December 29th, 2015
Another slow week on the home market, but not one without some top-notch releases. Blood And Black Lace on Blu-ray, I Believe in Unicorns on DVD, Shameless: Season 5 are all excellent. However, Bone Tomahawk on Blu-ray is the clear choice for Pick of the Week.
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September 15th, 2015
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Both of the two true wide releases had amazing openings this past week. Or to be more specific, amazing openings for a September release. The Perfect Guy did earn first place, but by less than half a million dollars over The Visit. Both films opened substantially above expectations. Thanks to this, the overall box office rose significantly, both compared to last week and compared to last year. The total box office was $102 million, which is 13% higher than last week. It is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year. September is already looking really good. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.65 million putting it 5.3% ahead of last year's pace of $7.26 million. 2015 is nearly $400 million head of 2014's pace and there's not a lot of time for 2015 to blow that lead. It wouldn't be impossible, but it is getting more and more unlikely.
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September 10th, 2015
There are two and a half wide releases coming out this week, led by The Perfect Guy. I think it will earn first place at the box office, but it isn't a sure thing. Up next is The Visit, which is the latest from M. Night Shyamalan. It has been a while since he had real drawing power at the box office. Finally there's 90 Minutes in Heaven, which is not expected to open truly wide, but wide enough to get into the top ten. This weekend last year was led by No Good Deed, which opened with $24.25 million. I don't think any new release will match that this year. There's a chance none of them will match Dolphin Tale 2. I'm cautiously optimistic that 2015 won't lose by a substantial amount, but if either of the two truly wide releases bomb, then the box office will be in real trouble.
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September 9th, 2015
While first trying to come up with picture / title ideas for the weekend columns, I saw the image above and was reminded of "Simply Irresistible" by Robert Palmer. Ever since then, the song has been stuck in my head. It's been there for more than 48 hours now and I'm starting to think I will need medical help getting rid of it. The overall box office was more or less in line with Friday's expectations. A Walk in the Woods matched predictions (nearly) perfectly, while The Transporter Refueled was on the low end of expectations. Fortunately, War Room showed off strong legs leaping into first place. It was able to help the overall box office grow 3.5% to $90 million over the three-day weekend. This was 38% higher than the same weekend last year; however, this is due to a misalignment of holidays. Compared to last labor day, the box office was 18% lower. With that, the summer of 2015 is officially over and while records were broken, the overall box office was actually the second best on record, falling just short of 2013 at $4.48 billion to $4.75 billion. Year-to-date, 2015 has a 5.3% lead over 2014 at $7.53 billion to $7.15 billion.
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September 6th, 2015
Summer, 2015 comes to a sedate finish this weekend, with The Transporter Refueled falling flat, and War Room moving to the top of the chart in its second weekend in release. The faith-based drama is expected to earn $9.3 million for the three-day portion of the weekend, comfortably clear of Straight Outta Compton’s $8.8 million in its fourth weekend. War Room will top the chart while playing in only 1,526 theaters, the fewest theaters for a number one film since the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour topped the chart from 683 theaters back in 2008 (see fewest theaters for number one movie since 2000).
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September 5th, 2015
As expected, The Transporter Refueled earned first place on Friday with $2.4 million. However, bad reviews will lead to a front-loaded weekend, so it won’t last there long. I think the best comparison is The Transporter 2, which was also released on Labor Day long weekend. That film opened with $5.57 million on the Friday, and earned $16.54 million / $20.10 million after three and four days respectively. If The Transporter Refueled had the same internal multiplier, it would make $7.1 million / $8.7 million. However, The Transporter 2 also earned better reviews, so it would be best to shave a few points off, to give The Transporter Refueled just under $7 million over the three day weekend and just over $8 million including Monday. That’s a disappointing start, even for a film that wasn’t expected to do well at the box office.
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September 4th, 2015
It's Labor Day long weekend, the weakest long weekend of the year. There are two films looking to grab spots in the top five, The Transporter Refueled and A Walk in the Woods. They will have to contend with Straight Outta Compton, but more importantly, they will have to compete with last chance outdoor activities. This weekend last year, the best new release was The Identical, which is one of the biggest bombs of all time. We won't have a repeat of that this year, so hopefully fall can start on a winning note.
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September 1st, 2015
As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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