May 24th, 2017
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It is a great week on the home market with two monster hits coming out: Logan and Get Out. However, both have previously been named Pick of the Week. Fortunately there was one other release in competition for Pick of the Week, My Life as a Zucchini on Blu-ray. Thank goodness this film comes out this week. Otherwise, John Wick: Chapter Two would have become the third Video on Demand release in a row to win Pick of the Week.
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May 10th, 2017
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It’s not a good week for top-notch releases. Fifty Shades Darker is the biggest new DVD / Blu-ray release of the week, but it is far from the best. Get Out is clearly the best new release on this week’s list, but while it is the Pick of the Week, it is only coming out on Video on Demand and I would wait for the Blu-ray. Meanwhile we have another Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release. Those are usually rare, but we’ve have a streak of them recently. This week it’s The Void, which is great, but only coming out on DVD.
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March 2nd, 2017
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter rocketed to the top of the chart of the international chart with $96.67 million on 24,465 screens in 75 markets for totals of $211.87 million internationally and $238.52 million worldwide. The film opened in China over the weekend earning $90.76 million over the weekend and $92.98 million including Thursday previews. At this point, the studio’s share of the worldwide box office is approximately $80 million, or twice as much as it cost to make. If the film hasn’t already broken even, it will do so shortly. I know the film is called The Final Chapter, but I can see the franchise continuing, focusing almost entirely on the foreign market.
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February 28th, 2017
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Get Out beat expectations on the weekend box office chart earning first place with $33.38 million. Not only did it beat expectations, but it also had better than expected legs over the weekend and that bodes well for its long term success. Neither of the other two wide releases, Collide and Rock Dog, earned a spot in the top ten. Both will disappear from theaters A.S.A.P. Overall, the box office fell 17% from last weekend to $123 million. It is, however, 9.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Meanwhile, 2017 remains $100 million behind last year’s pace at $1.69 billion to $1.79 billion. 2017 made gains over the weekend, but The Lego Batman Movie was the number one movie during the midweek and having a kids movie on top hurts the weekday box office numbers.
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February 25th, 2017
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As expected, Get Out earned first place on the Friday box office chart with $10.8 million. This a little higher than originally predicted, but not quite up to the heights that seemed possible after Thursday’s $1.8 million in previews. The film’s Tomatometer Score remains 100% positive, although I did see that Armond White gave the film a negative review. I didn’t realize he still wrote reviews. His reputation is so bad that a negative review from him is something to cherish. Furthermore, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is stunning for a horror film. Even a B plus is great for a horror film. Look for $28 million over the weekend and an easy first place finish.
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February 23rd, 2017
There are three films opening wide this weekend, which is a surprise. The buzz for Collide and Rock Dog are so quiet that I’m surprised they are playing in more than 2,000 theaters and I will be equally surprised if they open above the Mendoza Line by averaging more than $2,000 per theater. On the other hand, Get Out has nearly 100 reviews and its Tomatometer Score is 100% positive. It could be a surprise smash hit. Then again... It could be another Keanu. If that happens, The Lego Batman Movie will earn its third first-place finish in a row. That’s would be bad news for the overall box office. This weekend last year there were a similar selection of new releases. Gods of Egypt struggled while the other two new releases bombed, and only Deadpool saved the box office. If Get Out matches Deadpool’s total weekend of $31 million this time last year, I will be so happy. I don’t think it will happen, but it could be close.
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February 23rd, 2017
Fifty Shades Darker remained in first place on the international chart with $44.5 million on 9,600 screens in 59 markets for totals of $187.2 million internationally and $276.2 million worldwide. The film had no major openings this past weekend, and won’t until it opens in Japan in June. The film’s best market over the weekend was Germany, where it earned $6.1 million on 736 screens for a total of $21.2 million after two weeks of release.
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February 22nd, 2017
As expected, The Lego Batman Movie easily won the weekend box office race with $32.66 million over the weekend and $42.74 million including Monday. The biggest new release of the week was The Great Wall, which earned $18.47 million / $21.51 million during its opening weekend. Overall, the box office slumped by 21% from last weekend at $145 million. This is still 4.5% higher than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, due to the misalignment in holidays, 2017 still lost ground over the full week. In fact, it is now a full $100 million behind 2016’s pace at $1.53 billion to $1.63 million. It is still too early to really tell where 2017 will end up, but we could really use some big wins right about now.
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February 19th, 2017
The Lego Batman Movie will secure another weekend at the top of the box office chart thanks to a modest 35% drop from its opening, and soft openings for all the new wide releases. The animated adventure will make $34.2 million over three days, and is expected to earn about $45 million when the President’s Day holiday numbers are added in. It will pass $100 million at the domestic box office tomorrow.
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February 18th, 2017
It is a disappointing weekend for new releases, as only The Great Wall managed to match low expectations. This left The Lego Batman Movie cruising to first place on Friday with $7.6 million. It is on pace for $42 million over the four-day weekend and will crack $100 million sometime on Monday, which matches our predictions almost perfectly. If the film can make $150 million domestically and $200 million internationally, then it will break even before it reaches the home market.
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February 17th, 2017
The first numbers for the weekend are in and they are not looking good. The Great Wall earned just $970,000 during its midnight previews, which is significantly less than half of what John Wick: Chapter Two managed just last weekend. Granted, John Wick: Chapter Two was a sequel and those tend to get off to faster starts, while The Great Wall has a Holiday to help boost its legs. On the other hand, The Great Wall’s reviews are much, much worse. We were only predicting just under $19 million during the four-day weekend. We are keeping that for now, but we might have to adjust it lower tomorrow.
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February 16th, 2017
There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to challenge for top spot. Although, there could be an interesting race between the two biggest releases, Fist Fight and The Great Wall. Sadly, this is because both have seen their box office potential fall over the past week. A Cure for Wellness never really had much box office potential. This will leave The Lego Batman Movie with an easy win over the Presidents’ Day long weekend, while we should have five films earning more than $10 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. This weekend last year, there were also three wide releases that struggled at the box office leaving Deadpool with an easy win. The Lego Batman Movie won’t match Deadpool at the top, but 2017 has much better depth, so that should help keep the year-over-year race close.
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February 10th, 2017
Historical action adventure starring Matt Damon, directed by Zhang Yimou, opens February 17 ... Full Movie Details.
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February 10th, 2017
Next week there are three wide releases: A Cure for Wellness, Fist Fight, and The Great Wall. A Cure for Wellness was never expected to compete for top spot, but The Great Wall was supposed to be a contender. That’s not going to happen. Its box office potential has tanked and it looks like Fist Fight will easily be the best of the week. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Fist Fight.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2017
January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
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January 5th, 2017
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story added $45.8 million in 55 markets to its running tally, which now sits at $350.0 million internationally and $775.0 million worldwide. By the end of Sunday, the film was already in tenth place for the year and while it is not doing as well internationally as it is domestically, it is still on pace to hit fifth place by as early as this weekend. Its biggest market is the U.K., where it has pulled in $64.4 million, but the U.K. might not stay on top for long, because the film opens in China this weekend.
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December 20th, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story started its international run where everyone expected it to start, in first place. It earned $135.5 million in 54 markets during its opening weekend, which is a mixed result. Hear me out, the film did manage the best opening of 2016 in a dozen markets, including a quartet of major markets: France ($10.0 million); Germany ($12.5 million); Spain ($4.5 million); and the U.K. ($21.59 million). However, it also missed expectations in the same number of major markets: Brazil ($5.3 million); Italy ($3.22 million); Mexico ($5.1 million); and Russia ($5.76 million). Other major market openings for the film include Australia ($10.77 million) and Japan ($7.9 million). So “mixed” in this case means “one of the biggest releases of the year, but not a The Force Awakens-level phenomenon". In a more direct comparison, the film earned just over half of what The Force Awakens opened with in these markets. If the film has the same legs, then it will finish with close to $600 million internationally and over $1 billion worldwide.
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August 1st, 2016
Ensemble comedy directed by, and starring John Krasinski, with Anna Kendrick, Sharlto Copley, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Charlie Day, Margo Martindale and Richard Jenkins opens August 26 ... Full Movie Details.
John Hollar, a struggling NYC artist is forced to navigate the small middle-American town he left behind when news of his mother's illness brings him home. Back in the house he grew up in, John is immediately swept up in the problems of his dysfunctional family, high-school rival and an over-eager ex-girlfriend as he faces impending fatherhood with his girlfriend in New York.
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July 28th, 2016
Action movie starring Matt Damon, directed by Zhang Yimou opens February 17, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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