June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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Hotel Transylvania came out a few years ago. It cost $85 million to make, which is a lot of money by nearly every definition, but relatively cheap for a digitally animated film. The reviews were mixed, but it was a big financial hit. It came as no surprise that there was a sequel. Hotel Transylvania 2 did better than its predecessor in nearly every way, but it is still a second-tier digitally animated film. For a second-tier film like this to succeed, all it needs to do is entertain the kids while not making the parents want to flee the room right away. That's not a particularly high bar to set. Does this film manage to get above that bar?
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As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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This week's new releases are so bad that I'm tempted to hold on to this story till I finish the review for Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Four on Blu-ray, just so I would have a real contender for Pick of the Week. According to Amazon.com, the best-selling new release of the week is an Anime title. Most weeks, Anime titles are filler, because of their are niche appeal. There are a few foreign releases and limited releases worth checking out, but there are not many contenders for Pick of the Week. The two best are Ginger & Rosa on DVD and Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXVII on DVD. I'm going with the former for Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Starbuck's DVD earns Puck of the Week. See it before Hollywood ruins it with a bad remake.
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Spring Breakers is one of the more unusual films to come out this week. The original buzz was pretty weak, with a lot of people dismissing it as "Disney Girls Gone Wild". When it was finally released, the critical response was divided. There were many critics who liked the movie, more so than those who disliked the movie, but there were also some who called it one of the worst movies ever. Its limited release was more lucrative than expected and the film currently has the best per theater average for 2013. So which side of the argument do I fall under? And is the DVD or the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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The Wizards Return: Alex vs. Alex is the first review in our Selena Gomez double-shot. The second film is Spring Breakers. There's not a lot of crossover appeal between those two films. The Wizards Return: Alex vs. Alex is a TV movie from The Wizards of Waverly Place and it earned excellent ratings when it first aired. But is it as good as its ratings? Or did it unduly benefit from the long-running show?
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It is a pretty busy week for limited releases with a number of them that could do well. Blancanieves should do well in art house cinemas, but it is too out there for mainstream success. Likewise, From Up on Poppy Hill should draw in fans of Anime, but there are not enough of them to allow the film to expand significantly. Ginger and Rosa has more appeal to mainstream audiences and strong buzz, but its reviews are only good and not great. Spring Breakers is also earning reviews that are good, but not great. However, it has a planned wide opening next week, so unless that falls apart, it will be the biggest hit on this week's list.
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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There are quite a few films that opened wide in theaters on this week's list, but most of them bombed at the box office. Hotel Transylvania is the only exception, but while it is a good kids movie, it isn't Pick of the Week material. The best release of the week, in my opinion, is Seven Psychopaths on either DVD or Blu-ray.
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There are only a few days left till Christmas and we are officially in the panic zone for gift shopping. This week we have our final installment of our annual Holiday Gift Guide. Part I dealt with first run releases, Part II dealt with TV on DVD releases, Part III dealt with limited releases, foreign titles, and classics. This week, we deal with some music, books, games, as well as releases from the first three parts that I forgot the first time around. As always, there are quite a few in that last category. (I also use this time to burn off some releases that arrived late. This way I can get through all of the late reviews quicker than normal and actually have enough time to celebrate Christmas.)
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