November 27th, 2015
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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July 5th, 2015
Back on schedule, not that there's much to talk about. The biggest new release for the week ending June 21 was Chappie, which barely made more than $30 million domestically. This meant a holdover, American Sniper, rose to top spot on the home market chart with 378,000 units / $5.30 million for the week. This gives the film totals of 2.76 million units / $49.44 million after a month of release.
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July 4th, 2015
It was a busy week in real life, with the July Preview, Canada Day, and July 4th holidays messing with schedules. Because of that, the home market numbers were late this week. However, this week's numbers will be up in the next two days, so it was a very short disruption. That said, there's not much to talk about when it comes to new releases on the home video sales charts for the week ending June 14. Sure, The Kingsman: Secret Service earned first place on the home market chart, but there was only one other new release in the top five and only a few others in the top 30. The number one release of the week sold 591,000 units and generated $10.29 million in consumer spending. This includes an opening week Blu-ray share of 51%. Anything above 50% is worth celebrating; however, the overall numbers are still lower than anticipated.
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June 22nd, 2015
It was a busy week on the home market, sort of. There were plenty of new releases on the video chart, with new releases earning five of the top six spots. However, the number one film, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water wasn't a major hit, selling 584,000 units / $11.52 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 47%, which is really good for an animated film aimed at kids. Overall, this isn't a bad start, but I was really hoping for more. Its box office numbers were much better than expected, plus it was a great movie, but its home market debut is only good.
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June 14th, 2015
The week ending May 31 was a terrible week for new releases with only one that sold more than 50,000 units on the combined home market chart. Fortunately, American Sniper held on a lot better than most releases do, and was down just 27% to 844,000 units/ $16.01 million in consumer spending for the week, giving it totals of 1.99 million units / $37.40 million after two weeks of release. It is now in fifth place on the 2015 combined chart, but again, given its box office, it should be higher.
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June 3rd, 2015
Welcome to the column formerly known as the DVD and Blu-ray release report! In response to the changing home market landscape, we have renamed it the Home Market Release Report, and will now be including Video-on-Demand releases. It was a bad week to try and change the format, as there were a ton of great releases contending for Pick of the Week. Most of these contenders are TV on DVD releases, including Parks & Recreation: Season 7. There is also one limited release, Spring on Blu-ray, and one first-run releases, The SpongeBob Movie: A Sponge Out of Water on 3D Combo Pack. It was a close race, but I choose SpongeBob in the end.
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June 1st, 2015
On Friday, I got a package of half-a-dozen Nickelodeon releases ... all of which come out on Tuesday. Needless to say, I won't be reviewing all of them, but that's why the current box office prediction contest features Nickelodeon releases. The one I'm definitely reviewing is The SpongeBob Movie: A Sponge Out of Water, which earned great reviews and was a surprise hit at the box office. Did it deserve this success? Or will I be one of the dissenting voices?
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May 28th, 2015
Next week is the first week of June and there are three films opening wide: Entourage, Insidious: Chapter 3, and Spy! There's a chance none of these films will finish with $100 million at the box office, but Spy! has the best shot at that milestone. As such, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Spy!.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize. Because The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is coming out on 3D Blu-ray this Tuesday (Look for our review coming out over the weekend.) our Frankenprizes will feature SpongeBob SquarePants releases, as well as other similar kids DVDs. Its a great prize to win just as school ends.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a SpongeBob Frankenprize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a SpongeBob Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 8th, 2015
The Avengers: Age of Ultron remained in top spot on the international chart with $168.8 million in 88 markets over the weekend for totals of $439.8 million internationally and $631.1 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in Mexico with $18.89 million over the weekend for a total opening of $25.5 million. The first film opened with $17.44 million, but it opened on a Friday, so it is a little harder to directly compare the two debuts. Age of Ultron did break the five-day opening record, so the studio has to be happy. It also broke the all-time opening record in Ecuador with $2.08 million on 122 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.73 million. It was strong, but not record-breaking, in Thailand, where it earned $3.98 million on 468 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.43 million. The same could be said of its openings in Spain ($4.84 million on 905 screens) and Peru ($3.16 million on 407). On the other hand, it opened in second place in Slovenia with $44,000 on 21 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $60,000. It was beat by The SpongBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water's sophomore stint there. I don't know what this means about the market and their opinion of Marvel vs. Sponges, but it is certainly an interesting bit of information.
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April 16th, 2015
Furious 7 remained just as dominant at the international box office this weekend as it did in its opening weekend earning $198.7 million in 66 markets for totals of $550.47 million internationally and $802.0 million worldwide. It became the first film in the franchise and just the 46th film overall to crack the $800 million market worldwide. This past weekend, the film earned first place in China with $63.24 million in just one day. The film opened on Sunday there, with a record opening day for that market, which was close to its opening day domestic box office. The film opened in first place in Russia with $15.86 million on 1,184 screens. At this pace, the film will top $1 billion over the weekend and I can't imagine the studio won't try to make an eighth installment.
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April 9th, 2015
Furious 7 dominated the international chart with $245.05 million on 10,683 screens in 63 markets for a worldwide opening of $392.22 million. Unless the film has terrible legs, it should get to $1 billion. Speaking of $1 billion, Universal announced they reached $1 billion worldwide for the year in the earliest ever time for the studio. The previous record was May 31st, which was set in 2013. So not only did they beat the record, they crushed it. The film's best individual market was Mexico, where it earned $21.5 million on 685 screens. It also cracked $15 million in the U.K. ($18.7 million on 537); Germany ($15.9 million on 650). Additionally, the film topped $10 million in France ($11.4 million on 707); Brazil ($11.4 million on 551); Australia ($11.3 million on 255); Taiwan ($10.3 million on 80). This is an incredible run so far and could be a good omen for the upcoming summer blockbuster season.
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April 2nd, 2015
Cinderella returned to first place after a week in second. It did so with $40.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $187.7 million internationally and $337.3 million worldwide. The film opened in a number of major markets, including the U.K., where it earned first place with $5.65 million in 554 theaters. The film took $3.8 million in France and $3.7 million in Australia, while Brazil was close behind with $3.4 million. The film's debut in Spain wasn't as strong at $2.1 million, but that was still the best result of the weekend and the third best opening of the year. Meanwhile in China, the film added $12.33 million over the full week for a total of $65.92 million after three. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $400 million worldwide, which will be enough to cover its entire production budget and perhaps all of its P&A budget.
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March 12th, 2015
Last weekend was a disaster, the worst weekend at the box office so far this year. This weekend should bounce back with the opening of Cinderella. Its the first family film to come out since The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and its reviews are excellent. The other film opening wide this week is Run All Night, which is the latest Liam Neeson action film. There's not much more that needs to be said about that. This weekend last year was led by Mr. Peabody and Sherman with $21.81 million. Cinderella will crush that figure. In fact, Cinderella might make more than the top five made combined last year.
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March 12th, 2015
Jupiter Ascending returned to the international chart in first place with $25.3 million in 53 markets for a month-long total of $107.0 million internationally. This includes a first place, $23.08 million debut on 7,028 screens in China. If the film can have even middling legs in China, it will overtake its production budget on the global box office. However, it needed to make twice that to break even.
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March 10th, 2015
It was the worst weekend of the year so far with two of the three wide releases bombing compared to expectations. It was so bad, that the three wide releases combined were lower than the high end predictions for Chappie. Unfinished Business missed the Mendoza Line and will be quickly forgotten by the end of the month. Only The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has a future. Overall, the total box office was just under $90 million, which was 16% lower than last weekend. It was also 38% lower than the same weekend last year. The top five this year barely made more than the number one film from last year, 300: Rise of an Empire. The combined opening of the three new releases this year was dwarfed by the opening of Mr. Peabody and Sherman last year. Granted, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 in the year-to-date comparison, but the lead has shrunk to under 1% at $1.85 billion to $1.84 billion.
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March 5th, 2015
March begins with three wide releases. Or to be more accurate, two wide releases and a semi-wide release. Unfortunately, both wide releases are being attacked by critics. Chappie is being called a smart idea with a dumb execution. Unfinished Business is earning some of the worst reviews of the year and its buzz is really not much better than its reviews. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is earning good reviews, but its theater count is low enough that it might not reach the top five. This weekend last year, there were two $100 million hits that debuted, 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr. Peabody and Sherman. None of the three wide releases this week will get to $100 million in total. In fact, all three films combined likely won't open with as much as 300: Rise of an Empire did. It looks like 2015 will lose in the year-over-year comparison in a significant way.
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March 5th, 2015
For the third weekend in a row, Fifty Shades of Grey ruled the international box office, this time pulling in $36 million in 59 markets over the weekend for totals of $337.00 million internationally and $484.40 million worldwide. It will reached $500 million early this weekend [ Copy Ed: Just heard it crossed $500 million today with $352 million internationally and $150 million domestically for a worldwide total of $502 million]. The film opened in South Korea, but struggled earning fourth place with $1.25 million on 510 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.80 million. It might have struggled in South Korea, because by the time it opened there, the word-of-mouth has overtaken the hype. Its biggest single market is the U.K. where it has made $46.27 million, including $3.43 million on 545 screens this past weekend.
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March 3rd, 2015
As expected, Focus led the way at the box office, but sadly did so with a much lower opening weekend result than predicted. The rest of the top five were a little stronger than predicted each earning between $10 million and $12 million. That said, the overall box office was still weak, down 10% from last week to $107 million. It was also down 13% from last year. This caused 2015's lead over 2014 to drop. Granted, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by $110 million or 6.8% at $1.74 billion to $1.63 billion, so it would take a while to lose that lead at this pace.
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February 26th, 2015
The month ends with two wide releases: Focus and The Lazarus Effect. Neither film is expected to be a big hit, but at least Focus is expected to earn first place overtaking Fifty Shades of Grey. Overall, I think the box office will drop when compared to last week. Worse still, the box office looks weak when compared to last year. Last year, the box office was led by Non-Stop, while three films earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, there's a chance no film will earn $20 million. 2015 is very likely going to lose in the year-over-year comparison ending 2015's winning streak.
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February 25th, 2015
Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place internationally with $68.1 million on 10,323 screens in 58 markets for totals of $280.5 million internationally and $409.7 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it does open in South Korea this weekend. It is already the biggest hit of the year after just ten days of release and it has made enough to justify a sequel. However, its legs are definitely weak and I'm don't think the sequel will match its box office dominance.
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February 24th, 2015
While there were three new releases to reach the top ten, the top three spots were held by holdovers. As expected, Fifty Shades of Grey won the box office race, but it did so with a much lower number. McFarland, USA was the strongest of the three new releases, while The DUFF earned the best per theater average. The less said about Hot Tub Time Machine 2's debut, the better. Overall, the box office fell 45% to $119 million compared to last weekend. At first glance, this is a disaster; however, this is a post holiday weekend and last week's number one film was artificially inflated at the box office due to hype and Valentine's Day. Compared to last year, the box office was 7% higher. This helped push 2015's lead over 2015 to 8.5% or $1.60 billion to $1.48 billion.
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February 22nd, 2015
A 73% second-weekend drop won’t be enough to keep Fifty Shades of Grey out of its top spot on the weekend box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. With another $23.25 million in the bank, the erotic drama has amassed $130 million after two weekends domestically, and has now taken over $400 million worldwide.
This relative weakness in Fifty Shades' second outing isn’t a big surprise given its fervent fanbase, who are more likely to attend on the first weekend, its mediocre reviews, and the fact that last weekend was a holiday, which can increase the box office take substantially. Perhaps more to the point, taking the top spot twice and reaching $400 million is enough. Universal already has every incentive to continue the franchise.
Second and third places this weekend go to two other returning films that are also set to fall more than 50% from last weekend’s totals: Kingsman: The Secret Service will post $17.5 million for $67 million after two weekends, and The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water adds $15.5 million to take its tally to $125 million after three. While it is a substantial decrease, this is a more typical second-weekend drop.
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February 20th, 2015
Fifty Shades of Grey will again win the weekend box office race. In fact, it could make more than the three new wide releases make combined. The biggest of these three wide releases is Hot Tub Time Machine 2, but it is unfortunately earning terrible reviews. The DUFF's reviews were amazing, but it has since settled on merely good. McFarland, USA is earning the best reviews, but unfortunately its buzz is really quiet. Granted, its target audience doesn't tend to get hyped about movies, but this still isn't a good sign. This weekend last year, The LEGO Movie remained in first place with just over $30 million. This is about the same as Fifty Shades is expected to earn. If 2015 is to win, it will need to rely on depth. Since we could have seven films earning $10 million or more, that won't be an issue.
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February 19th, 2015
Fifty Shades of Grey dominated the international box office with an opening weekend of $158 million in 58 markets over the weekend for a total opening of $173.56 million. Worldwide, the film took $258.73 million during its opening weekend, which puts it just behind Taken 3 for the year. It became the biggest hit shortly after the weekend ended. The film's biggest market was in the U.K., where it made $20.90 million in 586 theaters. This is better than it opened with here, relative to the size of the two markets, so we can blame the U.K. for the success of this film. It also did incredibly well in Germany ($15.2 million on 741 screens); France ($12 million on 785); and Russia ($10.68 million on 1,105). Obviously the film is going to be turned into a franchise.
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February 18th, 2015
As expected, Fifty Shades of Grey dominated the weekend box office, while Kingsman: The Secret Service was strong in its own way. Overall, the box office earned $214 million over the three-day weekend and $247 million including Monday. Its three-day number is 41% more than last weekend. It is also 21% more than the same weekend last year. The four-day box office was 19% higher than the same weekend last year. 2015 has now opened up a 6.0% lead over 2014 at $1.45 billion to $1.37 billion.
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February 15th, 2015
Fifty Shades of Grey has overcome poor (although generally not disastrous) reviews and unusually risque material to dominate at the box office over Valentine’s Day weekend. Universal is projecting a $81.67 million three-day weekend as of Sunday morning, the second-biggest February weekend at the box office, just behind, ironically, The Passion of the Christ. Passion’s weekend was $83.8 million, and Fifty Shades could still overtake it for the best weekend of all-time in the month. Watching people suffer is apparently a thing in February.
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February 13th, 2015
Fifty Shades of Grey will win the weekend box office race and then aliens will come down to Earth and eliminate us as a species. Okay, that second part is just wishful thinking on my part. Kingsman: The Secret Service will open in a distant second place, despite earning reviews that are really good, for this time of year. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water will fit somewhere in-between the two new releases. Last year, The LEGO Movie remained in first place with $49.85 million. Fifty Shades of Grey will crush that figure, leading 2015 to an easy victory.
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February 13th, 2015
Jupiter Ascending earned first place on the international chart with $32.5 million. At first glance, this doesn't seem too bad for an opening weekend on the international chart, except the film was playing in 65 markets, so it doesn't have a lot of room to grow. Its biggest market was Russia, where it earned first place with $4.97 million on 1,900 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fourth place in South Korea with $1.67 million on 561 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.03 million.
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February 13th, 2015
The winners of our Soak Up the Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge out of Water opening weekend were...
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February 11th, 2015
Just like it did on the overall box office chart, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $15,206. This is surprisingly high compared to weekend predictions. There were two other films in the $10,000 club. Ballet 422 earned an average of $13,827 in two theaters and Old Fashioned was right behind with $12,988 in three.
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February 9th, 2015
As expected, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way at the box office; however, it did so in a much more explosive way. In fact, its opening was in the top five for February releases. The other two new releases, Jupiter Ascending and Seventh Son, did as well as expected, more or less, but that's not really a good thing. The overall weekend box office was $152 million, which was 51% more than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2015 actually came out ahead, albeit by 0.3% margin. This is less than ticket price inflation, so fewer tickets were sold, but I don't really care. Considering I thought 2015 would lose by close to $20 million, I will take any victory and celebrate it. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled ahead of 2014 by nearly $100 million at $1.17 billion to $1.08 billion. Again, it is too soon to judge how well 2015 will do, but being ahead by 8.8% is still worth noting.
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February 8th, 2015
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is wiping out the competition this weekend with a dramatic $56 million debut, enough to give it the 5th biggest weeked in February, with a chance of 4th place if it does well today. After the success of The LEGO Movie this weekend last year, there’s a good bet we’ll be seeing the first weekend in February becoming a regular landing spot for animated films. (Perhaps The Nut Job 2 will move back a few weeks next year in response?)
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February 5th, 2015
We should have a new film to top the chart, finally, as The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water looks to take top spot, although if the more pessimistic analysts are correct, American Sniper could be close behind. Jupiter Ascending is looking for a $20 million opening, so if it can surprise analysts just a little it will compete for second place. Meanwhile, Seventh Son should be happy with a spot in the top five. It will get there, but mainly due to the lack of depth at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The LEGO Movie, which earned nearly $70 million. There's a chance the top three films won't earn that much this year. Even if all three wide releases top expectations, 2015 will still have trouble matching last year's box office.
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February 4th, 2015
Running Man opened in top spot in both China and on the International chart with $37.05 million over the weekend in its native market. Films in China tend to have short legs, most of the time. There's still too much uncertainty to really predict the film's final box office numbers after just this weekend's results. On a side note, it wasn't that long ago that it would be unthinkable for a film opening in just China to finish first on the international chart. Now it is relatively common.
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February 1st, 2015
It was a record-breaking January thanks entirely to American Sniper, which set records, both during its limited release run and especially when it expanded wide. There were a couple of other films that did well, but for the most part, it was a typical January. The question is, will American Sniper boost the overall box office, which would help February, or will its effects fade as it does? There are ten wide releases in February; there are a few films that may or may not open in the top ten. Of these, there are only two that have a real shot at true box office success. The biggest film in terms of buzz is Fifty Shades of Grey, which looks so, so bad. Personally, I would rather watch The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water a hundred times than sit through just the trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey. If Fifty Shades of Grey becomes the biggest hit of the month, it will mrean the end of civilization. Because. I. Will. End. Civilization. Last February was mostly mediocre, except for The LEGO Movie which was a huge early year hit. There's no chance any film opening this month will match The LEGO Movie; the top two films likely won't match The LEGO Movie. Because of this, 2015 will need to rely on depth to come out ahead. I'm not sure how likely that will be.
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January 29th, 2015
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and Jupiter Ascending are the two bigger releases next weekend and some think the two films will be in a close race for first place. I think SpongeBob has the distinct advantage and as such it is the target film in this week's week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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