June 5th, 2012
After a major change on the back end of site, we have two weeks of home market numbers to get to, starting with the week ending on May 20th. New releases dominated the chart taking the top three spots and four of the top six. The Grey earned first place with 360,000 units / $6.12 million. This is a fine start given its theatrical run, but not an exceptional one.
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May 23rd, 2012
The same four new releases that charted on the DVD sales chart also charted on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, with just one addition. (And that one addition is actually related to the top film.) Leading the way was Underworld: Awakening, which earned $11.77 million from 590,000 units sold. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 56%, which is becoming commonplace for action films.
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May 23rd, 2012
There was a weird mix of new releases and ancient holdovers on the top of the DVD sales chart this week. (Maybe "ancient" is overstating things.) Leading the way was The Vow with an impressive opening week sales of 810,000 units / $13.76 million. Given its domestic box office numbers, this is a great start and it is likely already profitable.
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May 16th, 2012
We are in the slowest time of year on the home market, and it is really showing on the Blu-ray sales chart. There were only three new releases to place on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, and only one of them earned a respectable opening week Blu-ray share. Haywire opened in first place with 185,000 units / $3.69 million giving it a Blu-ray share of 49%. That's a solid percentage for a film that struggled to find an audience in theaters.
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May 7th, 2012
It's yet another very slow week on the home market. Boy, I feel like a broken record saying that every week, but it is true. It's especially true this week, as I'm having trouble picking out any release that is worth of Pick of the Week. In the end I went with a Doctor Who release. There are three of them coming out this week, but Story 153: The Happiness Patrol is the only one that is truly good, as opposed to the other two, which are weak installments that have a few fans that defend them.
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February 28th, 2012
There was a surprise winner at the box office this weekend as Act of Valor opened on the very high end of expectations while Good Deeds did the opposite. Overall, more films missed expectations than met them and this led to a 14% drop-off from last week. However, the total haul of $134 million was still 23% higher than the same weekend last year, which stretches the winning streak to eight weeks. Or to put it another way, every single weekend this year has been higher than the corresponding weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of last year's pace by 18% at $1.62 billion to $1.38 billion. There is some bad news going forward, as I don't think March 2012 is as strong as March 2011.
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February 23rd, 2012
While this weekend is one of the most important weekends of the year for movies, it's not because of the films in theaters. Oscar weekend is generally not a good time to release a film, as a lot of fans will be distracted. To emphasize that, there are four films opening wide this weekend, but three of them are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters. Expectations for most films are in the mid teens, or lower, and there's a chance that no film will come close to $20 million over the weekend. Obviously this is not good news; however, this weekend last year was a disaster as Hall Pass led the way with just $13.54 million. There's a chance that every film in the top five will earn more than that this year. Granted, that's on the optimistic side of expectations, but even the low end of expectations has 2012 continuing its streak.
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February 22nd, 2012
No films topped $10,000 on the per theaters chart; in fact, none of them come close. The Vow came closest with an average of $7,798. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance was the best new release at an average of $6,968, while the best new limited release was Undefeated at $6,633.
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February 21st, 2012
Two of the three wide releases missed expectations and the best of the bunch, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, only managed third place over the weekend. However, the overall box office still pulled out a win in the year-over-year comparison. The box office did fall 19% from last weekend to $156 million, but this was 8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is much more important. The lead over last year grew to over $200 million at $1.46 billion to $1.23 billion, or 18%. Granted, it is still too early to celebrate, but so far the year-over-year numbers are fantastic while next weekend it looks even better.
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February 19th, 2012
A tight battle is brewing for box office honors this weekend, based on the studios' Sunday estimates. Safe House is currently ahead, with Universal predicting a $24 million 3-day weekend. The Vow runs in second place with $23.6 million according to Sony, which also has Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in third place with $22 million. Adding to the uncertainty, the most family-friendly film in the top ten, Journey 2: Mysterious Island is only a few million back, with Warner Bros. projecting it will make $20.1 million through Sunday. Overall, it looks as though Safe House will win both the 3-day and 4-day races, although Journey 2 could win Monday.
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February 16th, 2012
We enter Presidents Day long weekend with a substantial lead on 2011. (Although we are way behind 2010's and even 2009's pace. I choose to focus on the positive.) There are some good signs going into this weekend. Depending on who you talk to, there are two or three films that could hit $20 million over the three-day weekend and five or six that could reach $10 million. The best new release of the week, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could make more than $30 million over three days and $40 million over four. There is some bad news, as this weekend last year was also pretty potent with six films earning more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. However, 2012 has better strength at the top, which should help it earn yet another win.
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February 15th, 2012
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island climbed into first place with $30.0 million on 8,580 screens in 30 markets for a total of $79.20 million. To put this into perspective, its predecessor made $140 million in total, which is a figure this film could match, even if it didn't have any additional markets left to open in. Its biggest opening this weekend was in China where it earned $9.5 million, while it was also a big hit in Russia with $6.97 million on 1,021 screens. The film debuts in France and Spain this weekend, and has yet to open in Italy, Germany, Japan, and other markets.
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February 14th, 2012
Chico and Rita started its run on top of the per theater chart with $21,400 in one theater. Given its reviews and its Oscar nomination, it should have no trouble expanding at least somewhat. The overall number one film, The Vow, was in second place on the per theater chart with an average of $13,929. Safe House was close behind with $12,880. It's not too common for wide releases to earn more than $10,000 on the per theater chart at this time of year, so to have two of them do so on the same weekend is doubly impressive. The final film in the $10,000 club was Rampart with an average of $12,089. Like Chico and Rita it should expand for similar reasons. (I.E. Strong reviews and major nominations.)
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February 13th, 2012
Another weekend, another win. For the sixth weekend in a row, 2012 has topped 2011 in the year-over-year, and like much of the year, it wasn't even close. The overall box office was up 66% from last weekend reaching $192 million. It was also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. All four wide releases beat expectations, sometimes by wide margins. Also, all earned more than $20 million, which is the first time that's happened on a non-holiday weekend. And two of them earned $40 million or more. Year-to-date, 2012 now has a 19% lead on 2011 at $1.19 billion to $1.00 billion. There is reason to be cautious however, as a lot of this growth is due to 2011 getting off to a disastrous start. It is still too soon to declare victory, but it is reason to at least be somewhat optimistic.
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February 12th, 2012
The industry's good start to 2012 gained some more momentum this weekend as all four new releases performed at or beyond expectations. The Vow will lead the way, based on Sony's projection, with $41.7 million, which is a little less than 2010's Valentine's Day, although that film had the advantage of both Valentine's Day itself, and a four-day weekend. Safe House will open with around $39.3 million for Universal, which will be the studio's best opening since Fast Five in April of last year. Journey 2: Mysterious Island is set for $27.55 million, according to Warner Bros., and Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace will pick up $23 million or so for Fox. That foursome will ensure a record is set this weekend: for the first time, four films will open with over $20 million on a non-holiday weekend.
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February 9th, 2012
2012 has beaten 2011 every single weekend so far and we could see that streak survive at least one more weekend thanks to three wide releases: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, Safe House, and The Vow, plus a re-release, Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace. That's a crowded slate and normally I would assume one or more of the films would be squeezed out at the box office, but now I'm not so sure, as even the weakest amongst them is tracking for close to $20 million. By comparison, this weekend last year three films earned more than $25 million and only one new release failed to connect with audiences. So it could be a tough race, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
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February 1st, 2012
2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start.
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