This graph shows Elle Fanning’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
There are several interesting new releases on the streaming platforms this week. The biggest of these is Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, which debuted on Disney+ on Friday. The latest stand-up comic special by Patton Oswalt, I Love Everything, hits Netflix on Tuesday, and I bet it will be great. There are also two TV shows worth checking out, The Great on Hulu and She-Ra and the Princesses of Power on Netflix.
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I loved the first Maleficent, certainly more than the average critic did. The sequel, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, earned even worse reviews and struggled at the box office. Are these results fair? Or should this film have also performed as well at the box office as the first film did?
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It is a slow week on the home market, as Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is the only first run release. There are several horror films that are selling well enough to be worth talking about, but that is all. As far as the best of the best are concerned, the two I’m most interested in and I put in requests for screeners for both are BlacKkKlansman and Incredibles 2, but they are only coming out on VOD this week. I don’t like handing out Pick of the Week titles to VOD releases, so the real race is between The Americans: The Complete Final Season and Made In Abyss: Season One. Both are worth picking up, but I think there will be a full series Megaset for The Americans, so I’m giving the title to Made In Abyss.
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Every week, I have to decide which limited releases to talk about in the main list of this column. Usually I limit myself to those with double-digit reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Last week, there were so few limited releases to talk about, I included some that I wouldn’t normally include. This week, there are about 30 films coming out in limited release, so I have to be extra judicious and cut some films just to keep the list manageable. Unfortunately, it feels like a case of quantity over quality. There are some movies that are getting excellent reviews, but a lot of movies that had strong pre-release buzz are disappointing critically. There are some I’m interested in, like I Think We’re Alone Now, but that’s more for the cast than the reviews. Mandy is one of the best films, but it is playing on Video on Demand, so I don’t expect it will do well at the box office. There are also several documentaries, with Science Fair being the one I want to see the most.
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2001: A Space Odyssey remained in first place on the theater average chart with $24,810 in four theaters. The number one film, Solo: A Star Wars Movie, was next with an average of $19,270. The Gospel According to Andre earned an average of $11,951 in four theaters. First Reformed remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,064 in 29 theaters during its second weekend of release.
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It is a slow week, both in terms of total releases and in terms of quality releases. The Gospel According to Andre and Summer 1993 are both earning great reviews, but will likely be relegated to the art house circuit. The film with the best chance of box office success is Who We Are Now, but even then it has an uphill battle.
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July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
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When The Neon Demon was first screened at the Cannes Film Festival, it earned a lot of praise including a standing ovation... also people booed the film, while there have been plenty of reports of people walking out of the movie. You rarely see such a divergent opinion on a film and that made me very intrigued. Will I love the film? Will I hate it? Will I be one of the few people who were indifferent?
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The Boxtrolls was a September release that earned good reviews, especially for a September release. However, it failed to meet expectations at the box office. On the other hand, it has done very well with Awards Season voters. Is it as bad as its box office would indicate? Is it as good as its Oscar nomination would indicate? Or is it somewhere in-between?
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Maleficent opened this past summer earning mixed reviews, but was a massive hit at the box office earning just over $750 million worldwide. Was the film better than the reviews would indicate? Or was it just a really slow summer so there wasn't a lot of competition?
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Last weekend, Birdman opened with Oscar-worthy reviews and it wasn't the only film that was expected to be a hit at the box office. This weekend, there are no such films. CitizenFour and Force Majeure are both earning Oscar buzz, but one's a documentary and the other is a foreign-language film, so neither are likely to expand significantly. This leaves Laggies as the film with the loudest buzz, even if its reviews suggest it might not thrive in limited release.
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August was a great month, it is as simple as that. Not only did Guardians of the Galaxy break records, but Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was a surprise hit as well. These early gains led to an extended winning streak in the year-over-year comparison. Granted, 2014 is still more than $300 million behind 2013, but this is substantially less than the gap was before the month. Can September maintain this run? I'm not sure. Last September was strong compared to most Septembers with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 earning more than $100 million while Insidious Chapter 2 came relatively close. This year, there likely won't be any $100 million hits, but I think The Equalizer should at least come close. Meanwhile, there are some who think The Maze Runner will be the biggest hit of the month, but I'm not among them. There have been too many similar releases that have struggled to think this one will be a hit. I think September will get off to a terrible start, but overall I think it will be close to last year.
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It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013.
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Hayao Miyazaki is one of the best animators working today, if not they best. He's created a number of masterpieces and even his weaker efforts are worth watching again and again. Recently two of his films were released on Blu-ray, Howl's Moving Castle and My Neighbor Totoro. The screeners arrived a little late, but I finally got to the reviews this week. Where do they fit in Hayao Miyazaki's filmography? And are they worth picking up?
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It is a pretty busy week for limited releases with a number of them that could do well. Blancanieves should do well in art house cinemas, but it is too out there for mainstream success. Likewise, From Up on Poppy Hill should draw in fans of Anime, but there are not enough of them to allow the film to expand significantly. Ginger and Rosa has more appeal to mainstream audiences and strong buzz, but its reviews are only good and not great. Spring Breakers is also earning reviews that are good, but not great. However, it has a planned wide opening next week, so unless that falls apart, it will be the biggest hit on this week's list.
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