Weekend predictions: The Boy and the Heron, and Songbirds and Snakes; and Beyoncé, and Godzilla

December 8, 2023

The Boy and the Heron

The movie gods have put together another mix of interesting, but hard to predict, new releases this weekend, led by Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron. After the success of the rather different Godzilla Minus One last weekend, Japanese films are having a bit of a moment, and those two will likely both be in the top four by the end of the weekend. Where they land exactly is a little harder to predict.

Here’s our model’s baseline prediction for The Boy and the Heron:

Anime films have become well established in theaters over the past few years, but it’s a while since one of Miyazaki’s movies opened in wide release here. The last film he directed that did so was Ponyo back in 2009, although he was also the screenwriter for 2012’s Arrietty. Both of those films landed in the $15 million to $20 million range here, and the model expected The Boy and the Heron to do about the same.

The preview numbers point to it doing somewhat better:

This is another weekend where the preview numbers may be deceiving, but something over $10 million looks pretty likely at this point. $14 million should give it a comfortable weekend win.

There are two other movies that our model flexed its muscles on for this weekend. Neither is expected to reach the top 10, but they are interesting in their own right.

First, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things, starring Emma Stone.

Like Lanthimos’ previous creations, this is a one-of-a-kind film, and will likely be heavily featured in annual Best Of lists in the next few weeks, not to mention pick up an award or three. It’s opening in just nine theaters, but the model thinks it’ll play to packed houses this weekend and expand significantly over the next month or so.

It’ll be a while before we know exactly where this one will finish up, but the model thinks $25 million or so is a good bet.

The final film with a deep-dive analysis this weekend is Mormon faith-based film The Oath.

This is another one that’s hard to predict, but it probably doesn’t have the footprint, advertising, or reviews, to get much more than $1 million this weekend. Something less than that is a distinct possibility, but it is getting quite a bit of audience interest—as of this moment, it’s the most anticipated movie here on The Numbers, for example. It could yet surprise.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Note that the model doesn’t think Poor Things or The Oath will hit the top 10. However, it is predicting a top 10 finish for the re-release of Die Hard, which returns in 1,355 theaters this weekend. Love Actually is also getting a wide re-release this weekend, in 923 theaters, and is predicted to earn $2.34 million and end in 11th. Oppenheimer also expands back wide again this weekend. We don’t have a prediction for that, but it certainly could find its way into the top 10 too.

In all, about 15 films should $1 million this weekend. With only a couple likely to top $10 million, the box office dollars will be spread far and wide. Although we’re looking at a fairly modest weekend overall, there’s certainly something for everyone in theaters right now.

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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Die Hard, Love Actually, The Oath, The Boy and the Heron (君たちはどう生きるか), Godzilla Minus One (ゴジラ最新作), Poor Things, Hayao Miyazaki, Emma Stone, Yorgos Lanthimos