December 16th, 2022
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Avatar: The Way of Water is finally here. James Cameron’s epic is expected to dominate at the box office well into the New Year and rack up hundreds of millions of dollars domestically (not to mention potentially billions worldwide) in the process. Exactly how many hundreds is the question, of course. Expectations for its opening weekend have been hovering around $150 million for quite a while, and ticked a little higher in the lead up to its release. Our final analysis points to around $170 million. But, as I’ll explain, that comes with a lot of caveats.
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December 2nd, 2022
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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever shouldn’t have much trouble staying top at the box office this weekend, with a hodgepodge of new releases aiming to pick up the slack coming off Thanksgiving, but none of them looking likely to do huge business. The film with the best shot at coming second is Violent Night, while Top Gun: Maverick and I Heard the Bells could shake up the top 10.
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September 9th, 2022
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The weekend after Labor Day is traditionally the slowest one of the year at the box office. But, to get the good news out of the way, there’s a good chance that won’t be the case this year, with the weekend of January 28 looking like it will hold on to that crown. The fact we’ll probably top the $34.8 million earned at the box office on the last weekend of January is down to three new wide releases, albeit ones that probably won’t set records at the box office.
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September 2nd, 2022
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This weekend at the box office is a forecaster’s nightmare, with a two new wide releases that are only playing in 1,880 and 1,184 theaters, a classic re-release that’s opening in 1,246 locations, and a recent blockbuster getting a re-release in 3,935 theaters. Making things even harder to predict is that tickets will only be $3 each at thousands of theaters on National Cinema Day on Saturday (see the Regal, Cinemark, and Marcus Theatres sites, and check your local listings—and note that the UK has National Cinema Day on Saturday too). There are four films that have a realistic chance of winning the weekend: Spider-Man: No Way Home, Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and (even though it’s a rank outsider) DC League of Super Pets. Any one of them would be a highly unusual box office winner, given how long all of them have been in theaters, but that’s mainly the result of a highly unusual lack of major new releases.
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August 26th, 2022
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The theatrical market officially hits the doldrums this weekend, with no films looking likely to top $10 million, and a combined weekend for all films hovering somewhere around the $50 million–$60 million mark—the lowest figure since February. Hopes ride on The Invitation and Three Thousand Years of Longing, both of which look like they will appeal to niche audiences that are too small to propel them to big debuts. The Invitation has the edge as we go into the weekend.
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July 15th, 2022
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This is another busy week at the box office, with four new movies opening nationwide and two films that each topped $100 million on opening weekend going into their second and third weeks in theaters. There’s not much doubt which film will top the chart (spoiler alert: it’s Thor: Love and Thunder), but our model has been working overtime to compile a predicted top ten.
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July 8th, 2022
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Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru, and now Thor: Love and Thunder. The first three films to open over $100 million since Memorial Day weekend are about to be joined by a fourth, and all of them share a common characteristic: a colon in their title. Coincidence? Yes.
And also, no.
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July 1st, 2022
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Minions: The Rise of Gru will, as expected, pull off a comfortable win at the box office this weekend. While it won’t have much competition from other films, it will have a mini-contest with itself as it shoots to earn $100 million over the Holiday. There’s a chance it’ll hit that number over three days, but my money is on it achieving the feat over four.
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June 24th, 2022
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A remarkable pile-up of films will top the box office chart this weekend, with five of them likely to earn more than $20 million over three days, and three in with a shot at coming out top. If it does happen, this would be the seventh time five films have earned over $20 million in a weekend. Life of Pi holds the record for the high-grossing fifth-placed film with $22.45 million over the weekend of November 23, 2012. That record looks in danger this weekend. But which of Elvis, Jurassic World: Dominion and Top Gun: Maverick does our model think will win the weekend? Read on to find out.
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June 17th, 2022
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After a painful hiatus from theaters since Onward debuted in March, 2020, Pixar returns in full force this weekend with an exclusive theatrical release for Lightyear. Although its $5,200,000 in previews spread between Wednesday and Thursday nights is well short of infinity and beyond, the animated adventure should top the chart this weekend, in spite of strong competition from Jurassic World: Dominion and Top Gun: Maverick.
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June 3rd, 2022
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With no new films playing in over 1,000 theaters this weekend, Top Gun: Maverick doesn’t face much competition in its second weekend. It could still fall dramatically though, given it posted big numbers from previews (which are included in its opening-weekend $126 million total), and it was a perfect fit for Memorial Day weekend. Some repeat business from ultra fans could stem the losses, but our model thinks anything over $50 million would be a good total this time around.
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May 27th, 2022
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It feels like the buzz around Top Gun: Maverick has been growing since mid-May, 1986, given the cruel delays in development, production, and release of the film. It finally arrives in theaters this weekend with hype at a perfectly-timed crescendo, and will top War of the Worlds to give Tom Cruise his best opening weekend ever. Given its $19.3 million in previews on Thursday, it has Pirates of Caribbean: At World’s End’s $114.7-million Memorial Day 3-Day Weekend record firmly in its sights. Our model thinks it could go much higher than that given how quickly it’s taken off.
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March 29th, 2022
Action movie starring Tom Cruise opens in theaters on May 27 ... Full Movie Details.
After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete “Maverick” Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him. When he finds himself training a detachment of Top Gun graduates for a specialized mission the likes of which no living pilot has ever seen, Maverick encounters Lt. Bradley Bradshaw, call sign: “Rooster,” the son of Maverick’s late friend and Radar Intercept Officer Lt. Nick Bradshaw, aka “Goose.” Facing an uncertain future and confronting the ghosts of his past, Maverick is drawn into a confrontation with his own deepest fears, culminating in a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those who will be chosen to fly it.
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December 16th, 2019
Action movie starring Tom Cruise opens June 26 ... Full Movie
Details.
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