October 1st, 2021
A critical month for the theatrical industry has started with some promising news: Venom: Let There Be Carnage posted a very solid $11.6 million from “preview” screenings on Thursday evening, the second-best result from previews during the pandemic, and not far behind Black Widow’s $13.2 million. Sony Pictures, while presumably very happy with how things are going so far, are urging caution when extrapolating that number out to the whole weekend. Their current projection for the weekend is towards the high end of the $50 million to $60 million range, with a preview-to-weekend multiplier around five.
Here’s what our model has to say about Venom’s prospects, along with this weekend’s other new wide releases and returning films…
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September 12th, 2021
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings isn’t just the biggest game in town, it’s practically the only game in town at the moment when it comes to earning dollars at the box office. The Marvel movie will earn about $35.8 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning projection, a decline of 53% from its three-day opening (a good figure these days), and will stand at $145.6 million or so in total by the end of today, making it already the fourth-highest earner at the domestic box office in 2021 with plenty more to come. Malignant’s $5.57 million box office debut will only be enough for third place this weekend and raises further questions about Warner Bros.’ strategy of releasing films simultaneously on HBO Max.
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September 5th, 2021
Disney is projecting that Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will open with $71.4 million over three days and $83.5 million over the four-day Labor Day weekend, making it the second-best new release of the pandemic era and smashing the Labor Day weekend record held since 1999 by The Sixth Sense. At the very end of a stop-start Summer, this is arguably the best result we’ve seen at the box office. And maybe, just maybe, a sign that studios will see the benefits of holding off on releasing films to streaming on opening weekend.
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August 22nd, 2021
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Free Guy will fall just 34% in its second weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection, and a weekend total of $18.79 million will be enough to keep it at the top of the box office chart. PAW Patrol: The Movie will come in with a solid $13 million in second place, but the other openers are doing much more poorly, leading to a down weekend for the market as a whole.
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August 15th, 2021
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An impressive $28.4-million opening for Free Guy will more than make up for weakness in the rest of the market to give us a welcome “up” weekend at the box office. Free Guy’s start beats The Suicide Squad’s debut last weekend, which will undoubtedly add fuel to the debate on the viability of releasing major films simultaneously in theaters and on streaming platforms—Free Guy gets a 45-day window before it lands exclusively on Disney+, while The Suicide Squad is already playing on HBO Max.
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August 13th, 2021
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Free Guy finally gets its day in theaters this weekend at the fourth time of asking, and it should top the box office chart according to our model. But, as if arriving more than a year after its original release date and under the 20th Century Studios banner after Fox’s acquisition by Disney wasn’t enough, it also has to carry a large of part of the hopes of the theatrical business on its back after some shaky opening weekends and sharp drops for returning films in recent weeks. It will have some help from Don’t Breathe 2 and Respect, which are both also opening in wide release.
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August 8th, 2021
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Cannibalization from HBO Max? An R-rated super hero movie that suffered because it couldn’t reach family audiences? Renewed reluctance to go to movies as the Delta Variant hits hard across the continent? Whatever the reasons (and it’s most likely a combination of all three), The Suicide Squad will open with a disappointing $26.5 million this weekend, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. While singling out the performance of a single movie makes for an easy headline, what’s perhaps more concerning for the industry today is that six out of the top eight films missed our model’s prediction, which suggests that the market recovery we were hoping for is stalling out.
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August 6th, 2021
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The Suicide Squad should easily win the weekend at the box office as it goes up against Jungle Cruise (playing in its second weekend), and… not much else. After July’s relative banquet of new releases, August will be more modest in scope, and The Suicide Squad looked at one stage as though it might have had the month almost to itself. Although its recent tracking has been more muted, its Thursday preview numbers point towards an easy win this weekend. This might be the only weekend it tops the charts though.
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August 1st, 2021
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Get ready for Big Thunder Mountain Railroad: The Movie everyone. Disney’s strategy of converting its theme park rides into adventure movies is hitting pay dirt again this weekend with Jungle Cruise on its way to a $34.2-million debut, according to the studio’s Sunday morning projection. That’s substantially above our model’s prediction, and it’s not the only movie to be earning more than expected: The Green Knight will earn about $6.8 million this weekend to land in second place. Those two films more than make up for the softness of the returning titles, and we are looking at a welcome “up” weekend for the market as a whole.
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July 25th, 2021
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M. Night Shyamalan returns to the top of the box office charts this weekend, but he might be the only person celebrating as every opening and returning film in the top 10 looks set to underperform this weekend. Shyamalan’s new film, Old is coming closest to our model’s prediction with an opening of $16.5 million, which is 12% below what the model expected. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins will come second with $13.35 million, which is 15% behind expectations. Those results are both well within the model’s margin of error, but the collective performance of the market is troubling.
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