July 28th, 2023
All eyes remain on Barbie this weekend as it attempts to follow up its opening weekend, the 20th-best of all time, with something in the top 20 second weekends of all time. Based on how it’s been doing during the week, that seems like a good bet. It’ll have a bit of competition from Haunted Mansion this time around though, and perhaps more people will choose to watch Barbie or Oppenheimer this weekend, rather than both together. Even at the low end though, we’re still looking ahead to a very good weekend in theaters.
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July 14th, 2023
Mission: Impossible, Dead Reckoning—Part One will need to pick up its pace over the weekend to come in close to pre-release expectations. Its Wednesday and Thursday numbers ($15.5 million and $8.3 million, respectively) are perfectly respectable, but they point to a five-day opening under $70 million, and a Friday–Sunday weekend well behind Mission: Impossible—Fallout’s $61.2 million back in 2018.
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May 19th, 2023
Another weekend, another film from a venerable franchise. Technically, no super heroes are involved this time, but there’s certainly an element of the unreal in the Fast and Furious franchise, which draws up to the starting line for either the tenth or eleventh time, depending on how one’s counting, this weekend. Fast X will win the weekend comfortably, and our model thinks it could make a fast start.
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May 12th, 2023
It’s counter-programming week in movie theaters, with four new wide releases trying to lure audiences that aren’t into (or have already seen) The Super Mario Bros. Movie or Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, with the goal of earning some money before Fast X steamrollers the competition next weekend. Book Club: The Next Chapter is the film most likely to come out on top among the new releases, but a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for the romantic comedy.
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May 5th, 2023
Everything we know so far about the performance of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 points towards an opening weekend close to $110 million. That’ll knock The Super Mario Bros. Movie off top spot, but the video game adaptation won’t have any trouble holding on to second spot as Love Again looks likely to struggle.
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April 29th, 2023
No less than four films open wide this weekend, and Return of the Jedi gets an anniversary re-release, but none of them will come close to knocking The Super Mario Bros. Movie off the top of the box office chart.
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April 21st, 2023
After no less than six new wide releases last weekend, five more films arrive in over 600 theaters this time around, but none will topple The Super Mario Bros. Movie as the top-earning film in North America. Evil Dead Rise will most likely come the closest, and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant should find a place in the top ten. The fortunes of Beau is Afraid, Chevalier, and Somewhere in Queens is harder to predict. One or two of them could hit the top ten, but it seems unlikely all three will manage the feat.
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April 14th, 2023
No less that six new wide releases arrive in theaters this weekend, the most of the post-pandemic era, beating the five wide releases that arrived the weekend of September 16 last year. None of them will come close to beating The Super Mario Bros. Movie in its second weekend. The battle for second place looks interesting though…
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April 7th, 2023
The Super Mario Bros. Movie is headed for the biggest weekend of 2023, and stands a very good chance to topping $200 million by the end of it. Universal is predicting a whopping $59 million today and $137 million over the weekend to go with the $58 million it has already earned on Wednesday and Thursday. That would add up to $195 million over its first five days in release, and the studio is probably being a little conservative in their projection. The film is so far outside the norm so far that our model has a hard time pinning it down, but here’s what it says so far…
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