February 24th, 2013
New releases were a bit of a mess, as Christmas Day was a Tuesday, so there were a few releases that came out the following Monday. One of those releases, Looper, led the Blu-ray sales chart during the week of January 6th with 317,000 units / $6.66 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just 34%, which is lower than I was expecting.
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February 5th, 2013
This week is a little confusing on the home market, as there are two weeks of new releases to deal with. (Because Christmas landed on a Tuesday, new releases were spread throughout the week, including some the following Monday.) One of the old new releases topped the DVD sales chart, as Looper sold 553,000 units and generated $9.71 million during its first full week on the home market. This is better than I was expecting.
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February 5th, 2013
Given how bad the new releases were, it's no surprise none of them reached the top of the Blu-ray sales chart. (While Looper was awarded the Pick of the Week, it actually came out on the following Monday, while the sales week ends on Sunday, so the numbers will be included in next week's results.) The Dark Knight Rises returned to first place with 314,000 units / $7.65 million for the week giving it totals of 3.90 million units / $79.93 million. It is one of the best selling Blu-rays of all time and about 50% more than The Dark Knight's current running tally.
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January 29th, 2013
New releases were even weaker than expected and none of them reached the top 30 of the DVD sales chart. The top five were identical to last week with Ted earning top spot for the third weekend in a row. It sold an additional 714,000 units generating $12.44 million in sales giving it totals of 3.42 million units / $57.68 million after three weeks of releases.
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January 25th, 2013
There were plenty of new releases to chart this week, but none of them were able to top the Blu-ray sales chart. In fact, most missed the top ten. This left Ted on top for the second weekend in a row with 558,000 units / $13.93 million giving it totals of 1.86 million units / $39.92 million after two. These are amazing Blu-ray totals for a comedy.
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January 23rd, 2013
While there were a number of new releases to reach the to 30 of the DVD sales chart this week, Ted was able to remain in first place. It sold an additional 1.04 million units while generating $18.59 million, lifting its totals to 2.71 million units / $45.24 million after two weeks of release.
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January 22nd, 2013
Like it did on the DVD sales chart, Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the Blu-ray sales chart. The film earned first place with 1.28 million units / $25.64 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 43%. That's very strong for a comedy, even one aimed at the prime demographic for Blu-ray.
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January 22nd, 2013
Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the DVD sales chart. It earned first place with 1.67 million units and $26.66 million, which was better than I anticipated.
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January 20th, 2013
Batman was even more dominant on the Blu-ray sales chart than it was on the DVD sales chart with two new releases earning the top two spots. The Dark Knight Rises earned first place with 2.26 million units / $42.13 million giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 53%. Meanwhile, the Trilogy Box Set earned second place with 453,000 units / $12.68 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 58%. The combined totals are not quite as good as The Avengers' debut was, but was still a fantastic start.
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January 10th, 2013
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning, and there's certainly a lot to talk about. There are some nominations that should surprise no one. For instance, Lincoln led the way with twelve nominations, and it has been seen as the major contender for a long time. However, there were also a few surprise nominations and some major snubs. Here are the list of nominations, and some reactions.
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December 19th, 2012
There are only a few days left till Christmas and we are officially in the panic zone for gift shopping. This week we have our final installment of our annual Holiday Gift Guide. Part I dealt with first run releases, Part II dealt with TV on DVD releases, Part III dealt with limited releases, foreign titles, and classics. This week, we deal with some music, books, games, as well as releases from the first three parts that I forgot the first time around. As always, there are quite a few in that last category. (I also use this time to burn off some releases that arrived late. This way I can get through all of the late reviews quicker than normal and actually have enough time to celebrate Christmas.)
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December 10th, 2012
It's a terrible week on the home market from top to bottom, but for different reasons. There are a few really big releases at the top, Ted, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Bourne Legacy, Girls: Season One, Futurama: Volume Seven. However, I am waiting for the final screener for all of them. (I did get a DVD screener for a couple.) After that glut of good releases, there's a sharp drop-off in sales potential. That doesn't mean there aren't other releases worth picking up, but I don't expect Following to sell 100,000 units on DVD or Blu-ray. It is the best release on this week's list and the winner of the Pick of the Week honor. On a side note, there are a ton of cheap releases with the word, "Django" in the title, obviously hoping to cash in on Django Unchained. There are also a lot of releases that I would describe as porn, or at least porn-lite. I assume those two trends are unrelated.
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November 1st, 2012
In what has to be one of the least surprising events of the year, Skyfall opened in first place on the international box office chart. It pulled in $83.05 million on 5,077 screens in 25 markets, this includes first place debuts in all 25 markets. It was surprisingly strong in its native U.K. with $32.41 million on 587 screens, which was the second best three-day opening in that market behind only Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. The film was also huge in France with $9.70 million on 820 screens and in Russia with $8.27 million on 1,254 screens. In South Korea, the film made $6.02 million on 749 screens and in Brazil it earned $3.18 million on 537 screens. The film was also a multi-million dollar hit in a number of smaller markets. This includes $3.58 million on 116 screens in Denmark, $3.13 million on 179 in Norway, $2.82 million on 222 in Sweden, and 2.49 million on 217 in Poland. On average, the film was 30% stronger than Quantum of Solace's opening weekends in these market, and 76% higher than Casino Royale.
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October 25th, 2012
Paranormal Activity 4 opened in first place on the international chart with $26.35 million on 3,900 screens in 32 markets. This includes a number of major markets. It earned first place in Australia with $3.73 million on 321 screens and in Germany with $3.30 million on 316. It was also strong in Mexico topping the chart with $2.20 million on 956 and in Brazil with $1.81 million on 268. The film had to settle for second place in the U.K. with $4.08 million on 416 screens and in Russia with $3.90 million on 810 screens. While it missed first place, it still did well in both markets. On the other hand, it really struggled in Spain earning fourth place with just $918,000 on 238 screens. It is still too early to tell where the film will end up, but this is a good start
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October 18th, 2012
After just two weeks of release, Taken 2 has already earned more internationally than the original did in total. Over the weekend, the sequel pulled in $45.09 million on 6,889 screens in 63 markets for a two-week total of $134.76 million, while its worldwide total rose to $220.89 million. The film had to settle for second place in Germany with $3.55 million on 437 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.88 million. It only managed fourth place in Italy with $1.26 million on 265. Its best market of the weekend was the U.K. with $6.01 million on 510 screens over the weekend for a total of $23.29 million after two. The film has very few markets left to open in, but it has already made enough to cover its production budget and likely a good chunk of its P&A budget. It will reach profitability before it reaches the home market.
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October 11th, 2012
Taken 2 was just as strong internationally as it was domestically earning first place with $55.23 million on 6,319 screens in 50 markets for a total of $66.79 million. The film had a trio of first place openings in major markets, starting with the U.K. with $11.85 million on 506 screens. It also opened in first place in France with $8.29 million on 561 screens and in Australia with $7.92 million on 246. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Mexico with $2.54 million on 930 screens, in Russia with $2.00 million on 750, and in Spain with $1.24 million on 320.
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October 4th, 2012
Well... we found out why the Chinese box office numbers were extra late this week. There was an accounting error in Looper's previously reported numbers and it took time to sort things out. Instead of making $23 million to $25 million, it made about $6 million. That's actually still really good and better than it performed here, relative to the size of the two markets, but it wasn't a monster hit. The wide gap in the initial reported number and the final figure is an embarrassment, but hopefully it will spur China to build the infrastructure needed to collect box office data faster and more accurately. China might be the most important international market, but studios can't invest money into making movies aimed more at a Chinese market if they can't trust the box office numbers they get. The other numbers we had were accurate leading to a total weekend haul of $22.85 million on 2,506 million in 17 markets. It wasn't a hit in all of them, as it only managed third place in Brazil with $955,000 on 332 screens. The film is just starting its international run, so it is hard to predict where it will end up, but so far most signs are very positive.
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September 26th, 2012
Resident Evil: Retribution remained in first place on the international chart with $29.83 million on 7,250 screens in 73 markets for a total of $103 million internationally. It is already the second best in the franchise internationally and while it might not become the number one film, it has made enough to ensure another installment. The film opened in first place in Germany with $3.40 million on 475 screens over the weekend for a total of $3.74 million, while it also topped the chart in Mexico with $3.55 million on 1,218. Its best market of the weekend was Japan, where it added $6.35 million on 775 screens over the weekend for a total of $28.23 million after just two weeks of release.
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September 19th, 2012
Resident Evil: Retribution debuted in top spot on the international chart with $49.61 million on 6,154 screens in 65 markets. The film opened in first place in a trio of major markets with Japan pulling in $8.63 million on 774 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.17 million. Russia was close behind with $8.37 million on 1,100 screens. It was was able to grab first place in Brazil with $3.15 million on 391. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in South Korea with $1.99 million on 368 screens over the weekend and a total opening of $2.44 million. It debuted in third place in Australia with $1.50 million on 175.
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September 13th, 2012
The Expendables 2 opened in China and that helped propel it into first place with $41.62 million on 5,930 screens in 48 markets for an international total of $157.29 million. Unfortunately, as it is usually the case, no numbers for China were released, but were likely more than half the film's weekend haul. It also opened in South Korea earning third place with $1.58 million on 394 screens over the weekend for a total of $1.81 million.
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September 5th, 2012
Thanks to its opening in China, The Dark Knight Rises returned to the top of the international chart with $49.8 million on 10,000 screens in 64 markets. The film now has $577.7 million internationally and $1.009 billion worldwide, becoming just the twelfth film to reach that milestone. In China, the film earned $28.5 million on 4,100 screens, which was easily enough for first place. The film had to settle for second place in Italy with $4.95 million on 914 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.75 million.
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August 29th, 2012
The Expendables 2 remained in first place with $25.96 million on 5,672 screens in 33 markets for a total of $66.76 million. It debuted in first place in Spain with $2.45 million on 459 screens, which is significantly more than the original made in Spain when it opened. Meanwhile, it added $3.13 million on 815 screens in Russia, for a total of $14.22 million after two weeks of release in that market. This is more than its predecessor earned in total in Russia.
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August 23rd, 2012
The Expendables 2 earned first place during its international debut with $23.01 million on 3,741 screens in 19 markets. It was led by Russia where it made $8.12 million on 804 during its opening weekend. It also topped the chart in Mexico ($3.32 million on 1,249) and in Italy ($1.91 million on 379). It only managed fourth place in the U.K. with $3.12 million on 451 screens. By comparison, The Expendables earned much less in Russia, Mexico, and Italy, but much more in the U.K. Overall, the sequel has made a little more than its predecessor, but it is too soon to tell where it will end up.
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August 16th, 2012
It looks like summer will be extended by one more week, as The Expendables 2 is tracking for an opening of close to $40 million, maybe a little more. Even better for the market, it isn't the only new release of the weekend. I think ParaNorman could be a solid hit in a counter-programming role. Not everyone agrees with me, on the other hand. ParaNorman is competing with The Odd Life of Timothy Green, but as a live action family film, it's chances are a lot weaker. The final new release is Sparkle, which only has a 50/50 chance of reaching the top five. Last year there were also four wide releases, but combined they made less than $40 million. The Expendables 2 could make more than that by itself. 2012 should finally break out of its losing streak.
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August 15th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises remained in first place with $35.1 million on 12,000 screens in 58 markets over the weekend. After nearly a month in release, it has $446.6 million internationally and $836.2 million worldwide. It became just the 33rd film to reach $800 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but has yet to open in Italy, while it should have enough left to get to $900 million with relative ease, getting to $1 billion will be a whole lot harder.
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August 13th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy was easily able to win the weekend box office race, finishing within $1 million of predictions. In fact, most of the top five finished within roughly $1 million of predictions. This helped the overall box office climb 16% from last weekend. However, the overall box office was still weak when compared to last year down 8.4%. 2012's lead over 2011 shrank to just 3.5% at $7.01 billion to $6.78 billion and if we don't turn things around soon, we might see 2012 relinquish the lead before the winter holiday season begins.
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August 9th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy should have no trouble dominating the box office this weekend and it might become the last $100 million hit of the summer. On the other hand, it might not be the only $100 million hit opening this week. The Campaign is an R-rated comedy, which should do better than most and at least has an outside shot at reaching the century club. Hope Springs is counter-programming aimed at a more mature target demographic and its chances over the weekend are not great, but its legs could be strong. Finally, there's Nitro Circus: The Movie 3D, which is only playing in about 800 theaters, but it could squeeze into the top ten. This week last year the new releases were led by The Help while a returning film, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, topped the chart. Neither film made $30 million over the weekend, which is something The Bourne Legacy should do with ease, so 2012 should pull out a win. Hopefully that is the case, because year-over-year, 2012 has been losing big time lately.
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August 8th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises held onto first place with $66.7 million on 15,400 screens in 58 markets lifting its totals to $378.1 million internationally and $732.0 million worldwide. Since last week, it cracked $300 million internationally and became just the 49th film to reach $700 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but still finished in first place in Mexico with $5.38 million on 2,370 screens and in Brazil with $4.76 million on 904 screens. In those two markets, it has two-week totals of $21.28 million and $15.28 million respectively. It was forced into second place in the U.K., but earned $6.67 million on 567 screens over the weekend for a total of $63.53 million after two. The film still has a few markets left to open in, including Italy, so it isn't quite done yet.
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August 6th, 2012
As I've mentioned before, for a film to repeat at the top of the box office, it generally just needs to earn a massive opening and to avoid a big fall during its sophomore stint. However, for a film to earn first place at the box office three times in a row, it needs help from weak new releases. This is certainly the case with The Dark Knight Rises. Granted, it did hold on better than expected this weekend, but the two new releases, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, were so far behind that The Dark Knight Rises would have won with ease, even if it just missed expectations. The weakness in the new releases resulted in the overall box office falling 8.5% from last week to just $123 million. More importantly, this was 27% lower than the same weekend last year. 2012 is still head of 2011's pace, but the margin has been reduced to just 4.2% at $6.80 billion to $6.53 billion. If things don't turn around soon, 2012 might relinquish its lead before the end of the year.
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August 5th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises will become the third film this year to top the weekend box office chart for three weeks running, thanks in part to another reasonably strong weekend (down 41% from last time), but mainly because Total Recall will muster only a decidedly so-so $26 million on debut, according to Sony's Sunday estimate. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days is expected to pull in about $14.7 million for Fox, rounding out another weekend where new movies have failed to catch on with audiences.
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July 30th, 2012
That was a pretty bad week. The Dark Knight Rises fell faster than most people were expecting while The Watch flopped. Step Up Revolution came very close to matching expectations, but it was expected to struggle, so that's not saying much. Overall, the box office fell 42% from last week to $134 million, which was 25% lower than the same weekend last year. The swings we've seen at the box office are erratic, to be polite, but at least 2012 remains ahead of 2011, even if the margin shrunk to 5.5% at $6.61 billion to $6.27 billion.
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July 26th, 2012
There's little doubt that The Dark Knight Rises will repeat as the box office champion this weekend. There are some questions regarding how much it will dominate the box office. Will it continue to match The Dark Knight's pace? Will it show the same legs as The Avengers did earlier this summer? Or will it collapse like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II did? There are also a few, very few, asking questions about The Watch and Step Up Revolution. Both films are opening wide, but neither film looks like it will be able to get anywhere beyond a midlevel hit and they are very unlikely to match last year's two wide releases, Cowboys and Aliens and The Smurfs. Fortunately, The Dark Knight Rises should earn enough to ensure a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 23rd, 2012
There was tragedy over the weekend at a midnight showing of The Dark Knight Rises, which is clearly a more important story than any box office numbers. However, we try to avoid politics here, and try to stick with the numbers, but the two stories might be hard to untangle. As expected, The Dark Knight Rises led the box office, but with a more subdued opening. It failed to match The Avengers's opening from earlier in the summer, but was the biggest from the franchise. It helped propel the overall box office to $230 million, which was 39% higher than last weekend and 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 now leads 2011 by 6.7% at $6.37 billion to $5.96 billion.
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July 19th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises looks to crush the competition at the box office this weekend. No one is wondering if it will be the number one film this weekend. People are wondering if it will have the number one opening of all time. At the beginning the year, I would have put the odds of that happening at about 80%. However, after The Avengers opened with more than $200 million, the chance of The Dark Knight Rises breaking that record is now very slim. It has a better shot at earning more than the entire box office this weekend last year, or about $191 million. The odds of 2012 winning in the year-over-year comparison is nearly 100%.
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July 18th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift returned to top spot with $97.56 million on 14,354 screens in 64 markets for totals of $339.21 million internationally and $385.84 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in the U.K. with $15.66 million on 522 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $20.27 million, including previews. It was just as powerful in Russia with $16.86 million on 2,090 screens. The film grew by 9% in Germany to $12.16 million on 825 screens over the weekend for a total of $31.20 million after two weeks of release. The film doesn't have a lot of markets left to open in, but it has already made enough to pay for its production budget and likely has covered a large chunk of its P&A budget.
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July 16th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift opened on the low end of expectations. The rest of the top five did better than predicted, but that wasn't enough to compensate and the overall box office fell 16% from last weekend to $165 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, and less than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II opened with. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, even if the margin is down to 6.6% at $6.05 billion to $5.68 million. The box office should bounce back next weekend with the release of The Dark Knight Rises.
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July 15th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift will deliver a very solid $46 million over the weekend, according to Fox's Sunday morning estimate. While that's down quite a bit from the franchise's high point, The Meltdown's $68 million in 2006, it is up from the $41.7 million debut of Dawn of the Dinosaurs. If word-of-mouth is decent enough, the film should enjoy four weeks of relatively light direct competition, and might become the first title from the franchise to top $200 million domestically. Even more encouragingly for Fox, it's living up to the gigantic performances of its predecessors internationally, having already topped $200 million and broken a number of national records. The franchise as a whole has now cruised past $2 billion in global box office receipts and stands behind only Shrek among animated franchises.
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July 12th, 2012
This weekend, Ice Age: Continental Drift has the weekend to itself, at least as far as new wide releases goes. It will still have to deal with holdovers, but The Amazing Spider-Man will likely be in a distant second place. Last year, the number one release was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, which opened with a then record $169.19 million. Ice Age won't match that. In fact, there's a chance Ice Age won't make that much during its entire run. 2012 box office is going to take a tumble this weekend.
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July 11th, 2012
After a narrow opening last weekend, The Amazing Spider-Man expanded worldwide this weekend taking first place with $127.49 million on 18,343 screens in 74 markets for an early total of $200.86 million internationally and $337.89 million worldwide. If it didn't make another dollar at the box office, it would still likely break even early in its home market run. The film's biggest opening was in the U.K. where it dominated the box office with $17.19 million on 552 screens. That is like opening with about $100 million here.
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July 9th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man started faster than expected, but stumbled a little bit over the weekend. Additionally, the other two wide releases, Savages and Katy Perry: Part of Me, were mixed and weak respectively. This left the overall box office down 6.5% from last weekend to $196 million. However, this was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. 2012 increased its lead over 2011 to 8% at $5.78 billion to $5.36 billion, so even if the rest of the year is completely flat compared to last year, it would still be a solid win.
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July 8th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man has continued its strong performance through the weekend, adding another $65 million to the $75 million it accumulated through Thursday. Its $140 million total is ahead of Sony's pre-release prediction, but mostly in line with independent analysis. With only Ice Age: Continental Drift opening next weekend, it will have a clear couple of weeks to pick up the teenage crowd and something over $200 million, before being blown away by The Dark Knight Rises on July 20. The weekend's other two debutantes are less amazing.
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July 5th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man opened on Tuesday to better than expected numbers and should cruise to victory over the weekend, but it is not the only wide release this week. Katy Perry: Part of Me opens tonight while Savages opens tomorrow. They are not going to compete for top spot. In fact, very few people think they will compete with last week's winner, Ted, for second place and one or both could miss the top five entirely. Fortunately, the combined strength of the new releases, plus healthy holdovers, should help 2012 easily win over last year.
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July 5th, 2012
The winner of our Bear With Me contest was determined and it is...
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July 4th, 2012
Beasts of the Southern Wild was the latest limited release to have a monster start on the per theater chart. It earned $170,000 in four theaters for an average of $42,426. To Rome With Love was pushed into second place with an average of $23,872 in 29 theaters. Up next was a trio of wide releases starting with Ted with $16,800. Magic Mike and Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection were close behind with $13,354 and $11,749. It's rare for three wide releases to reach the $10,000 mark on the per theater chart.
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July 2nd, 2012
The box office wasn't as close a race as some had predicted, as Ted ran away with things breaking records in the process. That's not to say the competition was weak. Both Magic Mike and Tyler Perry's Madeas Witness Protection beat expectations and this helped the overall box office grow 61% from last weekend. It also grew 4% from last year, which normally wouldn't seem like a big deal, but this weekend last year was the Independence Day long weekend. For 2012 to win despite the misalignment is amazing and hopefully this is a good sign for the coming weeks. Year-to-date, 2012 still holds a solid lead over 2011, $5.43 billion to $5.06 billion. Percentwise the lead is now 7%, which is a great position to be in at the halfway mark of the year.
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July 1st, 2012
A huge opening for Ted and better-than-expected starts for both Magic Mike and Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection will add up to an impressive weekend for the industry, based on Sunday's studio estimates. Even with a tough comparison (July 4 fell on a Monday last year), the total for this weekend should be about on par with the same weekend last year.
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June 28th, 2012
There are three new releases and a holdover looking to battle for top spot over the weekend. Magic Mike will likely be the best of the new releases, but Ted could be close behind. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection is a wild card and could earn first or could struggle to reach $20 million. The only one of the four new releases that will not have a shot at first place is People Like Us, which at its lowest might not reach the top ten. Brave will also be in the race for first place and many believe it has the advantage over the newcomers. As for the year-over-year comparison, forget about it. This weekend last year was the Independence Day long weekend and the misalignment will result in 2012 taking a beating. In fact, the combined openings of the four wide releases will likely not be as much as Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened with last year. June is going to end on a really soft note, but July should start strong due to the same holiday misalignment.
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June 22nd, 2012
Next weekend there are four films opening wide and I really have no idea which one will be the best. (I'm pretty sure Brave will remain in first place.) People Like Us is earning great early reviews, but it is the film mostly likely to slip between the cracks. Madea's Witness Protection is opening in just 2000 theaters, more or less, but his fans will come out regardless. That said, his recent box office numbers are down, so perhaps his fans have moved on. Magic Mike could be a surprise hit, but a film about male strippers could alienate moviegoers. Ted is the latest R-rated comedy to come out this summer, but while there were a string of hits in the past, this year the genre has struggled. This could mean moviegoers are waiting for one that looks good. Or it could mean we passed the point of saturation. Madea, Mike, and Ted have roughly the same chance to be the best of the new releases, but we are going with Ted as the target film for this week's box office prediction contest, because it has the largest early theater count estimate. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ted.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Louie: Season Two on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Louie: Season Two on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 1st, 2012
As May ends and we look forward to June, we have some good news and some bad news to report from last month. First the bad news. Nearly every film missed expectations, sometimes by massive levels. The good news? The Avengers was a record-breaking hit and it managed to compensate for every miss of the month and May of 2012 was just as strong as May of 2011. Unfortunately, the month has ended on a low note and The Avengers is shedding theaters, so new releases will be really important for June's chances. There are two films that were supposed to open wide this month that are no longer doing so, although we did have one film moved up to replace G.I. Joe: Retaliation, but that still leaves just twelve films opening wide over the five weekends in June. This does include six films that have a real shot at earning $100 million or more at the box office, and three of those have a shot at $200 million. Prometheus is earning a ton of buzz and there are some that think it will be the biggest hit of the month. It might even be a $300 million hit. However, you can't count out Brave in the race to become the biggest hit of the month, as Pixar's average is over $250 million and $300 million is also not out of the question. It's hard to compare last June, because there were only four weekends last June, and Transformers: Dark of the Moon opened on the Wednesday before the July 1st long weekend, which throws off the numbers. If you consider Dark of the Moon a June release, then there were six $100 million movies and one $300 million this month last year. We will need nearly every film to match expectations in order for 2012 to continue to strengthen its lead on 2011.
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