Weekend predictions: Venom set to hold off Here as election distraction peaks

November 1, 2024

Here

This weekend sees another bevy of wide releases come to theaters, but only one that has its sights set on the top three. That film is Here, a cinematic reunion for Robert Zemeckis, Tom Hanks, and Robin Wright. Unfortunately, things aren’t looking that great for Here, with a spot in the top three not assured and Venom: The Last Dance not going to be troubled in its second weekend in theaters, even with a sharp decline.

Here’s the model’s original take on Here:

The star power for this film is formidable, and an opening around $15 million leading to a total somewhere North of $50 million would seem like a good bet on paper. The weakness of the theatrical market right now really pulls down our prediction though, as does a relatively small number of theaters on opening weekend.

The previews point towards the film struggling to get close to $10 million…

With poor reviews, a $5-million opening isn’t guaranteed for Here, and $6 million or maybe $7 million would be the goal.

Two other films have announced theater counts, and are opening wide enough, for our model to have a prediction for the weekend. First up, Absolution, starring Liam Neeson.

Neeson used to be one of the most reliable box office draws in the business, but his star has dimmed a little over the past couple of years. Audience tracking doesn’t look great for this film, and the weakness of the market adds to the sense that it will open quietly.

The biggest wildcard this weekend is probably Hitpig.

This animated comedy-adventure is the widest release so far for Viva Pictures. The Amazing Maurice opened with $1.46 million in February last year, and that will be the benchmark for Hitpig. Its reviews are good, and it might be good counter-programming for families looking for something not too Halloween-themed over Halloween weekend. It might be able to break higher than $1.5 million, but this is a challenging film to predict.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

The theatrical market is suffering from a severe case of electionitis at the moment. That might clear up on Tuesday or Wednesday if we have a clear winner in the presidential election, but there’s a good chance the market will remain suppressed for at least a couple more weeks.

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Absolution, Venom: The Last Dance, Here, Hitpig, Tom Hanks, Liam Neeson, Robin Wright, Robert Zemeckis