July 11th, 2017
This week, the home market is led by The Fate of the Furious, which is the number one film both in terms of worldwide box office and alphabetically. It earned well over $1 billion worldwide, but it is losing the charm the franchise thrived on during the past few installments. As for the Pick of the Week, I’m going with Underground, Season Two, or the Two-Season box set.
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July 9th, 2017
Smurfs: The Lost Village is the third theatrical release in the franchise, but it is a reboot dropping the live action elements the first two films had. Unfortunately, it had the worst box office performance in the franchise and even though it did better internationally, there likely won’t be another film in the franchise for quite a while. Is this unfortunate news? Did the franchise finally find its footing? Or was it clear it was never going to get better?
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June 20th, 2017
Summer time is usually the worst time of year on the home market and that is certainly the case this week. The biggest release of the week is Life, which only made $30 million at the box office. As for the best new release on this week’s list... I’m going to have to go with GLOW: Season One, which hits Netflix on Friday.
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April 26th, 2017
The Fate of the Furious is living fast, but plummeting just as fast down 64% to $158.1 million on 19,757 screens in 65 territories for totals of $745.03 million internationally and $908.34 million worldwide. The film is now the biggest hit of 2017 on the international chart and is behind only Beauty and the Beast on the 2017 worldwide chart. The film’s biggest opening of the past weekend came in Poland where it earned $2.7 million on 187 screens, which is the best opening for the Fast and the Furious franchise in that market. Its biggest market overall continues to be China, where it added $55.28 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $321.65 million. The is the second biggest box office for a Hollywood release in China, behind only Furious 7, which earned $390.87 million there.
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April 25th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the weekend box office chart. It held up a little better than expected with $38.41 million over the weekend; however, this was still over 60% lower than its opening weekend and the overall weekend fell over $60 million or 36% from last weekend for a total of $107 million. A lot of the blame can be pushed onto the new releases, as none of them earned a spot in the top five. Born in China was the best of the new releases earning sixth place with $4.79 million. Year-over-year, 2017 was 16% lower than 2016, but fortunately, 2017 still has an impressive $200 million lead over 2016 at $3.53 billion to $3.33 billion.
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April 22nd, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office chart on Friday with $11.2 million. This could be more than any other film will earn during the entire weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news is this still represents a decline of just over 75% from its opening Friday. This is not good by any stretch of the word, but it is also not unexpected. The film will rebound on Saturday, and earn about $35.5 million over the weekend, according to Universal, which is close to our prediction and will lift the film’s running tally to $160 million. This keeps The Fate of the Furious on pace for $200 million and the film should become the third film released in 2017 to get to that milestone. It might overtake Logan on the yearly chart, but Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 will probably get there first.
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April 19th, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated in the international chart with $433.2 million in 63 markets. This is the biggest international weekend of all time, beating the previous record holder, Jurassic World, by over $100 million. Interestingly, both of these films were released by Universal. Furthermore, the film has already topped the international totals of all but the two more recent installments in the Fast and the Furious franchise. On the downside, the international opening weekend record isn’t the most prestigious record, because it depends a lot of how wide a release a film has. For instance, The Fate of the Furious opened in all but four markets this past weekend and of the remaining markets, only Japan is a significant market. The film has the number one overall international weekend, but only broke weekend records in 20 of the 63 individual markets and only one of those markets could be considered a major market. That one market was China.
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April 18th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office this weekend, earning nearly a 60% share of the total box office. It did miss predictions, however, with “just” $98.79 million. This is the curse of great expectations. Overall, the box office rose 40% from last weekend, reaching $167 million. However, this was 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Had The Fate of the Furious matched expectations, then 2017 would have had a 5% lead over last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.37 billion and has a 7.2% lead over 2016. That will shrink as last year’s The Jungle Book’s legs will undoubtedly be better than The Fate of the Furious’s legs, but I don’t think 2017 will fall behind 2016 any time soon.
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April 16th, 2017
The Fate of the Furious is, as expected, posting great opening numbers domestically, with Universal projecting a $100.2 million opening weekend, but the real news this weekend is the record breaking in international markets. Helped by a gigantic $190 million in China—the biggest-ever three-day weekend in that territory—Fate is headed for an overseas debut of $432.2 million, according to the studio. That’s easily the biggest international weekend of all time, beating Jurassic World’s $316.7 million. It’s also ahead of the inflation-adjusted international opening for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II, which earned $314 million on its first weekend internationally, roughly equivalent to $375 million today.
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April 15th, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated at the domestic box office on Friday, earning $45.6 million. This is not the best opening-day record for the franchise—Furious 7 owns that with $67.41 million—and it is almost a third lower than the previous installment, but if it manages the same legs, it will earn just under $100 million over the weekend. Universal is estimating an opening weekend of $103.8 million. Granted, this film’s reviews are 15 points lower than Furious 7’s, and that should hurt its legs. On the other hand, both films earned a solid A from CinemaScore. In fact, every film in the franchise since Fast Five has earned an A from CinemaScore. Consistency. A drop like this is troubling, but it is more than made up for by the film’s international performance…
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April 13th, 2017
The headline isn’t 100% accurate, because let’s face it, there is no competition this week. The Fate of the Furious is the only wide release of the week (Spark was dropped to select cities.) and it will beat the nearest competition likely by over $100 million. It will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined will earn. There could be a close race for second place between The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast, but for the most part, there will be no mystery at the box office this weekend. As for this weekend last year, it was also really one-sided. The Jungle Book opened with $103.26 million, while Barbershop: The Next Cut was a distant second with $20.24 million. The Fate of the Furious will need to match this one-two punch, or at least come close, for 2017 to continue building on its lead over 2016. I’m cautiously optimistic.
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April 13th, 2017
Ghost in the Shell rose to first place with $41.3 million in 57 markets for a two-week international total of $92.8 million. The film was aided by a first place debut in China. It earned $21.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $21.49 million. It also opened in Japan with $3.2 million over the weekend. The film’s international running tally is nearly triple its domestic one and that spread will only grow. This will help the studio somewhat; however, it would need to make over $250 million internationally to have any real shot at breaking even.
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April 13th, 2017
The winners of our Smurf to the Smurf contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Smurfs: The Lost Village’s opening weekend were...
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April 11th, 2017
It was a good weekend at the box office, considering the time of year, but this was almost entirely due to holdovers. The Boss Baby earned $26.36 million, which was within a rounding of our prediction, while Beauty and the Beast was relatively close behind. This meant the best new release, Smurfs: The Lost Village, only managed third place. Furthermore, it wasn’t even close to second place. Overall, the box office fell 30% from last weekend. More importantly, it was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.15 billion becoming the fastest year to reach $3 billion. It is also 6.4% or $190 million ahead of last year’s pace. It is still early, but 2017 is starting to build up a lead that will act as a cushion when it inevitably hits a soft patch.
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April 9th, 2017
The Boss Baby will score another win at the box office this weekend, with Fox predicting a total of $26.3 million for the weekend, down 48% from its debut, and $89.4 million to date. That’s a remarkably strong second weekend, considering that Beauty and the Beast will be down virtually the same proporation—45%—in its fourth weekend. Disney’s blockbuster will do $25 million for a cume of $432 million so far domestically. With $545.1 million internationally, the film now has $977.4 million worldwide, and will pass the billion dollar mark this week.
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April 8th, 2017
There was quite a race at the box office on Friday. The Boss Baby led the way with $6.86 million for the day, putting it just ahead of Beauty and the Beast, which made $6.85 million. This is a 56% decline from the film’s opening Friday, which is a little high for a family film. Granted, its reviews are not good, but it did get an A minus from CinemaScore. It should bounce back on Saturday, but a nearly 50% drop-off to just under $26 million is likely at this point.
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April 7th, 2017
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There was an upset during Thursday’s previews, as Going in Style actually led the way with $600,000. However, demographics suggest it won’t remain in the lead for long. This is still not a great start, but it is nearly perfectly in line with expectations. The film’s reviews rose a little to 42% positive, but this still won’t help its legs. Look for an opening weekend of $10 million, more or less.
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April 6th, 2017
It is the first weekend of April and there are two and a half films opening wide this week. The widest of these is Smurfs: The Lost Village, but direct competition is going to hurt it at the box office. Going in Style is aiming to be a sleeper hit, but its reviews will likely get in the way of that. Meanwhile, The Case for Christ is opening in barely more than 1,000 theaters and it is aiming for the churchgoing crowd and no one else. On the positive side, it is Easter next weekend, so it should have good legs. Unfortunately for the new releases, it looks like The Boss Baby will have a relatively easy time repeating in first place, while Beauty and the Beast will be close behind in second. This weekend last year, The Boss opened in first place with $23.59 million, while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice was right behind with $23.36 million. This week we should have at least two films top that, perhaps even three if Smurfs: The Lost Village is on the high end of expectations. 2017 should continue to add to its lead over 2016.
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April 5th, 2017
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Beauty and the Beast completed the threepeat earning first place on the international chart with $66.5 million in 55 markets for totals of $480.8 million internationally and $874.1 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it did do really well in a number of mid-level markets. Malaysia was the best earning $2.4 million, which is the second best opening in that market this year. Kong: Skull Island earned $2.6 million during its debut there. The Netherlands managed $1.8 million over the weekend for a total opening of $2.3 million, which is the best opening of the year so far. Likewise, it had the best openings of 2017 in both New Zealand ($1.4 million over the weekend and $1.7 million including previews) and in Chile ($1.5 million / $1.6 million). It will soon become the first film of 2017 to reach $1 billion worldwide and the 14th film from Disney to reach that milestone.
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April 5th, 2017
The winners of our Give Up the Ghost contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ghost in the Shell’s opening weekend were...
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April 4th, 2017
The Boss Baby beat expectations and earned first place with $50.20 million over the weekend. The strong competition pushed Beauty and the Beast into second place, but it nearly hit $400 million and it is on pace for $500 million, so I wouldn’t feel too bad for the film. On the other hand, you can feel bad for Ghost in the Shell, because an opening of just $18.68 million on a $110 million production budget is a disaster. Overall, the box office rose 16% from last week reaching $169 million. Compared to last year, the box office rose 28%, which is very impressive. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $2.98 billion, putting it 6.1% or $170 million ahead of 2016’s pace. We are far enough into the year that a lead this big is significant. That doesn’t mean 2017 is guaranteed to come out ahead, but this is certainly reason to be optimistic.
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April 1st, 2017
March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
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March 31st, 2017
There are three wide releases opening next weekend, but only Smurfs: The Lost Village has a shot at topping the chart. Going in Style would be happy with a total of $50 million domestically, while The Case for Christ might not even open truly wide. Because of this, Smurfs: The Lost Village is the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Smurfs: The Lost Village.
April 1st is on Saturday, so we are starting our April Fools contests this week. Two of our winners will get movies from our prize pool, while one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win one of two previously reviewed movies, or be the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win either the final of two previously reviewed movies, or be the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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