March 28th, 2016
The Hunger Games franchise has come to a close. The four films earned a combined $1.45 billion domestically and $2.90 billion worldwide. The final two chapters of the film franchise didn't live up to the first two in terms of quality and box office numbers. Did it collapse so much in quality that the franchise isn't worth owning? If not, is it worth picking up, even with the double-dips?
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March 21st, 2016
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This week, there are not many releases to talk about and one of them, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, is dominating the list so much that I could ignore the rest of the list and very little of substance would be lost. I'm not going to do that, but I could. The Box Set is a contender for Pick of the Week, but I'm still waiting for the screener. City Lights is another contender for Pick of the Week, but in the end, I went with the Canadian movie, Mountain Men on DVD, which is Puck of the Week.
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March 8th, 2016
It's March 8th, which is International Women's Day. This is the one day a year where men flood Twitter asking, "Why isn't there an International Men's Day." ... There is. It's November 19th. ... Anyway, it isn't a great week for new releases. The biggest release is The Peanuts Movie and its 3D Combo Pack is a Pick of the Week contender. However, it just misses out on that title to Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Season 1.
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December 23rd, 2015
As expected, not opening in China cost Star Wars: The Force Awakens the international opening weekend record, as it earned $281 million, which is behind Jurassic World’s opening international weekend of $316.1 million. However, The Force Awakens did set the worldwide opening record with $529 million, just ahead of Jurassic World’s mark of $525 million. This is especially impressive, as Jurassic World opened with just over $100 million in China. Even a slower than expected opening in China would have given The Force Awakens the first $600 million global opening.
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December 21st, 2015
It's been a busy weekend for box office record watchers, as Star Wars: The Force Awakens destroyed the record book. However, it wasn't the only film playing in theaters. The Force Awakens earned $247.97 million, which by itself is the 11th biggest Combined Box Office. Add in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, the new limited releases and all of the holdovers, and the total box office reached $313 million, topping the old record of $274 million. Needless to say, the overall box office was higher compared to last weekend by 304%. It was also higher than last year by a margin of 131%. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $10.13 billion, putting it 5.9% or $560 million ahead of last year's pace. 2015's lead over 2014 grew by more than 1.5 percentage points / $160 million over just one weekend.
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December 17th, 2015
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them matters: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Better than anticipated reviews could help it break records over the weekend. It has already broken some box office records, becoming the first film to reach $100 million in advance ticket sales. The other wide releases are Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, both of which are just trying to not completely disappear. This weekend last year, the total box office was $135 million. The Force Awakens could earn nearly 50% more than that and some would still see it as a disappointment. 2015 should extend its lead over 2014 by more than $100 million.
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December 16th, 2015
Surprise You’ll Never Think Of: Journey To The West took $17.54 million over four days, giving it first place in both China and internationally. Journey To The West is one of the most popular Chinese stories ever written and is like the Hamlet of Chinese literature. Hamlet has over 50 feature-length film adaptations and Journey To The West is quickly catching up to that number.
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December 14th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 remained in first place for the fourth weekend in a row, which is terrible news for the box office. A film repeating on top happens a lot, but to get to four weeks in a row, it means the new releases have been particularly weak. That was the case this week, as In the Heart of the Sea had to settle for second place with well below expectations. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to $78 million. This is 7.2% lower than the same weekend last year. Had In the Heart of the Sea merely matched predictions, then 2015 would have won in the year-over-year competition. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $9.79 billion, putting it almost exactly $400 million ahead of last year's pace.
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December 13th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 will cruise to another victory at the box office this weekend, for the simple reason that In the Heart of the Sea is having a terrible opening. Mockingjay will be down another 40% in its fourth weekend, and will pick up a relatively modest $11.3 million, taking its domestic total to $244.5 million. That confirms it as comfortably the worst-performing film in the franchise, and even a Christmas-season boost at the box office will leave it under $300 million in total. That, however, is unimaginable riches compared to the performance of Heart of the Sea.
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December 12th, 2015
In the Heart of the Sea started out in first place on Friday, but won’t be on top for long. It earned just $3.85 million, putting it ahead of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, which earned $3.26 million. However, holdovers have a lot bigger gains on Saturday, while In the Heart of the Sea will likely fall and miss $10 million over the weekend. This is a disaster for a film that cost $100 million to make. This is bad news for Warner Bros., as it is not the first major flop they’ve had this year. Outside of American Sniper, which opened in 2014, they haven’t had a single monster hit (domestic box office of $200 million or more). On the other end, they’ve had three films with $100 million production budgets that flopped this year (Jupiter Ascending, Pan, and now In the Heart of the Sea). Worse still, they have one more $100 million movie coming out this year, Point Break, and it is widely expected to flop as well. For years, Warner Bros. was the biggest studio in the world, but after this year, there might need to be a major shake up to turn things around.
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December 10th, 2015
There's only one wide release this week, In the Heart of the Sea, although some sources still have Legend expanding nationwide. Of course, expanding nationwide doesn't mean the same thing as expanding truly wide. Because In the Heart of the Sea doesn't have any real competition this weekend, it is widely expected to earn first place, but it isn't expected to be a smash hit. It is very unlikely it will do as well as last year's number one film, Exodus: Gods and Kings. The depth is a little better this year, but 2015 will still likely struggle to match 2014 in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 9th, 2015
It was a milestone weekend for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, as it crossed the $500 million mark worldwide. Over the weekend, the film pulled in $32.4 million in 93 markets for totals of $296.8 million internationally and $524.2 million worldwide. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it pulled in $4.77 million on 1,127 screens for a three-week total of $30.53 million. On the other hand, its biggest market overall has been the U.K., where it has made $35.21 million, including $3.38 million in 539 theaters this past weekend. There are rumors that Lionsgate are working on prequels for this franchise. Not sure that's a good idea.
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December 6th, 2015
Krampus is providing the industry with some surprise post-Thanksgiving, pre-Holiday cheer this weekend, with an opening well ahead of expectations amongst a crowd of slightly disappointing results. Mockingjay, Part 2 will top the chart with $18.6 million, which is off a surprisingly steep 64%. With the film expected to hit $20 million or so this weekend, that’s a disappointment, and makes a final total of $300 million look just out of reach. The Good Dinosaur was expected to have the legs of a Pixar movie, and is instead looking more like a run-of-the-mill high-budget animated film, so instead of topping $20 million, it is down 60% to $15.5 million for the weekend. That left an opening for Krampus, which will take second spot overall with a $16-million debut.
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December 5th, 2015
2015 has had some record highs, but plenty of record lows as well. The weekend after Thanksgiving is historically one of the low points of the year. However, this year it is doing rather well thanks to a surprisingly fast start by Krampus. Don't get me wrong. This isn’t going to be a monster hit, and probably not even a midlevel one. However, it earned $6.01 million on Friday, which is enough for first place and excellent for this time of year. With a start like this and overall positive reviews, it might top $15 million during its opening weekend, which is more that it is estimated to have cost.
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December 3rd, 2015
The weekend after Thanksgiving is historically a really bad time of the year at the box office. This year there is only one wide release risking it, Krampus. However, this is one more wide release than we had this week last year. There is also a semi-wide release coming out, The Letter, but its reviews are terrible and its box office chances might be even worse. This should give The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 an easy path to first place. In fact, the top three will likely remain the same as last weekend. Fortunately, the holdovers this year are stronger than the holdovers last year, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 2nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 remained in first place with $62.0 million in 93 markets for totals of $242.4 million internationally and $440.9 million worldwide. The film's only major market opening came from Spain where it had to settle for second place with a total opening of $4.52 million on 449 screens. Its biggest market overall is the U.K. where it pulled in $6.78 million in 579 theaters over the weekend for a total of $28.88 million after two weeks of release. At this pace, the film will finish with between $600 million and $700 million, which is amazing, but below average for the Hunger Games franchise.
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December 1st, 2015
Carol remained in first place on the per theater chart with an average of $49,443 in four theaters. This is 22% lower than the film's opening weekend average, which isn't bad for a limited release. The Danish Girl opened in a close second place with $46,830, also in four theaters. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 earned first place on the overall chart and third place on the per theater chart with an average of $12,456. Janis: Little Girl Blue earned an average of $10,931 in two theaters, which is great for a documentary. The second wide release in the $10,000 club was The Good Dinosaur with an average of $10,444.
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November 29th, 2015
The combined forces of a 50% weekend-to-weekend decline at the box office and two strong rivals wasn’t enough to knock The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 off its perch at the top of the box office chart this Thanksgiving. With a three-day total of $51.6 million (and $75.8 million over five), the franchise-capper will finish the holiday just shy of $200 million at the domestic box office. With a reported $242.4 million overseas, the film is hurrying towards $500 million worldwide, and sits at $440.7 million as of Sunday evening.
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November 28th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 has fallen off Part 1’s pace with a Friday haul of $21.25 million. On the positive side, it has $167.96 million after just 8 days of release and should get to $200 million over the weekend. Its theater average is strong enough that it should remain in wide release, even after Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens.
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November 27th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 led the daily box office on Thursday with $10.4 million, which is 25% lower than Wednesday's number. This is nearly identical to Part 1's decline at the same point in its run, so Friday's numbers will decide if Part 2 is catching up, or if it is falling away.
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November 26th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 led the way on Wednesday with $13.8 million. That's just 5.6% lower than Part 1's daily box office at this point in its run, compared to a 16% shortfall during its opening weekend. This is good news for the film's legs and it means it might still top its predecessor's final number. Might.
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November 25th, 2015
It appears The Good Dinosaur will win the box office race this weekend with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 being pushed into second place. Creed should have the best opening weekend of the franchise. Meanwhile, Victor Frankenstein is just hoping for a spot in the top five. I don't think it will get there. Both new releases from last year failed to meet expectations, so that gives 2015 a real shot at coming out on top of the year-over-year comparison.
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November 25th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 easily won the box office race on the international chart with $146.0 million in 87 markets for a worldwide opening of $248.7 million. Its biggest market was China, but it only managed third place there with $16.11 million. The film cracked $10 million in the U.K. with $14.10 million in 941 theaters and in Germany with $13.42 million on 1,002. The film's openings were lower than Part 1 managed in most markets (Germany and Latin American seem to be the biggest exceptions) but it is still doing well enough that it will break even before it reaches the home market.
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November 24th, 2015
The winners of our Ultimate Hunger contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opening weekend were...
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November 24th, 2015
Carol had a festive opening earning just over $250,000 in four theaters for an average of $63,378. That's the third best average for an opening this year, just ahead of Ex Machina and just behind Sicario. The overall box office leader, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, was next with an average of $24,591. Legend was next with an average of $21,709 in four theaters. That's a good start, but its reviews suggest not so good legs. Speaking of long legs, Brooklyn remained in the $10,000 for the third week in a row earning an average of $10,270 in just over 100 theaters.
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November 24th, 2015
The Curse of the High Expectations strikes again. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 became the fifth film of the year to open with more than $100 million. This should be a reason to celebrate, but it marks a very steep decline from previous films in the Hunger Games franchise. The other two wide releases, The Night Before and Secret in Their Eyes, both failed to meet expectations, leaving the overall box office softer than anticipated. Granted, it still grew 60% from last weekend to $173 million, but this is 10% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by a comfortable margin of 3.6% or $320 million. It would take a sizable collapse for 2015 to not come out on top in terms of raw box office dollars. On the other hand, it wouldn't take too much for it to slip below ticket price inflation, which is about 2% this year.
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November 21st, 2015
There’s good news / bad news for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2’s Friday box office. On the positive side, it is dominating in theaters with $46 million on Friday, which is more than any other film will earn during the entire weekend. It might be more than the combined weekend hauls of the rest of the top five, in fact. On the down side, this is below expectations and puts the film on pace for about $104 million for the weekend as a whole. Granted, this is still the best opening since Jurassic World and the fifth-best opening of the year, but it is well behind Part 1, which pulled in $55 million on its opening day, so some will call this a disappointment. It is the curse of high expectations.
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November 20th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 got off to a $16 million start last night. That is the best "midnight" preview we've seen since Jurassic World earned $18.5 million this summer. However, it is a little lower than The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1's figure of $17 million. Does this mean Part 2 is going to open on the low end of expectations? It's too soon to tell. Previews are not very predictive of box office success, especially when the numbers are this close. Obviously bigger would be better, but there's no reason to panic just yet.
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November 20th, 2015
It should be a very busy weekend, at least at the top, as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 is nearly guaranteed to dominate the box office and many think it will top $100 million over the weekend. On the other hand, the other two releases are The Night Before and Secret in Their Eyes, neither of which is expected to do particularly well. That said, they would have to truly bomb to not at least make the top five, but I doubt either of them will top Spectre over the weekend. This weekend last year, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 opened with just over $120 million. That is the figure Part 2 will need to match to be considered a success. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic, but not everyone is.
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November 18th, 2015
The winners of our Procrastoween contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Love the Coopers opening weekend were...
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November 17th, 2015
There's not much in the way of good news to talk about, which is something that is becoming sadly common. Two of the three new releases missed expectations and expectations were low to begin with. Love the Coopers led the new releases, but it is hardly what you would call a box office hit. Even calling it a middling hit is overstating things. The 33 barely managed a spot in the top five and will quickly leave theaters. My All-American missed the Mendoza Line* by a mile and missed the top ten in the process. This meant Spectre and The Peanuts Movie remained on top of the charts, but they could only help the box office avoid becoming a disaster. As it is, the overall box office fell 33% from last weekend to just $108 million. This was 23% less than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015's lead over 2015 took a real hit and its down to 3.9% at $9.06 billion to $8.72 billion. However, as we've seen recently, the overall box office is weaker than the these numbers look, as we've seen few major hits and many, many bombs.
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November 11th, 2015
Next week, there are three wide releases, but only one of them matters: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2. It is legitimately the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of American Ultra on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of American Ultra on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final copy of American Ultra on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 10th, 2015
The winners of our Elementary, My Dear Bond contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Spectre opening weekend were...
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November 1st, 2015
October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the final Hunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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