Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2020 Awards Season: Oscars Winners and Reactions

February 10th, 2020

The Oscars were handed out last night and unlike most years, I wasn’t able to live-blog the awards. This is a real shame, because it was one of the best Oscar nights I can remember and there were very few awards that made me legitimately angry, unlike many years in the past. There was even a surprise winner for the full night, as Parasite earned the most wins with four Oscars. It is incredibly rare for a foreign-language film to pull off that feat. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Animated Film

February 3rd, 2020

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Due to a compressed Oscar schedule, and the monthly preview, I have to get all ten Oscar highlight stories done this week, continuing with best Feature-Length Animated Film. We do have a favorite in this category; spoiler warning, it’s the Pixar film. However, we could also have an upset and it wouldn’t be the most shocking twist of Oscar night. More...

2020 Awards Season: Oscar Nominations

January 13th, 2020

The Oscar nominations were announced on Monday, and the results were... well, there were some puzzling results. Joker led the way with eleven nominations. ... A film with 69% positive reviews earned the most nominations. It’s not the worst-reviewed movie to earn a Best Picture Nomination—after all, Bohemian Rhapsody was nominated just last year. However, this film is arguably the worst-reviewed movie to ever earn the most nominations in a single year. More...

2020 Awards Season: Golden Globes Nominations

December 11th, 2019

The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods. More...

2019 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets

November 27th, 2019

It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless. More...

Home Market Releases for October 8th, 2019

October 10th, 2019

It’s another week with a monster hit and nearly nothing else. Fortunately, that monster hit is Toy Story 4, which is easily the Pick of the Week and would be during all but the best weeks of the year. Midsommar comes close to being a contender for Pick of the Week, but the extras are well below average, even compared to a limited release. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Toy Story 4

October 7th, 2019

Toy Story 3 gave the franchise such a perfect send off that when Toy Story 4 was first announced it was met with a lot of trepidation. Most assumed it would be impossible to live up to its predecessor and many were worried it would fail at that task so much that it would retroactively make the franchise worse. Was it able to do the impossible? If not, was it at least able to avoid being a disaster? More...

Home Market Releases for October 1st, 2019

October 3rd, 2019

It’s a great week for home market releases with a couple of monster hits coming out. Spider-Man: Far From Home was already named Pick of the Week when it came out on VOD and the DVD / Blu-ray / 4K lives up to that title. Meanwhile, Toy Story 4 is the best release of the week, but it is only coming out on VOD and I don’t like giving the Pick of the Week title to VOD releases. This leaves Maiden and That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Season One, Part 1 as the Pick of the Week contenders. It is a close race, but the latter has better extras on its Blu-ray and that was the tiebreaker. More...

International Box Office: Hollywood Goes Global

August 21st, 2019

Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood started its international run in earnest with $48.53 million over the three-day weekend, $55.22 million including previews and weekdays. It was playing on 10,054 screens in 59 markets and has a running tally of $65.44 million after two weeks of release. Its biggest market of the weekend was either France or the U.K., depending on how you look at it. In the former, it earned first place with $7.08 million on 683 screens. It also opened in first place in the latter with $6.22 million on 708 screens over the weekend, and had a total opening of $9.16 million. It also had strong openings in Germany ($5.06 million on 820 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.82 million); Australia ($4.52 million on 299 screens); and Spain ($2.41 million on 869 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.63 million). More...

International Box Office: Nezha is Not Going Away

August 14th, 2019

Nezha remains the top draw in its native China and internationally. This weekend, it pulled in $68.97 million for a total of $512.19 million after nearly four full weeks of release. This doesn’t just make the movie the highest-grossing animated film in China, it more than doubles the previous record set by Zootopia. Additionally, it has entered the top five all-time in China, in local currencies, and will soon climb into fourth place over Operation Red Sea. More...

International Box Office: Hobbs and Shaw Fall Short of Nezha

August 8th, 2019

Nezha continued to grow in China, earning $128.49 million over the weekend, which was not only the best film in China, but the biggest movie internationally. Furthermore, the film has earned $342.33 million, putting it ahead of Zootopia as the biggest animated film of all time in that market. And it didn’t just tiptoe ahead of the competition. Nezha is over $100 million above Zootopia in China. I really hope it gets a release here, as not enough Chinese movies are seen outside of Asia. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Hobbs and Shaw Stumble Out of the Gate

August 7th, 2019

It was a mixed weekend at the box office with Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw missing lofty expectations by a huge margin and this left the box office 8.4% lower than last weekend at $149 million. More importantly, this was 6.9% higher than the same weekend last year. 2019 closed the gap between it and last year a little bit and it is now down by 6.2% or $460 million at $6.96 billion to $7.42 billion. Unfortunately, we really needed a much faster start from Hobbs and Shaw to have a good month, so this might be as good as it gets until September. More...

Weekend Estimates: Hobbs and Shaw’s International Numbers Save Weekend Haul

August 4th, 2019

Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw missed even the low end of predictions with an estimated opening weekend of just $60.8 million. This is not a good start for a film that cost $200 million to make. Additionally, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore do not suggest long enough legs to make up for this opening. Fortunately, the film is doing a lot better internationally with an estimated opening of $120 million in 63 markets. Furthermore, this number doesn’t include China, because the film doesn’t open there until the end of the month. (It has also yet to open in France, Italy, and Japan, but it will earn more in China than those three markets combined.) The film is opening well behind The Fate of the Furious in most markets, including Russia where it managed $8.20 million on 1,766 screens, compared to $14.26 million on 1,470 screens for the previous film. It was even worse in the U.K. at $7.85 million in 610 theaters vs. $17.58 million on 572. Overall, the film is more in line with Fast Five than the other recent films in the franchise. This is still enough to earn a profit, especially if it does well in China, but the spin-off won’t replace the main films in the Fast and the Furious franchise like I thought it had a chance of doing. More...

Friday Estimates: Hobbs and Shaw has an Impossible Start

August 3rd, 2019

Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is going to miss predictions, but it did bounce back from weak previews with $23.72 million on Friday. This is higher than Mission: Impossible—Fallout managed during its opening day, despite worse preview numbers. This bodes well for the film’s legs. Its reviews are slightly better than the previous installment in the Fast and the Furious franchise, while its A minus from CinemaScore is a little weaker. Universal is projecting a $60 million opening weekend after this result, but studios tend to underestimate these things so it looks like their movies over-performed in the end, so I think $61 million or $62 million is more likely. More...

Weekend Predictions: How Fast can Hobbs and Shaw Start?

August 1st, 2019

It’s the first weekend of August and we have the last potential monster hit of the summer debuting. Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw is the first spin-off in the Fast and the Furious franchise. A lot of people think it will perform weaker at the box office than the other recent films in the franchise, but I think they are underestimating the box office appeal of Dwayne Johnson. Holdovers will be led by The Lion King and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, both of which should still be major factors at the box office. This weekend last year, Mission: Impossible—Fallout and Christopher Robin combined for just under $60 million. Even throwing in The Spy Who Dumped Me and the top three barely pass $70 million. Hobbs and Shaw should earn more than that by itself, giving 2018 a very strong win in the year-over-year competition. More...

International Box Office: Lion King Remains Top Dog

July 31st, 2019

The Lion King remained in first place on the international chart earning $142.8 million in 53 markets for totals of $611.9 million internationally and $962.7 million worldwide. The film’s only opening this weekend was in Hong Kong, where it earned $2.0 million opening in first place. The film has yet to open in Italy and Japan, so it will have no trouble getting to $1 billion before it finishes its international run. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Once Upon a Time has a Fairy Tale Start

July 30th, 2019

It was a mixed weekend at the box office with Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood becoming Quentin Tarantino’s biggest opening film in his career, but The Lion King falling much faster than expected. The overall box office was down 38% from last weekend, hitting $162 million. However, this was 4.1% more than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important result. 2019 is still behind 2018 by a 6.4% or $460 million margin at $6.73 billion to $7.19 billion, but at this point, I will celebrate any victory, no matter how small. More...

Weekend Estimates: Hollywood Can’t Tame Lion King

July 28th, 2019

As expected, The Lion King is easily topping the box office chart this weekend. Unfortunately, it is doing so despite falling much faster than expected, down 61% to an estimated $75.52 million during its third weekend of release for a running tally of $350.78 million. Fortunately, it could still be on pace to reach $500 million domestically, while it earned $142.8 million internationally for totals of $611.9 million internationally and $962.7 million worldwide. It will reach $1 billion shortly, making it yet another profitable disappointment. We’ve had too many of those this year, but I guess it is better than having these films lose money. More...

Friday Estimates: The Lion King Plummets, Hollywood Celebrates

July 27th, 2019

The Lion King had a decidedly un-family-friendly fall on Friday, earning $22.30 million. This is 71% lower than the film’s opening Friday and this is a terrible result for a family film. The movie will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but a 60% decline to about $76 million is much lower than our prediction. Granted, the movie will still make more than enough money to break even, but it will be yet another profitable disappointment. We’ve had far too many of those and not enough films matching their potential at the box office this year. More...

Weekend Predictions: Once Upon a Time at the Box Office

July 25th, 2019

Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood is Quentin Tarantino’s first film in four years and it is generating a ton of buzz. However, it is going up against The Lion King, which set records last weekend and has a slim chance at $100 million this weekend. Fortunately, the two films don’t share much of their respective target audiences, so they shouldn’t cannibalize each other at the box office too much. As a result, 2019 should easily beat the same weekend last year in the year-over-year competition. It is too soon to get excited about a potential comeback, but any victory is worth celebrating when you are this far behind. More...

International Box Office: Lion King has a Regal Expansion

July 24th, 2019

After an early start in China, The Lion King expanded nearly worldwide earning $269.4 million in 52 markets for two-week totals of $346.0 million internationally and $537.8 million worldwide. The film’s best new market was the U.K. at $20.84 million in 713 theaters, but France wasn’t too far behind at $19.6 million. It also had stellar starts in Mexico ($18.43 million) and Brazil ($17.9 million), as well as is in Russia ($17.06 million). Other major markets include Australia where it earned with $14.46 million over the weekend for a total opening of $17.43 million and in South Korea with $13.44 million over the weekend for a total opening of $17.45 million. The film has yet to open in Japan and Italy and it will be over $1 billion before it gets there. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Lion King Reigns Over July Record Book

July 23rd, 2019

The Lion King finished on the very high end of expectations opening with $191.77 million topping the previous July weekend record by well over $20 million. It also made more than the rest of the weekend box office combined, as the total weekend haul was $263 million. In fact, The Lion King made more than the entire box office made last weekend ($126 million) and this weekend last year ($172 million). Needless to say, there was strong growth both week-over-week at 109% and year-over-year at 53%. Granted, 2019 is still well back from 2018’s pace, down 7.1% or $490 million at $6.44 billion compared to $6.93 billion, but at least that gap is down significantly from where it was last week. More...

Weekend Estimates: Lion King is Deadly to the Competition, and the Record Book

July 21st, 2019

The Lion King is setting records this weekend with a projected opening of $185.0 million, destroying the previous July weekend record of $169.19 million, set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II. This is also the biggest opening for an animated film and biggest opening of any of Disney’s “live-action” remakes. Additionally, not only is the film getting off to a faster than expected start, it should have good legs. Granted, its reviews are mixed, but it is a family film and it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so that should help its longevity. Additionally, the next family film is Dora and the Lost City of Gold, which has only about a 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million in total. As for the film’s international numbers, it added $269.4 million in 52 markets to its early international total, which now sits at $346.0 million, while its worldwide total is already $531.0 million. The film didn’t set many records internationally, but it is earning the second-biggest opening weekend in Brazil with $17.9 million and in Russia at $16.7 million. This would have looked a lot more impressive had Endgame hadn’t set so many records earlier this year, but more on that in a bit. More...

Friday Estimates: Lion King Stampedes the Box Office with $78 million

July 20th, 2019

The Lion King was widely expected to be a monster hit; however, this year there have been countless potential monster hits that have missed expectations. There have been so many that I deemed it wise to be a little more pessimistic in my predictions to prevent being disappointed yet again. Turns out I didn’t need to worry, as the film earned $78 million on Friday. It wasn’t able to match the record for biggest July day; however, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II was the epitome of a Fanboy Film and had very short legs in theaters. The Lion King should have longer legs. Granted, its reviews won’t help, but it did earn an A from CinemaScore, so it is clear its target audience are a lot happier with the film. I still don’t think the legs will be great, but it should top the July weekend record with around $180 million. The industry needed this good news, and it doesn’t end there, as every other film in the top five either matched or exceeded expectations. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Lion King Live Up to the Hype?

July 18th, 2019

The Lion King has the weekend to itself and it is widely expected to have one of the biggest openings of the year. This is true, despite its mixed reviews. In fact, it should earn more during its opening day than the rest of the top five will earn combined over the full weekend. It should also easily earn more than the top five earned this weekend last year, giving 2019 a rare win in the year-over-year competition. More...

International Box Office: Spider-Man’s Worldwide Vacation

July 18th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far from Home ended its international run by opening in Italy this past weekend and this helped it remain in top spot on the international chart. Overall, the film pulled in $97.50 million on 30,559 screens in 86 markets for totals of $569.88 million internationally and $844.47 million worldwide. The film earned first place in Italy with $4.38 million on 829 screens over the weekend for a four-day opening of $6.08 million. If we compare just the three-day weekend, which is unfair to Far From Home, this result is still 45% more than Homecoming’s debut in that market. The film’s top holdover was South Korea, where it remained in first place with $9.80 million on 1,708 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $48.97 million. China wasn’t too far behind with $9.61 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $192.18 million. The film has very likely overtaken Homecoming at the global box office by the time you read this and could top $1 billion this weekend, assuming The Lion King doesn’t take too big a bite out of Far from Home’s box office numbers. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spider-Man Repeats on Top, but 2019 Takes Another Hit

July 16th, 2019

It was a mixed weekend at the box office. On the one hand, nearly every film in the top five topped expectations, albeit by small margins in most cases. This includes Spider-Man: Far From Home, which led the way with $45.35 million over the weekend. On the other hand, we still saw a serious decline with the overall box office down 31% from last weekend to $126 million. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year and this left 2019 further behind last year’s pace. It is now behind 2018 by 8.6% or $570 million at $6.10 billion to $6.67 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man Leads the Way, But Lion King Roars

July 14th, 2019

As expected, Spider-Man: Far From Home is going to remain in first place at the box office this weekend. Fortunately for the box office as a whole, it is beating expectations in terms of dollars with an estimated haul of $45.3 million, which would give is a two-week total of $274.5 million. Internationally, the film is earning $100 million in 67 markets for totals of $573 million internationally and $847 million worldwide. It opened in first place in Italy over the weekend with $6.1 million. This is the film’s final market, but even coasting on holdovers won’t stop it from reaching $1 billion worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: Spider-Man’s Place on Top is not in Jeopardy

July 13th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home will have no competition for top spot on this weekend’s chart, which was expected. Fortunately, it beat expectations at the box office with $13.65 million on Friday and Sony is projecting a $43.35 million sophomore stint. Its reviews and its A from CinemaScore obviously has had a positive effect on the film’s word-of-mouth and the film will have no trouble steaming past $300 million soon. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can the New Releases Crawl to the Top?

July 11th, 2019

Last weekend, Spider-Man: Far From Home was the first pleasant surprise at the box office since Aladdin came out in May. This weekend, we have two new releases hoping to continue the pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, neither Stuber nor Crawl are expected to be big hits. In fact, they likely won’t match Far From Home’s sophomore stint combined. Worse still, this weekend last year, both Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Skyscraper opened with more than Stuber and Crawl are expected to open combined, meaning 2019 will lose once again in the year-over-year competition. More...

International Box Office: Spider-Man’s Worldwide Vacation

July 11th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far from Home expanded nearly worldwide over the weekend, and earned $236.74 million on 53,120 screens in 85 markets for a still early international total of $393.37 million, and $578.43 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was South Korea, where it earned $24.55 million on 2,173 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $33.45 million. Far From Home also cracked $10 million in the U.K. with $10.53 million on 979 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.77 million and in Mexico with $10.39 million on 3,806 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $13.42 million. The film earned a total opening of $12.11 million in Australia, including $7.26 million on 332 screens over the weekend. The film’s biggest holdover was China, where it earned $29.88 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $166.63 million. Italy was the only market the film wasn’t playing in over the weekend, but that changed on Wednesday and we will have those numbers next week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Spider-Man Hits a Home Run

July 9th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home really brightened up the box office earning $92.58 million over the three-day weekend for a six-day opening of $185.06 million. This is one of the biggest positive surprises of the year and we desperately needed some good news after June. Toy Story 4 and Aladdin held on better than expected and the overall box office surged growing 21% from last weekend to $183 million. This is still lower than this weekend last year, but by only 2.7% and at this point, I’m willing to call that a victory. Year-to-date, 2019 did manage to close ground with 2018, thanks mostly to Far From Home’s strength before the weekend. However, this year is still 8.4% or $540 million behind last year at $5.88 billion to $6.42 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man Is Marvelous Worldwide

July 7th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home is getting off to a fantastic start with a three-day weekend haul of $93.6 million giving it a six-day debut of $185.1 million. This is more than it cost to make and it means the film is nearly guaranteed a healthy profit before it reaches the home market, even if it has soft legs. Additionally, its reviews are outstanding and it earned an A from CinemaScore, so its legs should be long for a blockbuster film. Internationally, the film pulled in $238 million on 52,800 screens in 66 markets for totals of $395 million internationally and $580 million worldwide. This was led by a six-day, $33.8 million first place debut in South Korea, while it earned $30.6 million during its second weekend in China for a two-week total of $167.4 million there. More...

Friday Estimates: Has Spider-Man Saved the Summer?

July 6th, 2019

Spider-Man: Far From Home got off to a record-breaking performance and it has since shown better-than-expected legs by earning $32.5 million on Friday for a four-day running tally of $124 million. Because it opened on Tuesday and not Friday, the film should have a better than average internal multiplier, giving it a better than 50/50 chance of cracking $90 million over the three-day weekend. The film cost $160 million to make and it will match that domestically on Sunday. Additionally, its reviews suggest strong word-of-mouth (The CinemaScore still hasn’t been released. I blame the Fourth of July holidays.) and with no direct competition for the rest of the month, it should have a long stay in theaters. It is yet another success story for the M.C.U. and enough to lift 2019 to a rare win over 2018 in the year-over-year competition. This could be a good omen going forward and perhaps we will look back at this weekend as the weekend that 2019 turned things around. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Spider-Man Snap the Streak?

July 3rd, 2019

It has been a long time since we’ve had a pleasant surprise at the box office. In fact, the last film to really beat expectations and earn first place was Aladdin, which came out in May. However, it appears that streak is over, as Spider-Man: Far From Home broke the record for biggest Tuesday with $39.26 million. Additionally, Midsommar earned $1.1 million during its previews, which means July should get off to a faster than expected start. Additionally, there should be some strong holds in the top five as well, with Toy Story 4, Annabelle Comes Home, and Yesterday all looking to earn more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man and the Wasp opened with $75.81 million. Spider-Man: Far From Home could top that after its record-breaking start and the overall box office does look a little healthier as a result. More...

Theater Averages: Chambermaid Cleans Up the Competition

July 3rd, 2019

The Chambermaid topped the theater average chart with $28,490 in one theater, which is double The Other Story’s opening of $14,163, also in one theater. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Toy Story 4, which remained in first place on the overall chart, while earning an average of $13,049. More...

International Box Office: Spider-Man Swings into First Place

July 3rd, 2019

Spider-Man: Far from Home made its international debut the weekend before its domestic start earning $111.20 million on 35,187 screens in three markets. Those three markets where led by China, where it earned $97.72 million on 34,300 screens. It was also very potent in Japan with $9.36 million on 465 screens and in Hong Kong with $4.12 million on 422. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Can’t Overcome Box Office Woes

July 2nd, 2019

June ended with shrug, as the weekend was neither a success nor a disaster. Toy Story 4 was the top draw, but it fell faster than most family films do, down 51% to $59.70 million. Annabelle Comes Home had the weakest opening in the franchise, while Yesterday did well as counter-programming, but that’s all. The overall box office fell 26% from last weekend and, more importantly, 15% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has fallen behind 2018’s pace by a margin of 9.5% or $580 million at $5.52 billion to $6.10 billion. At the beginning of June, I thought 2019 would have cut into 2018’s lead by $100 million, but that clearly didn’t happen. More...

Weekend Estimates: Toy Story has a June-Like Hold with $58 million

June 30th, 2019

Toy Story 4 is earning first place over the weekend with $57.92 million. A few weeks ago, a 52% sophomore stint drop-off by a family film would have been a really bad sign; however, June was so bad that this result matches expectations, more or less. The film now has $236.92 million domestically and should race past $300 million here before it is done. This is a monster hit and more than enough to be profitable, but still disappointing. This film is having a better weekend internationally, earning $80.6 million in 45 markets for totals of $259.6 million internationally and $496.5 million worldwide. This includes a $7.0 million opening in France, which is the best in the franchise. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story Dominates Chart, Doesn’t Have Aladdin-Like Legs

June 29th, 2019

It looks like June won’t end on a high note, as Toy Story 4 is falling faster than hoped for. The film earned $17.04 million on Friday, which is almost as much as the rest of the top five earned in total. However, and more importantly, it is 64% lower than the film’s opening Friday and that’s a sharper decline that I was anticipating. Granted, its $196.03 million running tally is in line with budget expectations, so it will break even, even if it doesn’t match expectations. A profitable disappointment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will June Completely Miss at the Box Office?

June 27th, 2019

So far June has been a disaster with no film topping expectations to any significant degree. In fact, Aladdin was the last time we had a film that really beat expectations at the box office and that came out more than a month ago. This weekend is the last chance for June to not be a complete disaster and frankly I’m not optimistic. Annabelle Comes Home is part of the biggest horror franchise around. However, the most recent installment was also the weakest by far and I fear this film will also be significantly below average for the franchise. Yesterday is the smaller of the two films, but in this case this means it doesn’t have to do much business at the box office to be seen as a success. Meanwhile, Toy Story 4 is expected to remain in top spot over the weekend and if its legs are long enough, it could be seen as a real success rather than a profitable disappointment. This weekend last year, there were no major new releases, but Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 were strong as holdovers. More...

Theater Averages: Quiet Weekend

June 27th, 2019

There weren’t many new releases to talk about, but a surprising percentage of them landed in the $10,000 club. This includes the overall box office champ, Toy Story 4, which opened with an average of $26,428. Wild Rose was the best of the limited releases earning an average of $13,235 in four theaters, while Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am was right behind with an average of $12,013, also in four theaters. More...

International Box Office: Toy Story Still has Stories to Tell

June 27th, 2019

Toy Story 4 dominated the international chart with $120.0 million in 37 markets, representing 64% of the international marketplace. Interestingly, China wasn’t the film’s biggest market, as it had an absolute monster debut in Mexico taking top spot there with $23.82 million. The film also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $16.90 million, which isn’t as strong as its opening here, but still impressive. Likewise, the film managed $13.4 million in China, which is good for an animated film there. Good, but not great. The film broke the record for an opening by an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million and did nearly as well in neighboring Argentina with $7.5 million. It was also impressive in South Korea with $7.47 million on 1,335 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.55 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Toy Story Latest Film to Miss Expectations

June 25th, 2019

I think 2019 is done. The year isn’t quite halfway done, but I think I’m ready to call the box office race with 2018 over. Toy Story 4 was the latest potential monster hit to miss expectations by a huge margin. Granted, it still opened in first place with $120.10 million and it will make a substantial profit, but this is still about 25% lower than a lot of people expected and the overall weekend is still a massive disappointment. It did rise 50% from last weekend hitting $204 million, but this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 is now behind 2018 by 8.9% or $510 million at $5.26 billion to $5.77 billion. If you want to stretch for some good news, then this isn’t the worst deficit we’ve seen this year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Toy Story has the Best Opening in the Franchise, Still Disappoints

June 23rd, 2019

Almost none of the films on this week’s list are living up to expectations, at least not according to the weekend estimates. Toy Story 4 is earning the best opening in the franchise with an estimated $118.0 million weekend. This is third-highest opening for an animated film, so there is reason to celebrate. However, it is also much lower than expected and a little more front-loaded than anticipated, so its future might be in doubt. The film is doing better internationally with an estimated opening weekend of $120.0 million in 37 markets. The film had the third biggest opening in Mexico with $23.4 million, putting it behind just the two most recent Avengers movies. It had the biggest opening for an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million. The film was also a monster hit in the U.K. with $15.0 million. On the other hand, it struggled in China with a second-place $13.4 million opening there; however, most animated films struggle in China. Hopefully the film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore translate into long legs, because 2019 really needs more success stories at the box office. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story Doesn’t Have an Incredible Start

June 22nd, 2019

Toy Story 4 is on pace to earn the third-best opening weekend for an animated film, but despite this, it will be seen as a disappointment, as many people were expecting a lot more. The film earned $47.39 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $123 million over the full weekend, which is behind Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory on the all-time opening chart for an animated film. It really needed to be higher up that list in order to help 2019 win in the year-over-year competition. At this pace, it won’t even match last year’s number one film, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. On the positive side, the film is earning 97% positive reviews and managed an A from CinemaScore, so it should have long legs. It will be a hit for Pixar and Disney is not going to lose money on this movie. However, I’m getting tired of big films failing to live up to expectations and I don’t think 2019 is going to be able to turn things around. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Toy Story 4 has Second Best Animated Previews

June 21st, 2019

First the good news: Toy Story 4 had the second best previews for an animated film earning $12 million. Now the bad news: Incredibles 2 had the best earning $18.5 million last year. Toy Story 4 better have better legs or 2019 is in real trouble. Fortunately, most analysts agree that it will and it is still on pace to match our $155 million prediction. We will obviously know more tomorrow when Friday’s numbers show up, but also the CinemaScore will be a big help. If audiences love the movie as much as critics did, then its legs should be a real asset. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Toy Story 4 Save June’s Box Office Run?

June 20th, 2019

June has not lived up to expectations and unless Toy Story 4 is a record-breaking hit, we are going to end the month with a loss. I don’t think it will break records, but it will easily be the biggest hit of the month. Also opening this week is Child’s Play, the reboot to the long-running horror franchise of the same name. Finally, Anna is the latest film from Luc Besson and many are comparing it to Lucy. It’s not going to do that well. It likely won’t reach the top five. This weekend last year, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with $148.02 million. I really hope Toy Story 4 tops that; however, even if it does, nothing playing this weekend is going to compare with Incredibles 2’s run last year, so 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Men in Black: International Lives Up to Its Name

June 20th, 2019

Men in Black: International did substantially better internationally with $68.22 million on 40,600 screens in 65 markets over the weekend for a total opening of $73.03 million. Its worldwide total was $103.06 million, which isn’t a bad start for a film that cost $110 million to make. It needs to have great legs and a strong home market run to break even any time soon, but this isn’t a number that should cause the studio to panic either. The film’s biggest single market was China where it earned first place with a total opening of $25.90 million, including $25.35 million on 21,000 screens over the weekend. It only managed third place in South Korea with $3.45 million on 1,055 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.88 million. Overall, the film is about 20% behind Men in Black 3’s opening in the same markets; however, this film also cost nearly 50% less to make, so financially, it is an improvement. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Weekend Bests Estimates, Still Clobbered by Incredibles

June 18th, 2019

There is some good news to report, as the weekend final numbers beat both the projections based on Friday estimates and Sunday’s estimates. There’s also some bad news. Even with this improvement, the weekend was really soft at the box office. Men in Black: International led the way with just $30.04 million during its opening weekend, while only two other films topped $10 million over the weekend. This left the overall box office down 18% from last weekend to just $135 million. This is 50% lower than the same weekend last year; a decline that we normally only see when there is a misalignment in a holiday. However, in this case, it was due to Incredibles 2, which earned more by itself than the total box office did this year. This has left 2019 further behind 2018 and it is now off last year’s pace by 7.0% or $370 million at $4.99 billion to $5.36 billion. Several weeks worth of gaining ground has gone in a single weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: Black Skies for MiB

June 16th, 2019

According to weekend estimates, Men in Black: International is topping projections based on Friday estimates, but is still weaker than predicted with $28.5 million. This is a pleasant surprise, as the film’s reviews are terrible and its B from CinemaScore strongly suggested weaker legs. Maybe it will continue to surprise going forward. The film is doing much better internationally with $73.7 million on 41,400 screens in 56 markets. This includes $26.3 million in China, $5.1 million in Russia, $4.9 million in South Korea, and $3.9 million in Mexico. On the downside, the film has opened in most major markets, so it will be mostly coasting on holdovers at this point. It should still earn enough to cover its production budget worldwide, but that’s not enough to break even in any timely fashion. More...

Friday Estimates: Toy Story 4 needs to be a Monster Hit

June 15th, 2019

It is going to be a really bad weekend. All of the progress we made since Endgame came out could be erased in a week and if Toy Story 4 isn’t a monster hit, then 2019 will be in serious trouble, again. Men in Black: International led the way on Friday, but it only managed $10.4 million. Sony is projecting a $26.2 million opening weekend, which would be the studio’s biggest opening of the year so far. In fact, it would be the studio’s third biggest hit of the year after just three days. Yikes. The film’s reviews are terrible and it only managed a B from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect long legs. There are some rumors going around that the film didn’t cost as much as its official $110 million production budget, but even if those are true, this is still not a good start. Maybe it will thrive internationally. More...

2019 Preview: June

June 1st, 2019

While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point. More...

Toy Story 4 Trailer 4

May 21st, 2019

Animated adventure with the voices of Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Annie Potts, and Tony Hale opens June 21 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Toy Story 4 Trailer

March 19th, 2019

Animated adventure with the voices of Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, and Tony Hale opens June 21 ... Full Movie Details. More...