This graph shows Sandra Bullock’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
The Lost City looks as though it’ll post a weekend right in line with expectations, with Paramount projecting it’ll earn $31 million at the domestic box office this weekend. That’ll be enough for a comfortable weekend win, ahead of The Batman’s $20.5 million or so. Bollywood blockbuster RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt will land in third with an impressive $9.5-million projected weekend.
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The Lost City posted a very respectable $2.5 million in previews on Thursday ahead of its official release today, which puts it on course to win the weekend, although its race with The Batman could be close. Infinite Storm isn’t likely to be in the running for a place in the top three, but will provide a bit of extra oomph to the weekend and could help the market as a whole increase from last weekend. And RRR provides us with a wildcard element to keep things interesting for everyone.
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For the third consecutive week the three widest releases are in the same order as the box office charts, with The Batman leading the pack, followed by Uncharted and Dog. Even with those three firmly in place on our list, a throng of fresh films hit theaters this week, including no less than four films launching in wide release, to give moviegoers plenty of options for entertainment.
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This May was an odd month, as Avengers: Infinity War opened on the last weekend of April, rather than the first weekend of May. This meant May started out slowly, but Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story did well enough to give 2018 a healthy lead over 2017. Looking forward, there are two potential monster hits this month, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and another $100 million hit, Ocean’s 8. Last June, there were four $100 million hits, led by Wonder Woman, which pulled in over $400 million. I think 2018 and 2017 will be an even match at the top, so 2018 will have to rely on depth to improve upon its lead over 2017.
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When it comes to “star power” in Hollywood, I’ve been a skeptic ever since we launched our Bankability Index, and started looking at the real influence a single actor has on the performance of a film. With some notable exceptions (Tom Cruise and Sandra Bullock chief among them these days), actors generally don’t move the box office dial much when they appear in a generic film. But this weekend’s opening of Jason Bourne shows what the combination of the right actor in the right role can do. In spite of virtually identical reviews to 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, the new film, a franchise un-re-boot if you will, starring Matt Damon in the role he made iconic, will post a very solid $60 million this weekend. To be fair, that’s a bit behind the inflation-adjusted openings of The Bourne Ultimatum and The Bourne Supremacy, but it’s far better than the $38 million earned by Legacy when it debuted.
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Minions is one of the four, probably soon-to-be five films that earned more than $1 billion worldwide this year. Impressive. When I first heard they were making a spin-off of the Despicable Me films, I was not shocked in the least. Those two films were monster hits and were loved by critics. However, I was worried this movie wouldn't live up to its predecessors, because a little Minions goes a long way. Could they handle a movie to themselves? Or do they work better providing comic relief for the main characters?
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Halloween is a horror show for new releases, with none of them able to break a $2,000 theater average and The Martian enjoying a fourth weekend at the top of the chart. The sci-fi movie will earn about $11.4 million this weekend, for a total of $182.8 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning projection—down 28% from last weekend. The adult-skewing audience for the film meant it wasn’t badly affected by Halloween on Saturday, with its daily gross up 32% from Friday. In comparison, Goosebumps was up just 9% on Saturday, which leaves it too much to do to steal top spot. Sony projects the family adventure-horror film will end the weekend with $10.25 million over three days and $57.1 million in total. The new wide releases, meanwhile, will barely earn $10 million between them.
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Because Halloween is a dead zone for the box office when it lands during the weekend, it has a major effect on the box office. Therefore, it is important for box office analysts to compare weekends where the holiday lands on the same day. This is a problem, because the last time Halloween landed on a Saturday was 2009. The only film to open wide that weekend was Michael Jackson's This is It, which is in no way similar to any of the movies that opened wide this weekend. The previous similar weekend was in 1998, but while Vampires is a closer match to Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, the box office has changed too much to compare the films. We're flying blind this weekend. Fortunately, even flying blind, it is easy to make one declaration: All three wide releases bombed.
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September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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With the recent weak performance of films such as Transcendence and Edge of Tomorrow at the box office, there’s been a lot of talk recently about how much actors and actresses are really worth to a film. The poor performance of these films hasn’t come as a huge surprise to followers of the Bankability Index, which produces valuations considerably below the $20 million that Johnny Depp reportedly earned from his lead role in Transcendence, and we thought this is a good opportunity to look at what the Index says about the most valuable actors and actresses in the business.
With Angelina Jolie making headlines for all the right reasons for her starring role in Maleficent, it seemed only fitting to start with an analysis of the most valuable actresses in Hollywood. For this chart, we’ve taken each star’s worldwide Bankability Index and divided it by the number of films they make each year to get an estimate of the average value they bring to a film, as of June, 2014.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, finishing with Best Lead Actress. Unlike last year, this year the race is far more competitive in nearly all of the of the four acting categories this year. The person seen as the favorite has switched, more than once, and at the moment, I'm not sure who is going to win.
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The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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The Heat had a lot of pre-release buzz and many were expecting this film to be one of the best comedies of the year. When it finally opened, its reviews were good, but not great. Its box office numbers, on the other hand, were fantastic. It opened with just shy of $40 million and stuck around long enough to reach more than $150 million domestically. Did it deserve to strike it rich at the box office? Or did it over-perform compared to its quality level?
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Success at the box office is no guarantee of awards, but it certainly doesn't do any harm. And by that metric, Gravity's chances of picking up an Oscar or three is taking a considerable turn for the better this weekend as the sci-fi thriller heads towards a celestial $55.6 million debut, according to Warner Bros.'s Sunday projection. That will comfortably set a record for the biggest weekend in October, overtaking Paranormal Activity 3's $52.6 million back in 2011. With Captain Phillips and 12 Years a Slave opening in the next two weeks, awards season is getting interesting.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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The final weekend of June has two wide releases that should be in a very close battle at the box office. The Heat and White House Down could finish within $1 million of each other over the weekend. Unfortunately, neither one really has a shot at first place. It looks like Monsters University will have no trouble repeating as champion at the box office. Comparisons to last year are a little complicated. The new releases last year were stronger than the new releases this year; however, this year's holdovers are better. So will 2013 win in the year-over-year comparison? Not sure, but it could be really close.
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May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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