Weekend estimates: Spider-Man rewrites pandemic rulebook with $253-million opening

December 19th, 2021

After two dismal years for the theatrical business, Spider-Man has returned to change the rules of the game. Again. Back in 2002, the first Spider-Man movie set an all-time record by opening with $114.8 million—becoming the first film to top $100 million at the box office in a single weekend. That was arguably the beginning of the modern era at the box office.

This weekend, Spider-Man: No Way Home may be kicking off the post-pandemic era with a gargantuan $253-million opening. That’s not just the best result of the pandemic. It’s the best by a huge margin, more than doubling the opening of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which itself significantly outperformed expectations. Even more impressively, it’s the third-best weekend of all time, behind only Avengers: Endgame ($357 million) and Avengers: Infinity War ($258 million). In fact, a good Sunday number would take it into second place on that list.

Oh, and it’s already the highest-grossing film of 2021. More...

Weekend estimates: West Side Story shows some legs with $10.5-million weekend win

December 12th, 2021

As I said on Friday, the measure of success for West Side Story is not so much how it opens as how strong its legs are. Based on its performance through this weekend, there’s cause for some mild optimism. Ahead of the weekend, our model expected an opening around $6.9 million, based on its debut in a relatively modest 2,820 theaters and current market conditions. Its $800,000 in preview earnings suggested a weekend close to $10 million was on the cards, and bumped the model’s prediction up to $8.27 million. This morning Disney announced a projected $10.5 million for the film over its opening weekend. While that’s hardly a reason for dancing in the streets, it does suggest the film will play well for a while. More...

Weekend estimates: Eternals’ good hold keeps it on top

November 14th, 2021

Eternals will, as expected, come out on top at the box office this weekend, but it’ll do so by a healthier margin than expected thanks to a decent hold, and a very slight under-performance by Clifford the Big Red Dog through the weekend. Eternals is set to earn $27.5 million, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection, which will take it to $118.8 million domestically. That makes it one of the top 10 films of 2021 already, with quite a way to run. More...

Weekend predictions: Eternals favorite to win weekend, Clifford could be close behind

November 12th, 2021

Eternals should stay top at the box office this weekend, based on our model’s Friday-morning run. But Clifford the Big Red Dog has been putting in very respectable numbers so far and could be surprisingly close to the Marvel if it holds on well through the weekend. Here’s how things stack up this morning… More...

Weekend estimates: Eternals out the gate with a strong $71 million

November 7th, 2021

The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s 26th outing is opening this weekend very much in line with similar releases in the franchise. Eternals will land with $71 million domestically, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning estimate. That’s about $4 million less than Shang-Chi earned in September, which was in turn about $5 million less than Black Widow’s $80-million opening in July. But it’s also very much in line with what Doctor Strange opened with before the pandemic. In short, the MCU looks to be doing fine. More...

Weekend predictions: Eternals’ $9.5 million in previews points to weekend in the mid-70s

November 5th, 2021

Disney’s Eternals, the latest outing for the MCU, got off to a strong start on Thursday evening, with $9.5 million in preview earnings, according to the studio. That’s a bit more than Shang-Chi’s $8.8 million, but somewhat less than the $13.2 million earned by Black Widow. That points to an opening weekend in the mid-$70 millions. More...

Weekend estimates: Shang-Chi enjoys fourth (and last) weekend win, Dune holds well internationally

September 26th, 2021

As expected, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will remain at the top of the domestic box office chart this weekend, although its fourth-weekend decline of 39% is larger than expected. Dear Evan Hansen will post a decent $7.5-million opening in second place, and is getting good reviews from its target audience. Internationally, Dune is making waves, with strong holds in several territories continuing its strong start. More...

Weekend predictions: Shang-Chi still rules as industry braces for worst weekend since May

September 24th, 2021

Dear Evan Hansen will be taking a long-shot swing at unseating Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings from the top of the chart this weekend. Our model, and the movie’s preview numbers, suggest it’ll fall some way short, giving the Marvel action movie a fourth straight weekend at the top of the chart. That’s the longest continuous run at the top since Tenet dominated the pandemic-ravaged chart in September last year (The Croods: A New Age also spent five weeks at number one, split between December and February, but didn’t have four straight weekends at the top). The limited number of major new releases since Shang-Chi came out is significantly hitting the market as a whole, and this will be the slowest weekend at the box office since Spiral’s $4.6-million second weekend was enough to give it a weekend win back on May 21. More...

Weekend estimates: Shang-Chi dominates at home, Dune hits it big internationally

September 19th, 2021

With this weekend’s two new wide releases both failing to find an audience, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will cruise to victory again at the domestic box office. The Marvel movie will rack up another $21.7 million, taking it to $176.9 million in total in North America. With a new total of $143.7 million internationally, it now has $320.6 million worldwide. Several international markets are being dominated by early releases of Dune, which is opening with $36.8 million in 24 markets on 7,819 screens this weekend, and will top the chart in virtually all of them. More...

Weekend predictions: Shang-Chi looks unstoppable

September 17th, 2021

One of this weekend’s two new wide releases will have to do much, much better than expected to challenge Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at the top of the chart this weekend. The Marvel movie should come in with something around $20 million (or possibly a bit higher), and there’s a strong possibility that will be more than double the second-placed film. If Cry Macho and CopShop both falter, Shang-Chi might even earn three or four times as much as its nearest competition. More...

Weekend estimates: Shang-Chi keeps the market afloat with $35.8-million second weekend

September 12th, 2021

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings isn’t just the biggest game in town, it’s practically the only game in town at the moment when it comes to earning dollars at the box office. The Marvel movie will earn about $35.8 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning projection, a decline of 53% from its three-day opening (a good figure these days), and will stand at $145.6 million or so in total by the end of today, making it already the fourth-highest earner at the domestic box office in 2021 with plenty more to come. Malignant’s $5.57 million box office debut will only be enough for third place this weekend and raises further questions about Warner Bros.’ strategy of releasing films simultaneously on HBO Max. More...

Weekend predictions: Shang-Chi should see off Malignant threat

September 10th, 2021

After the fantastic opening for Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings last weekend, our model is expecting a September slump at the box office this time around, with three new high-profile releases not doing enough to make up for a big drop for the Marvel superhero movie in its second weekend. The market’s best hope lies with Malignant, the supernatural horror movie from James Wan, but it’ll take a miracle to see anything like the overall business we saw over Labor Day weekend, and Shang-Chi is very unlikely to be unseated at the top of the chart. More...

Weekend estimates: Shang-Chi smashes Labor Day record with $71.4 million

September 5th, 2021

Disney is projecting that Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will open with $71.4 million over three days and $83.5 million over the four-day Labor Day weekend, making it the second-best new release of the pandemic era and smashing the Labor Day weekend record held since 1999 by The Sixth Sense. At the very end of a stop-start Summer, this is arguably the best result we’ve seen at the box office. And maybe, just maybe, a sign that studios will see the benefits of holding off on releasing films to streaming on opening weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Candyman lands with strong $22.37-million opening

August 29th, 2021

Candyman went into the weekend a firm favorite for top spot at the box office after posting $1.9 million in previews on Thursday. That number pointed to a weekend just shy of $20 million, but the film posted an excellent $9.14 million on Friday, and will hold on for an opening weekend projected at $22.37 million by Universal this morning. While that’s only the third-best weekend in August, after Free Guy’s $28.4-million debut and The Suicide Squad’s $26.2-million opening, it comfortably out-performs our model’s prediction, and it gives the theatrical market a welcome, and much-needed, boost. More...

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings trailer

April 27th, 2021

MCU action movie starring Simu Liu, Tony Leung, and Awkwafina opens in theaters on September 3. Full movie details… More...