Weekend predictions: Missing won’t unseat Avatar from the top of the chart

January 20, 2023

Missing

Missing likely to meet expectations, but needing to do much better than that to conquer the current champion. Avatar will cruise past $2 billion globally this weekend and isn’t done yet.

First up, here’s how Way of Water stacks up compared to the films in our database that have performed most similarly (click on the image for a full interactive chart):

Our models came up with predictions of $28.5 million and $27.5 million for this weekend for Way of Water, and I’ve averaged those two numbers to produce a final official prediction of $26.6 million. It’s clearly still charging ahead and showing incredible legs. Our model now thinks it’ll finish with around $765 million domestically, down just a shade from the prediction coming out of last weekend ($770 million), and quite a bit from the $800+ million it saw as likely before the MLK weekend. That $35 million drop is a rounding error for a film that’s headed for over $2.5 billion worldwide though.

Missing is the latest film to go into the ring with Way of Water, and won’t come out at the top of the chart this weekend. It will, however, perform well enough to continue the franchise by the looks of things. Here’s what our model thought going into the weekend:

That prediction is holding up well based on the Thursday preview numbers:

$10 million is a very respectable debut for a film that reportedly cost just $7 million to make. It will certainly be enough to put the film in the top 5, and it could well land in the top 3.

The final new wide release this weekend is the elaborately-titled That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Scarlet Bond, from Crunchyroll.

Our model doesn’t distinguish between different anime franchises when predicting its opening weekend, instead relying on the fact that Crunchyroll has a consistent track record in releasing these films:

I suspect the prediction is on the high side in this case, based on our audience tracking. Hitting the top 10 with around $1.5 million is probably the goal for this niche title. As always, I defer to our model’s prediction though.

Here’s what that model thinks the top 10 as a whole will look like.

There could be an interesting battle for third place this weekend between Missing, Puss in Boots, and A Man Called Otto. My money’s on Missing coming out on top of that list, but A Man Called Otto could surprise on the upside thanks to strong word of mouth and the undeniable continued star power of Tom Hanks.

One things for sure: our streak of three straight weekends with a combined box office over $100 million for all films playing is coming to an end, probably until Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania arrives in a few weeks’ time.

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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, A Man Called Otto, Tom Hanks