This graph shows Jared Leto’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
After a gigantic debut for Spider-Man: No Way Home and a pandemic-record-setting start for Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Sony is looking for a super hero three-peat this weekend with the release of Morbius. While another number one opening is guaranteed, we’re not looking at quite the same kind of numbers this time around, with our model predicting an opening weekend in the $41-million range.
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Heading into Thanksgiving weekend, three new wide releases catapult into theaters with Wednesday arrivals. The largest of the three is Encanto. Directed by Byron Howard and Jared Bush, and with original songs written by Lin-Manuel Miranda, Encanto opens in 3,980 locations. Coming in next is the biographical crime drama, House of Gucci, directed by Ridley Scott and starring an ensemble cast of top level Hollywood actors, including Jared Leto, Adam Driver, Jeremy Irons, Lady Gaga, and Al Pacino. House of Gucci is set to release in 3,441 theaters. Lastly, Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City in 2,803 cinemas. The $25 million action horror reboot stars Kaya Scodelario and is directed by 47 Meters Down and 47 Meters Down: Uncaged helmer, Johannes Roberts.
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This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.
It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.
There’s precious little good news in the theatrical market as we start 2021. Although Wonder Woman 1984 had a relatively good opening weekend after its launch on Christmas Day, it declined steeply at the box office last weekend, and the combined earnings for all films reporting is only a shade over $10 million right now. Unfortunately, there are only two films scheduled to open wide in the whole month of January, which means we won’t see much of an improvement in the market, and likely some back sliding, particularly given the growing COVID-19 case counts and the high likelihood of continued restrictions on public gatherings around North America.
The (slow) rollout of a vaccine is the one piece of good news, but it’s unlikely to have much of an effect on the things for several months. For now, here’s what’s in store for January…
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Dangerously ill with a rare blood disorder, and determined to save others suffering his same fate, Dr. Morbius attempts a desperate gamble. What at first appears to be a radical success soon reveals itself to be a remedy potentially worse than the disease.
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After Superman Returns struggled at the box office and The Dark Knight became a surprise $1 billion hit, the folks at Warner Bros. decided to reboot the D.C. movies as D.C. Extended Universe using the dark and gritty style of the Dark Knight Trilogy. That hasn’t worked out so far. Man of Steel barely broke even and the mixed reviews made a few people worried about the franchise’s future. The dour interpretation of Superman didn’t work and the editing and pacing was a mess, but at least it had an interesting villain. Batman v Superman was terrible and had one of the worst villains of any comic book movie I’ve seen. When that film was eviscerated by the critics, Warner Bros. stepped in and made last minute changes to Suicide Squad. Did it work? Nope. But is it better than BvS?
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July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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In the March update to our Bankability Index, our list of industry influencers increases to 14 people and we examine the top actors and actresses in dramatic roles in movies.
This month's new entry is Morgan Freeman, who got a very handy boost from his voice role in The LEGO Movie, and was also helped by some work we did on our archive of credits. That combination takes him to 14th on the Worldwide Chart, up 3 places from February.
All this activity has kept us pretty busy, but it's our new Bankability feature that really kept us burning the midnight oil this month: The Bankability Index Casting and Hiring Guides...
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The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there were nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen.
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It's a very impressive week at the top of the new DVD and Blu-ray releases. There's not one, but two $200 million hits coming out this week. Likewise, there are not one, but two major Awards Season hits coming out as well. One film, Gravity, is in both groups. All three films, Gravity, Thor: The Dark World, and Nebraska, are all contenders for Pick of the Week. Gravity is the only one I didn't get a chance to review, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack or the 3D Combo Pack are clearly the Pick of the Week. It's an amazing movie and the Blu-ray releases are loaded with extras.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. This is one of the least competitive races this year. One actor has consistently pulled in win after win and I would be shocked if Oscar night wasn't the same.
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Dallas Buyers Club is widely considered a favorite to win at least one Oscar and it has a shot at becoming the big winner come Oscar night. Needless to say, my expectations for the film are really high. I'm hoping they are not unrealistically high. Is this the case? Or is the movie as good as its critically acclaim?
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SAG handed out their awards last night, and while there were not many surprises, there was one major upset, at least in my mind. Dallas Buyers Club led the way with two wins, making it the new Oscar favorite.
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The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was.
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Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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Independent Spirit Award started the Awards Season this week, handing out its nominations. 12 Years a Slave led the way with seven nominations, but it wasn't the only film to pick up multiple nominations.
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After last week's short list, there are nearly 20 films on this week's list. Because of this, each entry will be shorter than usual. There are a few films on this week's list that seem destined for mainstream success, including Dallas Buyers Club, which could net Matthew McConaughey some Awards Season hardware.
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