buzz. Also, Justin Timberlake has very few hits to his credit and most of his lifetime box office has come from voicework. Recently, Ben Affleck's box office numbers have been terrible, unless he's in a movie that he's also written and directed. He's not writing or directing this movie, so that's another bad sign.

Captain Phillips

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: CaptainPhillipsMovie.com
Distributor: Sony
Release Date: October 11th, 2013
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sustained intense sequences of menace, some violence with bloody images, and for substance use.
Source: Based on Real Life
Major Genre: Drama
Keywords: Pirates, Hostage, Rescue, Hijacking, and more
Directed By: Paul Greengrass
Written By: Billy Ray
Starring: Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdi, and others
Production Budget: Estimated at $60 million to $80 million
Box Office Potential: $75 million to $125 million

This is a tough film to predict. I think it will open with about $20 million, but thanks to great reviews, it will have long legs earning $75 million, maybe even a little more than $80 million. However, because of the nature of the film, it could do much better, much, much better. It stars Tom Hanks, who has five Oscar nominations, including two wins. The director, Paul Greengrass, has an Oscar nod, while Catherine Keener has two. Additionally, it is based on real life events, which is something Oscar voters tend to love. That could spell Oscar Glory. If so, it could open with $25 million and earn well over $125 million, making it the biggest hit of the month. This may seem overly optimistic, but Argo did even better last year, so it is not out of the question. That said, I think sticking to the lower range would be wiser for now. Maybe if the Oscar buzz grows over the next few weeks, I will become more bullish.

Machete Kills

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Facebook.com/MacheteKills
Distributor: Open Road
Release Date: October 11th, 2013
MPAA Rating: R for strong bloody violence throughout, language and some sexual content.
Source: Original Screenplay / Sequel
Major Genre: Action
Keywords: Secret Agent, Terrorism, Political, Corporate Malfeasance, Grindhouse, Ensemble, Gratuitous Cameos, and more
Directed By: Robert Rodriguez
Written By: Robert Rodriguez, Marcel Rodriguez, and Kyle Ward
Starring: Danny Trejo, and many others
Production Budget: Reported at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

The original Machete only cost $12.5 million to make and it had a lot of pre-release buzz, so it looked like it would be a big hit. The reviews were also very good, especially considering it started as a joke. (It first appeared as a fake trailer in Grindhouse.) However, this buzz turned out to be an illusion. It was Internet buzz, not real buzz, and the film struggled at the box office. It made enough to break even, eventually. It didn't make enough for Fox to want to release a sequel, so Open Road is handling Machete Kills. The sequel cost more to make, but it likely won't do significantly better at the box office. Maybe it will be a hit on the home market, like its predecessor was.

Romeo and Juliet

This is another film that is tough to predict, because I'm not sure if it will open wide. Relativity usually releases films wide, but there's a lot of talk this film will open in limited release. If it does open in limited release, I'm pretty confident it won't expand wide. The director, Carlo Carlei, is known mostly for his TV work. Douglas Booth has made almost no films that have earned a theatrical release here; his last movie was LOL, which was dumped direct-to-DVD here. Hailee Steinfeld has only made one previous movie. Granted, that movie was True Grit, which earned her an Oscar nomination. That said, she hasn't proved she can carry a movie like this. Additionally, there are many films based on this play, so people who love this story likely have a favorite adaption. If you have a favorite adaptation, you are less likely to see this one, unless the reviews are excellent, and right now it is way too early to tell. The final bit of bad news is the competition. If the film does open wide, there will be three wide releases this week and that might make it the busiest weekend of the month and it might get lost in the crowd.

I really hope this is a good film. There are many people who are dismissing it, because it is a remake, but I think that is unwise. There have been a lot of great remakes, like The Thing, which is widely considered to be better than the original was. There are also many, many movies based on original scripts that are just terrible. Granted, the original Carrie is a classic, so this Carrie has a lot to live up to. Then again, this is not the first horror remake that Chloë Grace Moretz has starred in. Let Me In was amazing. On the other hand, it bombed at the box office. I fear this will be the case for this movie as well. It could earn great reviews, but the "Horror Remake" label could still kill it at the box office. I don't think that will be the case, but I also don't think it will be anything more than a midlevel hit.

Sylvester Stallone stars as Ray Breslin, a man who helps design prisons, by being sent into them and breaking out. His latest job involves the latest high security prison, but when he gets sent there, he learns it is a setup. He isn't supposed to look for weaknesses in the prison security, but the people who hired him want him to remain in prison, forever. Fortunately, he meets Arnold Schwarzenegger and the pair team up to break out of this inescapable prison.

This might be the most expensive bomb of the year. Some reports say it cost $70 million to make, but I've also seen a story on the movie that said it cost £75 million, which would be $120 million. If the higher number is true, there's no chance this film will break even. Even if it only cost $70 million to make, there's very little chance it will break even. The buzz is quite weak and one of the big limited releases coming out this week might top it at the box office.

This is one of several films opening this month that may or may not open wide. It better open wide, because if it opens in limited release, its reviews will probably kill it quickly. Benedict Cumberbatch is earning a lot of praise for his performance, but even positive reviews note how superficial the story is. Even if it does open wide, it will likely be seen as busted Oscar bait and fade away, possibly before matching its production budget here. If it does open in limited release, it might not get to $1 million. The above box office potential is a weighted average of those two extremes.

Chiwetel Ejiofor stars as Solomon Northup, who, in 1841 was kidnapped and forced into Slavery for 12 years. That's a powerful story and it practically screams Oscar bait. Additionally, the reviews are nearly perfect and the film won the People's Choice Award at this year's Toronto Film Festival. All of this suggests it could be a major hit. However, the film is opening in limited release. It still has a chance at reaching $100 million, if it becomes the big winner during Awards Season, but it could also stumble out of the gate and disappear before Award Season buzz begins to build. I think the former is more likely that the latter. At the very least, it should pick up a number of major award nominations and expand wide enough to earn some significant measure of mainstream success.

This film has an incredible pedigree, including a multi-Oscar nominated director, Ridley Scott. The script was written by Cormac McCarthy, who wrote the novel No Country for Old Men. Its five stars mentioned above have ten Oscar nominations and two wins, not to mention lots of Golden Globe nomations, SAG nominations, etc. Unfortunately, the buzz is not quite where I would like it. Granted, it doesn't open for nearly a full month, so there's still time for buzz to build. It will need really strong reviews, because this film's target audience will not only have films like Captain Phillips, but limited releases like Twelve Years a Slave will likely be expanding significantly this weekend. On the other hand, if the film's reviews are great and it can earn some Oscar buzz, then it will have a shot at being a breakout hit.

The film is a spin-off from the Jackass franchise, but will fans of the zany stunts be interested in the more hidden-camera focused gags? This is more Borat than Jackass, although with less politics than Borat had. There is a plot, unlike with the Jackass movies, but also has some hidden-camera jokes, like the Jackass movies had. On the one hand, I liked Borat. On the other hand, the grandpa jokes from the original Jackass movies were some of my least liked parts of those movies. On the other, other hand, I'm not in the target audience for this movie, so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. I think this movie could open with $30 million, but have very short legs. That said, it likely cost less than $30 million to make, so a $30 million opening would be a great start, no matter what its legs are like.