This graph shows Owen Wilson’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After opening as the second-widest release last week, Barbie stands alone atop this week’s list of widest releases. The larger half of the duo known as “Barbenheimer” scored a whopping $162 million in its opening weekend and currently enjoys a six-day domestic total of over $237 million. While the opening weekend rush might be over, the Greta Gerwig directed feature looks to have another big weekend at the box office as the film adds 94 locations to its opening count of 4,243 cinemas, becoming available in 4,337 theaters this week. Last week wasn’t solely about Barbie however, as Oppenheimer gladly took home its fair share from the weekend, with domestic earnings of $82.45 million. Oppenheimer starts its second week in 3,647 locations.
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Wednesday saw the release of the latest film based on a classic video game when The Super Mario Bros. Movie hit theaters. The movie opened in 4,025 locations and bumps up to a solid 4,343 cinemas starting Friday. The adventure film starring Chris Pratt as the beloved Italian plumber-turned-hero nabbed an impressive $31.7 million on its opening day in North America, while taking in $34.7 million overseas. Joining Pratt in the Universal Pictures feature is Anya Taylor-Joy as Princess Peach, Charlie Day as Luigi, and Jack Black voicing the role of Bowser.
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While Spider-Man: No Way Home is still far from finished at the box office, the mega-hit has finally been overtaken on our theater count list. The film currently enjoys a worldwide total of over $1.7 billion. This week however ushers in two new wide releases in jackass forever and Moonfall, arriving in 3,604 and 3,446 locations respectively.
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Kat Valdez is half of the sexiest celebrity power couple on Earth with hot new music supernova Bastian. As Kat and Bastian’s inescapable hit single, “Marry Me,” climbs the charts, they are about to be wed before an audience of their fans in a ceremony that will streamed across multiple platforms. But, on learning her on-stage partner has been having an affair behind her back, Kat decides to marry a stranger, math teacher Charlie Gilbert, who is holding a “Marry Me” sign by accident at her live concert.
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After premiering at the Toronto International Film Festival last month and rolling out in 36 international markets, Dune has finally reached domestic theaters. The feature adaptation of Frank Herbert’s 1965 sci-fi novel showcases an all-star ensemble cast that includes Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson and Jason Momoa, among others. The film, directed by Denis Villeneuve, has a budget of $165m will open in an estimated 4,000 theaters, including IMAX locations and streaming via HBO Max. Dune has scored just over $116 million internationally.
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The box office was mostly as expected during November. Granted, Thor: Ragnarok over-performed and Justice League underperformed, but overall there were no real surprises. This means the month started slow, but we got a couple of wins in the end and that bodes well going into the final month of the year. That said, December is a weird month. There are five weekends, but only seven films that I’m sure are opening truly wide. Additionally, five of those seven films are opening Christmas weekend. I’ve never seen a month this lop-sided. There are no real wide releases the first two weeks of the month, so we will likely start slow again, but when The Last Jedi debuts, we should see explosive growth at the box office. It will open with more than any film last December made and that should help 2017 cut into 2016’s lead. 2017 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but the month could do well enough to cut 2016’s lead to under $250 million. That’s my goal. If that happens, I will be happy.
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Cars is inarguably the weak link in the Pixar canon. Cars was the first Pixar film that I didn’t think was an instant classic, while Cars 2 is still the only Pixar movie that earned bad reviews. Can Cars 3 break this streak? Or is it still the weak link?
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October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point.
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May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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Kubo and the Two Strings came out in the late summer and struggled at the box office, despite its nearly unanimously positive reviews. It wasn’t a bomb and was better than most Stop-Motion animated films at the box office, but that still meant it wasn’t seen by many moviegoers. Should it be seen by more? Or will it only appeal to the niche market fans of this animation style?
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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Zoolander came out in 2001. It wasn't beloved by critics and wasn't a major hit in theaters, but did well enough on the home market to develop a loyal following. Zoolander 2 hit theaters earlier this year and failed to live up to its predecessor at the box office. Is this because its target audience had forgotten about the first film? Or did it fail at the box office, because it was just really bad?
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As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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Straight Outta Compton will win a third weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, but it won’t be without a struggle. The biopic lost on Friday to War Room, a faith-based film that opened in just 1,135 theaters, and the weekend race will finish with just a couple of million dollars between the two films, with Compton’s $13.2 million edging out War Room’s $11 million. Compton now has $134 million in the bank, making it the fifth-highest-grossing biographical film after American Sniper ($350 million), Lincoln ($182 million), A Beautiful Mind ($170 million), and Catch Me if You Can ($165 million). If you’re playing the Oscars game at home already, it’s worth noting that three of the four films above it received Best Picture nominations (Catch Me if You Can being the odd-one-out).
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Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb is the third film, and likely final film, in the Night at the Museum franchise. The previous two films were very profitable, but the films have never really won over critics. This film had the weakest run at the box office, but is it also the weakest in terms of quality?
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November is over and there are not a lot of positive things to say about what happened during the month. There were a couple of films that matched expectations, but there were no breakout hits and a few that missed expectations by wide margins. Granted, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 will top $300 million with relative ease, but that's still nearly $100 million lower than some people were predicting. The month ends with 2014 about $300 million behind 2013's pace and there's really no chance to catch up in December. That doesn't mean there are no films that will be worth watching in December. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies should at least earn $200 million, while $300 million is not out of the question. Additionally, there are several films that at least have a shot at $100 million at the box office, but not all will get there. At least this December and last December are on par with each other. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug topped $250 million while there were three others that topped $100 million. I think we will get the same result this month. Last year there were a lot more wide releases, but many of them bombed. I think this year the lack of competition will help more films reach their potential.
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October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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This week on the home market is... well... it's short. Last week, according to Amazon.com, there were 459 new releases or reissues. This week there are 161. Fortunately, there are a few releases of note, including The Conjuring, which pulled in more than $300 million worldwide on a production budget of just $20 million. Fortunately, it really deserved this success and the DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack are contenders for Pick of the Week. Other contenders include Before Midnight on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and The Way Way Back on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. In the end, it was literally a coin toss and The Conjuring won.
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The first weekend in June is also the slowest weekend in June as far as wide releases go. Neither The Internship nor The Purge are likely to become more than midlevel hits. Even so, one of them should finish in first place, ending Fast and Furious 6's two-week run on top. Last year there were two major releases, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted and Prometheus earned more than $50 million during their opening weekend. Neither new release will match that figure. They won't make that much combined over the weekend.
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May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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When the Pixar Short Film Collection, Volume 1 came out five years ago, I was super excited. Not only do I love Pixar's theatrical release, but I like short films in general and there are so few places to get them. I'm less excited about volume 2, because Pixar has been releasing its short films on DVD and Blu-ray, so if you have been keeping up with their releases, you have this already. But, is there more to this release than just the short films?
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