This graph shows Joey King’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Like last week, two new wide releases grace movie theaters across North America this weekend in the form of the violent action-comedy Bullet Train, and holiday comedy, Easter Sunday. Opening in 4,317 theaters, Bullet Train is directed by David Leitch and contains a large ensemble cast, led by Brad Pitt as an experienced but unlucky assassin named “Ladybug”. Co-starring with Pitt is Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, and Andrew Koji among others. The Japanese-set film which is based on Kōtarō Isaka’s dark novel “MariaBeetle” will be available on both traditional and IMAX screens. Easter Sunday, which will debut in 3,175 locations, stars Jo Koy as a man who returns home for an Easter celebration with his riotous, bickering, eating, drinking, laughing, loving family.
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Robert Redford’s swan song, The Old Man and the Gun, leads a group of limited releases this week. It should be the biggest hit on this week’s list and could even become an Awards Season contender. Bad Reputation could also open really well, for a documentary.
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The Meg earned $4 million during its Thursday previews. This is about double what I was expecting and puts it on a clear path to over $30 million during its opening weekend. It will likely be front-loaded, as the reviews are barely above 50% positive and this genre of film tends to be front-loaded, even with good reviews. That said, it could match Annabelle: Creation’s opening from last year with just over $35 million. We will know more tomorrow when Friday’s estimates come in. The film also reportedly earned $16 million during its opening day in China, earning third place in the process. It’s going to be a busy weekend in China if a $16 million opening day is only good enough for third place.
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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Wish Upon could go down in history as the movie that ended Broad Green Pictures production division. That’s not fair, as the film earned more domestically than it cost to make and only one other film they produced and distributed can make the same claim. The film didn’t ruin their production division. It was just the most recent film to come out when the decision was announced. Does the film deserve this infamy? Or is it a decent horror movie saddled with some bad luck?
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I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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PANIC! If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, it is officially time to panic. Personally, I got the last of my shopping done on Wednesday, although I don't think the gift will arrive in time for Christmas. For those still looking for a last minute gift, Part IV of our Holiday Gift Guide focuses on books, CDs, and of course anything else I missed the first time around, beginning with...
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Gravity opened in first place on the international chart with $28.4 million on 4,830 screens in 27 markets. This includes a number of first place openings, led by Russia, where it made $7.57 million on 1,219 screens. It also earned first place in Germany with $3.65 million on 569 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.87 million. Australia was right behind with $3.35 million on 469. Italy contributed $2.75 million on 399, while in Spain it earned $2.26 million on 325.
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For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
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